Premiership Betting Review – 23 April 2006

Tottenham had one foot in fourth place until Thierry Henry equalised in the North London derby. Robbie Keane gave Spurs the lead after 66 minutes which left Arsenal outraged as their opponents did not play for an injury. However, substitute Henry secured a share of the spoils at odds of 5/2 six minutes before the end.

Newcastle remain on course for an UEFA Cup berth after a convincing 3-0 win against West Brom. Nolberto Solano gave the 4/5 Magpies the lead after half an hour and Shola Ameobi showed there was life after Alan Shearer with a penalty five minutes before the break and a second goal just before the final whistle.

Bolton remain hot on Newcastle’s tail after a 4-1 demolition of Charlton. Vaz Te scored for the 5/6 Trotters after 14 minutes, Kevin Davies on 21 and Jared Borgetti 10 minutes later gave Sam Allardyce’s team a commanding lead. Darren Bent struck a penalty for the Addicks on 76 but Davies netted his second a minute from time to ensure Bolton won by three goals.

Portsmouth left it late to beat relegated Sunderland to edge out of the bottom three. Sunderland, a speculative punt at 8/1 took the lead through Tommy Miller after 70 minutes but Svetoslav Todorov equalised three minutes later. With two minutes remaining, Kevin Kyle gave away a ridiculous hand-ball and Matthew Taylor converted the resultant penalty to ensure a 2/5 home win.

Birmingham gave their survival hopes a boost with a goalless draw at Everton. A dour match with few chances for either side was played out to a 9/4 stalemate.

Being six points away from Portsmouth, West Brom are now 1/100 for relegation while Birmingham City, two points behind Portsmouth, are 3/10. Harry Redknapp’s side are 5/2 outsiders to face the drop, although they have two tough matches remaining in Wigan Athletic and Liverpool.

The FA Cup semi finals were both all-Premiership affairs with Liverpool meeting West Ham in the final on Saturday 13 May.

Liverpool were 16/5 outsiders in their match at Old Trafford but stunned Chelsea by racing into a 2-0 lead. John Arne Riise stuck a free kick after 20 minutes and Luis Garcia fired in a second seven minutes after the break. Didier Drogba took full advantage of a defensive mix-up on 69 but the Reds held firm..

West Ham left it late to dump Middlesbrough out of the cup at Villa Park. Marlon Harewood struck the decisive goal with 12 minutes left for Alan Pardew’s 9/5 outsiders and secured a place in next season’s UEFA Cup as a result.

Premiership Betting Review – 1 May 2006

Chelsea officially clinched the Premiership on Saturday lunchtime with a crushing 3-0 victory over second placed Manchester United. The Blues only needed a draw to confirm the champions status but William Gallas after five minutes, Joe Cole on 61 and Ricardo Carvalho on 73 sealed victory in style as Jose Mourinho’s side retained their Premiership trophy at 6/5.

Another crucial match in the Premiership was Portsmouth’s victory at Wigan Athletic. As predicted in the Walker’s Word column, Pompey’s win at the JJB Stadium relegated both Birmingham City and West Bromwich Albion in what was a gloomy day for West Midlands football. Henri Camara gave Wigan the lead after 34 minutes, but Benjamin Mwaruwari’s first goal form the club on 63 and Matt Taylor’s second penalty in as many weeks on 71 ensured a 9/5 away win.

Birmingham City could only muster a goalless draw against Newcastle United when only victory could preserve their Premiership status until the final match of the season. The draw was available at 12/5 before kick-off.

Liverpool went level on points with Manchester United after Saturday’s 3-1 win over struggling Aston Villa. Fernando Morientes opened the scoring after four minutes but Gareth Barry levelled on 58. Captain Steven Gerrard netted on 61 and 65 minutes to ensure a 3/10 victory for Rafa Benitez’s side.

Tottenham Hotspur tightened their grip on fourth place with a 1-0 win over Bolton Wanderers. Aaron Lennon struck the decisive goal on the hour for the 7/10 Spurs.

Fulham won their first match away from Craven Cottage with a last gasp goal at Manchester City. Richard Dunne gave City the lead after 69m minutes but Collins John equalised for the Cottagers with six minutes left. Steed Malbranque then fired in a stoppage time winner to secure an unlikely victory at 3/1 odds.

Alan Curbishley’s last match at The Valley as manager of Charlton Athletic ended in defeat as they were beaten 2-0 by 8/5 Blackburn Rovers. Steven Reid broke the deadlock two minutes before the break while a Chris Powell own goal on 65 put Mark Hughes’ side in touching distance of UEFA Cup football.

On Bank Holiday Monday, Arsenal made sure Sunderland went the entire season without a home win with a 3-0 victory at the Stadium of Light. Arsenal, huge 3/10 favourites before kick-off, scored three goals in 14 first half minutes, with a Danny Collins own goal on 28, Cesc Fabregas on 38 and Thierry Henry three minutes before the break.

Manchester United edged one point ahead of Liverpool as they drew 0-0 with Middlesbrough at Old Trafford. United, heavily odds-on before kick-off, saw Ruud van Nistelrooy miss a penalty after 65 minutes and the match ended level at 9/2.

Post flop Strategy in poker

When you are faced with a call when you have a hand you are sure is not the best use this table to determine if you should call or fold.
Example – you have 98 and the board is 65K – Player A bets into you for $1 the pot is $7
To figure out whether to call or fold take his (bet + the pot) and take the (bet x the odds) if the (bet + the pot) is greater call if not fold
Lets do this example – you have 4 outs (four 7’s) the odds for four outs on the turn is $1 x 9 = $9 the pot is $1 + $7 = $8. The Pot is less than the odds so it would be correct to fold
Note
If you are drawing to a hand that could be beat even if you hit one of your outs consider folding.
Example hands
A2 board 2TJ bet is $1 pot is $8 >> Fold
98 board is TJK bet is $1 pot is $8 >> Fold
9h8h board is 6c7cAc bet is $1 pot is $8 >> Fold
In all hands you had odds to call but even if you hit you could still lose so it is correct to fold.
Could there be a raise behind you? You must also take that into consideration before you call
You have a mediocre hand
you will often be faced with a situation where you have an ok hand and don’t know how to play it example – AJ and the board is QJ2
How many players are still in the pot? If the answer is 3+ play the hand like a drawing hand unless no one shows stenght than play aggressively by betting raising or check raising (with the intention of raising people out not building the pot). The larger the pot the more aggresive you should play.
If there are only 1-2 people in the hand play very aggressive and very tight.
Don’t be afraid to raise – If player A bets you can raise to force out player C plus player A will probably check to you on the turn giving you options.
If at any point you’re raised play the hand like a drawing hand.
You have a good hand
a good hand example – KT and the board is K97
Play this hand very aggressive until someone shows strength then play the hand like a drawing hand.
Check raise – if you’re in early position and you’re sure someone in late position will bet, check than raise. This will force the players to call 2 bets, if they do its probably the incorrect call whereas if you bet out they would most likely be making a correct call.
You have a great hand
example – AQ and the board is AsQh6c
Don’t slow play! Bet out no matter how many opponents there are its probably correct to bet out unless you’re sure you can check raise.
If someone infront of you bets call if the pot is small (only a few opponents and there was no raise preflop) and raise if the pot is large (5+ players or the pot was raised preflop)
If someone raises your bet and you have position wait for the turn to raise him, this is because the bet doubles on the turn. (Exception – there are others in the pot raise on the flop to get these extra bets they might drop out on the turn most poor players call the flop with anything and fold to a turn bet)
If you don’t have position example – you bet Player A behind you raises, re raise him back he could be looking for a free card.
You have a monster
example QQ and the board is Qh8h8c
play this hand just like you would a great hand with a few exceptions:
If someone bets in front of you don’t raise forcing your opponents to fold unless the pot is huge.

If you have a very aggressive player to your immediate left check so when he bets you can trap the entire field into 2 bets. (If the pot is large it could also be a good idea to call the flop bet then raise the turn bet trapping atleast some of your opponents for a double sized bet).

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