Paddington is understandably the red-hot favorite for Wednesday's £1,000,000 Juddmonte International Stakes at York, but he will face stiff opposition from the older Mostahdaf if John and Thady Gosden's 5-year-old is as good as he looked in Royal Ascot's Prince of Wales's Stakes.
The Juddmonte International is a “Win and You're In” race for the Breeders' Cup Classic, which will be held this fall at Santa Anita Park.
The field for this key QIPCO British Champions Series middle-distance race has been reduced to four following the unfortunate injury sustained by last year's Cazoo Derby winner Desert Crown on Sunday. It's a classy one nevertheless, featuring the winners of eight Group 1s, and Mostahdaf, on whom a soon to retire Frankie Dettori deputizes for the suspended Jim Crowley, has plenty going for him.
Angus Gold, representing owners the Shadwell Estates', does not underestimate Paddington, but the operation he manages has punched well above its weight since it was restructured following the death of Sheikh Hamdan in March 2021. He is entitled to be optimistic of a repeat win for the stud following the spectacular triumph of the brilliant Baaeed 12 months ago.
Mostahdaf is no Baaeed, and he was a 10-1 chance in a field of six at Royal Ascot, but he had shown glimpses of that level of form before and there was no mistaking his total authority in a strong field. Gold admitted he was a little taken aback by the ease with which Mostahdaf won, but he is not questioning the form.
He said: “If I'm honest I was a bit surprised to see him win quite like that, but I probably shouldn't have been after the way he won in Saudi earlier this year. He was very impressive there and really quickened.
“I thought he ran well in the Sheema Classic at Meydan too, where Equinox just killed him off the bend and he didn't get home, but I was still surprised to see just how well he was travelling against a proper Group 1 field at Royal Ascot, and just how well he quickened. I'd probably underestimated him, and it was great to see.”
Dettori has won the Juddmonte five times, but surprisingly the last occasion was on Authorized 16 years ago. Although not a regular rider for Shadwell, his relationship with the Gosden's made him the obvious choice to replace Crowley.
Gold said: “Frankie has had a sit on the horse. It was nothing testing, but he seemed very happy and John and his team were happy too.”
Mostahdaf is one of four individual Group 1 winners this year for Shadwell, and that's from a much-reduced team of older horses in particular, so the streamlining policy could hardly be working better. Just as pleasing has been the obvious joy that continued high level success has brought to Sheikh Hamdan's daughter Sheikha Hissa.
Gold said: “It's been wonderful to see Sheikha Hissa's enthusiasm and enjoyment. We've had a lot of luck and a lot of fun.
“I think we had three Group 1 wins in 20021, six in 2022, and four individual winners this year, with Anmaat in France followed by Mostahdaf at Royal Ascot, Hukum in the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes and Al Husn in the Qatar Nassau Stakes. We could never have expected such success.
“Going into last year we knew Baaeed was potentially a very exciting horse, but they have to go and do it again and we weren't expecting so many other stakes winners to back him up. This year has almost been even more satisfying as I think we've only kept 14 older horses in training and four of them have won Group 1s. The idea obviously was to keep the ones we knew had ability, and they really have delivered.”
The John and Thady Gosden-trained Mostahdaf will be joined by stable-mate Nashwa, who was only third in the Nassau but is no stranger to the limelight and is bidding for a fourth Group 1 win following success last year in the Prix de Diane and the Nassau, and last month in Newmarket's Falmouth Stakes, where she won in stunning style.
This will be Nashwa's first race against males and success here for fillies and mares, once common, is rare these days. Arabian Queen in 2015 was the first to triumph since 1998, but that will not be on the mind of regular rider Hollie Doyle, who believes the Nassau defeat can be excused.
Doyle said: “I'm always delighted to be getting back on Nashwa and I thought it was a solid run at Goodwood considering the slow pace and not very nice ground. They had an easy time on the front end and Nashwa moved up like the best filly in the race, but she'd possibly been further back than ideal on that ground, which probably blunted the turn of foot she showed in the Falmouth.
“She takes her races very well, and I'm hearing good reports from home through Teddy Grimthorpe (Lord Grimthorpe, the owner's racing manager).”
Paddington is entitled to his dominance in the market after four successive Group 1 wins this year in a campaign that continues to closely mirror that of the 'Iron Horse', Giant's Causeway, who in 2000 was the first of Aidan O'Brien's six winners of this race when beating old rival Kalanisi by a head in an epic finish.
The Siyouni colt was winning his third race of the season when landing the Irish 2000 Guineas, in which Giant's Causeway was second, and since then he has emulated his predecessor by beating many of the best around in the St James's Palace Stakes, the Coral-Eclipse and the Qatar Sussex Stakes.
There are clearly many similarities, but there's a key difference too in that whereas Giant's Causeway regularly had to really tough it out in order to prevail by a narrow margin, Paddington has usually won by clear daylight, justifying O'Brien's claim that he is much the quicker of the pair. He will be hard to beat.
The field is completed by the King Power Racing-owned The Foxes, who earned himself a place in the Betfred Derby with a good win in the Dante Stakes over the Juddmonte course and distance in May. Andrew Balding's colt found himself further back than ideal at Epsom after going down on his nose at the start, but he improved to have every chance of a place before stronger stayers prevailed and he had to settle for fifth.
Oisin Murphy, who enjoyed a career highlight on Roaring Lion here in 2018, again rides the colt, who dropped back in trip for the Belmont Derby last time but found himself in rear once more following a slow start from his outside draw. The Foxes made ground hand over fist late on to snatch second, but he never quite looked like reaching the winner Far Bridge.
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