Although stakes races usually run later in the day, this year's Grade 2 Joe Hernandez Stakes on turf runs as the first race on the card due to expected rain forecast to continue through the afternoon. Scheduled for the unique downhill turf course at Santa Anita in Arcadia, Calif., depending on the condition of the grass the race might be run at the same distance on the flat turf course. Either way, with a full field of 12 entered plus one also-eligible, the race should be an exciting one to watch and to wager on.
A number of horses have won graded stakes on the turf, including Lucky Score (G2 Highlander Stakes), Olympic Runner (G2 King Edward Stakes) and Balnikhov (G3 Bryan Station and G3 San Francisco Mile).
Forbidden Kingdom won the G2 San Vicente Stakes and G2 San Felipe Stakes on dirt and is trying grass for only the second time in his career. Front Run the Fed won the non-graded Van Clief Stakes this past July and the same race in 2022 and appears to fit with these, as does Turn on the Jets, who was second earlier this month in the Stormy Liberal Stakes, a race he won in 2022. Johnny Podres finished second down the hillside course in the California Flag Handicap in October and could have a say, as could Lovesick Blues, who missed winning the G3 Daytona Stakes by a neck and a head in the spring. Daniel's Magic is looking to improve off a fourth-place finish in the Stormy Liberal, while also-eligible Dancing Buck tries to return to the form shown when winning the G3 Belmont Turf Sprint in October 2022. Tahoe Sunrise has won two in row at a mile on dirt and is trying turf for the first time, as is Peaceful Waters. I'm a Gambler is winless in five races since importing to the U.S. from Europe nearly one year ago, but was only beaten a length when fourth in the similar G2 Eddie D Stakes down the hillside course in September.
Top contenders:
East Coast invader Olympic Runner occasionally runs brilliantly on the grass and this may be one of those occasions. His only win in 2023 came in a classified allowance race on turf in August, following three months off, but in his next start although fourth of 11, Olympic Runner ran even better as he was charging home late and beaten just a head and a neck behind multiple stakes winner Gear Jockey. That effort earned a 108 Equibase Speed Figure which, if repeated would be very competitive in this group. Back in 2021, Olympic Runner won the King Edward Stakes with a 114 figure and earned a 115 figure two races later in the Nearctic Stakes. He only ran twice last year, poorly both times, but when returning from a layoff in January of this year finished second, so having run so well off a layoff this past August and returning from a rest again for the Joe Hernandez, Olympic Runner could fire with one of his best efforts. An additional positive factor is jockey Umberto Rispoli, who rides for the first time and is one of the top jockeys on the course at Santa Anita, having won 25 percent of the time down the hillside course over the last year.
Daniel's Magic has only finished worse than third one time in six races this year, and both of his wins have come down the hillside turf course. Those came back-to-back in October, just three weeks apart, earning very strong 105 then 110 Equibase figures which are good enough to win this race if repeated. He didn't run so well when fourth in the Stormy Liberal Stakes earlier this month, but that race was much shorter at five furlongs, so returning to the 6 ½-furlong distance we could see a return to winning form. Jockey Kazushi Kimura rides for the first time, having just won the riding title at Woodbine and rode well on the turf as well as the main track. Kimura rode at Santa Anita last winter before returning to his home base in Canada and rode very well, winning or placing in seven of 25 downhill turf races.
Lucky Score faced the toughest group in his most recent race as compared to any of the other entrants in this race so drops significantly in class. He finished seventh of 13 in the G1 Breeders' Cup Mile and ran better than it looks as he was in traffic for most of the stretch run and finished just 2 ¼ lengths behind winner Master of the Seas and runner-up Mawj. That effort earned a field high last race 112 Equibase figure. Two races before that Lucky Score finished third behind Master of the Seas in the Woodbine Mile and in between those two he rallied from 10th to second in the Nearctic Stakes, so the cut back from a mile to this similar distance bodes well for a top effort.
The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Balnikhov (IRE) (111), Dancing Buck (107), Forbidden Kingdom (110), Front Run the Fed (110), I'm a Gambler (IRE) (111), Johnny Podres (109), Lovesick Blues (108), Peaceful Waters (103), Tahoe Sunrise (102) and Turn on the Jets (IRE) (106).
Win contenders, in preference/probability order:
Olympic Runner
Daniel's Magic
Lucky Score
Joe Hernandez Stakes – Grade 2. $200,000
Santa Anita: Saturday, Dec. 30, 2023; Race 1, Post Time 3 p.m. ET
About 6 ½ furlongs on downhill turf course, 3-year-olds and upward
Ellis Starr is national racing analyst for Equibase.
The post Equibase Analysis: Olympic Runner Can Get Gold in Joe Hernandez Stakes appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.
Source of original post
