horse-racing-free-tips | Horse Racing Free Tips

Aintree William Hill Formby Novices’ Hurdle

Aintree turf track 26th December 2025, William Hill Formby Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) (Gbb Race) (G1) 13.05 UK Time

Idaho Sun is trained by Harry Fry and ridden by Bryan Carver.
This five-year-old has won his last two starts over hurdles, impressing with an 11-length victory at Bangor-on-Dee most recently on soft ground.
Prior to that, he scored by three and a half lengths at Fontwell on good to soft.
He has a strong record on good to soft going, with one win from two attempts.
No previous form at Aintree, but he has handled left-handed tracks well, including a win at Fontwell.
His class is on the up, with experience in Grade 1 bumpers where he finished sixth at Cheltenham.
Fitness looks sharp after recent successes.

Mydaddypaddy is trained by Dan Skelton and ridden by Harry Skelton.
This four-year-old remains unbeaten in three starts, including a seven-length win at Haydock most recently on good to soft ground.
He previously won by four and a half lengths at Carlisle on soft.
He excels on good to soft going, with one win from one attempt.
No form at Aintree, but he has performed on left-handed tracks similar to this.
He shows high-class potential, with ante-post favouritism for bigger targets.
Fitness is excellent following his latest outing.

Storming George is trained by Neil King and ridden by Jack Quinlan.
This five-year-old won by 12 lengths at Doncaster most recently on soft ground.
Before that, he was third by two and a half lengths at Newbury on good to soft.
He has two wins from three runs on good to soft going.
He has form at Aintree, finishing fifth in a Grade 2 here on good ground.
His experience includes top-level contests, and he appears fit after recent runs.

Glance At Midnight is trained by Andrew Martin and ridden by Shane Quinlan.
This five-year-old finished second by 12 lengths at Cheltenham most recently on good to soft ground.
He won his previous start by six lengths at Huntingdon on good to soft.
He has two wins from four attempts on good to soft going.
No previous runs at Aintree, but he has won on left-handed tracks like Huntingdon.
He has shown ability in better company, though vulnerable at this level.
Fitness is good after a recent effort.

Wahraan is trained by Miss J Bedi and ridden by Kevin Healy.
This seven-year-old finished third by seven lengths at Wetherby most recently on soft ground.
That was his hurdle debut after flat racing experience.
He has one place from one run on soft going, with mixed results on similar conditions.
No form at Aintree or comparable left-handed tracks.
He lacks class experience at this grade and may need more time to adapt.
Fitness appears reasonable after his latest outing.

Starmount is trained by Ben Pauling and ridden by Kielan Woods.
This five-year-old won by five lengths at Wetherby most recently on soft ground.
Prior form includes a point-to-point success on soft.
He has one win from one attempt on soft going, untested on good to soft.
No runs at Aintree, but he has handled left-handed tracks in points.
This is a step up in class, but he shows promise.
Fitness is solid following his hurdle debut win.

The Last Cloud is trained by Patrick Neville and ridden by Brian Hughes.
This five-year-old finished fourth by one and three-quarter lengths at Cheltenham most recently on good to soft ground in a Grade 2.
He had won his three previous starts at Perth on good ground.
He has one place from three runs on good to soft going.
No form at Aintree or similar left-handed tracks.
He has Grade 2 experience, but limitations may show here.
Fitness could be a concern after a 61-day break.

Simulation Results:

The percentage chances are: Idaho Sun 48.43%, Mydaddypaddy 45.84%, Storming George 3.94%, Glance At Midnight 1.4%, Wahraan 0.31%, Starmount 0.07%, The Last Cloud 0%.

Equivalent fractional odds from percentages: Idaho Sun 1/1, Mydaddypaddy 6/5, Storming George 24/1, Glance At Midnight 70/1, Wahraan 322/1, Starmount 1427/1, The Last Cloud undefined.

The best bet is Idaho Sun.

The two value selections are Idaho Sun and Storming George, as their live betting odds are higher than the calculated fair odds.

Steamer bets will be Glance At Midnight.

Trends Last 12 years:

Idaho Sun meets 12 of the trends.

Mydaddypaddy meets 12 of the trends.

Storming George meets 10 of the trends.

Glance At Midnight meets 9 of the trends.

Starmount meets 8 of the trends.

The Last Cloud meets 8 of the trends.

Wahraan meets 2 of the trends.

In order of preference based on the number of trends matched: Idaho Sun, Mydaddypaddy, Storming George, Glance At Midnight, Starmount, The Last Cloud, Wahraan.

Kempton Ladbrokes King George VI Chase

Kempton turf track 26th December 2025, Ladbrokes King George VI Chase (Grade 1) (Gbb Race) (G1) 14.30 UK Time

Gaelic Warrior is trained by Willie Mullins and ridden by Paul Townend.
This seven-year-old has been in excellent recent form, winning his last three starts including two Grade 1 contests.
He beat Fact To File by a neck at Punchestown most recently.
He has shown strong ability on good to soft ground with a win from two attempts.
He performs well on right-handed tracks similar to Kempton, with two wins from two runs.
His class is proven at the highest level with six Grade 1 victories.
Fitness appears spot on after recent successes.

Fact To File is also trained by Willie Mullins, with Mark Walsh in the saddle.
He has high-class form, including four Grade 1 wins.
Most recently, he finished a close second to Gaelic Warrior at Punchestown.
He has a perfect record on good to soft going, winning his only start.
He has some experience on right-handed tracks, with one win from three attempts.
There is a suspicion he may prefer a shorter trip than three miles, but he remains a leading contender.
His experience in top races is solid, and he looks fit.

Jango Baie is trained by Nicky Henderson and ridden by Nico de Boinville.
This horse won the Arkle over two miles despite the trip, showing smart form.
He could improve stepping up to three miles for the first time.
He has two wins from four runs on good to soft ground.
No specific form at Kempton, but he has recent winning form at Ascot by nine lengths.
His class includes a Grade 1 success, and he seems in good condition.

The Jukebox Man is trained by Ben Pauling with Ben Jones riding.
He won a Grade 1 novice chase over course and distance last year by two and a half lengths.
Most recently, he scored at Haydock.
He excels on good to soft going, with two wins from two attempts.
He has form at Kempton, including that notable victory.
This improving type has bundles of potential at this level.
Fitness is good following his latest win.

Djelo is trained by Venetia Williams and ridden by Charlie Deutsch.
This progressive seven-year-old has won his last two starts, both Grade 2 contests under penalties.
He took Huntingdon by four and three-quarter lengths and Wetherby by a length.
He has three wins from seven runs on good to soft ground.
He shows ability on right-handed tracks, with two wins from three.
Yet to win a Grade 1 but improving and fit.

Banbridge is trained by Joseph O’Brien with Sean Bowen aboard.
He won this race last year by one and three-quarter lengths, proving his affinity for Kempton.
However, his form this season has been disappointing, with finishes of fourth, fourth, and seventh.
He has three wins from five on good to soft going.
His course record is strong, with a win from three attempts here.
A visor is applied today to spark improvement.
Class proven but recent fitness questioned by poor runs.

Il Est Francais is trained by Tom George and ridden by Harry Cobden.
His form has been inconsistent, pulling up at Ascot most recently.
Prior to that, third in a Grade 1.
No wins on good to soft from one attempt, preferring firmer.
He has a strong Kempton record, including a win and a second from two runs.
Worth considering due to track suitability despite recent issues.
Class includes Grade 1 success, but fitness uncertain after pull-up.

Master Chewy is trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies with Sam Twiston-Davies riding.
He has two Grade 2 wins over two miles.
Most recently, second at Aintree.
His record on good to soft is two wins from nine.
He has a win from one at Kempton.
Three miles may suit, but he needs a career-best effort.
Experience at high level but moderate in Grade 1s.

Simulation Results:

The percentage chances are: Gaelic Warrior 40.9%, Fact To File 26.62%, Djelo 10%, Jango Baie 8.35%, Banbridge 7.39%, The Jukebox Man 4.04%, Il Est Francais 1.74%, Master Chewy 0.96%.

Equivalent fractional odds from percentages: Gaelic Warrior 13/9, Fact To File 11/4, Djelo 9/1, Jango Baie 11/1, Banbridge 25/2, The Jukebox Man 24/1, Il Est Francais 56/1, Master Chewy 100/1.

The best bet is Gaelic Warrior.

The two value selections are Gaelic Warrior and Djelo, as their live betting odds are higher than the calculated fair odds.

There are no steamer bets, as no horses meet the criteria of early prices higher than live by at least 4 points.

Trends for last 12 years:

Gaelic Warrior meets 11 of the trends.

Fact To File meets 9 of the trends.

Djelo meets 8 of the trends.

Il Est Francais meets 8 of the trends.

Banbridge meets 8 of the trends.

The Jukebox Man meets 7 of the trends.

Jango Baie meets 6 of the trends.

Master Chewy meets 2 of the trends.

In order of preference based on the number of trends matched: Gaelic Warrior, Fact To File, Djelo, Il Est Francais, Banbridge, The Jukebox Man, Jango Baie, Master Chewy.

Kempton Ladbrokes Christmas Hurdle

Kempton turf track 26th December 2025, Ladbrokes Christmas Hurdle (Grade 1) (Gbb Race) (G1) 13.55 UK Time

Sir Gino is trained by Nicky Henderson and ridden by Nico de Boinville.
This six-year-old is an exciting prospect who remains unbeaten under rules.
Most recently, he won a Grade 2 novice chase at Kempton by seven and a half lengths on good to soft ground.
Prior to that, he scored in a Grade 1 hurdle at Newcastle by eight lengths on good ground.
He has a perfect record on good to soft going, with two wins from two attempts.
He has strong form at Kempton, including that recent chase success and an earlier hurdle win here by 14 lengths.
His class is top-notch, with multiple Grade 1 victories.
Fitness might be a question after an injury layoff, but he looks the one to beat.

Golden Ace is trained by Jeremy Scott and ridden by Lorcan Williams.
This seven-year-old mare upset the odds when winning a Grade 1 hurdle at Newcastle by a length and a half most recently on good to soft ground.
Before that, she was second by 28 lengths at Wetherby on good ground.
She has performed well on good to soft going, with two wins from three attempts.
No previous runs at Kempton, but she has handled right-handed tracks like Cheltenham, where she won a Grade 1 by nine lengths.
Her class includes Champion Hurdle success, and she appears fit after recent outings.

Celtic Dino is trained by Sam Thomas and ridden by Dylan Johnston.
This six-year-old has progressive form, finishing second by two and a half lengths at Ascot most recently in a Grade 2 on good to soft ground.
He won his previous start at Chepstow by two and a quarter lengths on good ground.
He acts on good to soft going, with one place from two attempts.
He has form at Kempton, finishing third by 13 lengths in a Grade 2 here.
His experience in handicaps is solid, and fitness is good following recent runs.

Rubaud is trained by Paul Nicholls and ridden by Harry Cobden.
This seven-year-old has been in fine form, winning his last two starts at Wincanton by a neck and at Kempton by a length, both on good ground.
He has chase experience from last season, including a Grade 2 win at Kempton.
He performs well on good to soft going, with one win from two attempts.
Strong course record at Kempton, with two wins from three runs.
His class is proven at Grade 2 level, and he looks fit.

Tripoli Flyer is trained by Fergal O’Brien and ridden by Jonathan Burke.
This six-year-old has mixed recent form, finishing fourth by 19 and a half lengths at Exeter most recently on good to soft ground.
He unseated at Perth before that.
He has a win at Kempton from last season in a Grade 2 novice hurdle by seven and a half lengths on good to soft.
He excels on good to soft going, with one win from two attempts.
Course form is positive with that victory.
Fitness may improve, but class needs to step up.

Give It To Me Oj is trained by Gary and Josh Moore and ridden by Caoilin Quinn.
This six-year-old finished fifth by 18 and a half lengths at Newbury most recently in a Grade 3 handicap on soft ground.
He won his previous hurdle start at Cheltenham by a neck on good ground.
He has one win from two on soft going, untested specifically on good to soft.
No form at Kempton, but he has won on right-handed tracks like Sandown.
His experience includes handicap wins, but this is tougher.
Fitness is reasonable after recent efforts.

Simulation Results:

The percentage chances are: Sir Gino 61%, Golden Ace 21%, Rubaud 9%, Celtic Dino 6%, Tripoli Flyer 1.6%, Give It To Me Oj 1.4%.

Equivalent fractional odds from percentages: Sir Gino 8/13, Golden Ace 15/4, Rubaud 10/1, Celtic Dino 31/2, Tripoli Flyer 122/3, Give It To Me Oj 70/1.

The best bet is Sir Gino.

The two value selections are Golden Ace and Rubaud, as their live betting odds are higher than the calculated fair odds.

Steamer bets are Sir Gino and Celtic Dino.

Trends for the last 12 years.

Golden Ace meets 15 of the trends.

Rubaud meets 14 of the trends.

Sir Gino meets 11 of the trends.

Celtic Dino meets 8 of the trends.

Tripoli Flyer meets 8 of the trends.

Give It To Me Oj meets 6 of the trends.

In order of preference based on the number of trends matched: Golden Ace, Rubaud, Sir Gino, Celtic Dino, Tripoli Flyer, Give It To Me Oj.

Kauto Star Novices’ Chase Grade 1

Kempton turf track 26th December 2025, Ladbrokes Kauto Star Novices’ Chase (In Memory Of Nigel Clark) (Grade 1) (Gbb Race) (G1) 13.20 UK Time

Salver is trained by Gary and Josh Moore and ridden by Caoilin Quinn.
This six-year-old finished a close second by a head to Blueking d’Oroux at Sandown most recently on 5th December in a Grade 2 novices’ chase over three miles on soft ground.
He has shown strong form with four hurdle wins and a chase success from two miles to three miles.
He performs best on good to soft to heavy going, with multiple wins on similar conditions.
He has no previous runs at Kempton but has excelled on right-handed tracks like Sandown.
His current handicap rating reflects his progressive profile.
Fitness is excellent following his recent outing.
Experience includes high-class hurdle form, and he handles the class well.

Kitzbuhel is trained by Willie Mullins and ridden by Paul Townend.
This horse won his most recent start on 22nd November at Punchestown in a beginners’ chase over two miles three furlongs on soft to heavy ground.
He has solid hurdle form, including a third in a Grade 2 and fifth in a Grade 1.
He acts on good ground but showed improvement on heavier conditions last time.
No form at Kempton or similar UK tracks.
His handicap rating suggests room for improvement.
Fitness appears good after his November success.
Experience is limited over fences, but his class from hurdles makes him interesting.

Blueking d’Oroux is trained by Paul Nicholls and ridden by Harry Cobden.
This horse won his latest race on 5th December at Sandown in a Grade 2 novices’ chase over three miles, beating Salver by a head on soft ground.
Prior to that, he had a poor run at Fontwell but won at Wincanton in November in another Grade 2 over two and a half miles.
He thrives on soft going, with wins on similar.
He has form on right-handed tracks like Sandown, which is comparable to Kempton.
His handicap rating is high at 150.
Fitness is sharp after recent victories.
Experience at this level is proven, and he handles the class.

Wendigo is trained by Jamie Snowden and ridden by Gavin Sheehan.
This horse scored on his most recent outing on 28th November at Newbury in a Grade 2 novices’ chase over two miles four furlongs on good to soft ground.
Previously, he finished fifth in a Grade 1 novice hurdle at Cheltenham.
He performs well on good to soft going, as shown in his latest win.
He has form on right-handed tracks like Newbury, similar to Kempton.
His handicap rating is 143.
Fitness is solid following his November run.
Experience over fences is building, with class from hurdles.

Crest Of Fortune is trained by Anthony Honeyball and ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies.
This horse ran in the Grade 2 at Newbury on 28th November, finishing behind Wendigo over two miles four furlongs on good to soft ground.
He has a win from earlier in the year at Ayr in a novice hurdle.
He acts on good to soft going.
No specific form at Kempton, but he has handled left-handed tracks.
His handicap rating is lower at 125.
Fitness is reasonable after recent efforts.
Experience at graded level is limited, but he shows some potential.

Thomas Mor is trained by Philip Hobbs and Johnson White and ridden by Ben Jones.
This horse won his latest start on 21st November at Ascot in a Class 2 beginners’ chase over two miles five furlongs on good to soft ground.
Previously, he was fourth in a novice handicap chase at Doncaster in January.
He performs well on good to soft going.
He has form on right-handed tracks like Ascot, comparable to Kempton.
His handicap rating is 142.
Fitness is good after his November victory.
Experience over fences includes a win, with solid class.

Simulation Results:

The percentage chances are: Salver 36%, Blueking d’Oroux 32%, Wendigo 18%, Kitzbuhel 10%, Crest Of Fortune 2%, Thomas Mor 2%.

Equivalent fractional odds from percentages: Salver 16/9, Blueking d’Oroux 17/8, Wendigo 41/9, Kitzbuhel 9/1, Crest Of Fortune 49/1, Thomas Mor 49/1.

The best bet is Salver.

The two value selections are Salver and Blueking d’Oroux, as their live betting odds are higher than the calculated fair odds.

There are no steamer bets, as no horses meet the criteria of early prices higher than live by at least 4 points.

Trends base don last 12 years:

Salver meets 12 of the trends.

Wendigo meets 11 of the trends.

Blueking d’Oroux meets 10 of the trends.

Kitzbuhel meets 9 of the trends.

Crest Of Fortune meets 6 of the trends.

Thomas Mor meets 6 of the trends.

In order of preference based on the number of trends matched: Salver, Wendigo, Blueking d’Oroux, Kitzbuhel, Crest Of Fortune, Thomas Mor.