This Saturday's 154th running of the Grade 1, $1.5 Million Belmont Stakes features the return to the track of Rich Strike, who caused millions of people to say, “What just happened?” following the running of the Kentucky Derby. The colt, which had just one win in seven races on his resume prior to the Derby, emerged as the second highest longshot in history at 80-1 odds.
His biggest competition appears to be Grade 1 Peter Pan Stakes winner We the People and Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks runner-up Nest, with both those races having previously produced Belmont Stakes winners. Creative Minister enters the race off a third of nine finish in the Grade 1 Preakness Stakes, is bred to love the mile and one-half trip, and could improve, as could Derby fifth place finisher Mo Donegal, who won the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes last fall.
Golden Glider was beaten 10 lengths when second behind We the People in the Peter Pan and hopes to improve as well. The field also includes Barber Road, who finished sixth in the Derby and one length behind Mo Donegal, as well as Preakness fifth place finisher Skippylongstocking.
Analysis and main contender:
The connections of We the People couldn't have been more pleased when he drew the ground saving rail for this year's Belmont Stakes because it should enable the talented colt to take the lead from the start and control the pace in a race in which no other horse appears to like to run on the lead in the early stages. We the People was bred to do one thing and that is to run in longer races. He debuted in February at a mile and dominated by nearly six lengths, then one month later won as easily by a similar margin.
Moving way up in class to run in the Arkansas Derby as the last chance to gain points for a start in the Kentucky Derby, We the People was very well-regarded at 2 to 1 odds but started fifth and finished seventh. Whatever transpired in that race appears to have been an aberration, because in the Peter Pan Stakes four weeks ago over the Belmont main track, We the People returned to his previous form. This time he grabbed the lead from the start and continually improved, eventually winning by 10 lengths. The 101 
Equibase® Speed Figure not only was a career-best but is likely to be improved upon as the Belmont will be only his fifth career start.
Since the race, the colt put in a very strong :47.4 half-mile workout, which was ninth best of 66 on the day, and demonstrates he's holding top physical condition. Jockey Flavien Prat was aboard for the Peter Pan and rides back which is another strong factor. As a grandson of Tapit, whose progeny have had superb success in this race, and by relatively new sire Constitution, who has had two of six sons or daughters already win at the slightly shorter distance of 11 furlongs, We the People is the one to catch, and to beat.
Analysis Part Two – Second Tier Contenders
Creative Minister improved nicely in his first three races, culminating with a superb 108 effort winning an allowance race early on Kentucky Derby day. To put that in perspective, Rich Strike earned a 106 figure winning the Derby so on paper Creative Minister ran faster. Coming back on two weeks rest for the Preakness, Creative Minister managed only a mild rally and third place finish. Looking at the composition of the Belmont field, trying to determine who may be running second or third behind We the People appears to be the key to figuring out who may have a shot at upsetting the favorite.
Given that Creative Minister has been in third to fifth in the early stages of his last three races it is relatively safe to assume he will be one of those horses stalking the leader. Being a son of Creative Cause there is no doubt he will relish the distance as the sire has produced six winners from 11 horses which have won at this distance and even longer. His maternal grandfather is Tapit, and as mentioned that bloodline is a key to having the stamina for this race. As such, Creative Minister has a big shot to finish second or third and is not without a chance to win.
Nest has a chance to be the fourth filly to win the Belmont, with Rags to Riches the most recent to have done so in 2007. The filly has done little wrong in her career winning four of six and finishing second or third in the other two. Her best effort came one race before her last when winning the Ashland Stakes with authority by eight lengths. The 106 figure earned is as good as the Derby figure for Rich Strike and the field high figure of 108 earned by Creative Minister. Most importantly, Nest absolutely has the tactical speed to be second or third in the early stages of the Belmont Stakes as demonstrated in her two races this year before her runner-up effort in the Kentucky Oaks when she found herself seventh after a quarter mile and still sixth after a half-mile. With a strong will to succeed, Nest can't be ruled out as a factor in this year's Belmont Stakes.
Since by this point many will be asking “What about Rich Strike?” my answer is this colt's running style does not portend well for either the winner's historical profile or for this year's pace scenario. Rich Strike benefitted from a faster than average pace in the Derby, to put it mildly, as the first six furlongs was run in 1:10 after a :45 half mile. On average, he has been last or within three positions of last after a half-mile in his last six races. In spite of the perception the Belmont is won by closers because of its long distance which allows horse to wind up and gain momentum as the race increases, this is not the case. The race has been won primarily by horses which run the same tempo from start to finish, and so I am taking a stand against Rich Strike as a contender in this year's race.
Similarly, Mo Donegal is hard to endorse in spite of 103 and 101 figure efforts this year when winning the Wood Memorial and finishing third in the Derby.
The rest of the field, with their best representative Equibase® Speed Figures, is Barber Road (100), Golden Glider (99) and Skippylongstocking (102).
Top Win Contender:
We the People
Less Probable but also Win Contenders:
Creative Minister
Nest
Belmont Stakes presented by NYRA Bets – Grade 1
Race 11 at Belmont Park
Saturday, June 11 – Post Time 6:44 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Half
Three Years Old
Purse: $1.5 Million
T.V.: NBC 5 – 7 PM E.T.
The post Equibase Analysis: We The People Should Lead Belmont Stakes Field On Merry Chase appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.
