Category: Gambling and Casinos

About this time two years ago, I watched as on one of the fine betting sites there was a not-so-subtle back and forth of the validity of the so-called zigzag NBA playoff system.

The method simply says go with the team off of a loss. A critic came back after the first week or so gleaming over the fact the technique zagged and sagged more than it zigged. It lost money. Then as the playoffs went on, the proponent got the last laugh while the cynic wrote articles on other topics telling you he is smarter than everyone else.

Having been in the industry since the 1980s and having been a supporter of computer systems since prominent statistician Dr. Mike Orkin wrote his Pointspread Analyzer software, where does Center of the Handicapping Universe stand?

We agree with the theory, but less so the etched-in-stone considerations. First of all, let us give a quick refresher of the difference. A system can be measured objectively because the parameters are concrete. The zigzag is an example. Going with a double digit favorite off a single digit loss would be another hypothetical.

Of course there can be modest variances depending on when and where a database gathers lines, but over any statistically significant period it does not make a huge difference.

A theory is much like a system but does not have objective parameters. Our theory is the better the team is that the zigzag system favors and the bigger the margin the loss was, the more compelling it is to “go with the team off a loss.”

True one could come up with a system to measure our upgrading of the methodology. An example would be going with a team with a winning percentage of .575 or higher off a loss of eight or more. The problem is we believe a mental sliding scale combining and most importantly, weighing the two factors works best. It allows for a mixing and matching of the two parameters.

For example, this year as in most years, it would not apply or would only be weighed slightly if we are talking about the bottom three seeds in each conference off a loss. There is a reason they are called “mismatches”.

No. 4 versus five and the next three rounds of the playoffs (barring huge first round upsets), it is weighed much heavier. Remember we told you the mocker grew conspicuously quieter as the postseason went on. Now you know why.

It’s one of those theories that almost make too much sense. During the regular season of every sport we remind you of the Golden Rule to not merely go with the “team that needs it more” if said team is fighting just to make the playoffs.

We call attention to the fact if a team were proficient at winning “must win” games they would not be playing in must-win games late in the year.

Conversely, a one through five seed, especially as the playoffs go deeper, has shown the ability to rebound from adversity and respond when their backs are to the wall.

To the handicapper there is a titanic difference between desperate elite teams and equally desperate inferior teams playing in a crucial contest. It’s like the difference between seeing Jennifer Lopez and Rosie O’Donnell in a string bikini.

Okay, I don’t follow the analogy myself, but the exemplification of the distinction is infallible. From a handicapping standpoint one can’t measure the success of the zigzag if Phoenix coming off a loss is given the same weight (no pun intended Rosie) as Washington or Golden State following a setback.

Likewise, the margin of the loss is applicable for at least two obvious reasons. As we have said many times, nothing affects public perception more than the last game they have seen. It’s not uncommon for a blowout in the previous game to influence an opening line by 2-3 points and more times than not, the closing line by more.

Plus, no matter how motivated and well-coached a squad is, it defies human nature to approach a game with as much vengeance off a 22-point win as it is for the team off the huge setback.

So to friends and foes alike of zigzag, a .700 or better team off a loss is not even close to being the same as the below .520 teams zigging. Nor is mindset the same for a team that lost a game that went down to the wire the same as one that got humiliated on national television.

Millions of kids around the world every day pick up a basketball and spend an inordinate amount of time trying to get the round ball in the basket and some become very good at it. Most kids however find shooting to be boring and would rather try all those fancy dribbles and spectacular dunks that bring the crowd to their feet.

Game 4 of the NBA finals will be contested in South Beach tonight and on the court will be several millionaires applying their trade. Seven foot giants like O’Neal, Nowitzkie, Mourning and Dampier can slam the ball into the hoop without dropping a bead of sweat, yet put them on the foul line and with the exception of Nowitzkie, the chances of them making even 1 of 2 is not very good!

In Game 1 when the Mavericks won 90-80 the Miami Heat were just 7-19 (36.8) from the foul line and only O’Neal and Wade attempted any shots, while the Mav’s were 20-26 (76.9) and Dirk was 6-6. The margin of victory was 10 points and the Mavericks outscored the Heat 20-7 (13 points) from the line.

In Game 2 the Mav’s won 99-85 and the Heat were 20-32 (62.5) while the Mavericks were 23-28 (.82.1) and O’Neal 1-7 while Dirk was 10-11. Even though the Mavericks only outscored the Heat by 3 at the line, their percentage made was far higher 82% to 62% and it had a huge affect on the outcome.

Game 3 which was the first victory of the series for the Heat saw the Mavericks have for them, an atrocious night at the free throw line. Dallas was 18-26 (69.2) and Dirk was 10-12, but one of those misses cost them a chance at overtime. Meanwhile the Heat shot just 58% but actually outscored the Maverick 20-18 at the line and those 2 points were the margin of victory.

While the experts all try and explain how the Mavericks Eric Dampier is doing a great job controlling O’Neal, the fact of the matter is he was 4-6 from the free throw line, including 2-2 in the dying moments when the game was on the line.

The point spread yesterday opened on most betting shops at Miami -4-3.5 and was quickly hammered down to Miami -2. When a line moves that much 36 hours before a game, it is a fair assumption that the money being wagered is sharp money by professional bettors. As game time nears the public or recreational bettor will get involved and many bet with their heart not their head.

With so many close finishes in this years playoffs, don’t be surprised if this game comes down to the wire again. Just look at who makes the most free throw and that will give you the ultimate winner!

Bob Acton

Online Sports Betting

My, oh my, how time flies as it seems like yesterday that the National Leagues were the big bully on the block and the American League was snickered at by baseball insiders. Not these days however, as the AL heads into the Mid-Summer Classic winner of nine straight contests and also having not lost a World Series game in eight straight contests.

If we start at the catcher’s position you will notice a huge disparity in production between the NL’s Paul Lo Duca and the Braves’ Brian McCann. They have combined for 9 homeruns and 59 RBI’s while the AL duo of Pudge Rodriguez and AL batting leader Joe Mauer have 14 and 84.

At first base the NL should have a large advantage as they trot out Albert Pujols (29-76) against a designated hitter who will be forced to play defense in Big Papi David Ortiz (31-87). Ortiz is also coming off a 19 inning marathon on Sunday and the home run derby.

Second base is not exactly filled with marquis names as the AL will have light hitting Mark Loretta .305 (3-37) going up against Phillies’ Chase Utley who has been awesome this year with (16-53).

I think shortstop is a tossup in the AL with Derek Jeter .345 (5-52) while the NL has Edgar Renteria who will replace Mets standout Jose Reyes.

Actually, the left side of the infield is an all Big Apple affair as A. Rod .282 (19-65) opposes hot hitting David Wright .316 (20-74).

Needless to say, it is the fountain of youth in the NL hooking horns with the big game performers of the AL such as Jason Bay, Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Beltran. The AL counters with Magglio Ordonez, Vladamir Guerrero and Ichiro Suzuki, 48 homeruns and 158 RBI’s.

The real winners in this extravaganza are the residents of Pittsburgh who are certainly happy that the NFL season is right around the corner. Their Pirates are the worst team in baseball with a record of 30 win and 60 losses and are well on their way to a 100 + loss season.

Prediction:

The NL has plenty to play for and Tuesday night will be when they temporarily get well as they beat the AL 9-5. Time to Cash!

Bob Acton

Online Sports Betting

Last week I warned you that the NBA Finals would be won at the charity stripe and that comment has been money in the bank. Especially in game 5 last night, when Dwayne Wade literally won the game with two foul shots in the last 1.9 seconds.

As of this moment there have been 5 games and let’s take a look at the statistics! Game 1 was won by Dallas and they made 20-26 shots to Miami’s 7 of 19. In game 2 the Mavericks won again and the Mavs won and were 23-28 from the line while Miami was 20-32.

Game 3 was in Miami and the Heat won and were 20-34 while Dallas was 18-26 and in game 4 another Heat win, Miami was 23-36 and Cuban’s boys 21-27. Game 5 saw the Heat win as we mentioned and they were a whopping 32-49 while Dallas was 21-25, in fact Wade himself had as many attempts and makes as Dallas!

These finals are becoming like all the reality shows on television in that they are so removed from reality that it is humorous. The referees are clearly intimidated in the home building and the best proposition bet is that the home team will attempt more free throws. Furthermore the NBA czar David Stern also tilted the outcome in the direction of Miami last night by suspended Jerry Stackhouse for his bump of Shaq.

Now the scene shifts back to the Lone Star State and the Texans are ready for a lynching and Stern may want to watch this game from the comfort of his home. After last nights game billionaire owner Mark Cuban attacked the scorers table and stared down the commissioner, as well as screamed at official Joe DeRosa. Cuban should be looking at a huge penalty, but I’m not sure if Stern has the balls to incite the Dallas rioters any further.

The bottom line is that Dallas is 4 of 5 with the point spread in this series, gets the home court and another double digit is points with the return of Stackhouse. The line had already been established at Mavs -6 and that incidentally is the highest number hung in any game to date. The linemakers realize that Dallas is the better team, are at home and will get to the foul line more.

They need to get some two way action and they will with public money and recreational bettors, who figure another thrilling finish is about to take place. This will not occur!

Have you ever watch an old western movie where the bad guys go into the saloon and grab some innocent dude and tie him to rope hooked up to a horse drawn wagon. Then they proceed to take this guy for a disturbing and torturous journey.

This is akin to what will transpire in American Airlines West tomorrow as the Mavericks will deliver an old fashion beating and easily cover the spread!

Bob Acton

Online Sports Betting