Month: March 2024

Imagination Wins San Felipe Thriller, Leads Baffert Exacta

The GII San Felipe S. last its headliner with the scratch of the Bob Baffert-trained Nysos (Nyquist), but Baffert still dominated the race with stablemates Imagination (Into Mischief) and Wine Me Up (Vino Rosso) running in tandem for much of the 1 1/16 miles and in lockstep down the stretch before Imagination just got his nose in front on the wire Sunday at Santa Anita.

Of his one-two finish in the San Felipe, Baffert said, “We're trying to develop these horses, so it was good for both of them. Wine Me Up ran tough. It's like watching the 49ers Super Bowl game. Unfortunately, someone has to lose, but I'm proud of them both. They both showed up. That's all you can ask for.”

Wine Me Up was fastest out of the gate and had the lead in the early strides, but Imagination, the 4-5 favorite, strode up to challenge for the lead into the first turn.

Scatify (Justify), who broke from the rail in the four-horse field found himself in tight quarters off Wine Me Up's heels with Mc Vay (Constitution) pressing him from the outside. Rattled in the right quarters, he came out into the first turn, knocking Imagination and forcing Mc Vay wide into the bend. Hector Berrios took a strong hold of Scatify down the backstretch and that colt took back to the rear of the field.

Imagination, meanwhile, had recovered his momentum and took a length advantage over his stablemate as the half went up in :47.04. Wine Me Up moved back on even turns with the favorite and the two turned for home together. Imagination looked to be getting the better of his rival in upper stretch, but Wine Me Up along the rail battled back on even terms and it was a ding-dong battle to the finish.

“He broke out and we went to the clubhouse turn the guy behind me struck into me,” said winning jockey Frankie Dettori. “My horse got frightened, and I took him back to get him wide to get him to relax and get him back into the race. He fought a great duel. He was full of heart.”

Tom Ryan of SF Racing, co-owner of the winner, admitted he wasn't sure who had won the photo finish, but he found plenty to be positive about Imagination's effort.

“That was a great race,” Ryan said. “I didn't know which way it went at the wire. It was a little bit of a messy race early on, he had to recollect himself. He kind of got scared, these are young 3-year-old colts, they are learning their craft. It is amazing you could have a 12-horse field and nothing, and in a four-horse field anything can happen.

“It's good to see him have the confidence to put it back together and not back down from a fight and get there at the wire. I think there is a lot of potential in this horse. He is just learning as he goes, and I think the farther the better. He is a classy colt, he's always shown it, he looks it and thankfully his ability matches his looks.”

A $1.05-million Keeneland September yearling, Imagination opened his career with a pair of runner-up efforts at Del Mar late last year. He graduated going one mile at Santa Anita on New Year's Day and missed by just a neck to stablemate and 'TDN Rising Star' Maymun (Frosted) in a one-mile allowance Feb. 11.

 

Pedigree Notes:

Spendthrift's all-conquering Into Mischief was represented by the second and third-place finishers in Saturday's GII Davona Dale S. at Gulfstream Park and his son Timberlake put himself firmly on the Kentucky Derby trail this year with a win in the GII Rebel S. last weekend.

Magical Feeling, the fourth generation of this family bred by Peter Blum, is the dam of last year's GIII Monmouth Oaks winner and GI Acorn S. third Occult (Into Mischief). She has a yearling colt by Gun Runner, but aborted a Flightline foal for this year.

The cross of Into Mischief over Empire Maker mares has resulted in 29 winners from 43 starters and now has seven stakes winners, including Saturday's G3 Burj Nahaar winner Laurel River. As noted by Alan Carasso in Sunday's TDN, the cross has also been represented by GI Kentucky Derby hero Mandaloun, the Grade II winners Occult, Center Aisle and Taraz.

 

Sunday, Santa Anita
DK HORSE SAN FELIPE S.-GII, $294,000, Santa Anita, 3-3, 3yo, 1 1/16m, 1:44.55, ft.
1–IMAGINATION, 120, c, 3, by Into Mischief
           1st Dam: Magical Feeling (GSW & GISP, $554,532), by Empire Maker
           2nd Dam: Magical Mood (GB), by Forestry
           3rd Dam: Good Mood, by Devil's Bag
1ST BLACK TYPE WIN, 1ST GRADED STAKES WIN. ($1,050,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP). O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Stonestreet Stables LLC, Dianne Bashor, Robert E. Masterson, Waves Edge Capital LLC, Catherine Donovan and Tom J. Ryan; B-Peter E. Blum Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY); T-Bob Baffert; J-Lanfranco Dettori. $180,000. Lifetime Record: 5-2-3-0, $256,800. *1/2 to Magical (Tapit), SW, $164,550 and Exulting (Tapit), MSW, $687,370; Full to Occult, GSW & MGISP, $451,450. Werk Nick Rating: A+++. *Triple Plus* Click for the eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree. Click for the free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree.
2–Wine Me Up, 120, c, 3, Vino Rosso–Deanaallen'skitten, by Kitten's Joy. ($115,000 Wlg '21 KEENOV; $300,000 2yo '23 OBSOPN). O-Michael E. Pegram, Karl Watson and Paul Weitman; B-Kenneth L. & Sarah K. Ramsey (KY); T-Bob Baffert. $60,000.
3–Mc Vay, 120, c, 3, Constitution–Dothraki Sea, by Union Rags. 1ST BLACK TYPE, 1ST GRADED BLACK TYPE. ($1,250,000 Ylg '22 FTSAUG). O-C R K Stable LLC; B-Band of Brothers (KY); T-John A. Shirreffs. $36,000.
Margins: HD, 6 3/4, 31. Odds: 0.90, 1.70, 9.90.
Also Ran: Scatify. Scratched: Nysos.
Click for the Equibase.com chart and the TJCIS.com PPs. VIDEO, sponsored by FanDuel TV.

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The Week in Review: In Wake of Triple Crown Purse Increases Sophomore Horsepower Missing in Action

Within the past three months, the purses for all three Triple Crown races have been raised. Paradoxically, this increase in prize money has coincided with a 2024 prep race season that is uncharacteristically light on emphatic, leap-off-the-page contenders for the GI Kentucky Derby, GI Preakness S., and GI Belmont S.

The first weekend in March has traditionally served as a launch pad for sophomores who figure to excel in the spring Classics and beyond. Of all the prep stakes currently carded at 1 1/16 miles, the two that have historically been the most prolific producers of Derby winners have been the GII Coolmore Fountain of Youth S. at Gulfstream Park (with 14 starters going on to win the Run for the Roses) and the GII San Felipe S. at Santa Anita Park (with 13).

This year, neither race figures to be a reliable measuring stick for calibrating the division's true horsepower.

The 1-5 favorite Dornoch (Good Magic) wired four overmatched foes in Saturday's Fountain of Youth S. But it will be difficult to discern where the full-brother to 2023 Derby winner Mage stands in the pecking order off that effort considering four other rivals scratched out of the race, including the three ranked closest to Dornoch on the morning line.

Out in California, the San Felipe S. lured just five entrants. Three were from Bob Baffert's barn–meaning they are ineligible to compete in the Derby because of Churchill Downs's corporate banishment of the Hall-of-Fame trainer. Then the day before the race, Baffert scratched the undefeated Nysos (Nyquist). The colt's defection not only drained the San Felipe of its star, but it meant that only two starters out of that stakes would be able to earn Derby qualifying points (the San Felipe's 6:02 p.m. Eastern post time Sunday was too late to include analysis for this column).

Using the most recent version of TDN's Sophomore Top 12 as a guide, it is difficult to zero in on any must-use betting interests for the 150th Derby based on what we have seen so far in the '24 prep season.

You can skim the Nos. 1, 2 and 7 contenders straight off that list for Derby consideration. 'Rising Stars' Nysos, Muth (Good Magic), and Maymun (Frosted) are all Baffert trainees who won't be Louisville-bound because of the Churchill ban.

Seeing these top California-based colts perform in other stakes has also become elusive. Over the last two weekends, Baffert has scratched Nysos from the San Felipe S. because of a sudden desire to give that 1-5 morning-line favorite more time off between starts, and he opted not to enter Muth in the Feb. 24 GII Rebel S. (where he would have been the heavy favorite), when he didn't like how the colt's final workout for that race turned out. Both colts are reportedly fine physically; they are now tentatively expected to contest the GI Santa Anita Derby and GI Arkansas Derby, respectively.

The Nos. 3, 5, 6 and 9 contenders on the Sophomore Top 12 all share the dubious distinction of failing to advance in terms of Beyer Speed Figures from age two to three–even though three of those four won their first sophomore starts.

No. 3-rated 'TDN Rising Star' Sierra Leone (Gun Runner)'s Beyer pattern declined from 91 to 90 when that colt won the Feb. 17 GII Risen Star S. at Fair Grounds.

No. 5-ranked juvenile champ Fierceness, a 'TDN Rising Star' by City of Light, saw his Beyer dip from 105 to 84 after winning the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile in November, then running a no-impact third at 1-5 odds in the GIII Holy Bull S. in February.

No. 6-slotted Dornoch (Good Magic)'s winning 88 Beyer in the Fountain of Youth S. represented a three-point haircut off a 91 earned in his GII Remsen S. score.

The No. 9-ranked 'TDN Rising Star' Timberlake (Into Mischief) captured the Rebel S., inheriting 4-5 favoritism when Muth wasn't entered. But his 93 Beyer from that win equates to a three-race plateau at that figure without any numerical advancement over a five-month span.

Conquest Warrior, another 'TDN Rising Star,' was pegged at No. 8 in the most recent Sophomore Top 12. He uncorked a five-length smackdown score at 1-5 odds in a Gulfstream nine-furlong allowance on Friday against five rivals. But this son of City of Light remains untested against stakes company and will attempt to garner his first Derby qualifying points after replicating, not bettering, an 84 Beyer from his Jan. 13 maiden win.

The two Todd Pletcher-trained horses holding down the Nos. 10 and 12 spots on TDN's Top 12, Locked (Gun Runner) and Speak Easy (Constitution), were both unexpected defections from the Fountain of Youth S.

Pletcher scratched 'TDN Rising Star' Locked Saturday after not liking the way the colt had moved in a morning gallop. Locked, who won the GI Breeders' Futurity S. at Keeneland and ran third as the beaten favorite in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, has now missed consecutive starts after a fever kept him out of the GIII Sam F. Davis S. at Tampa Feb. 6. He remains unraced in 2024.

Speak Easy, a 100-Beyer winner in his Jan. 27 debut, was challenging Dornoch for favoritism in the Fountain of Youth S. when he unseated his jockey in pre-race warm-ups and reportedly ran into the rail and sustained a superficial cut, necessitating a scratch.

The plethora of recent, high-profile no-shows against the backdrop of Derby contenders being lightly raced to begin with underscores the missing-in-action vibe that is attaching itself to this year's sophomore crop.

With that in mind, maybe it's time to start looking for horses of interest in prep stakes that don't traditionally yield Derby contenders. Saturday's GIII Gotham S. at Aqueduct and the ungraded John Battaglia Memorial S. at Turfway both produced winners who, at the very least, seem to have forward momentum going for them.

Deterministic (Liam's Map) is now 2-for-2 after splashing home first in the Gotham S. He stalked and pounced from mid-pack, splitting rivals in the stretch to register a 93-Beyer victory coming off a nearly seven-month layoff for trainer Christophe Clement. The colt will ship back to Payson Park, where he's been training this winter, while his connections mull a next start.

Encino (Nyquist) improved his record to 2-for-3 in Tapeta routes at Turfway, with his only loss being a neck defeat when second in his debut for trainer Brad Cox. He overcame post 11 in the Battaglia S. despite getting hooked four wide on both turns and running up on the heels of the favorite at the three-sixteenths pole. After shifting outward and regaining his stalled momentum, Encino scored by a measured length, earning an 89 Beyer. Next-race plans have yet to be formulated.

Despite a history that dates to 1953, only one Gotham S. starter has ever won the Derby–the mighty Secretariat, who won both those stakes in 1973.

The Battaglia S., which dates to 1982 but has only been a points-awarding Derby prep since 2021, has also yielded exactly one Derby winner from its roster of starters–the 80-1 shocker Rich Strike in 2022, who ran fourth in that year's Battaglia.

You can't get much farther apart on the spectrum of Derby winners than Secretariat and Rich Strike.

But then again, this is a Triple Crown prep campaign that is shaping up to be a ripe, open season for Derby dreamers, so don't dismiss the winners of the Gotham and Battaglia based solely on their unconventional prep-race paths.

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Arkansas Derby Possible Next Start for Time for Truth

Time for Truth (Omaha Beach) likely earned himself a spot in the Mar. 30 GI Arkansas Derby with his allowance victory at Oaklawn Park Saturday. Owned by Harry Rosenblum and Cheyenne Stables and trained by Ron Moquett, the colt had to be scratched from last week's GII Rebel S. after suffering a minor shin injury the night before the race.

Making his two-turn debut in Saturday's 1 1/16-mile allowance, Time for Truth showed a new dimension by coming from off the pace to post a 1 1/2-length victory under regular rider Rafael Bejarano.

“I was [pleased], knowing where we're at with the horse, knowing he missed some training,” Moquett said. “We didn't come to the race exactly like we had wanted to, considering we really did have a bump on our shin. So, I'm pleased with the horse.”

A debut winner at Oaklawn at the end of December, Time for Truth was second in the six-furlong Ozark S. Feb. 10.

Moquett said he used the Ozark as a bridge to the Rebel after Oaklawn lost 11 days of training (Jan. 13-23) to winter weather.

Time for Truth was 15-1 on the morning line for the Rebel. He was 5-2 Saturday.

“It was a good race for him,” said Bejarano, who rode three consecutive winners to close Saturday's card. “I'm glad he got scratched the last time because it was a tough race. But I think this race will prepare him for the big race next time. It's the first time going two turns. I had a beautiful trip. Hopefully, the horse came back good and we can get ready for next time.”

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Gargan Pleased with Dornoch Following Fountain of Youth Win

Dornoch (Good Magic) pleased Danny Gargan with his victory in Saturday's GII Coolmore Fountain of Youth S. and the trainer said a decision on the colt's next start would likely be made by the end of the week.

“He's great. He looked good this morning. He cooled out nice. We're happy with him. He ate up well,” Gargan said. “We're pleased with him.”

Following Dornoch's professional performance as the 1-5 favorite in the 1 1/16-mile Fountain of Youth, Gargan said the 3-year-old full-brother to 2023 GI Kentucky Derby winner Mage would likely return in either the Mar. 30 GI Curlin Florida Derby at Gulfstream or the Apr. 6 GI Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland.

Gargan said a spate of scratches from the Fountain of Youth caused him to call an audible Saturday.

“We wanted to sit behind horses. The scratches hurt. We just decided to go ahead and take control of the race. He did it pretty handily,” Gargan said. “He didn't have to run too hard, so we'll have plenty of horse. We should be able to come back quick and be fine. We're just got to keep moving and stay lucky.”

Vicente Stella Stables LLC's Le Dom Bro (Mucho Macho Man), who made an inside challenge at the top of the stretch before settling for second at 27-1, also exited the Fountain of Youth in good order and is likely to make his next start in the Florida Derby.

“I'd say it's 90% for the Florida Derby,” said Vicente Stella.

Also on track for the Florida Derby is Hades (Awesome Slew). The undefeated winner of the GIII Holy Bull S. worked four furlongs Sunday morning at Gulfstream in :48.64 (15/52).

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