Author: horse-racing-free-tips

Today, I thought of taking a break from the normal chat about systems and games and tell you a little story about a bum in Las Vegas. I call him the Blackjack bum. And this quick tale just might show you how riches can be won at the table.

If you were to survey one million people in Las Vegas and ask them what’s the best way to win tens of thousands of dollars without risking tens of thousands of dollars, most would say the slot machines. Many believe that the best or only way to turn a few bucks into serious coin is to hit a great jackpot on a slot machine.

This story will show you that there’s another way. The day was a Friday. It was the start of a new month and just like the beginning of every month, our bum went to get his government cash. And as per the usual, once he got it, he went straight to the casino were he could play for a little bit and soak up all the free drinks as fast as the cocktail waitress could come around.

Today, he walks into a premier resort on the Las Vegas Strip and heads for his usual action of choice-the Blackjack table. His mind wasn’t filled with vision of grandeur. He simply wanted to try and win some money and get liquored up. But, this day would be unlike the others.

He picks a table and sits down. His stench fills the air, but he’s got money and that means someone must deal to him. He’s not refined. He doesn’t know all the odds of the game and he doesn’t care.

As the hands flow out of the deck, he doubles up when he wins and starts over when he loses. Occasionally, he’ll take some money off his double bets for later.

Hours go by and our bum is now sitting at the table with thousands of dollars. He’s enjoying free drinks and his bankroll is growing. A couple more hours go by and his bankroll is even larger. Casino management acts quickly by giving him a free dinner comp to wherever he wants-anything to keep him in the casino.

Next thing you know, he decides to take a break and enjoy a meal. The casino reserves his spot and table. He’s now up to tens of thousands of dollars.

By the end of the session, some twenty hours later, he has amassed a small fortune and now has a luxury suite given to him for the night. It will be perhaps the best day of his life.

And it all started with a few bucks and some Blackjack.

Pythagoras, the Greek mathematician and philosopher, had a lot of influence on philosophy and religion in the late 6th century BC. In the 21st century, his teachings can help make you some money at the sportsbook.

Pythagorean winning percentage is an estimate of a team’s winning percentage, given their runs scored and runs allowed. Developed by Bill James, it can tell you when teams were a bit lucky or unlucky. It is calculated by

(Runs Scored)^1.83

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(Runs Scored)^1.83 + (Runs Allowed)^1.83

That formula had smart bettors betting against the Washington Nationals during the second half of last year, despite their fast start. Another team to pay attention to this year is the Reds. Using this formula, their winning percentage should be .541 instead of the .704 clip they are playing at thus far this season.

Now, you don’t need to be a mathematician to know something is a bit fishy about the Reds’ torrid start. Looking at the newspaper on opening day and seeing Aaron Harang as the starter had to make you wonder how this team could possibly escape the NL Central cellar. Bronson Arroyo has been a godsend early on, but how will he do the second time around the league? The aforementioned Aaron Harang has a 4-1 record, but a very mediocre 4.35 Earned Run Average. Brandon Claussen and Dave Williams have ERAs over 6.00. This kind of pitching will clearly burn out a bullpen and catch up to the Reds as the season progresses. The ballpark, which is one of baseball’s easiest-to-hit homeruns, will further tax the pitching staff.

Speaking of that soon-to-be-overworked bullpen, was anyone racing to grab closer David Weathers in your fantasy draft? Weathers has a reputation for having a rubber arm more than actual “stuff.” And even that rubber-arm reputation is up for debate. In each of the last two years, he has faltered in one of the last two months of the season. Last year, he had a 7.15 ERA in September and in 2004, he had a 6.75 ERA in August.

No one can dispute that the Reds put out a very competitive lineup every game. Adam Dunn is one of the league’s top power hitters; Edwin Encarnacion is a promising young hitter; and Rich Aurilla, Austin Kearns and Brandon Phillips have all turned their careers in the right direction. All this, and Ken Griffey, Jr., will soon return.

The Reds lead the NL in on-base percentage with .364, but the pitching staff is near the bottom with a 1.40 WHIP. This is a team that will play a lot of 10-9 games. That’s no way to win a pennant, and games like that will eventually wear out the offense as much as the pitching staff.

Don’t be fooled by their fast start. This team will be a lot of fun to watch, but this is not the Big Red Machine you’re witnessing; it’s the Big Red Mirage. Bet the over when the Reds are playing, but be ready to bet against them as the season wears on.