Win £250,000 With BetMGM’s Golden Goals Handicap (Class 5) Newcastle 18.15:
Jesmond Dawn merits top billing after a valiant near-miss here over this precise course and distance last month, where he quickened purposefully to lead inside the final furlong before just being caught in the dying strides.
That effort, on the all-weather surface where he has consistently raised his game, highlighted his sharp current condition and suitability for these testing bends, and with just a minor penalty to carry, he appears primed to go one better in this field.
His experience in handling moderate gallops adds to his appeal, particularly from a midfield draw that should allow him to stalk the pace without undue expenditure.
King’s School commands respect following a battling victory over seven furlongs at Newcastle in late December last year, where he saw off a subsequent winner with evident relish after travelling comfortably throughout.
He has shown a marked affinity for this tapeta track, with all his best efforts emerging under standard conditions, and his ongoing fitness from a winter campaign suggests he remains a potent force at this level.
Flying Fletcher arrives on the back of a respectable fifth over six furlongs here earlier this month, keeping on gamely despite being denied a clear run at a crucial stage.
That run offered clear evidence of his well-being on the all-weather, where he has notched prior successes, and the step up in trip should unlock more from his grinding style, especially given his low draw that favours an economical passage.
Bobby Joe Leg has endured a leaner spell lately, with a sixth-placing at Southwell in early April representing his most recent effort of note before a summer break.
He boasts a strong record around these turns, including multiple triumphs over similar distances on tapeta, and a freshened-up return could see him revive if the surface suits his renewed vigour.
Gressington shaped with encouragement when third at Redcar 28 days ago, staying on strongly in the closing stages of a seven-furlong handicap despite racing prominently in a race lacking pace.
His all-weather exploits have been laced with promise, particularly at tracks with undulations like this, and with proven stamina at the trip, he holds every chance to build on that grit from a handy stall.
Asian Journey enters after a subdued showing at Ffos Las in early July, where he faded having shown early dash over a mile that stretched his limits.
However, he has flashed snippets of ability on all-weather surfaces in novice company, and a drop into handicaps for the first time could coax improvement if the leaders set a stronger rhythm.
Novak has been consistent without quite striking lately, filling tenth over six furlongs here in November after a tardy break from the gates that cost him dearly.
His recent second at Southwell over this distance confirmed his affinity for tapeta, and with regular action keeping him race-fit, he remains competitively handicapped to challenge if breaking sharper.
The Cookstown Cafu has course form to call upon, having placed here previously, but his latest tenth over six furlongs 10 days ago suggested the return to sprinting didn’t quite suit.
He copes well with standard going from past efforts, and the return to seven furlongs might elicit a more fluent display, though greater sharpness will be needed.
Bajan Bandit endured traffic issues when eighth over course and distance last month, but he kept on late once in the clear, hinting at retained ability.
His all-weather record is solid, with prior placings underscoring his track suitability, and a more patient ride could see him rally better in this company.
Maxi Boy laboured to last in a higher-grade affair here over seven furlongs in November, beaten a long way after being hampered in running.
He has the tools to do better on tapeta, but his recent lack of fluency tempers expectations without signs of a revival.
Wilde And Dandy faces a stiff task on the evidence of recent toils, with a distant finish at Wolverhampton last out offering little cheer.
The all-weather holds no fears, yet his current enthusiasm appears waning in handicaps.
Simulation Results:
Jesmond Dawn: 23.67% (implied 15/4).
King’s School: 17.89% (implied 9/2).
Flying Fletcher: 15.45% (implied 11/2).
Gressington: 12.34% (implied 7/1).
Novak: 10.23% (implied 8/1).
Bobby Joe Leg: 9.11% (implied 10/1).
Asian Journey: 6.78% (implied 14/1).
The Cookstown Cafu: 4.53% (implied 21/1).
Bajan Bandit: 0.00% (implied N/A).
Maxi Boy: 0.00% (implied N/A).
Wilde And Dandy: 0.00% (implied N/A).
The best bet is Jesmond Dawn, his track mastery and closing kick affording him the acme in the model.
Value selections spotlight Gressington at 9/1 live, undervalued relative to 7/1 implied odds considering his recent staying power.
Steamer bets nominate King’s School and Flying Fletcher, both with live prices (4/1 and 9/4) shortening from early marks (9/2 and 5/1) while featuring among the elite projections.
