The Week In Review: It’s Not Just The Derby; Now Baffert Has Top Oaks Candidate As Well

Saturday's GIII Las Virgenes S. at Santa Anita was a big test for the Bob Baffert-trained filly and 'TDN Rising Star' Kinza (Carpe Diem). She was coming off a scintillating maiden win in which she got a 96 Beyer, but was facing a much stronger challenge in the one-mile stakes. Not only did she have to prove she could go two turns, but she was facing another potential star in the undefeated Kopion (Omaha Beach), the winner of the GIII Santa Ynez S.

On paper, this was a match race. But Kinza turned it into a one-horse show. She only won by two lengths, but at no point did it look like Kopion could pass the front-running Baffert filly. Kinza got a 93 Beyer to cement her status as the fastest 3-year-old filly in training.

Under normal circumstances, this performance would have stamped Kinza as the clear early favorite for the GI Kentucky Oaks. But there is nothing normal about this year's Oaks or, for that matter, the GI Kentucky Derby.

Kinza, a New York-bred, won't be allowed to run in the Oaks because Baffert was banned by Churchill Downs shortly after Medina Spirit (Protonico) tested positive for betamethasone after crossing the wire first in the 2021 Derby. The same goes for his colts. A week earlier, the Baffert-trained Nysos (Nyquist) looked like Triple Crown-winning material when crushing his opposition in the GIII Robert B. Lewis S. Baffert also has 'TDN Rising Star' Muth (Good Magic), the winner of the GII San Vicente S. and runner-up in last year's GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Nysos and Muth are one-two in the NTRA's 3-Year-Old poll. He also has 'TDN Rising Star' Maymum (Frosted), an impressive maiden winner who was entered in Sunday's sixth race at Santa Anita.

In past years, most of Baffert's owners turned their horses over to other trainers, most notably Tim Yakteen, which made them eligible to run at Churchill. But this year, in a surprising display of loyalty, not one Baffert owner took a horse away from him. They put their loyalty to Baffert over their dreams of winning the Kentucky Derby.

This wasn't supposed to happen. Baffert's Churchill ban was originally for two years, which meant he was supposed to be free and clear to run horses there this year. But on July 3, 2023, out of the middle of nowhere, the company announced that it was extending Baffert's ban at least through the end of 2024. It was a shocking development and it was unfair. Baffert's original penalties, which also included a 90-day suspension from the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission and a one-year ban from NYRA, were extremely harsh as it was considering the worst thing Baffert had done was to have positives that stemmed from overages of medications that in no way could be considered performance-enhancing. Since being handed the various suspensions and bans, Baffert has done nothing wrong. He has not had any more positives. He even went so far as to announce on Jan. 22 that he and Medina Spirit's owner Amr Zedan had dropped all legal actions regarding the Derby disqualification. It was an obvious peace offering, but one that was quickly and decisively dismissed by Churchill, which announced that the dropping of the lawsuits changed nothing. Baffert was still banned for, at the very least, all of 2024.

This time, Churchill had gone too far. There's no doubt that their battle with Baffert had turned personal and when that happens, fairness and reason get tossed out the window. Punishing the trainer remained the priority.

But now the script has flipped. That no Baffert horses, no Kinza, no Nysos, no Muth, no Maymum, will appear in Derby week stakes at Churchill will hurt Churchill a lot more than it will hurt Baffert. These will be races that will require asterisks because they did not include some of the best 3-year-old talent in the country.

One theory was that the ban was extended because Churchill didn't want Baffert's return to overshadow the festivities being planned to celebrate the 150th running of the race. It looks like Churchill never imagined that the Baffert owners would effectively boycott the Derby. But that's exactly what has happened. And one of the results of that is the very situation Churchill had hoped to avoid is now going to happen. The major storyline all week will not be the 150th renewal of the race or whoever emerges as the main contenders. It will be all about the missing stars from the Baffert barn, the impact that will have on the race and how it has weakened this Kentucky Derby and this Kentucky Oaks.

There's nothing anyone can do about it now. It's too late for Churchill to reconsider, not that they ever had any intention of doing so. The shot has been fired and it hit squarely in the corporate foot of Churchill Downs Inc. This was all so unnecessary. All they had to do was let Baffert back after the two-year ban ended. Instead, they kept moving the goal posts and double downed on what was a dubious punishment in the first place. This Derby and this Oaks will not be what they should be and Churchill has no one to blame but itself.

Oh, well. At least it should be a good GI Preakness S.

Maymun | Benoit

John Pimental Doesn't Get a Break

HISA/HIWU resolved its case against small-time trainer John Pimental last week. He has been handed a 15-month suspension and a fine of $10,000 for possession of banned thyroid medication, Thyro-L. Pimental also has an outstanding case against him for a methamphetamine positive. So he may be facing still more serious penalties.

You can read more about his story and his case by clicking here.

Yes, the rules are the rules and Pimental was not careful and did not properly dispose of the thyroid medication, even though he had a prescription to administer it to a stable pony. As for the methamphetamine positive, it almost has to be the result of human contamination. The bottom line is that the punishment does not come anywhere close to fitting the crime. John Pimental is not a cheat or a horse doper. At the very worst, he's guilty of not being careful when it came to the Thyro-L.

Yes, HISA/HIWU is a work in progress and since HIWU got off and running last May, they have altered some of their policies and have been less draconian when it comes to catching and penalizing people for drug violations.

But they haven't come far enough and the Pimental case is a prime example. By no means did he do anything to warrant a 15-month suspension and a $10,000 fine.

HISA needs to hire a Vice President of Common Sense, someone who understands racing, understands what is cheating and what is not, and can put the brakes on the organization when they go after people like John Pimental.

A Loaded Risen Star

With the exception of Mandaloun (Into Mischief), who was awarded the win in the Kentucky Derby after Medina Spirit was disqualified, the GII Risen Star S. at the Fair Grounds has never produced a Kentucky Derby winner. That could easily change this year as the 2024 edition is loaded with talent. Trained by Chad Brown, Sierra Leone (Gun Runner) is a $2.3 million Fasig-Tipton Saratoga purchase and will be favored. He was last seen closing from last to just miss by a nose in the GII Remsen S. He is clearly Brown's best chance yet to add a Derby win on to his record.

He'll have to come into New Orleans ready to run as the competition includes Hall of Fame (Gun Runner), also bought at Saratoga as a yearling for $1.4 million, who is coming off an impressive maiden win for Steve Asmussen. Then there's GII Kentucky Jockey Club winner Honor Marie (Honor Code); Smarty Jones winner Catching Freedom (Constitution) and GIII Lecomte S. Winner Track Phantom (Quality Road).

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Constitution Filly Skims Slop To Break Maiden At Oaklawn

1st-Oaklawn, $115,000, Msw, 2-11, 3yo/up, f/m, 1m, 1:39.82, sy, 3 lengths.
MERASOL SUGAR (f, 3, Constitution–Chanel Number Mine, by Value Plus) put in a solid final work Feb. 3 (:48, 4f, 1/63) in preparation for her debut with Lasix here. As a 6-1 shot, the lone first timer in the field cruised to the lead heading into the first turn, and continued to set all the fractions up the backstretch and around the far turn. The homebred had plenty in reserve down the lane and she splashed home by three lengths over Happy Happy (Uncle Mo). The winner is a half-sister to Chanel's Legacy (Dominus), MSW & GSP, $413,144, and is her dam's last registered foal. Chanel Number Mine visited both Lookin At Lucky and McKinzie for the spring. Sales History: $95,000 RNA Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $69,000. Click for the Equibase.com chart or VIDEO, sponsored by FanDuel TV.
O/B-H. Allen Poindexter (KY); T-John Alexander Ortiz.

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Letter to the Editor: Middle-Distance Focus is a Breeder’s Best Bet

Following from the excellent feature by Emma Berry in discussion with Harry Sweeney in Thursday's TDN, I felt compelled to write in. I, like many breeders and fans alike, was disappointed when the news of Adayar, Hukum and Westover's departures filtered through. Through various debates/heated discussions with my colleagues and fellow industry members, the usual argument was thrown back – would you use them yourself? Are they commercial?

Harry Sweeney's comments sparked a different debate in my mind. Theoretically we are all supposed to be breeding with the aim of producing top-class horses. By breeding for speed and the commercial market, are we really giving ourselves the best chance of achieving that goal? The Return of Mares suggests the majority believes it is, however the statistics suggest the opposite is true.

In 146 runnings of the Group 1 sprints in Europe over the past 30 years, 71% (103)  have been won by older horses with just 29% (43) won by three-year-olds and under.

Let me make it clear that this is not to blame the connections of Hukum, Adayar and Westover who have simply looked for the best opportunity for their middle-distance stars in Japan. Only a fool would argue that these horses would be given a better chance at stud in Europe than they are going to enjoy in Japan. We all seem to know it's wrong so the question is why does it keep happening? Harry Sweeney rightly pointed out that there are only two Group 1 races at sprint distances in Japan in the JRA. Are today's breeders aware that there is only one Group 1 sprint for three-year-olds only in Europe? There are 11 Group 1 races over 10f-plus restricted to three-year-olds. If that's not enough to encourage breeders to move away from cheap speed and precocity, add in races over a mile or further and the number of age-restricted Group 1s for your three-year-old is 17. And if that's still not enough, what about the following:

  • The only Group 1 sprint for three-year-olds only is over six furlongs so if your three-year-old sprinter is a 5f specialist, he/she will be taking on older horses from the day they turn three.
  • In 2023, Bradsell and Shaquille were the only three-year-olds to win one of 14 Group 1s over 5f-6f in Europe.
  • In the past 20 years, only three three-year-olds have won the King's Stand Stakes.
  • Four three-year-olds won the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes in the 20 years prior to it becoming restricted to four-year-olds and older in 2015 following the formation of the Commonwealth Cup (the only G1 sprint for three year olds only).
  • Eight three-year-olds have won the July Cup in the past 20 years.
  • Five three-year-olds have won the Prix Maurice de Gheest in the past 20 years  .
  • Four three-year-olds and one two-year-old have won the Nunthorpe in the past 20 years.
  • Nine three-year-olds have won the Haydock Sprint Cup in the same period.
  • In six runnings as a Group 1, the Flying Five Stakes has been won twice by three-year-olds.
  • The Prix de l'Abbaye has been won six times by three-year-olds and once by a two-year-old in the past 20 years.

Granted it may not be quite as black and white as Japan's lone pair of Group 1 sprints. However, that's at JRA tracks only versus the entirety of the Pattern in Europe. If the perceived time and patience, and thus extra cost, is your deterrent from breeding middle-distance horses the evidence suggests a change of direction. The best chance of striking at the highest level is undoubtedly with middle-distance horses and if you're not trying to give yourself the best chance of being the best then what's the point? Harry's reasons behind Japan's key focus seem equally applicable here in theory but for some unfortunate reason, not in practice.

Sincerely,
Laura Joy, Ireland

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Dominance is What Elite Sport is All About

The growing supremacy of the Willie Mullins stable in National Hunt racing begs the question: is it damaging anybody or anything?

Dominance is the raison d'etre of elite sport. When Rafa Nadal was winning 14 French Open tennis titles it never entered his head that what he was doing might be harmful to the game. Manchester City won't be thinking that five Premier League title wins in six seasons is quite enough, thank you very much, and that to make it six in seven would be detrimental. If you're preaching against reigns and dynasties, you might as well chastise the tide for going in and out.

But the issue raised by the Mullins operation's brilliant scouting and training of jump racers isn't about his right to annex the sport. The small flares of disquiet relate more to the effect it might have on public enjoyment, other trainers and owners, betting turnover and the sport's profile at a time when National Hunt racing is bedevilled by small fields and worrying economic indicators.

Let's lay out the stats.

  • Mullins is even money to train more winners at this year's Cheltenham Festival than Great Britain (one trainer versus a whole country)
  • He has 14 ante-post favourites for the 28 races at next month's meeting.
  • At the recent Dublin Racing Festival he won all eight Grade 1 races and saddled 29 of the 48 Grade 1 runners
  • Ten of the last 13 Cheltenham Festival leading trainer's titles have made their way back to his base in County Carlow
  • Entries for this year's Supreme, Ballymore, Albert Bartlett and Triumph revealed a total of 80 names from the Mullins yard

Nobody disputes the skill (and wealth) required to spot, buy, train and deliver horses capable of overwhelming Henry de Bromhead, Nicky Henderson, Paul Nicholls and Gordon Elliott. Henderson, it should be said, has the best horse in National Hunt training – Constitution Hill. The Mullins numbers are powerless to negate that reality. The hard part is knowing when success becomes weaponised – and starts to do harm.

Dissenting voices are few. Richard Johnson, the former champion jockey, is an admirer of Mullins, but sounded an ominous note in a recent discussion with BoyleSports bookmakers. Johnson said: “It definitely is not good for racing. It is not good for competitive sport. When you are looking at the racing at Dublin last weekend people were saying Irish racing is so strong. It's not Irish racing. It's Willie Mullins who is so strong.”

Johnson's belief that Mullins is distorting the Anglo-Irish balance of power is contradicted by this year's Grand National entries. Astonishingly: 61 of the 94 are trained in Ireland (54 was the previous high).

Another part of Johnson's lament is the repetitive nature of the storyline, which you could also sometimes diagnose in Flat racing, with Aidan O'Brien and Coolmore. “Looking at more of the same isn't great and doesn't encourage new people into our sport,” Johnson said.

Is this true? Plenty on the other side point to Tiger Woods and Usain Bolt and ask whether interest dipped when golf and Olympics sprinting felt like pageants.

In his Daily Mail column at the weekend, ITV Racing's Ed Chamberlin wrote: “Of course, true sport relies on competition but does the might of Mullins threaten to ruin Cheltenham? Not for one second. The archetypal racegoer to Cheltenham, or ITV viewer, simply wants a good time and a bet, especially an each-way one.”

Evidence to prove an exodus by punters put-off by odds-on favourites constantly 'going in' for Mullins would be hard to find, given the other possible socio-economic explanations for betting turnover fluctuations. And so far rival trainers are understandably wary of graffitiing the Mullins legend with accusations of unfairness.

Mullins is only six short of a century of Cheltenham Festival winners and we can expect the 100 to be reached next month at a course where, in 2022, he won a record 10 of the 28 races. Having 29 of the 86 entries for the Baring Bingham Novices' Hurdle is only one illustration of his power to swarm the biggest targets.

In football and other team sports, when a trophy is being raised and the tickertape is falling, a journalistic reflex prompts us to ask: is this the start of a dynasty, should everyone else panic, is a new age of dominance upon us? With Liverpool in the 1970s and 80s – yes. With Manchester United subsequently – yes. With Manchester City now – yes.

Often dominance entrances us. Sometimes it suggests imbalance, repetition, staleness, even injustice, if money is the real dominating force. The shadow debate in jump racing around the Mullins numbers hasn't shed much light on the effect on other good yards of owners taking the easy option of sending horses to Closutton, or on the polarisation of wealth in National Hunt racing, or whether racegoers and punters care who saddled the winner.

One thing, we know: being too polite to even discuss those aspects is a quiet form of harm.

 

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