There's an old saying in horse racing that “weight can stop a freight train.” It might not be true in American racing anymore since there are so few handicap races and the weight spread in them is not that large. Gone are the days of Forego, Kelso, Dr. Fager trying to overcome large imposts in handicap races. Nobody would ever argue that Quiet Little Table was the equal of Forego but with only 114 pounds he was able to beat Forego who was assigned 138 pounds in the 1977 Grade 1 Suburban Handicap at Belmont Park.
Most races in Hong Kong are handicap races. The class system is designed to have horses race against each other with assigned weight differences trying to make their chances equal. The highest weight – within a given class rating – a horse can be assigned is 135 pounds. The lowest is 115 pounds. Most handicap classes have a 20-pound difference between the high and low weight.
Winning a race results in at least an increase of five pounds. A dominant winner could go up at least 10 pounds so part of the art of riding in Hong Kong is to win by as little as possible. The higher a horse's rating, the higher the purse level they can run for.
Class 5 has a purse of HK$810,000.
Class 4 has a purse of HK$1,080,000.
Class 3 has a purse of HK$1,725,000 going short and HK$1,900,000 going long.
Class 2 has a purse of HK$2,640,000 going short and HK$2,900,000 going long.
Class 1 has a purse of HK$3,465,000 going short and HK$3,900,000 going long.
A horse that is stuck in a class level does not get the benefit of racing for more money and has to face progressive horses that are moving up in ratings. Horses that move up an entire class usually start at the bottom and get to carry low weight. A horse is better off racing in a higher class with low weight than a lower class with high weight since the purse differential is so large.
Let's take a deep dive into the five class levels:
Through April 9, 2023, there were 566 races run at Sha Tin and Happy Valley. 25 of them were stakes races, 1 was a Griffin race and the other 540 were handicap races (95.4 percent).
The 540 handicap races are divided into five classes. Class 1 usually has horses that are rated 100 or above and can attract horses that are stakes quality. There have been 11 Class 1 races run so far with 1 favorite winning (9.09 percent). The average field size is 9.18. And the average win price is $13.17.
Class 2 races are for horse rated approximately 80 to 100. There have been 43 of them run so far this season with 14 winning favorites (32.56 percent). The average field size is 10.63 starters per race and the average win price is $14.26.
Stakes races, Class 1 and Class 2 races account for 13.96 percent of the races so the remaining three class levels account for 86.04 percent of all the races. These are the bulk of the races that comprise Hong Kong racing and merit the most attention.
Class 4 races are for horses rated between 40 and 60. Horses that are making their career debuts are assigned a rating of 52 so many future stars come through Class 4 races. There have been 237 of them run, the most of any class of racing (41.87 percent). There were 77 winning favorites (32.49 percent) in Class 4 races. The average field size is 12.47 starters per race and the average win price is $19.28.
The next most popular class of rating is Class 3, which is for horses rated between 60 and 80. There have been 163 Class 3 races run so far (28.79 percent) and favorites have won 58 times (35.58 percent). The average field size is 12.28 and the average win price is 19.03.
Class 5 races are for horse rated between 0 and 40. There is little upward mobility in Class 5 so it is usually a battle of familiar horses. There have been 86 Class 5 races run so far (15.19 percent) and 22 favorites have won (25.58 percent). The average field size is a healthy 12.67 starters per race and the average win price is $18.23.
There is a slight correlation between class and form with the higher class races being more formful. Part of this is due to the smaller field sizes of the better races and the prevalence of heavy favorites.
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