The Kentucky Derby prep schedule is in full swing, which means it's time for detailed looks at the horses that could fill the starting gate with Andrew Champagne of Catena Media and The Saratogian's Pink Sheet.
Check back with the Paulick Report regularly for updated rankings that include news, notes, and opinions on the 3-year-olds that figure to take center stage.
Spring is upon us, and with it comes some of the final Kentucky Derby prep races of the season. Those include, of course, this weekend's Grade 1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream and G1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn. The winners of those races receive 100 Kentucky Derby points and ensure spots in that race's starting gate.
With the schedule in mind, this list is going to represent a bit of a hybrid moving forward. There are some horses that I think can do damage on the first Saturday in May that are on the outside looking in because several horses have enough points to make the Derby field. In order to get back on the list, they'll have to earn more points.
The top of this list, though, hasn't been in question for quite some time. With that in mind, let's get to it.
Kentucky-bred contenders will be highlighted in red, and will receive additional analysis into their breeders, broodmares, and auction histories. Pedigree notes are written by Joe Nevills.
#1: Forte
Pedigree: Violence – Queen Caroline (by Blame)
Owner: Repole Stable, St. Elias Stable
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Breeder: South Gate Farm (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 90
Despite drawing post #11 in a 12-horse field, Forte will be a heavy favorite in the Florida Derby. Todd Pletcher wasn't crazy about the post, but any sort of improvement second off the layoff will make last year's champion 2-year-old male very, very difficult to beat. Consider this, though: If you think Forte is the Derby winner, you may very well be rooting against him Saturday. While a loss would drive his price up a bit, a win likely makes him the shortest-priced favorite in a May Kentucky Derby since Point Given went off at 9/5 in 2001.
Forte was bred in Kentucky by South Gate Farm, out of the multiple stakes-winning Blame mare Queen Caroline. He sold for $110,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. Amy Moore of South Gate Farm bought Queen Caroline as a yearling for $170,000 at the 2014 Keeneland September sale.
#2: Tapit Trice
Pedigree: Tapit – Danzatrice (by Dunkirk)
Owner: Whisper Hill Farm, Gainesway Stable
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Breeder: Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 50
Tapit Trice was visually impressive in the G2 Tampa Bay Derby. He broke slowly and was pumped on throughout by Luis Saez, but ran by them all and looked like a horse that will have no problems with even more distance. There are some red flags here, though. He's broken slowly a few times now, and it's not like he was rallying past world-beaters. It might be far tougher to run like that against tougher competition, but the plan is for him to get that test in next month's G2 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland.
Tapit Trice was bred in Kentucky by Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd., out of the Grade 3-placed multiple stakes-winning Dunkirk mare Danzatrice. Tapit Trice sold to Mandy Pope's Whisper Hill Farm for $1.3 million at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. A half-sister to champion Jaywalk, Danzatrice was a $105,000 purchase by Gainesway at the 2014 OBS Spring 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale.
#3: Hit Show
Pedigree: Candy Ride – Actress (by Tapit)
Owner: Gary and Mary West
Trainer: Brad Cox
Breeder: Gary & Mary West Stables Inc. (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 20
A winner of three of four starts to date, Hit Show cruised home to win the G3 Withers at Aqueduct. It didn't seem like a great field, but he won the right way, overcoming some traffic and having plenty left when the field turned for home. Last year's Withers produced an eventual Preakness winner in Early Voting, and this year's renewal might age well, too.
Hit Show was bred in Kentucky by Gary & Mary West Stables Inc., out of the Tapit mare Actress, who was herself a Grade 2 winner as a homebred for the Wests.
#4: Practical Move
Pedigree: Practical Joke – Ack Naughty (by Afleet Alex)
Owner: Amestoy, Amestoy, and Beasley
Trainer: Tim Yakteen
Breeder: Chad Brown & Head of Plains Partners (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 60
Practical Move's win in the G2 San Felipe assures him of enough points to make the Kentucky Derby field, and it was his second straight graded stakes win on the SoCal circuit. If there's anything to nitpick, it's that he had a perfect trip that day, but on the other hand, it was his tactical speed that got him into striking position in the first place.
Practical Move was bred in Kentucky by Chad Brown and Head of Plains Partners, out of the stakes-placed Afleet Alex mare Ack Naughty. He sold to his current ownership for $230,000 at the 2022 OBS Spring sale. Ack Naughty was recently sold, pregnant to Upstart, to Chester and Mary Broman for $500,000 at this year's Keeneland January sale.
#5: Geaux Rocket Ride
Pedigree: Candy Ride – Beyond Grace (by Uncle Mo)
Owner: Pin Oak Stud
Trainer: Richard Mandella
Breeder: OXO Equine LLC (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 20
It spoke volumes that Richard Mandella opted to run Geaux Rocket Ride in the San Felipe off of a single prior outing. The colt rewarded his Hall of Fame conditioner with a strong second, one where he re-rallied after being shuffled back on the far turn. In doing so, he showed plenty of grit, and that, combined with a pedigree that hints more distance will be right up his alley, inspires some confidence moving forward.
Geaux Rocket Ride was bred in Kentucky by Larry Best's OXO Equine, out of the the unplaced Uncle Mo mare Beyond Grace. He sold for $350,000 at the 2021 Fasig-Tipton July Yearling Sale. Best purchased Beyond Grace for $1.5 million at the 2017 Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream Selected 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale.
#6: Kingsbarns
Pedigree: Uncle Mo – Lady Tapit (by Tapit)
Owner: Spendthrift Farm
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Breeder: Parks Investment Group, LLC (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 100
Kingsbarns never looked like a loser in Saturday's G2 Louisiana Derby. He was part of a very slow pace and had plenty left turning for home. It wasn't the fastest Louisiana Derby on record, and a number of closers didn't fire (possibly due to the race shape more than anything else), but Kingsbarns passed his first significant test. In addition, his win going 1 3/16 miles indicates that, if he doesn't run well in Kentucky, it won't be because of that race's 1 1/4-mile distance.
Kingsbarns was bred in Kentucky by Parks Investment Group, out of the Grade 3-placed Tapit mare Lady Tapit, who is herself a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Gozzip Girl. After bringing $250,000 at the 2021 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga sale, the colt sold to Spendthrift Farm for $800,000 at last year's Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream Select 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale.
#7: Angel of Empire
Pedigree: Classic Empire – Armony's Angel (by To Honor and Serve)
Owner: Albaugh Family Stables
Trainer: Brad Cox
Breeder: Forgotten Land Investment Inc & Black Diamond Equine Corp. (PA)
Kentucky Derby points: 54
Angel of Empire all but assured a spot in the Derby starting gate with his win in the G2 Risen Star. He was a big price that day, but outside of a turf try at Kentucky Downs last fall, he hasn't run a bad race to date. His lone other defeat was a second to Victory Formation in the Smarty Jones when that one got loose on the lead, and a win going 1 1/8 miles isn't something most of these horses have on their resumes yet. We'll learn more about him Saturday, when he'll run in the Arkansas Derby.
#8: Confidence Game
Pedigree: Candy Ride – Eblouissante (by Bernardini)
Owner: Don't Tell My Wife Stables
Trainer: Keith Desormeaux
Breeder: Summer Wind Equine LLC (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 57
Confidence Game rallied from fifth to win the Rebel at a price, and there are reasons to be enthusiastic. He won that race the right way and defeated what seemed like a pretty solid group. The big question: Was it early-season development that moved him forward, or was it the sloppy track he's bred up and down to absolutely love? Hopefully, we'll get an answer sooner rather than later.
Confidence Game was bred in Kentucky by Summer Wind Equine, out of the winning Bernardini mare Eblouissante. Desormeaux signed the ticket on Confidence Game for $25,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Sale. Eblouissante, a half-sister to Hall of Famer Zenyatta, was purchased by Summer Wind Farm for $1,434,279, pregnant to Dansili, at the 2016 Tattersalls December Mares Sale.
#9: Rocket Can
Pedigree: Into Mischief – Tension (by Tapit)
Owner: Frank Fletcher Racing
Trainer: Bill Mott
Breeder: Woodford Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 40
Much was made about the quality (or lack thereof) in the G3 Holy Bull, which Rocket Can won. However, he came back to run second behind Forte in the Fountain of Youth, and there's no shame in chasing last year's champion 2-year-old male home. Bill Mott knows how to develop a horse with experience and seasoning, so this one can't be counted out. We'll see if he takes another step forward Saturday at Oaklawn.
Rocket Can was bred in Kentucky by Woodford Thoroughbreds LLC, out of the placed Tapit mare Tension. Woodford Thoroughbreds bought Tension pregnant to Curlin for $750,000 at the 2017 Keeneland November sale, and sold her at this year's Keeneland January sale.
#10: Disarm
Pedigree: Gun Runner – Easy Tap (by Tapit)
Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Breeder: Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 40
Disarm is new to this list, and there was a lot to like about his run in the Louisiana Derby. He had significant traffic trouble and rated in a race with a pretty slow pace. However, he was the closer moving best of all late in just the fourth start of his young career. He's bred to go long, and the 10-furlong distance of the Run for the Roses shouldn't be a problem.
Disarm was bred in Kentucky by Winchell Thoroughbreds, out of the winning Tapit mare Easy Tap, who is also the dam of Venezuelan champion Tap Daddy. The Winchell operation purchased Easy Tap for $300,000 at the 2011 Fasig-Tipton July Yearling Sale.
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If you appreciate our work, you can support us by subscribing to our Patreon stream. Learn more.#11: Two Phil's
Pedigree: Hard Spun – Mia Torri (by General Quarters)
Owner: Patricia's Hope, Phillip Sagan
Trainer: Larry Rivelli
Breeder: Phillip Sagan (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 123
When Jareth Loveberry rode for Rivelli Saturday, he KNEW he was live (yes, we're still referencing the greatest commercial in horse racing history). Two Phil's dominated in the G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park and earned some pretty big speed figures (especially compared to the rest of his crop). If they were running the Kentucky Derby over that synthetic track, I'd have him much, much higher on this list. The question is, can he replicate that race on dirt? To run with the likes of Forte, he may have to do just that.
Two Phil's was bred in Kentucky by Phillip Sagan, out of the Grade 3-placed stakes-winning General Quarters mare Mia Torri, who Sagan acquired privately during her on-track career.
#12: Instant Coffee
Pedigree: Bolt d'Oro – Follow No One (by Uncle Mo)
Owner: Gold Square LLC
Trainer: Brad Cox
Breeder: Sagamore Farm (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 32
I can't drop Instant Coffee off this list quite yet. Yes, his run at Fair Grounds was incredibly disappointing. With that said, though, that may have just been a function of the race shape. Disarm, who ran very well, was the only closer who made up any ground late. Instant Coffee may need some help to make the Derby field, but if he does, there's every chance he moves forward going back to a Churchill Downs track he loves for a race that should have more speed signed on.
Instant Coffee was bred in Kentucky by Sagamore Farm, out of the stakes-placed Uncle Mo mare Follow No One. He hammered for $200,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Sagamore Farm purchased Follow No One for $100,000 at the 2016 OBS Spring 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale.
#13: Raise Cain
Pedigree: Violence – Lemon Belle (by Lemon Drop Kid)
Owner: Andrew and Rania Warren
Trainer: Ben Colebrook
Breeder: Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 50
I'd wager I have Raise Cain higher than many who author similar lists. It's true there are things to nitpick about his win in the G3 Gotham. However, I really liked that he overcame some adversity. He was stopped going around the far turn and had an excuse to spit the bit, but he resumed his rally and wound up romping by more than seven lengths. Raise Cain's record looks far better if you toss the clunker he ran over Turfway Park's synthetic surface, and I think there's plenty to intrigue those looking for bigger prices on the Derby trail.
Raise Cain was bred in Kentucky by Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds, out of the winning Lemon Drop Kid mare Lemon Belle. He sold for $180,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds acquired Lemon Belle, pregnant to Violence, for $285,000 at the 2018 Keeneland November sale.
#14: Derma Sotogake
Pedigree: Mind Your Biscuits – Amour Poesie (by Neo Universe)
Owner: Hiroyuki Asanuma
Trainer: Hidetaka Otonashi
Breeder: Shadai Farm (JPN)
Kentucky Derby points: 100
Here comes Japan, as horses from the land of the rising sun swept the top four positions in the G2 UAE Derby Saturday at Meydan. Derma Sotogake did it easily, too, leading every step of the way and having plenty left when called upon turning for home. That's all great, but the record of UAE Derby alumni in the Kentucky Derby is absolutely abysmal. At some point, a horse will buck that trend, and at some point a Japan-based horse will almost certainly win the Kentucky Derby, but is this the year?
#15: Red Route One
Pedigree: Gun Runner – Red House (by Tapit)
Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Breeder: Winchell Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 33
Red Route One picked up another significant check when he rallied to finish second behind Confidence Game in the Rebel. He's still eligible for a first-level allowance race, but he's run enough big races in big spots to be fourth on the Derby leaderboard as of this writing. He doesn't appear to be quite as talented as Epicenter, who ran second for these connections one year ago, and he may have been surpassed by Disarm, who also carried these colors. However, one more solid run in a Derby prep would get Red Route One in the gate.
Red Route One was bred in Kentucky by Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC, out of the unraced Tapit mare Red House, and he is a full-brother to stakes-winner Red Run. Red House is herself a Winchell homebred, out of 2014 Broodmare of the Year Fun House, making her a full-sister to champion Untapable and a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Paddy O'Prado.
#16: Mage
Pedigree: Good Magic – Puca (by Big Brown)
Owner: OGMA Investments, Restropo, Sterling Racing, and CMNWLTH
Trainer: Gustavo Delgado
Breeder: Grandview Equine (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 10
Unlike many of the big names in Saturday's Florida Derby, Mage lucked out at the post position draw. He'll break from post #4, and there are plenty of reasons to believe he's sitting on an improved effort. He had a very unlucky trip when fourth behind Forte in the Fountain of Youth, a race that was also his first start against winners and his first try going two turns. That's a lot to throw at a young horse, but one can argue he was second-best that day, and a step forward with an advantageous setup Saturday certainly seems possible.
Mage was bred in Kentucky by Grandview Equine, out of the Grade 1-placed stakes-winning Big Brown mare Puca. He brought $235,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale, then he sold for $290,000 at last year's Fasig-Tipton Midlantic 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale. Puca sold to Grandview Equine, pregnant to Gun Runner, for $475,000 at the 2018 Fasig-Tipton November Sale.
#17: Skinner
Pedigree: Curlin – Winding Way (by Malibu Moon)
Owner: C R K Stable
Trainer: John Shirreffs
Breeder: Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 15
Skinner made a big middle move in the San Felipe before flattening out a bit to be third. It's possible he was asked for too much too early, and he didn't save much ground while making his move. A luckier trip next time out may very well get him the points he needs to make the Derby field, and he's got a pedigree that indicates more distance won't be an issue.
Skinner was bred in Kentucky by Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings, out of the Grade 3-winning Malibu Moon mare Winding Way. He sold for $40,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Sale, then he was pinhooked for $510,000 at the 2022 OBS Spring Sale. Stonestreet bought Winding Way for $660,000 at the 2015 Keeneland November sale.
#18: Jace's Road
Pedigree: Quality Road – Out Post (by Silver Deputy)
Owner: West Point Thoroughbreds, Albaugh Family Stables
Trainer: Brad Cox
Breeder: Colts Neck Stables LLC (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 45
Jace's Road ran third in the Louisiana Derby, and in doing so pretty much clinched a spot in the Kentucky Derby field. He pressed the very slow pace set by Kingsbarns, and while he couldn't stick with the top two, he had enough in reserve to finish a clear third. There are speed figure questions surrounding that race, and he did have what seemed like a perfect trip, but this is a barn that simply cannot be ignored.
Jace's Road was bred in Kentucky by Richard Santulli's Colts Neck Stables, out of the stakes-placed Silver Deputy mare Out Post. The colt sold to his current ownership for $510,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. After being purchased as a yearling for $250,000, Out Post raced for Jayeff B Stables, of which Santulli is a partner, then she raced for Santulli alone before entering his broodmare band.
#19: Dubyuhnell
Pedigree: Good Magic – Wild Gams (by Forest Wildcat)
Owner: West Paces Racing, Stonestreet Stables
Trainer: Danny Gargan
Breeder: Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 10
The only horse to get shafted worse than Forte at the Florida Derby post position draw was Dubyuhnell. Last year's G2 Remsen winner will break from post #12 in a field of 12, on a track that is far from kind to horses out that far going 1 1/8 miles. Dubyuhnell almost certainly needs a top-three finish to make the Kentucky Derby field, and while I believe he has the ability to do that, he certainly has his work cut out for him on Saturday afternoon.
Dubyuhnell was bred in Kentucky by Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings, out of the multiple Grade 3-winning Forest Wildcat mare Wild Gams, whose runners also include Grade 2 winner Cazadero, stakes winner Mt. Brave, and Grade 3-placed Almost Famous. Dubyuhnell brought $400,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Sale, while Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings secured Wild Gams as a broodmare prospect for $1 million at the 2008 Keeneland November sale.
#20: Dura Erede
Pedigree: Duramente – Marchesa (by Orfevre)
Owner: Three H Racing
Trainer: Manabu Ikezoe
Kentucky Derby points: 40
The runner-up in the UAE Derby appeared to have every chance to run down Derma Sotogake when the field turned for home. However, that one found another gear and won as much the best. Dura Erede, though, earned enough Derby points to make the field. He won Japan's G1 Hopeful Stakes as a 2-year-old, and the UAE Derby was his first start of 2023.
The post The Derby Bubble Presented By Kentucky-Breds: Japan Has Entered The Chat appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.
