Newbury Coral Challow Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) 15.00
No Drama This End has shown impressive recent form, winning his last two starts in Grade 2 company at Sandown and Cheltenham.
He handled soft ground well in those victories, quickening clear in good style.
This represents a step up, but his experience at this level and fitness edge make him the standout.
He has won at Warwick on soft previously, and similar tracks suit his strong-travelling style.
Kalkbrenner ran a close second over course and distance last time out at Newbury, beaten a head by Klimt Madrik on soft ground.
He previously won comfortably at Ffos Las on soft, showing he relishes testing conditions.
The form from that Newbury run looks solid, and he should confirm placings now on level terms.
His experience over hurdles and class suggest he can run a big race.
Klimt Madrik scored a narrow victory over course and distance at Newbury last time, holding off Kalkbrenner on soft ground.
That was a step up from his earlier fourth at Ffos Las on soft, where he was behind the same rival.
He has fitness on his side but may struggle to reverse form with Kalkbrenner without the weight advantage.
His experience is limited, but he handles good to soft well.
Etna Bianco impressed when winning at Ascot on good ground recently, pulling clear in good fashion.
He ran a solid third at Cheltenham on good to soft before that, suggesting he can act on similar going.
This is a tougher assignment, but his progressive profile and jumping fluency are positives.
No previous form at Newbury, but Ascot win shows he handles undulating tracks.
Montemares remains unbeaten after two hurdle starts, winning at Market Rasen on good to soft and Hereford on good.
He showed a good attitude to battle clear last time, and as a four-year-old, he has scope for improvement.
Limited experience is a concern in this grade, but his fitness and adaptability to ground are encouraging.
No course form, but Market Rasen win indicates he copes with similar conditions.
Tiptoptim won readily at Ludlow on good ground last time, following a close second at Uttoxeter on good.
He has consistent form, including a third at Plumpton on good to soft earlier.
Upped in class here, he may need to find more, but his stamina and jumping are assets.
Fitness is not in doubt, and he handles varied ground.
Starzand is two from two under rules, winning at Ffos Las on soft over hurdles and in a bumper on good.
Those victories came in lesser company, but he showed a good turn of foot.
This represents a significant rise in grade, and he may lack the experience for this test.
Handles soft ground well based on Ffos Las form, similar to Newbury’s profile.
Giantsgrave ran third at Lingfield on good to soft last time, beaten narrowly in a maiden hurdle.
He previously won a bumper at Ffos Las on soft, showing promise.
Still lightly raced, but this looks a tough ask against stronger rivals.
Fitness is there, but class may be an issue on testing ground.
Simulation Results:
Order of finishes based on win counts:
No Drama This End, Kalkbrenner, Klimt Madrik, Etna Bianco, Montemares, Tiptoptim, Starzand, Giantsgrave.
Percentage chances for each horse: No Drama This End 39.96%, Kalkbrenner 18.36%, Klimt Madrik 10.42%, Etna Bianco 9.56%, Montemares 7.56%, Tiptoptim 5.80%, Starzand 4.72%, Giantsgrave 3.62%.
Equivalent fractional odds: No Drama This End 3/2, Kalkbrenner 9/2, Klimt Madrik 17/2, Etna Bianco 19/2, Montemares 12/1, Tiptoptim 16/1, Starzand 20/1, Giantsgrave 26/1.
The best bet is No Drama This End.
The two value selections are Kalkbrenner (live 5/1 versus calculated 9/2) and Klimt Madrik (live 11/1 versus calculated 17/2).
Steamer bets are Kalkbrenner and Tiptoptim.
No Drama This End fits almost every key trend perfectly.
He is aged six, which aligns with eleven of the last twelve winners.
He won his last run at Sandown within the last fifty days.
Although his last run was not in the Hyde Novices Hurdle, he did win that race earlier in the season, adding to his class credentials.
He lacks previous course form at Newbury but has strong distance form with two wins over nineteen to twenty-one furlongs.
His hurdle form is excellent with five runs and two wins.
He holds the highest official rating at one hundred and forty-three, exceeding the one hundred and thirty-six threshold that ten of twelve winners met.
He has two previous Grade Two wins, matching the profile of seven of twelve winners.
His season form shows three runs with two wins.
Klimt Madrik matches many trends well.
He is aged six.
He won his last run at Newbury within fifty days.
His last run was not the Hyde but delivered a course victory here.
He has two previous runs at Newbury with one win.
He has two runs and one win over the distance.
He has three hurdle runs with one win.
His rating is one hundred and twenty-nine, below one hundred and thirty-six.
No Grade Two wins.
Season form includes two runs and one win.
Kalkbrenner aligns with several important trends.
He is aged six.
He finished second on his last run at Newbury within fifty days, not a win as ten of twelve had.
The horse’s last run was not in the Hyde Novices’ Hurdle.
He has one previous run at Newbury without a win.
Two runs and one win over distance.
Three hurdle runs and one win.
Rating one hundred and thirty-four, just shy of one hundred and thirty-six.
No Grade Two wins.
Three season runs with one win.
Etna Bianco fits a solid number of trends.
He is aged six.
He won his last run at Ascot within fifty days.
The horse’s last run was not in the Hyde Novices’ Hurdle.
No previous Newbury form.
One run and win over distance.
Three hurdle runs and one win.
Rating one hundred and twenty-eight.
No Grade Two wins.
Three season runs with one win.
Montemares meets some trends but misses on age.
He is aged four, with only one of twelve winners younger than five.
He won his last run at Market Rasen within fifty days.
The horse’s last run was not in the Hyde Novices’ Hurdle.
No Newbury form.
Two runs and two wins over distance.
Two hurdle runs and two wins.
Rating one hundred and twenty-six.
No Grade Two wins.
Two season runs with two wins.
Tiptoptim matches various trends but exceeds the fifty-day last run window.
He is aged six.
He won his last run at Ludlow but fifty-three days ago.
The horse’s last run was not in the Hyde Novices’ Hurdle.
No Newbury form.
One run and win over distance.
Three hurdle runs and two wins.
Rating one hundred and twenty-four.
No Grade Two wins.
Two season runs with one win.
Starzand fits some profiles but falls short on recency.
He is aged six.
He won his last run at Ffos Las but sixty-two days ago.
The horse’s last run was not in the Hyde Novices’ Hurdle.
No Newbury form.
One run and win over distance.
Two hurdle runs and two wins.
Rating one hundred and twenty-two.
No Grade Two wins.
Only one season run with one win.
Giantsgrave aligns with fewer trends, notably lacking a distance win.
He is aged six.
He finished third on last run at Lingfield within fifty days, not a win.
The horse’s last run was not in the Hyde Novices’ Hurdle.
No Newbury form.
One run over distance without a win, missing the perfect record of twelve winners.
Two hurdle runs and one win.
Rating one hundred and twenty.
No Grade Two wins.
Two season runs with one win.
In order of preference based on matching the trends: No Drama This End, Klimt Madrik, Kalkbrenner, Etna Bianco, Montemares, Tiptoptim, Starzand, Giantsgrave.
