Author: horse-racing-free-tips

Now that we have put the Barry Bonds/ Babe Ruth blah, blah, blah to sleep, I think it’s time that we sat back and wagered a few bucks on our favorite MLB team. Parity is here and every one of the six divisions is up for grabs this year and handicapping these teams, takes patience and talent.

Let’s start with the glamour division and of course I am referring to the American League East where the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox have been trading punches since the opening week of April and George’s boys are now sitting in the penthouse.

Lurking down in the lobby are the Toronto Blue Jays who have fought off injuries to their starting pitching staff, with superb hitting and are 32-25 and are just three games back. Toronto has made it clear from the get go, that they will spend money during the season in order to contend.

In the AL Central my 9-1 betting bonanza and that would be the 2005 Chicago White Sox are scuffling a bit after a torrid start and presently trail the Motown Detroit Tigers. The Tigers began the first 50 games under Jim Leyland in spectacular fashion, but injuries are beginning to hit them, with the latest being to Pudge Rodriguez.

At 28-29 the Cleveland Indians will make a move at some point and placing a few bucks on them, could provide you with a nice return on your dollar. The AL West with Texas, Oakland, Seattle and Los Angeles is a crapshoot, with only 5.5 games separating the VIP section and the cheap seats. The first place Rangers incidentally are the only team in the West with a winning mark in games played within the division and against the powerful AL East and you cannot ignore that vital gambling statistic.

The New York Mets like their neighbors the Yankees like to throw the money around and they sit atop the NL East presently, but the Phillies and Braves can almost reach out and touch them. With 14 straight division titles, I certainly would think about a wagering a few bucks on them to win once again.

The Cardinals are suddenly trying to ward off the Cincinnati Reds who are getting healthy and pounding the ball. The Cardinals meanwhile have all kids of injury issues with Pujols and ace Chris Carpenter does not look stable.

Just like their counterparts in the AL West, the NL West Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Padres, Giants and Rockies are in a fierce battle for supremacy. Just six games separate the top and bottom, with Arizona leading the pack. The Dodgers are getting superb play out of Garciaparra and if their veterans can stay healthy, watch out!

Bob Acton

Current baseball betting lines

A few years back we wrote an article on the importance of evaluating how teams hit left-handed and right-handed pitchers. In summary, we surmised it was important, yet keeping in perspective, we demonstrated how the numbers can be greatly affected by random chance. Hence we warned about becoming too dependant on deceptive statistics that are so often fools gold.

We have very similar thoughts about comparing ballpark statistics. There are some stadiums that could be classified as “pitchers’ ballparks” while others could reasonably be labeled more friendly to hitters.

Yet again, we have to give props to the four-letter evil empire ESPN. In their fantasy baseball section, they have a straight-forward “Park Factor” that compares that rate of stats at home versus the rate of stats on the road. A rate that is higher than 1.000 favors the hitter, with lower than 1.000 favoring the pitcher.

Still, statistical reliability would assume the quality of the opponent has been equal at home and on the road. Random chance indicates some teams will face or use a disproportionate number of aces and No. 2 starters in one location. This deviation is just one example.

Then there is wind direction. Perhaps several teams have had the wind blowing in straight from center a higher percentage while other squads has an overbalanced number blowing out to leftfield.

Why, according the ESPN Ballpark Factor, is Boston the top hitters’ park this year, but was 13th last season?
As of this writing, Rogers Centre in Toronto is the second best pitchers park, yet last year it was a hitters paradise ranking 7th in hitting (24th pitching).

Petco Park is a rare exception. They are currently the top pitcher’s ball orchard after finishing first each of the previous three years and third in 2003.

So how do the elite gamblers use the stats? To measure the reliability of pitchers’ splits is how we employ them. For example, virtually every Padre is going to have statistically better stats at home than on the road. The fact that Chris Young, Greg Maddux, and

David Wells have significantly better stats at home than on the road proves to be the rule, not the exception. Hence the educated eye realizes there is not an angle in their respective splits.

Yet Jake Peavy is actually a better pitcher on the road than at home. This is an advantage for the gambler. A pitcher’s splits are most effective when measured against the ballpark stats.

Is there an edge for the over/under better? Often short-term, but rarely is the edge long-term as the sportsbooks adjust. As of June 19, the Padres last eight road games and 11-of-12 has seen a posted total of 8.0 or higher.
Yet 15 of their last 18 home games have seen a total of 7.5 or lower. Thinking somehow the sportsbooks are oblivious to such angles is one way for a gambler to subsidize bookmakers.

The Park Factor statistic is a valuable handicapping weapon, but more for statistical validation. Those who think they’ve found the Holy Grail with stadium comparisons are not in the same ballpark as the sharpies.
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