Kempton – Ladbrokes Desert Orchid Handicap Chase (Grade 2) 14.30 UK Time
Saint Segal has shown consistent form recently, with a win at Kelso in his latest outing.
He previously finished second to Thistle Ask at Exeter, beaten by seven lengths in a Grade 2 contest.
His wins at Chepstow demonstrate he handles right-handed tracks well.
He performs effectively on good going, as evidenced by several strong performances under similar conditions.
Fitness appears sharp following his recent run earlier this month.
He has experience in high-class handicaps and looks suited to this level.
Boothill possesses undeniable class from previous seasons but his recent form has been disappointing.
He finished a distant fifth at Sandown in his last start, beaten by seventy-five lengths.
Prior to that, he pulled up at Ascot and was well beaten in another Ascot contest.
He fell at Kempton previously, which raises concerns about his course affinity.
Performances on good going have been mixed, with some promise earlier but lacking lately.
His fitness is questionable given the poor showings, though he has competed in Grade 1 and Grade 2 races before.
Thistle Ask is in excellent current form, having won his last three starts impressively.
He beat Saint Segal by seven lengths in a Grade 2 at Exeter most recently.
Before that, he secured comfortable victories at Wetherby and Kelso.
He thrives on good going, with multiple wins on such ground.
While lacking specific Kempton experience, his style suits sharp, right-handed tracks.
He remains progressive and fit despite a short break since his last run.
His class is proven at this level and beyond.
Sans Bruit has shown ability in the past but his recent efforts suggest he is not at his peak.
He finished fifth at Cheltenham last time out, beaten by twenty lengths.
Previous runs saw him sixth at Ascot on two occasions.
He has wins at Plumpton and Aintree earlier in the year, indicating potential on good going.
Form at right-handed tracks like Ascot has been inconsistent.
Fitness may improve with more runs, but he has experience in Grade 3 handicaps.
Ryan’s Rocket returned with a solid win at Newbury in his latest appearance.
He unseated his rider at Market Rasen before that and was sixth at Cheltenham.
He showed promise with a close second at Ascot earlier.
He handles good going well, with a win under those conditions.
His Ascot performance suggests suitability for right-handed tracks.
He appears fit following his reappearance success and has scope for further improvement in handicaps.
Gabriel’s Getaway is running well currently, with a fourth at Ascot in his most recent start.
He was a close second at Ascot before that and also second at Kempton in October.
This demonstrates strong form at the course, which is a positive.
He performs adequately on good going, with placed efforts.
Fitness looks good after consistent recent outings.
He has experience in competitive handicaps and conditions should suit.
Calgary Tiger has not won for some time and faces a tough task here.
He fell at Cheltenham in his last run.
Prior to that, he was third at Sandown and Aintree, showing some ability but lacking a cutting edge.
Performances on good going have yielded places but no victories recently.
No specific Kempton form, and his overall level appears below what’s required.
Fitness may be adequate, but he lacks class for this contest.
Simulation Results:
Thistle Ask 47.36%, Saint Segal 31.49%, Ryan’s Rocket 6.83%, Gabriel’s Getaway 6.64%, Sans Bruit 3.86%, Boothill 3.81%, Calgary Tiger 0.00%.
Equivalent fractional odds: Thistle Ask 10/9, Saint Segal 11/5, Ryan’s Rocket 27/2, Gabriel’s Getaway 14/1, Sans Bruit 25/1, Boothill 25/1, Calgary Tiger N/A.
The best bet is Thistle Ask.
The two value selections are Thistle Ask (live 9/4 greater than fair 10/9) and Saint Segal (live 7/2 greater than fair 11/5).
There are no steamer bets, as no horses meet the criteria of early prices higher than live by at least four points among those with the greatest chances.
Last 12 year trends:
Thistle Ask fits several key trends well for the Desert Orchid Chase over the last 12 years.
Aged eight, he aligns with nine of the last 12 winners being between six and eight years old.
Although his official rating of 146 is below the 153 threshold that 10 of 12 winners met, he has shown strong season form with at least one win this campaign, matching the majority.
He won his last run at Exeter, though only five of 12 winners did so, and it was within 48 days, as nine of 12 were.
No run in the Tingle Creek or Shloer last time, but his graded win in a Grade 2 fits the nine of 12 with at least one Grade 1-3 victory.
No previous Kempton form, missing the trend of 10 of 12 having at least one course run and seven with a win.
He has ample distance form over 15-17 furlongs with multiple wins, aligning with 11 of 12 having at least three such victories.
Chase experience is solid with multiple runs and wins, fitting 11 of 12 trends for at least five runs and two wins.
Overall, his progression and class make him a strong contender.
Saint Segal matches the age trend at seven years old.
His rating of 155 exceeds the 153 mark for 10 of 12 winners.
He has season form with a win, and triumphed on his last run at Kelso within 48 days.
No graded wins yet, missing the nine of 12 trend.
Lacks Kempton experience, against the course form trend.
Distance and chase form appear sufficient based on recent performances.
His current fitness and consistency boost his chances despite some gaps in trends.
Ryan’s Rocket, at seven, fits the age profile.
Rated 135, below 153, but has a season win and succeeded on his last outing at Newbury within 48 days.
No graded wins or Kempton form.
Distance experience includes a recent win over similar trips.
Chase form is emerging but may not yet reach the five runs and two wins level for most winners.
His upward trajectory suggests he could outperform expectations.
Boothill, aged 10, falls outside the preferred six to eight range.
Rating of 149 is under 153.
No season win and did not win last time out at Sandown (which was the Tingle Creek, where previous participants in this spot won it, but he finished fifth).
However, he has Kempton form with a previous win there, aligning well with course trends.
Graded experience from past seasons fits.
Distance and chase form are strong with multiple runs and wins.
His class could shine if he regains spark, though recent form tempers optimism.
Gabriel’s Getaway matches age at eight.
Rated 135, below threshold.
No season win, did not win last time (fourth at Ascot within 48 days).
No graded wins.
Has Kempton form with a placed effort, partially fitting the course trend.
Distance form lacks wins in recent terms.
Chase experience includes runs but fewer standout victories.
Consistent recent placings offer some hope, but he misses several key trends.
Sans Bruit fits age at seven.
Rated 139, under 153.
No season win, did not win last time (fifth at Cheltenham).
No graded wins or Kempton form.
Distance form includes two wins over similar trips earlier.
Chase form meets basic levels.
His spring peak may not suit this timing, limiting appeal.
Calgary Tiger, at 10, misses the age trend.
Rated 135 (or possibly lower, out of handicap), below 153.
No season win, fell last time at Cheltenham.
No graded wins, Kempton form, or strong recent distance wins.
Chase experience exists but lacks the depth of most winners.
Faces a tough ask here.
In order of preference: Thistle Ask, Saint Segal, Ryan’s Rocket, Boothill, Gabriel’s Getaway, Sans Bruit, Calgary Tiger.
