Leopardstown The Paddy’s Rewards Club Steeplechase (Grade 1) 13.12 UK Time
Marine Nationale possesses top-class form from last season, winning the Champion Chase at Cheltenham on good to soft.
He followed up with a Grade 1 success at Punchestown on yielding ground, which matches today’s conditions.
He has a course and distance win here.
Off the track since April, but his fitness should be adequate for a horse of this calibre, with proven experience in elite contests.
Found A Fifty is in excellent recent form, winning his last two starts over fences.
He beat Majborough by one and a half lengths at Cork on soft ground most recently.
Prior to that, he won at Navan on soft, beating Hercule Du Seuil.
He handles yielding ground well, with strong performances on similar going.
He has course and distance success.
Fitness is sharp after recent outings, and he shows progressive class.
Majborough ran well in his latest start, finishing a close second to Found A Fifty at Cork on soft.
He previously won at Punchestown on yielding, demonstrating preference for this going.
He has a course and distance placing.
As a young horse, he remains lightly raced over fences but shows ample experience from hurdles.
Fitness looks good following his reappearance.
Only By Night impressed with a win at Naas on soft in her most recent run, equipped with cheekpieces.
She was second in high-class novice chases at Punchestown and Cheltenham on yielding and good to soft earlier.
She handles yielding ground effectively.
No specific Leopardstown form, but suits left-handed tracks.
Current fitness is strong, with solid handicap and graded experience.
Solness has respectable form but was behind Marine Nationale at Punchestown and Cheltenham last season on yielding and good to soft.
He won this race last year on soft here, indicating course affinity.
Off since April, fitness may need the run.
He performs on yielding ground, with placed efforts.
Captain Guinness pulled up at Navan on soft in his latest outing.
He was second at Punchestown on yielding before that, showing he acts on the ground.
He has experience in Grade 1 chases but recent form is patchy.
No recent Leopardstown success, though competitive in similar contests.
Fitness questionable after poor reappearance.
Hercule Du Seuil finished third at Navan on soft last time, behind Found A Fifty.
He won at Killarney on yielding earlier in the year.
Handles yielding well, with wins on it.
Limited recent course form, but experienced over fences.
Fitness appears sound.
Simulation Results:
Marine Nationale 42.15%, Found A Fifty 27.84%, Majborough 18.92%, Only By Night 6.73%, Solness 2.36%, Hercule Du Seuil 1.00%, Captain Guinness 1.00%.
Equivalent fractional odds: Marine Nationale 11/8, Found A Fifty 13/5, Majborough 4/1, Only By Night 14/1, Solness 41/1, Hercule Du Seuil 99/1, Captain Guinness 99/1.
The best bet is Marine Nationale.
The two value selections are Marine Nationale (live 15/8 greater than fair 11/8) and Found A Fifty (live 5/1 greater than fair 13/5).
There are no steamer bets, as no horses meet the criteria of early prices higher than live by at least four points among those with the greatest chances.
Trends based on last 12 years:
Found A Fifty fits many key trends strongly.
Aged eight, he aligns with the preference for horses seven or older.
He has a rating of 164, well above 150.
He won his last run in the Hilly Way Chase at Cork, one of the three recent winners to come from that contest, and it was within 20 days.
He has three previous runs at Leopardstown with one win, meeting the course form criteria.
His distance form includes multiple runs and wins over 15-17 furlongs.
Chase experience is extensive with 19 runs and nine wins, exceeding the minimums.
He has graded wins in his record.
This season, he has one run and one win.
Captain Guinness matches the age trend at 11 years old.
Rated 160, above the threshold.
He did not win his last run but competed within 40 days.
Last run was not the Hilly Way.
He has seven previous Leopardstown runs but no wins there.
Distance and chase form are solid with ample runs and seven wins.
He possesses graded victories.
Season form includes one run without a win.
Hercule Du Seuil fits age at eight.
Rating of 151 meets the minimum.
He placed third in his last outing within 40 days, not a win and not from the Hilly Way.
One previous Leopardstown run with no win.
Strong distance form with multiple successes.
Chase record shows 17 runs and nine wins.
Has graded wins.
One season run without victory.
Majborough misses the age preference at five years old.
However, his 164 rating is high.
He finished second in his last run, the Hilly Way at Cork, within 20 days.
Two Leopardstown runs with one win.
Distance form adequate but wins total four, below the five preferred by many winners.
Chase experience includes seven runs and four wins.
Boasts two Grade 1 victories.
One season run without a win.
Only By Night aligns with age at seven.
But her rating of 148 falls below 150.
She won her last run within 48 days, though not the Hilly Way.
No noted previous Leopardstown runs or wins.
Distance form shows multiple efforts and seven wins.
Chase record of 13 runs and seven wins.
Has graded successes.
One season run with a win.
Solness fits age at seven.
Rated 161, above threshold.
He did not win his last run, and it was 242 days ago, missing the 55-day recency.
Not from the Hilly Way.
Strong course form with four runs and three wins.
Ample distance runs and wins.
21 chase runs with seven wins.
Multiple Grade 1 victories.
No runs this season.
Marine Nationale matches age at eight.
Top rating of 170.
He won his last run but 242 days ago, outside 55 days.
Not the Hilly Way.
Four Leopardstown runs with one win.
Excellent distance form.
12 chase runs with eight wins.
Multiple Grade 1 triumphs.
No runs this season.
In order of preference: Found A Fifty, Captain Guinness, Hercule Du Seuil, Majborough, Only By Night, Solness, Marine Nationale.
