We're less than three months away from the first Saturday in May, which means it's time for detailed looks at the horses that could fill the Kentucky Derby starting gate with Andrew Champagne of Catena Media and The Saratogian's Pink Sheet.
Check the Paulick Report every week for updated rankings that include news, notes, and opinions on the 3-year-olds that figure to take center stage. Rankings may differ from a horse's place on the Kentucky Derby points list.
A few notes before we kick things off: Horses trained by Bob Baffert are not listed in these rankings, at least right now. Should rulings be overturned, and should horses like Messier become eligible to collect Kentucky Derby points, we'll include them (Messier would almost certainly top this list had he collected points from his romp in the Robert B. Lewis).
Also, horses that have gone to the sidelines, such as Jack Christopher, will not be included until it's clear they're at least working towards a Kentucky Derby prep.
Let's dive in!
Kentucky-bred contenders will be highlighted in red, and will receive additional analysis into their breeders, broodmares, and auction histories. Pedigree notes are written by Joe Nevills.
#1: Epicenter
Pedigree: Not This Time – Silent Candy (by Candy Ride)
Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Kentucky Derby points: 64
Epicenter suffered a hard-luck loss in the Lecomte, when he did all the dirty work up front and got nailed on the wire. However, the Risen Star was a totally different story. He demolished what certainly appeared to be one of the stronger fields we've seen to this point on the road to the Kentucky Derby. Smile Happy might've needed the race, but even so, that was an exceptional effort, one that stamps this front-running type as a major player.
Epicenter was bred in Kentucky by Westwind Farms, out of the Grade 3-placed stakes winner Silent Candy. He sold for $260,000 at the 2020 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. Westwind Farms bought Silent Candy pregnant to Scat Daddy for $130,000 in 2014.
#2: Smile Happy
Pedigree: Runhappy – Pleasant Smile (by Pleasant Tap)
Owner: Lucky Seven Stable
Trainer: Ken McPeek
Kentucky Derby points: 30
Hopes were high for Smile Happy's 3-year-old unveiling in the Grade 2 Risen Star. He was a pretty distant second that day, but I think there's reason for optimism. He hadn't run in nearly three months, and he was pretty far behind a moderate early pace. That race wasn't the goal, and I think there's reason to believe he'll take a big step forward wherever he runs next.
Smile Happy was bred in Kentucky by Moreau Bloodstock International Inc. and White Bloodstock LLC, out of the winning Pleasant Tap mare Pleasant Smile, whose four starters are all winners, also including the stakes-placed Wilko Rum, by Wilko. Smile Happy sold as a weanling for $175,000 at the 2019 Keeneland November Sale, and later brought $185,000 at the Keeneland September Sale.
#3: Classic Causeway
Pedigree: Giant's Causeway – Private World (by Thunder Gulch)
Owner: Kentucky West Racing and Cooper Clarke
Trainer: Brian Lynch
Kentucky Derby points: 16
It's tough to poke too many holes here. He cruised to an easy win in the G3 Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs, and he's taken steps forward in each of his four starts. Add in that he's bred to go as far as he's asked to run, and it's not hard to see Lynch heading to Kentucky with a real chance to record his first Derby triumph.
Classic Causeway is a homebred for Kentucky West Racing LLC and the Clarke M. Cooper Family Living Trust, out of the stakes winner Private World, who is the dam of five winners from eight runners. Private World is herself a Kentucky West homebred.
#4: White Abarrio
Pedigree: Race Day – Catching Diamonds (by Into Mischief)
Owner: C2 Racing Stable and La Milagrosa Stable
Trainer: Saffie Joseph, Jr.
Kentucky Derby points: 12
Saffie Joseph has emerged as one of the winningest trainers in Florida over the past few years, so it was only a matter of time before he found a serious Derby hopeful on his hands. In this case, White Abarrio stamped himself as one to watch with an authoritative score in the G3 Holy Bull. His lone loss came under the Twin Spires, when he was third in last year's Kentucky Jockey Club behind Smile Happy and Classic Causeway.
White Abarrio was bred in Kentucky by Spendthrift Farm, and he is the first foal out of the Into Mischief mare Catching Diamonds. He sold as a newly-turned yearling for $7,500 at the 2020 OBS Winter Mixed Sale. Spendthrift purchased Catching Diamonds as a yearling for $425,000.
#5: Mo Donegal
Pedigree: Uncle Mo – Callingmissbrown (by Pulpit)
Owner: Donegal Racing
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Kentucky Derby points: 12
Much has been made over the past few years about the decline of the G2 Remsen. Mo Donegal, however, topped Zandon in that event and was sent away the 8-5 favorite in the Holy Bull. He ran in spurts that day and showed some signs of inexperience, but he was moving best of all late and nearly got up for second despite conceding plenty of ground around the turn. Everything about him says he'll mature with distance and experience, and there's no denying Pletcher can move horses along very quickly.
Mo Donegal was bred in Kentucky by Ashview Farm and Colts Neck Stables. He brought $250,000 at the 2020 Keeneland September sale.
#6: Rattle N Roll
Pedigree: Connect – Jazz Tune (by Johannesburg)
Owner: Lucky Seven Stable
Trainer: Ken McPeek
Kentucky Derby points: 10
The same owner/trainer combination behind Smile Happy also teams up with Rattle N Roll, who hasn't run since a score in the G1 Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland in October. He's back on the work tab at Gulfstream Park, though, and barring any more speed bumps, he should have at least one more shot at valuable Derby points. We know there's talent here, as the field he beat in his signature win to date included Classic Causeway, among others.
Rattle N Roll was bred in Kentucky by St. Simon Place. The colt sold as a weanling for $55,000 at the 2019 Keeneland November Sale, then brought $210,000 as a yearling. St. Simon Place acquired Jazz Tune pregnant to Mineshaft for $20,000 in 2016, and sold her for $585,000 pregnant to Liam's Map at the 2021 Keeneland November Sale.
#7: Call Me Midnight
Pedigree: Midnight Lute – Overseen (by First Defence)
Owner: Peter Cantrell
Trainer: Keith Desormeaux
Kentucky Derby points: 10
Call Me Midnight was sent away at odds of 28-1 in the G3 Lecomte and proceeded to light up the tote board. In doing so, he rallied from last to first, and while the early pace was solid, it's not like they were flying, either. This pedigree doesn't exactly scream “two turns,” but Call Me Midnight beat some legitimate horses that day and showed maturity doing it. It sure seems like the faster they go early, the better his chances in any race figure to be.
Call Me Midnight was bred in Kentucky by Hartwell Farm, out of the Juddmonte Farms-bred Overseen. His siblings include the stakes-placed Bayerly Seen, by Bayern. Call Me Midnight sold as a weanling for $25,000, while Hartwell Farm bought the unraced Overseen as a broodmare prospect for $16,000.
#8: Simplification
Pedigree: Not This Time – Simply Confection (by Candy Ride)
Owner: Tami Bobo
Trainer: Antonio Sano
Kentucky Derby points: 4
Simplification earned a shot against tougher company with a wire-to-wire score in the Mucho Macho Man on New Year's Day. When he got that shot in the Holy Bull, he held his own, finishing second and holding off the fast-closing Mo Donegal. The waters are deep in Florida this time of year, but running second behind White Abarrio is nothing to scoff at.
#9: Charge It
Pedigree: Tapit – I'll Take Charge (by Indian Charlie)
Owner: Whisper Hill Farm
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Kentucky Derby points: 0
Our first zero-point runner on this list shouldn't stay that way for very long. He was incredibly impressive in breaking his maiden at Gulfstream Park by nearly nine lengths earlier this month. While Charge It may be a bit late to the party, there's plenty of time for him to rack up Derby points with just one or two starts. Pletcher took a similar route with Always Dreaming, who had zero Kentucky Derby points on the morning of the Florida Derby and was wearing roses just five weeks later.
Charge It is a Kentucky homebred for Mandy Pope's Whisper Hill Farm, out of the Indian Charlie mare I'll Take Charge. Pope bought the dam as a yearling for $2.2 million at the 2013 Keeneland September sale.
#10: In Due Time
Pedigree: Not This Time – Sweet Sweet Annie (by Curlin)
Owner: Edge Racing
Trainer: Kelly Breen
Kentucky Derby points: 0
In Due Time won what sure seemed like a loaded allowance race in early-February at Gulfstream Park and did so impressively. He drew off to win by nearly six lengths over a pair of Todd Pletcher-trained prospects, and any win like that early in a 3-year-old season is bound to attract attention. He'll likely get another class test in stakes company whenever he's entered next.
In Due Time was bred in Kentucky by Gary and Mary West Stables Inc., and he is the first foal out of the unraced Sweet Sweet Annie. The Wests bought Sweet Sweet Annie with In Due Time in utero for $115,000.
#11: Early Voting
Pedigree: Gun Runner – Amour d'Ete (by Tiznow)
Owner: Klaravich Stables
Trainer: Chad Brown
Kentucky Derby points: 10
Let's get it out of the way: The G3 Withers came back SLOW on figures. However, Aqueduct's main track is notoriously quirky, and weird times and speed figures are par for the course (wordplay not initially intended, but too appealing to ward off). There's still a chance this undefeated son of Gun Runner moves forward with another start or two under his belt, and Aqueduct's road to the Derby could provide a low-resistance route.
Early Voting was bred in Kentucky by Three Chimneys Farm, and he sold as a yearling for $200,000. Three Chimneys bought Amour d'Ete, a half-sister to top sire Speightstown, as a yearling for $1.75 million.
#12: Zandon
Pedigree: Upstart – Memories Prevail (by Creative Cause)
Owner: Jeff Drown
Trainer: Chad Brown
Kentucky Derby points: 14
Zandon ran Mo Donegal to a photo finish in the Remsen before finishing third in the Risen Star. If nothing else, we know that distance shouldn't be what gets him beat, as both of those races were contested at nine furlongs.
Zandon was bred in Kentucky by Brereton C. Jones of Airdrie Stud, and the colt is the first foal to race out of the unraced dam. Zandon sold as a yearling for $170,000 from the Airdrie Stud consignment.
#13: Shipsational
Pedigree: Midshipman – Regal Approach (by Thunder Gulch)
Owner: Iris Smith Stable
Trainer: Edward Barker
Kentucky Derby points: 4
A New York-bred, Shipsational won a pair of restricted stakes races at Belmont last fall before going to the sidelines for more than three months. He came back in the Sam F. Davis, and while no other runner was touching Classic Causeway, he picked up enough pieces to run second behind that much-the-best winner. If nothing else, Barker provides a fun story to root for. He's trained for nearly 30 years, and Shipsational is already his third-highest earner.
#14: Forbidden Kingdom
Pedigree: American Pharoah – Just Louise (by Five Star Day)
Owner: MyRacehorse and Spendthrift Farm
Trainer: Richard Mandella
Kentucky Derby points: 0
Someone forgot to tell Forbidden Kingdom that Bob Baffert was supposed to win the G2 San Vicente. Instead of that scenario unfolding, this one ran a career-best race to top a trio of Baffert trainees (say THAT five times fast). The lingering questions here are stamina-related. American Pharoah was a Triple Crown winner, but the presence of sprinter Five Star Day on the bottom of the pedigree makes one wonder if this talented colt truly wants to go two turns.
Forbidden Kingdom was bred in Kentucky by Springhouse Farm, out of the Grade 3 winner Just Louise. He sold to his current ownership for $300,000 at the 2020 Fasig-Tipton Selected Yearling Sale. Springhouse Farm acquired Just Louise pregnant to Malibu Moon for $150,000 at the 2013 Fasig-Tipton November sale.
#15: Pappacap
Pedigree: Gun Runner – Pappascat (by Scat Daddy)
Owner: Rustlewood Farm
Trainer: Mark Casse
Kentucky Derby points: 14
Pappacap showed a lot during a busy 2-year-old campaign, when he was second in both the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and American Pharoah Stakes out west. He then ran third in the Lecomte behind Call Me Midnight and Epicenter, but flopped when eighth in the Risen Star. Perhaps that dud is an outlier, but it's worth noting that he's winless since being stretched out to two turns last fall.
#16: Major General
Pedigree: Constitution – No Mo Lemons (by Uncle Mo)
Owner: WinStar Farm and Siena Farm
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Kentucky Derby points: 10
One of Pletcher's most promising 2-year-olds last year, Major General broke his maiden in his debut at Saratoga and followed up with a win in the G3 Iroquois at Churchill Downs. He's been away from the races since September, but is working consistently at Palm Beach Downs ahead of his 3-year-old debut.
Major General was bred in Kentucky by Circular Road Breeders, who also bred the unraced dam, No Mo Lemons. Major General sold as a newly-turned yearling for $265,000 at the 2020 Keeneland January Sale, then he brought $420,000 later that year at the Keeneland September sale.
#17: Slow Down Andy
Pedigree: Nyquist – Edwina E (by Square Eddie)
Owner: Reddam Racing
Trainer: Doug O'Neill
Kentucky Derby points: 10
Slow Down Andy's claim to fame is a win over Messier in the G2 Los Alamitos Futurity. That matters, and I'm not totally willing to toss him after his sixth-place finish in the Risen Star. He was wide that day, and perhaps a return to California will get him back to his best form. His full brother, Team Merchants, is a stakes-winning router, and he's already shown an ability to get a distance of ground himself.
#18: My Prankster
Pedigree: Into Mischief – My Wandy's Girl (by Flower Alley)
Owner: Robert and Lawana Low
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Kentucky Derby points: 1
A winter trip to Florida seems to have done My Prankster a world of good. After running fourth in the G1 Champagne and second in the Bowman Mill, he's strung together back-to-back wins, including one in the G3 Swale. Distance remains a question mark here, but My Prankster's flashed plenty of talent going shorter and may have earned another swing at Kentucky Derby points between now and May.
My Prankster was bred in Kentucky by Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings, out of the Grade 2 winner and Puerto Rican champion My Wandy's Girl. He sold for $600,000 at the 2020 Fasig-Tipton Selected Yearling Sale. Stonestreet purchased My Wandy's Girl as a broodmare prospect for $700,000 at the 2014 Keeneland November sale.
#19: Giant Game
Pedigree: Giant's Causeway – Game for More (by More Than Ready)
Owner: West Point Thoroughbreds and Albaugh Family Stables
Trainer: Dale Romans
Kentucky Derby points: 4
Giant Game responded pretty well to a stiff class test when third in the G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile. He then went away for three months, came back in the Holy Bull, and ran a clunker when eighth beaten 24 lengths by White Abarrio. One poor effort isn't the end of the world, though, and this one's flashed enough potential to hint that his last-out dud may not be indicative of any future performances.
Giant Game was bred in Kentucky by H. Allen Poindexter, out of the multiple stakes-placed Game For More, who Poindexter bought for $8,000 in 2011. Game for More's runners also include Grade 2 winner Isotherm (by Lonhro) and Grade 1-placed Gio Game (by Gio Ponti). Giant Game sold for $500,000 at the 2020 Fasig-Tipton Selected Yearling Sale.
#20: Commandperformance
Pedigree: Union Rags – Smitten (by Tapit)
Owner: Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Kentucky Derby points: 6
Still a maiden, Commandperformance ran second to Jack Christopher in the G1 Champagne before checking in fourth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. He hasn't raced since, but resurfaced on the work tab in early February and has a pedigree that suggests he'll take to 10 furlongs like a duck to water.
Commandperformance was bred in Kentucky by Damara Farm, out of the stakes-placed Smitten. The colt sold as a yearling for $220,000.
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