This Saturday's Grade 2 Starlet Stakes offers the chance for any of six 2-year-old fillies to earn points on the “Road to the Kentucky Oaks” and sets the stage for their 2024 campaigns.
The field is led by Chatalas, who won the G2 Chandelier Stakes in October before a ninth of 12 finish last month in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. Another previous stakes winner is Nothing Like You, who captured the Desi Arnaz Stakes last month.
Two of the group of six fillies – Grazia and Great Forty Eight, are hoping to make the jump from maiden winners to stakes winners, which is not as difficult as it may seem at this time of year. The remaining two, Flynn's Chance and Pacific Rose, are both trying for the rare feat of earning their first career wins in a stakes race.
Top contenders:
Grazia is one of two fillies in the field trained by Bob Baffert, who is usually loaded with talented colts and fillies in the fall every year. She won her only start, on November 12, at the shorter distance of six furlongs, and she did so with the maturity of a horse that has a lot of mental ability to go along with physical talent. In that race, Grazia sat in second behind the pacesetter for the first quarter mile, engaged with that horse on the far turn, then burst clear by two lengths with an eighth of a mile to run, before coasting home. The 89 
Equibase Speed Figure earned isn't the highest in the field, but we can assume it's going to improve markedly because Grazia is on the same pattern as 2022 Starlet winner Faiza, also trained by Baffert. Faiza had won her only start prior to this race last year, earning an 84 figure, which improved to 92 winning the race. Assuming similar improvement for Grazia, we can expect an effort worthy of a 97 figure which is more than good enough to win this year's Starlet.
That being said, first Grazia has to get by the other Baffert trainee in the field, Nothing Like You, who has won two races in a row. The first of the two was a mile race around two turns in October, with a 90 figure which might have been higher as she won by six and one-half lengths. Next, Nothing Like You cut back in distance to seven furlongs for the Desi Arnaz Stakes, winning by a nose with a strong late rally to improve to a 93 figure. In 2021, Eda won the Starlet (for Baffert) off a win in the Desi Arnaz. She gets the ground saving rail for the Starlet and if she improves by a similar margin as in her last start, Nothing Like You would earn a 96 figure very similar to how fast Grazia might run, leading to a fantastic battle for top honors.
Chatalas proved she belongs at the level when leading from start to finish winning the Chandelier Stakes in October at this mile and one-sixteenth distance. She was jostled hard at the start in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies one month later and never found good position, checking in ninth of 12. We can make the case that effort can be forgiven, and that her Chandelier effort is the one she can repeat today. She earned a 90 figure in that race and even though she led all the way, in her debut two races earlier Chatalas rallied strongly from third so she may not be a need the lead type. As such, we can't discount her chances to succeed in this field.
The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Flynn's Chance (75), Great Forty Eight (79) and Pacific Rose (86).
Win contenders, in preference/probability order:
Grazia
Nothing Like You
Chatalas
Starlet Stakes – Grade 2
Race 9 at Los Alamitos Race Course
Saturday, December 9, 2023 – Post Time 7:30 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Sixteenth
Two Year Old Fillies
Purse: $200,000
The post Equibase Analysis: Grazia May Play Role Of ‘Other Baffert’ For Starlet Upset appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.
