March, 2024 | Horse Racing Free Tips

Who Will Be This Year’s Leading Freshman Sire? We’ve Asked the Experts

It's that time again. The first major 2-year-old sale, the March OBS sale, is in the books and the buyers, sellers and bloodstock agents have had their chance to evaluate this year's freshman sires. So who do they like? We asked the experts listed below to give us their pick for leading freshman sire and an under-the-radar stallion they expect will have a big 2024.

Liz Crow: “I really liked the Improbables at the OBS March breeze show. It's very sad that he passed away. I thought he had, overall, the most impressive breeze show. That doesn't always indicate who's going to be the leading freshman sire, but I have found in the past that it's a good model that tells you the horse is going in the right direction and that they have some 2-year-old speed. Overall, I was very impressed with his horses. Volatile is my sleeper pick. He had, overall, a good breeze show as well. And he bred a lot of mares, something around 180. I landed on quite a few of them that had nice works and he was speedy himself and, being by Violence, comes from a good line of 2 year olds. With the number of mares he had and with the solid breeze show he had I rank him high on the list.”

Phil Hager: “In terms of the quality that I've seen so far it's a toss-up between Authentic and McKinzie. A lot of the Authentics I have seen look really nice. Some look like they could be early, but a lot of them look like horses that can go on and go two turns. The McKinzies look like they might develop a little later in the year, but they seem to have a lot of quality. Both were well supported and will go to a lot of good trainers. My sleeper is Caracaro. That horse could run. I used to work at Crestwood, so I knew the horse's story. He had quite a few that worked really well at the March sale. I don't know if that was a surprise, but they were consistent.”

Mike McMahon: “McKinzie is my pick. I've owned three or four already. Not only were they in demand at the sales but they were all good looking horses. I haven't had a bad one yet. The one we bought to go racing with, if all is right, he will be pretty exceptional. I feel like I have a good group of McKinzies and have a good feel for them. His 2 year olds breezed just as well as they were supposed to. My sleeper is Vekoma. It's a tough choice because I like several stallions that stand for $10,000 or less and are real bargains. Vekoma has the speed to be a sire, the sire line and the pedigree. I've loved the ones we have been around.”

Jon Green: “I was most impressed with the Improbables. His passing is unfortunate. He had a couple of horses who were on our short list for the 2-year-old sale and last year we saw 10 to 12 of his yearlings that we liked at the yearling sales. I think he will be an outstanding freshman sire. The sleeper is Tom's d'Etat. We bought two of his yearlings and I got outbid on one at the March sale. He won't be a juvenile stallion that throws precocious 2 year olds. Just like him, as they get older. I think you'll see them hitting the winner's circle in graded stakes.They will get better with age.”

Connor Foley: Based on what I saw at the OBS sale, my pick for leading freshman sire would be Tiz the Law. They breezed well enough as a group and I thought they all had a lot of race-horse characteristics to them. Horses can breeze fast, but you still have to ask yourself the question, are they going to go on to be good race horses? They had that look to me. For my sleeper pick, I was impressed by the horses by Thousand Words.”

Zoe Cadman: “Volatile is my pick for leading freshman sire. Like last year's freshman sire Mitole, Volatile was also brilliantly fast and trained by one of the masters of the game in Steve Asmussen. How he ever paid $20 to win on debut is just beyond me. He was brilliantly fast and being out of an Unbridled's Song mare I see no reason why his babies won't go two turns . They made a great showing at the recently concluded OBS 2-year-old sales showing not only class, which is so important, but also some stretch and athleticism. Marette Farrell, who I work closely with at the sales, scooped one up out of the Lothenbach dispersal who we absolutely love. My under-the-radar pick was going to be Vekoma. But his 2-year-olds are no longer a secret. The were incredibly well received at both the yearling sales and at OBS March. The Farrell team bid on and secured several. So, I'm going with Complexity who stands for $12,500 at Airdrie stud, as my sleeper. He has it all. He was a Grade I winner at two and also the Kelso winner at four. His 2 year olds looked great skipping over the OBS surface and I am looking forward to seeing them hit the racetrack soon.”

Mark Casse: “I have to go with War of Will, who I trained. I have something like 20 of his offspring and they're training very well. They're going to be very versatile. He was a versatile horse who could run on dirt or grass. My sleeper is Win Win Win. The horses by him have been very impressive on the track.”

David Ingordo: “I have to go with Game Winner. He was 2-year-old champion and he got a good book of mares. They look the part. We got a bunch of them that we bought to race that act precocious, but also high class, not cheap. He's my No. 1 pick. My sleeper is Honor A.P. I don't think they'll win going 4 ½ furlongs by any means, but you have the A.P. Indy line that is not Tapit. He was precocious enough, but I think he'll be a source of Classic type blood. I can see him getting a horse in the Breeders' Cup Classic or, earlier on, him getting a 2-year old in races like the American Pharoah and the Breeders' Futurity.”

Terry Finley: We have a couple of Game Winners we like and I know people liked him in Ocala. The McKinzies look like they have a lot of quality to them. I was very impressed with him at the yearling sales and at Ocala, where they sold well. He's got a good shot to come up with a big one and a horse who is going to slant those stats. I like them both but I'll go with Game Winner as my top pick and McKinzie as my sleeper.

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UK Hires Dr. Cynthia Cole As Acting Lab Director

Dr. Cynthia Cole has been named the acting laboratory director of the UK Equine Analytical Chemistry Laboratory (EACL), effective March 15, 2024, according to a press release from the University of Kentucky Martin-Gatton College of Agriculture, Food and Environment.

Cole brings over 30 years of experience to the role, with a diverse background spanning academia, industry and research, according to the UK release. Previously, Cole served as an associate clinical professor and director of The Racing Laboratory at the University of Florida from 2002-2006 and again from 2018-2023 when the laboratory closed.

Just last week, the Racing Medication and Testing Consortium (RMTC) suspended its accreditation of the University of Kentucky's Equine Analytical Chemistry Laboratory, according to the RMTC's executive director, Michael Hardy.

That followed news the prior week that the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority (HISA) and Horseracing Integrity and Welfare Unit (HIWU) had opened an investigation into the UK Laboratory's performance, and that the agencies were cooperating with the university's own investigation into the matter.

The university is also conducting an ongoing personnel investigation relating to former lab director Scott Stanley and that “Dr. Stanley was not permitted to be in direct communication with the other staff at the laboratory,” HISA and HIWU wrote in a joint statement two weeks ago.

HIWU stopped sending samples to the UK Lab on Feb. 16. Prior to that, the laboratory had been one of six drug testing facilities used under HISA's Anti-Doping and Medication Control (ADMC) program. According to the RMTC's Hardy, his organization alerted the University of Kentucky to the RMTC's laboratory accreditation suspension on Mar. 11.

Cole was one of the founding faculty members of the KL Maddy Equine Analytical Chemistry Laboratory at the University of California, Davis (1995-2002). She holds a D.V.M., Ph.D. and completed a postdoctoral fellowship at the University of Florida and is recognized as a Diplomate in the American College of Veterinary Clinical Pharmacology. Cole has also made significant contributions in her industry roles at Mars Petcare, Novartis Animal Health, IDEXX and Piedmont Pharmaceuticals.

In her role as acting director, Cole will oversee all operations of the laboratory, including reviewing procedures from sample receiving to results and ensuring compliance with all applicable accreditation criteria.

“With the resources, energy and support that UK, the racing industry, elected policymakers and other stakeholders have invested in the Equine Analytical Chemistry Laboratory, it is poised to be an industry leader in forensic drug testing,” said Dr. Cole. “Moving forward, and working with the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority, the Horseracing Integrity and Welfare Unit and regulators of sport horse competitions, I am confident that we can achieve that vision.”

Leveraging her background in veterinary medicine and pharmacology, Cole will also provide guidance on chemistry and sample analysis to ensure the accuracy and reliability of testing procedures. Additionally, she will supervise daily laboratory activities, offering leadership and support to staff members to maintain the highest standards of performance.

“We warmly welcome Dr. Cole to the college,” said Nancy Cox, vice president of land-grant engagement and dean of Martin-Gatton CAFE. “Her extensive experience and proven leadership will be instrumental in advancing the EACL's history of providing drug testing that meets the highest industry standards. She will also be instrumental in upholding the integrity of the equine industry, advancing the health and welfare of the horse.”

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At Home With John Stewart and the Team at Resolute Farm

Statements don't come much bigger than that made by John Stewart in the second half of 2023 when he spent over $25 million at public auction in less than 10 weeks, suddenly announcing himself as an emerging force in racing and bloodstock.

Stewart's most costly recruits included the second-top lot at the Keeneland September Yearling Sale, an Uncle Mo half-sister to the multiple Grade I winner Shedaresthedevil (Daredevil) who sold for $2.5 million. He then rolled into the Fasig-Tipton Kentucky November Sale where a pair of Breeders' Cup winners headlined his seven purchases, splashing out $6 million on the dual Filly & Mare Sprint heroine Goodnight Olive (Ghostzapper) and $3 million on the Juvenile Fillies Turf winner Pizza Bianca (Fastnet Rock {Aus}).

More recently, Stewart purchased five two-year-olds at the OBS March Sale, notably spending $1 million on an Authentic colt, while the three-year-old Pounce (Lookin At Lucky) was bought for $370,000 at the Fasig-Tipton February Digital Sale and made the perfect start for her new owner when winning the GIII Herecomesthebride S. at Gulfstream Park earlier this month. He also privately purchased the filly Sweet Rebecca after she broke her maiden at the same track eight days later and was named a 'TDN Rising Star'.

Certainly, nobody can accuse Stewart of not putting his money where his mouth is. It was only around 18 months ago that he teamed up with Gavin O'Connor to buy his first horse, Shiloh's Mistress (Vino Rosso), for $235,000 at the 2022 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. Now, he has designs on becoming one of the most influential owner-breeders in the sport.

A lifelong racing fan, Stewart might have bided his time before getting his hands dirty at the coal face, but there's seemingly no limit to his ambition now that he's there.

Speaking about the decision to significantly increase his stake in the industry, Stewart explains, “I met Chelsey [Stone], my girlfriend, in the spring of last year, early summer. Gavin and I were planning on buying a couple more horses, and Chelsey has been around horses her whole life. She rides Saddlebreds and she worked at Gainesway, so she knows horses a lot.

“We got talking more and more about what the opportunities were and I told them, 'Something you should know about me is that I don't ever do anything halfway–I'm probably not going to be that person who has just two or three horses.'

“We went to the Keeneland Sale and Chelsey and Gavin had looked at 160 horses to try to recommend two. I was so impressed by that because it would have been very easy just to pick two horses. And so, as we started going through the sale, we had an eye on a couple and then some others came up and I thought the prices were kind of reasonable.

“Somehow, we ended up spending $8.5 million. I go to car auctions all the time and I do the same thing. I'd just been to a car auction and bought nine cars a month earlier–people that know me know that's totally not out of character.”

Altogether, Stewart came away from the Keeneland September Yearling Sale with 13 horses, including a second seven-figure purchase when he forked out $1 million for the full-brother to the multiple top-level winner Practical Joke (Into Mischief). That group is set to spearhead Stewart's racing operation, called Resolute Racing, in 2024.

In the meantime, Stewart's priority was finding a place his burgeoning broodmare band could call home. That next step in the process was ticked off late last year when he completed the purchase of Shadwell's Shadayid Stud in Midway, since renamed Resolute Farm.

“I used to live back behind Shadwell in Fishers Mill in Midway,” says Stewart, the founder and managing partner of MiddleGround Capital, a private equity firm. “I lived there for around 10 years, and I've always admired this property and thought it was beautiful. There hadn't been horses on this property since [Sheikh Hamdan] had passed away, but they took such good care of it that it was really just turnkey. We could just come in and start, so we put an offer in, they accepted it, and we bought the farm.”

Said farm now has a handful of Grade I-winning mares—not to mention dams of Grade I winners or siblings to Grade I winners–grazing its lush paddocks following Stewart's spending spree last autumn.

As well as Goodnight Olive and Pizza Bianca, Stewart paid a total of $5.9 million for the dams of GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile and GI Florida Derby winner Forte (Violence) and GI Kentucky Derby winner Mage (Good Magic). The Listed-winning Queen Caroline (Blame), the dam of Forte, was bought for $3 million at the Fasig-Tipton November Sale, before the GII-placed Puca (Big Brown) was secured for $2.9 million post-RNA at the Keeneland November Sale having originally been reported as unsold.

Another mare who went unsold when offered for $2.4 million at Keeneland was the GI Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint heroine Caravel (Mizzen Mast), but she too ended up with Stewart following a private sale conducted early in 2024.

Telling the story of how he came to buy Caravel, Stewart says, “Chelsey was very interested in Caravel from the beginning, as I was, and I had talked to Sheikh Fahad [Al Thani, chairman of Qatar Racing] at the Breeders' Cup about her. We went to Keeneland after the sale and ended up buying Puca. We found out that Caravel had RNA'd and we were so shocked, so we reached out to them directly and said, 'Hey, we'll buy the horse.'

“There's a lot of people in the industry that don't want to sell privately because they think it's going to take away from the value of the horse. But coming after the Fasig-Tipton sale where I had bought some of the most expensive horses there and paid really premium prices, I said, 'Guys, nobody's ever going to know what I pay for the horse and they're all going to assume I paid a ridiculous price, because look at what I just paid for all these other horses.' So, they agreed to sell her to us.”

As for the next steps for Caravel and Puca–who is the dam of another colt on the Triple Crown trail this year in the GII Fountain of Youth S. winner Dornoch (Good Magic)–Stewart adds, “We knew all along that we wanted to breed Caravel to Frankel and I've used that with the team to convince them to let me send Puca to Frankel. We're going to send Puca to Into Mischief this year and then she's going to join Caravel over there and she's going to be bred to Frankel next year.”

The prospect of having a homebred colt or filly by Frankel (GB) on the ground is a tantalising one for Stewart, though it won't be the first offspring of the unbeaten world champion to have graced the turf at Resolute Farm. Instead, that honour belongs to the colt out of the G1 Oaks runner-up Pink Dogwood (Ire) (Camelot {GB}) who receives rave reports from farm manager Noel Murphy. “I love the Frankel foal,” he says. “He's big and strong and looks like a Frankel should.”

Pink Dogwood, a full-sister to the G1 Irish Derby winner Latrobe (Ire), was carrying said foal when she became one of four Coolmore mares acquired by Stewart during last year's Thanksgiving trip to Tipperary at the invitation of MV Magnier. That quartet also includes the impeccably-bred Champagne (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}), a full-sister to the GI Breeders' Cup Turf and G1 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe winner Found (Ire); Dramatically (War Front), who is out of the G1 Oaks runner-up Wonder Of Wonders (Kingmambo); and G3 Athasi S. winner Happen (War Front), a daughter of the dual Classic heroine Alexandrova (Ire) (Sadler's Wells).

“Pink Dogwood and Champagne are just different,” Murphy says of two of the new recruits. “When you have them in your hand and when you're around them, they're just different. Those two, in particular, there's something very unique about them. There's a presence that you don't find all the time–it's rare.”

Stewart, too, freely admits that it was the uniqueness of the opportunity offered to him by the Coolmore team that made it so difficult to turn down. “When you start to look at the pedigrees of the horses, the depth is just something that you don't see,” he sums up. “I'm trying to get the families that are really deep and I think one of the things you see in Europe that you don't see in America is more concentration of families.

“We were able to buy these [mares] all in foal and so we had three colts and one filly expected out of these horses. To have a Frankel on the ground now, which is a huge, 140-pound foal, is super exciting. You just don't see that on every farm here. And we have a Siyouni filly [out of Champagne], you don't see that a lot. They were a couple of stallions I was really interested in and Coolmore gave us a big step in that direction, kind of creating the foundation for what's going to be the future of the farm.”

Closer to hand, Stewart can look forward to one of the biggest days in his relatively brief time as a racehorse owner when unbeaten two-year-old Storm Boy (Aus) (Justify) runs in Saturday's G1 Golden Slipper, the world's richest race for juveniles. Favourite Storm Boy was purchased by Coolmore and a group of their clients and friends, including Stewart, for an undisclosed sum after winning the Listed Magic Millions 2YO Classic in January.

Stewart has travelled to Australia to enjoy the occasion, hoping to make another big statement on another continent–and with Europe unlikely to be far behind.

“I'm international with my business,” he explains. “I just opened an office in Amsterdam and I spend a lot of time over there. It's actually pretty efficient for me to go to Europe and I'm there probably three or four times a quarter. Again, I respect the bloodlines over there and I respect a lot of the farms that are over there. I would envisage, in the future, the next place we'll be racing horses will be over in Europe. There's not an immediate plan for that, but I would expect that in the future.”

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Paddington to Shuttle to New Zealand’s Windsor Park Stud

Paddington (GB) (Siyouni {Fr}) will shuttle to New Zealand to stand at Windsor Park Stud, which was also the former southern hemisphere home of his broodmare sire Montjeu (Ire).

Currently covering his first book of mares at Coolmore Stud in Ireland, the four-time Group 1 winner will become the first son of the Aga Khan Studs' Siyouni to join the stallion ranks in New Zealand. Siyouni's champion son St Mark's Basilica (Fr) shuttles to Coolmore's base in the Hunter Valley. Though Siyouni has remained in France throughout his stud career, he has been represented by four stakes winners in Australia, most notably Amelia's Jewel (Aus), whose seven Group wins include the G1 Northerly S.

Windsor Park Stud has had a long-running association with Coolmore and also previously stood High Chaparral (Ire), who enjoyed significant success in Australasia. Its current roster of seven stallions includes the treble Group 1-winning miler Circus Maximus (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}), whose first European crop will hit the track this season.

Windsor Park Stud's co-owner Rodney Schick said of Paddington's planned arrival at the farm later this year, “We had a launch day for him here today and are confident that he is going to attract a good book of mares as he has done in the northern hemisphere.

“He is a history-making horse, exceptional from the beginning, being a top-drawer yearling and he was a champion miler by an exceptional stallion.”

He added, “I was also lucky enough to see both Siyouni and his sire Pivotal race and I think Paddington has thrown very nicely to the sireline.”

Coolmore's Tom Magnier said that he was looking forward to continuing the “great relationship” his operation has with Windsor Park Stud.

He added of Paddington, “We believe that he is the most exciting horse to go to stud in New Zealand in a very long time.”

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