TDN's Senior Racing Editor Steve Sherack provides his analysis for Saturday's quartet of GI Kentucky Derby prep races.
GIII Holy Bull S. – Last year's jaw-dropping GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner and 'TDN Rising Star' Fierceness (City of Light) finds a perfect landing spot to launch his sophomore season versus seven overmatched rivals. Not worth trying to beat him here, even if he's closer to 1-9 than his 3-5 morning-line quote.
I can't see him defeating the recently crowned 2023 champion 2-year-old, but how about Domestic Product (Practical Joke) to complete a cold exacta at a price? His maiden win two starts back in his two-turn debut at Aqueduct last fall was impressive enough to give him a pass for his no-show seventh in the GII Remsen S. in the mud last out. Training well for Chad Brown and the blinkers come off for this. Selection: #7 Fierceness (3-5).
GIII Southwest S. – Just couldn't resist taking a swing on a longshot closer in a wide-open race that seems destined for a pace meltdown. The lightly raced Common Defense (Karakontie {Jpn}) ran very well to finish second behind his Ken McPeek-trained stablemate and subsequent GIII Lecomte S. longshot third Lat Long (Liam's Map) in his Oaklawn Park course-and-distance debut Dec. 17. He ran to the money and kicked home beautifully in Oaklawn's short stretch to graduate next out going a mile Jan. 13 and was a supplemental entry here. Common Defense is bred to run all day (his third dam is GISW Aldiza) and he should offer plenty of value in by far the best wagering event of the four prep races on tap Saturday.
Last out stretch-running GIII Street Sense S. winner Liberal Arts (Arrogate) also makes plenty of sense here; and will also be using wise-guy horse Awesome Road (Quality Road) despite the very tough draw. Selection: #8 Common Defense (15-1).
GIII Robert B. Lewis S. – 'TDN Rising Star' Nysos (Nyquist) looked like a complete monster in his first two starts sprinting for Bob Baffert last term, including a runaway stalk-and-pounce win in the seven-furlong GIII Bob Hope S. last out Nov. 19. No reason to think anything can get near him here either in his first try off the bench in this first test around two turns. Good luck seeing anything near that 4-5 morning-line quote! Selection: #6 Nysos (4-5).
GIII Withers S. – Speed Runner (Gun Runner), a useful third going seven furlongs on debut, took a major step forward with a game maiden victory at the Big A over this same course and distance for Todd Pletcher while making his route debut last time Dec. 8. The half-brother to GI Blue Grass S. winner and GI Belmont S. third Brilliant Speed (Dynaformer) should work out an ideal trip beneath Jose Lezcano from his rail draw.
Deserving favorite Lightline (City of Light), a rallying second from far back behind unbeaten Southwest contender Carbone (Mitole) going a mile at Oaklawn, should appreciate the additional real estate for Brad Cox.
Uncle Heavy (Social Inclusion) is an interesting longshot to consider for underneath shipping in off a better-than-it-looks win in the Wait For It S. versus state-breds at Parx. Selection: #1 Speed Runner (5-1).
The post Handicapping the Kentucky Derby Preps: Holy Bull, Robert B. Lewis, Southwest & Withers appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.
