Millions of kids around the world every day pick up a basketball and spend an inordinate amount of time trying to get the round ball in the basket and some become very good at it. Most kids however find shooting to be boring and would rather try all those fancy dribbles and spectacular dunks that bring the crowd to their feet.
Game 4 of the NBA finals will be contested in South Beach tonight and on the court will be several millionaires applying their trade. Seven foot giants like O’Neal, Nowitzkie, Mourning and Dampier can slam the ball into the hoop without dropping a bead of sweat, yet put them on the foul line and with the exception of Nowitzkie, the chances of them making even 1 of 2 is not very good!
In Game 1 when the Mavericks won 90-80 the Miami Heat were just 7-19 (36.8) from the foul line and only O’Neal and Wade attempted any shots, while the Mav’s were 20-26 (76.9) and Dirk was 6-6. The margin of victory was 10 points and the Mavericks outscored the Heat 20-7 (13 points) from the line.
In Game 2 the Mav’s won 99-85 and the Heat were 20-32 (62.5) while the Mavericks were 23-28 (.82.1) and O’Neal 1-7 while Dirk was 10-11. Even though the Mavericks only outscored the Heat by 3 at the line, their percentage made was far higher 82% to 62% and it had a huge affect on the outcome.
Game 3 which was the first victory of the series for the Heat saw the Mavericks have for them, an atrocious night at the free throw line. Dallas was 18-26 (69.2) and Dirk was 10-12, but one of those misses cost them a chance at overtime. Meanwhile the Heat shot just 58% but actually outscored the Maverick 20-18 at the line and those 2 points were the margin of victory.
While the experts all try and explain how the Mavericks Eric Dampier is doing a great job controlling O’Neal, the fact of the matter is he was 4-6 from the free throw line, including 2-2 in the dying moments when the game was on the line.
The point spread yesterday opened on most betting shops at Miami -4-3.5 and was quickly hammered down to Miami -2. When a line moves that much 36 hours before a game, it is a fair assumption that the money being wagered is sharp money by professional bettors. As game time nears the public or recreational bettor will get involved and many bet with their heart not their head.
With so many close finishes in this years playoffs, don’t be surprised if this game comes down to the wire again. Just look at who makes the most free throw and that will give you the ultimate winner!
Bob Acton
