Arkle Chase Trends Cheltenham Festival Stats
The Arkle Chase at Cheltenham is a prestigious event that showcases some of the most promising novice chasers in horse racing. Analysing the trends can provide valuable insights into what it takes to win this challenging race. Here’s a summary of the key trends:
Age and Maturity:
The majority of winners are aged 6 or 7, indicating that horses in this age range have the optimal combination of youth and experience.
Betting Odds:
Favourites have a strong track record, with many winners being favourites or within the top 3 in the betting.
Recent Performance:
A win in the last run before the Arkle Chase is a common trait among winners.
Most winners also ran within the last 51 days, suggesting that a recent race helps maintain competitive form.
Course Familiarity:
Experience at Cheltenham is a significant advantage, with many winners having at least one previous run, and some even having a win at the course.
Distance Form:
Winners often have multiple previous runs over the race distance, demonstrating their capability at this specific challenge.
Hurdle and Chase Form:
A history of at least four runs over hurdles and success in previous chase runs are indicative of a horse’s versatility and skill in both disciplines.
Rating:
A high rating is another indicator of a horse’s potential, with winners often rated 159 or higher.
Graded Wins:
Success in graded races, particularly Grade 1 or Grade 2, is a trend among winners, showcasing their ability to perform at the highest levels.
Season Form:
Multiple runs and wins in the same season are common among winners, highlighting the importance of consistent performance.
Future Form:
Winners of the Arkle Chase often go on to succeed in their next races, with several winning or placing in subsequent events.
Trends
Age: 11 of the last 12 winners were aged 6 or 7.
Price: 9 of the last 12 winners were favourites, and 10 were in the top 3 in the betting.
Last Run: All of the last 12 winners won their last run before the Arkle Chase, and 9 ran within the last 51 days.
Previous Course Form: 10 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham, with 5 having at least 1 win.
Previous Distance Form: 9 of the last 12 winners had at least 5 previous runs over 15-17 furlongs, with 9 having at least 2 wins.
Previous Hurdle Form: All of the last 12 winners had at least 4 runs over hurdles, with 10 having at least 2 wins.
Previous Chase Form: 11 of the last 12 winners had at least 2 previous chase runs, with all having at least 1 win, and 10 having at least 2 wins.
Rating: 9 of the last 12 winners were rated 159 or higher.
Graded Wins: 10 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 win in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race.
Season Form: 10 of the last 12 winners had at least 3 runs that season, with all having at least 1 win, and 10 having at least 2 wins.
