A field of 10 3-year-old fillies looks to enter the starting gate for the Grade 2, $200,000 Sands Point Stakes at the Belmont At the Big A meet at Aqueduct, with three others hoping rain necessitates moving the 1 1/8-mile race from turf – as scheduled – to dirt, as they are entered for the main track only.
Leading the field are the top two finishers in the similar G3 Jockey Club Oaks Invitational Stakes run four weeks ago. Irish-bred Eternal Hope won that race in her U.S. debut after coming over from Europe, with Neecie Marie just a head behind in second. Other horses coming out of that race are hoping to improve markedly, such as Highland Grace (fourth), Quarrel (fifth) and Stephanie's Charm (sixth).
Another Irish-bred, Be Your Best, left her New York base of operations when last seen in August for a strong effort in the G1 Del Mar Oaks and could have a say in the outcome, as could recent Virginia Oaks runner-up Root Cause. In the Virginia Oaks, Alpha Bella led late and was just a neck behind Root Cause so appears to fit at this level as well. Leave No Trace won the G1 Spinaway Stakes on dirt in the summer of 2022 but has never run on turf and is winless in four races since then. Soviet Excess has finished third in three straight stakes on the turf, most recently in the Winter Memories Stakes four weeks ago.
Among the trio entered for dirt only, Ichiban recently won the Fleet Treat Stakes at Saratoga, while neither Amanda's Folly nor Essaouira is a stakes winner.
Top Contenders
Eternal Hope brought a two for five record (with a pair of third-place finishes) into her U.S. debut four weeks ago in the Jockey Club Oaks Invitational Stakes, run at the longer distance of 1 3/8 miles. After being as far back as 23 lengths, behind a faster than average pace but not one which was sizzling hot, Eternal Hope commenced an impressive rally to get to within two lengths of the lead with an eighth of a mile to go, before prevailing by a neck. That effort earned a 97 Equibase Speed Figure which is the second best last race figure in the field, and the best recent winning figure in the field.
Likely to run even better in her second local start, Eternal Hope looks highly likely to add to trainer Charles Appleby's amazing record in graded stakes turf routes in North America over the last four years, which stands at 20-10-6 in 48 races. With jockey Jamie Spencer back in the saddle just as he was for the win last month, this filly looks exceptionally tough to beat.
That being said, considering Neecie Marie got within a head of Eternal Hope in the Jockey Club Oaks Invitational, the Cross Traffic filly must be considered a contender. Neecie Marie has won three of five career races on grass, missed by a neck in the other and finished off the board in one more. The one poor effort came on a soft course so is irrelevant when assessing her chances here (unless Saturday's course condition is similar). She's improved from an 85 figure three races back, to 93, to the same 97 figure Eternal Hope earned and her pattern suggests even better today. In the Oaks Invitational, Neecie Marie was fifth, 21 lengths back, after a half-mile, whereas Eternal Hope (IRE) was seventh, 23 lengths back, so she was outfinished by the winner. Nevertheless, this filly has a lot of talent and is definitely a contender to win this race.
Root Cause may be just a step behind the top two in terms of speed figures and the quality of races she's run, but as a lightly raced 3-year-old for Chad Brown could improve markedly enough to leap frog over the top two and post the upset. Root Cause has run only one poor race in five starts, when eighth in May at Churchill Downs. She finished second in her debut last summer then returned to the races seven months later with a strong win at this 1 1/8-mile trip. Then came the poor effort, but Root Cause improved to an 83 figure in June then following 2 1/2 months off, ran a big race when rallying from eighth to second, beaten a head, in the Virginia Oaks. That effort earned her a 92 figure and so in her second start off the layoff even better is possible.
The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Alpha Bella (92), Be Your Best (IRE) (96), Highland Grace (95), Leave No Trace (90), Quarrel (92), Soviet Excess (101) and Stephanie's Charm (85). Those entered for the main track only are Amanda's Folly (85), Essaouira (92) and Ichiban (82)
Top Win Contenders:
Eternal Hope
Neecie Marie
Root Cause
Sands Point Stakes – Grade 2, $200,000
Saturday, Oct. 14 – Race 2 at Belmont at the Big A; Post Time 1:08 p.m. ET
Fillies, 3-Year-Olds, 1 1/8 Miles on Turf
Ellis Starr is national racing analyst for Equibase.
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