Category: Gambling and Casinos

Moderate gambling, like moderate alcohol use, is an accepted part of our culture and causes no problems. As with alcohol use, however, gambling to excess is a common weakness that may lead to serious security problems.

Compulsive gambling, or pathological gambling as most psychiatrists prefer to call it, is an inability to stop gambling even when one recognizes that gambling is causing serious financial, family, work, or other problems.

Compulsive gambling parallels alcohol and drug addiction in many ways. Compulsive gamblers lose control over their behavior and commonly lie and cheat in order to continue their gambling. They frequently try, unsuccessfully, to cut down or quit.

Compulsive gambling does not involve use of a psychoactive substance, but the “action” which compulsive gamblers crave is an aroused, euphoric state comparable to the “high” sought by drug users. This aroused state is accompanied by changes in brain chemistry similar to those caused by alcohol or drugs. There may be a “rush,” often characterized by sweaty palms, rapid heart beat, and nausea which is experienced during the period of anticipation.

Alcoholics and drug abusers develop “tolerance” for their drug of choice and then must increase their consumption in order to feel the same effects. Similarly, compulsive gamblers develop “tolerance” for the “action” and must increase the size of their bets or the odds against them to create the same amount of excitement.

About 2 1/2% of the adult population now has some degree of gambling problem. The rates of compulsive and problem gambling among 16 and 17 year olds are similar to those for adults.

The key difference between compulsive or problem gambling and social gambling is self-control. Each social gambling session usually lasts for a set period of time and involves pre-determined spending limits. It typically occurs with friends or colleagues rather than alone. The player gains satisfaction whether he/she wins or loses.

The key to gambling is money management and gambling in moderation. If you think you have a problem, seek help.

Compulsive gamblers tend to be bright, energetic, competitive, adventuresome individuals. In short, they may have the characteristics of an otherwise ideal employee. There are no obvious physical signs. Unlike some drug or alcohol abusers, there are no needle marks, breath odor, slurred speech or staggering gait. Like alcoholics and drug addicts, compulsive gamblers typically deny any problem until they hit rock bottom and are desperate for help.

One of the clearest indicators of a serious gambling problem is borrowing money to gamble or to pay off gambling debts. This is the heart of the security issue, which is the gambler’s need for money. Another significant indicator is any effort to conceal one’s gambling from spouse, children, friends, or co-workers, e.g., hiding betting slips or lottery tickets. This indicates some shame or embarrassment about one’s behavior.

Other indicators of a potential or actual gambling problem include: gambling as a way of escaping from problems or relieving feelings of helplessness, guilt, anxiety, or depression; needing to gamble with increasing amounts of money in order to achieve the desired excitement; and repeated unsuccessful efforts to control, cut back, or stop gambling

A study that compared the gambling practices of compulsive gamblers with social gamblers found that the single most striking difference was the amount of leisure time devoted to gambling. Compulsive gamblers were more than five times as likely as social gamblers to devote at least one quarter of their leisure time to gambling or preparation for gambling.

Children of problem gamblers are at greater risk than others for developing a gambling problem themselves. One study found that 50% of the children of pathological gamblers were also pathological gamblers. In one group of 50 female members of Gamblers Anonymous, 40% reported growing up in a household where one or both parents were addicted to either alcohol or gambling.

Gambling is an addiction and if you think you are a compulsive gambler you should seek out professional help.

WHAT ARE BETTING EXCHANGES? – AN EXPLANATION AND BASIC TACTICS.
Betting exchanges online were only introduced a few years ago,by British firm Betfair,and have grown so rapidly,that they now,not the bookmakers,set the prices for most sporting events.The bookmakers have to consult and respond to what is happening on the exchanges.Even if you have never had a bet on the exchanges,you should be very happy about their existance.A visible example is the prices on offer in British horseracing,whereas at one time it was most unusual to see an outsider at odds of more than 33/1,but now many runners are of ten returned with starting prices of 66/1+,this is entirely due to the exchanges.Not so obvious is the day to day tightening of percentages on all betting events which benefit all punters.Despite this you can still get far better odds on the exchanges,typically 20% better according to the exchanges themselves.

Betfair is the dominant betting exchange,with Betdaq a good alternative.There is very little competition – is this a bad thing ?.Absolutely not.If you think about it,the best exchange is going to be the one with the most punters,both bettors and layers.The exchanges.don’t actually do anything !.They just open the doors,maintain the site,but it is up to the people who enter and participate who create everything themselves.

HOW DO YOU BET?.You can back anything on the exchanges,you can lay anything on the exchanges,and you can back and lay the same selection.In fact this is the best approach,if you can back a horse(we will use horseracing in most examples,but could be any sport)at,lets say 12.00(11/1)and then lay a horse at,lets say 9.00(8/1),you are now in the happy position of not being able to lose.Lets say you bet in $10 units(you can have much smaller,or larger bets if you so wish),so if the horse wins,you will win $110,but of course you have to pay the person who bet the horse at 9.00 with you.In this example you win $110 and pay $80,meaning a profit of $30.If the horse loses it has cost you nothing,you bet $10,you layed $10,and in effect you have had a free bet !.Don’t worry about trying to keep track of your bets,the screen will automatically show you what your liabilities are for each horse – green for profit,red for loss.Also bear in mind that the exchanges have to make money somewhere,and they charge commission on winning bets,nothing on losing bets.The commission is usually 5%,but this figure falls as you accumulate loyalty points.For presentation purposes decimals are used for prices,this allows the minutest of price changes to be catered for,but it is awkward at first for punters who are used to fractional odds,but you soon get used to adding stake into prices displayed.Some examples – 10.00 = 9/1, 14.00=13/1, 4.5=7/2, 2.1=11/10 etc.

THINGS CAN GO WRONG.Sometimes you are going to take a price,with the view to laying at lower price,only to be dismayed to see the price drift alarmingly.What to do now?.Well don’t panic,not yet anyway!.You have got three choices.Firstly i assume you fancied the selection,so maybe just let it run,after all just because it drifts,it does not mean it can’t win.Secondly you may want to lay it at a bigger price than you backed it.In other words,hope it gets beat and you finish level.If it does win you will have to pay the difference between the price you backed,and the price you laid.This is the worst option – it is infuriating to pay out money on a selection you fancied originally.Thirdly,you can also back horses(again i refer to horseracing,but applies to any sporting event)in running,during the race.This i feel is the best option.But what price do you offer ?.You can dive in and out of the race offering different prices as the event unfolds,or you can offer high price or low price and leave it.Well should it be high or low?.It depends!.If you offer a high price(by high i don’t mean higher than you backed it)you are more liable to get a buyer,as most horses,or teams,at some time get into contention sometime during an event.So by laying high you could get out of trouble and finish level.However finishing level is not too exciting,so offer low price in running.If you take this option you can turn a bad position into a decent win,even if your selection loses – just so long as the selection flatters sometime during the event.For example you back horse,$10 at 9.00,and it drifts – wait for the off and offer at about 3.75 for $20.It doesnt have to win,just be a challenger at some time and hopefully someone will take it on.If it wins,you win $80 and pay $55 = $25 profit.If it loses,you lose $10,and collect $20 = $10 profit.If the selection never shows,well no one is going to take up your bet,and you have done your money this time,but at least you went down fighting.

Bets that have already lost,but still available.Sometimes the odds available may look unbelievably good,if that is the case there is probably a good reason.Maybe somebody in the know has access to information that you don’t.It can be anything – change in going,team struck down with flu virus,injury that may mean player may not even participate,a non trier,and on the very rare occassion corruption.So if a fancied selection drifts alarmingly,beware,there may be a reason for it.

Digital television is delayed – often you will see say 1000(999/1) appear suddenly on the screen,this is because a horse has just fallen,or team scored etc.If you are watching on digital tv you will not be aware of this fact for maybe 2 seconds.Not long ,but still time enough for transactions to take place.

Arbitrage between exchanges – forget it.This is when you can back on one exchange and lay on another.I have no doubt that if you work at it you can make a small profit,but it will be small.The exchanges always converge pretty quickly,and the gaps will always be tiny.The only way to get “value”perhaps is to note a tightening of price on the exchanges,and back selection with a bookmaker – if the price stays solid or reduces further,the bookmakers odds will almost certainly have to constrict.These tactics are exactly opposite to what used to happen just a few years ago,when you would back on the exchanges knowing that their prices would have to converge with the bookmakers prices.This is no longer the case,the exchanges,that is the punters themselves now set the prices.

You haven’t the time to sit at computer all day ?.To get full value out of exchanges,you really need to be at that blasted computer screen for an unhealthy amount of time,but as we all know it can be very tiring,and a bit boring.However you can still play the exchanges.Remember you set your own prices,and if nobody wants to play with you,the bets just expire,with no cost to you at all,no matter how many bets you leave on the exchange.So,if you are horse player,or sports bettor – get in early – as soon as the markets open.You can then leave your bets open,say overnight for horseracing,and maybe several days for other sporting events.Your tactics should be to leave MANY MANY bets – all at,what appears even to yourself ridiculously optimistic prices.Believe me,you will be amazed at some of the bets you leave that are taken on – remember you may leave 30 or 40 bets for lets say,tomorrows racing,and if 3 or 4 are layed you are already in the driving seat.You can either let them run at fabulous odds(recommended!)or you can lay bet to other punters now,either with a view to covering your bet or making definate profit now.You can of course use the same tacics for laying bets.

The bigger the odds the more value you get.It can be hard to grasp,but you get better value the bigger the odds.The movement on the favourites is minute – there are legions of buyers ready to pounce as soon as it moves.The bigger the odds there are of course fewer buyers,this can lead to volatility on a grand scale.Volatilty is what the shrewd punter likes most of all.It is not unusual to get odds of approaching 200/1 for a horse that may be showing just 33/1 in the morning racing press and starting price.This happens because bookmakers do not parcitipate in this end of the market,they are watching,and backing the fancied horses which are the ones that will inflict the damage to them.Also the big hitters usually back the fancied horses to big stakes and lay the outsiders to small stakes.So both bookmakers and big players concentrate on the fancied horses,this leaves room for you to operate successfully.Most races are won by fancied horses,but you only have to win very rarely at these odds to show a very healthy profit.Also remember once you have this huge price,you can lay your selection in running and still make a profit whatever the result.

These are just basic tactics to be employed on the exchanges,and you will develop your own tactics as you get comfortable with the systems.However make no mistake the exchanges are the best thing to happen to regular punters – ever .

How Much of An Element is Weather in Handicapping?

Even those few football fans who don’t gamble surely are aware of Brett Favre’s remarkable winning streak in sub 34 degree weather or Tampa’s ineptitude when the kickoff temperature is below 40 on the archaic fahrenheit scale. It though is not just fair but imperative for handicappers to note most of those Favre games were at home where he was rarely beaten and Tampa’s incompetence was compiled when they were a doormat playing on the road.

As far as weather benefitting one team or the other, more times than not the old adage of both teams having to play in the same conditions bodes true. This is not to say though weather won’t decide the spread or SU outcome. Many teams are built for their home field and extreme weather in a battle of dichotomous styles will without question be a factor.

Come playoff time and even late in the regular season we will hear pundits and handicappers question the ability of dome teams to win or even make it to the Super Bowl. Atlanta making it in 1999 and the Rams winning it all in 2000 did take some steam out of those convinced of a dome field disadvantage but both teams were able to avoid having to play in nasty outdoor conditions.

There is one major factor missing from the aforesaid critics. We would actually agree that dome teams clearly built for dome play are at a huge disadvantage in nasty outdoor conditions. We certainly don’t disagree that the Colts horrible defense needs to be improved and nobody can question the genius of Bill Belichick. But the Colts offense is much more high powered than they are great and we question the Colts ability to beat any team in northern winter weather. The same was true for Minnesota in the Randy Moss era.

The exception to the “both teams play in the same conditions” rule would be high powered offenses.
Philadelphia Eagles linebacker Ike Reese said. “Sloppy-weather games are tailor-made for running teams. When you have to put the ball up, you’re going to have to worry about sloppy passes, balls getting fumbled.”

The famed Dolphins of the early 70s which went to the Super Bowl three straight years, winning two including the perfect season are a perfect example of a team that could win in any conditions. In fact un-Miami like conditions fit perfectly into their smash mouth ball control style.

Teams custom built for their climate or stadium of course will be most effected by conditions that deviate from their comfort zone. But a road team’s style is more quantifying than their city of origin or whether or not there is a roof on their stadium insofar as handicapping weather conditions.

The single biggest mistake handicappers make is thinking potential weather advantages benefit mostly warm climate teams playing in northern cities. No less of an authority on the subject would be Dan Marino. He played his high school and college ball in Pittsburgh and spent a Hall-of-Fame career in Miami, but with many a road game in New York, Foxborough, Buffalo and many other cold-weather cities.

Marino states emphatically that is tougher for a cold weather team to play in a hot weather city than visa versa. Ask any chad hanging seasoned citizen New York transplant in south Florida and they will tell you there is an acclimation period adjusting to the much warmer weather. But eventually one gets quite used to it.

Fans of international soccer will note how for example the USA soccer team admits the brutal conditions of Guatemala and the Central American countries is a huge disadvantage for the Yankees and adaptation is difficult.

As a point of fact, it’s easier for the heavily padded American football players to compensate for cold conditions than it is for the blistering heat of Florida, Texas or Arizona. Yet the handicapper seems to concern himself more so with the December frozen tundra. This is not the case at the Center of the Handicapping Universe.