The 2022 edition of the Grade 1, $1 million Coolmore Turf Mile, an opening weekend staple at Keeneland and run since 1986, drew a full field of 12 plus four also-eligibles. The race will be held on Saturday, Oct. 8. Among the group vying for the top share of the purse and a qualifying spot in the Breeders' Cup Mile in four weeks are seven horses that have banked over $1 million in their careers.
Ivar (BRZ), who won this race two years ago, is one of that group and his last effort may have him ready to become a repeat winner as he was second in the similar $1 million G1 Woodbine Mile Stakes last month. Casa Creed proved he belongs with these following a win when last seen in August, in the G1 Fourstardave Handicap. Similarly, Somelikeithotbrown enters the race off a win in the $1 million G3 Mint Million Stakes. Santin just won the G1 Arlington Million Stakes and adds more depth to the field. Order of Australia (IRE) won the G1 Breeders' Cup Mile in 2020 at Keeneland and was most recently second in the G1 Prix du Moulin de Longchamp in France. Smooth Like Strait won the G1 Shoemaker Mile Stakes in May of 2021, and although winless in seven since has been second in six of those. Classic Causeway is the only one of the seven who has yet to win at one mile on turf, because he's never run the distance, but he did win the G1 Belmont Derby in July in wire-to-wire fashion.
Next, there are a number of recent graded stakes winners who have the potential to step up their game to this level. Annapolis is one of those, as he enters the Coolmore Turf Mile off an easy five-length win in the G3 Saranac Stakes. Emaraaty (GB) won the G3 Barnard Baruch Stakes last month. Masen (GB) won the G3 Poker Stakes at the distance of this race in June before a third place finish behind Casa Creed in the Fourstardave. Set Piece (GB) enters the race off a win at the distance on grass in the G3 Baltimore/Washington International Turf Cup Stakes. Another recent stakes winner is Gray's Fable, who won the Evan Williams Turf Mile Stakes before a fifth place finish behind Somelikeithotbrown in the Mint Million, in which Atone (one of the also-eligibles) was second. Dark Shift (GB) is another also-eligible, bringing a six for 12 record into the race including a neck defeat in the International Stakes when last seen in July. Natural Power (IRE) and Greyes Creek round out the field, both also-eligibles entering the race off allowance level wins and never having been competitive in a stakes race to date.
Top Win Contenders:
Ivar (BRZ) has been adeptly handled by trainer Paulo Lobo and may be able to duplicate the feat of winning this race in 2020, then at odds of 14 to 1. Prior to that Ivar (BRZ) had raced three times in his native Brazil, winning all three races impressively. After getting acclimated to U.S. racing and winning his second stateside start that June, he was rested two months and returned to finish third in the Tourist Mile Stakes at Kentucky Downs, then four weeks later won this race with a career best 122 
Equibase Speed Figure, which remains the best figure earned by any horse in this field in a North American race. After a fast finishing fourth behind Order of Australia (IRE) in the Breeders' Cup Mile, also run at Keeneland that year, Ivar (BRZ) was rested for six months, returning to finish fourth in this race last year in his second start off the layoff. Once again rested for many months, Ivar (BRZ) ran a lot better than one year earlier off the layoff, winning the John B. Schuster Memorial Stakes in July. Given a short rest similar to 2020, Ivar (BRZ) made his next start at this level in the Woodbine Mile Stakes and although no match for five length winner Modern Games, he rallied from 10th in the early stages to get second by a neck. That effort earned him a 113 figure setting him up to repeat his win two years ago this week.
Casa Creed finished fourth behind Ivar (BRZ) in the 2020 edition of this race, then was 12th of 14 in the Breeders' Cup Mile that year. Returning in January of last year, Casa Creed ran the best race of his career when winning the Tropical Turf Mile with a 117 figure, then three races later won the Jaipur Stakes, earning his first grade one stakes win. That form was short lived as he lost three in a row including when eighth in last year's Breeders' Cup Mile, in which Ivar (BRZ) finished third. This year has been a different story, particularly his two most recent races. In June Casa Creed repeated as the winner of the Jaipur with a 105 figure, then two months later won the Fourstardave Handicap, earning a 112 figure in the process. Now on a pattern for another improvement in form and figure, Casa Creed could have a big say in the outcome of this race.
Set Piece (GB) appears to be another top miler who is on the improve and who can do well in this situation. He proved that when closing from last of six to win the Baltimore/Washington International Turf Cup Stakes last month with a 112 figure, the same as he earned winning the Wise Dan Stake in June of last year. Set Piece (GB) has experience over the course, having been beaten just two lengths this past April in the Maker's Mark Mile, the spring equivalent of this race. That effort came following seven months off and I'm pretty sure trainer Brad Cox had wished for a race under the horse's belt before that. Now with four races since then including two wins in graded stakes on turf, Set Piece (GB) has a similar potential to Ivar (BRZ) to be closing fastest of all in the stretch and win this year's Coolmore Turf Mile Stakes.
Notes about three others who are contenders but may be ever so slightly a cut below the three above – Santin is two for two at this mile turf trip and four for eight in his career. The wins at a mile came two years ago but one of them was at Keeneland and that's a positive factor. He enters the race off a 113 figure effort winning the Arlington Million and two races before that won the Turf Classic Stakes on Kentucky Derby Day with a 115 figure which, if repeated, would be competitive against the top choices.
Order of Australia (IRE) is attempting to use this race as a prep to become one of few horses to win the Breeders' Cup Mile more than once. When winning that race at odds of 73 to 1 in 2020, he was making his first start in the U.S. and coming off a ninth place finish in Ireland. Then when attempting a similar feat to this year in 2021, Order of Australia (IRE) finished 12th and last in the Keeneland Turf Mile then went back to Europe instead of competing in the Breeders' Cup Mile. Similar to last year, Order of Australia (IRE) enters the race off a runner-up effort in the Prix du Moulin de Longchamp, with a very strong 122 figure, but it remains to be seen if he will run as well as he did in 2020 or as poorly as he did last year.
As to Smooth Like Strait, the best description is he shows up with his “A” game every time. However, his “A” game hasn't been good enough to win at this level in his last seven races, all in grade one or grade two company. He has finished second in six of those seven races, and third in the other, which happens to have been the Maker's Mark Mile this past spring, where Smooth Like Strait led from the start and for the first six furlongs, then battled head and head for the last quarter mile before losing by a neck and a nose. He ran just as well in the 2021 Breeders' Cup Mile five months earlier, leading from the start and coming up a half-length short at the wire to be second with a career-best 119 figure. Likely to be on the lead early but battling with Somelikeithotbrown, who has the same running style, Smooth Like Strait will likely fight hard to the wire as always, but just like in his last seven races, he could give just enough ground to other horses in the final strides to come up short.
The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Annapolis (107), Atone (111), Classic Causeway (110), Dark Shift (GB) (102), Emaraaty (GB) (110), Gray's Fable (112), Greyes Creek (103), Masen (GB) (110) and Natural Power (IRE) (108).
Win Contenders (in probability/preference order):
Ivar (BRZ)
Casa Creed
Set Piece (GB)
Coolmore Turf Mile – Grade 1
Race 10 at Keeneland
Saturday, October 8 – Post Time 5:45 PM E.T.
One Mile on Turf
Three Years Olds and Upward
Purse: $1 Million
The post Equibase Analysis: Ivar Poised To Upset Coolmore Turf Mile appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.
