October, 2023 | Horse Racing Free Tips

Bay Bridge Ready To Defend QIPCO Champion Stakes Crown

James Wigan & Ballylinch Stud's Bay Bridge (GB) will bid to become the first horse since Cracksman in 2018 to win back-to-back editions of the QIPCO Champion Stakes (G1) at Ascot. This Saturday, the British flat racing season comes to its conclusion with two Breeders' Cup Challenge Series: Win and You're In races featured as part of a spectacular card. The Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (sponsored by QIPCO) (G1) gives the winner an automatic starting position for the $2 million FanDuel Breeders' Cup Mile (G1) and the winner of the QIPCO Champion Stakes (G1) earns an invitation to the $4 million Longines Breeders' Cup Turf (G1).

The Breeders' Cup Challenge Series is an international series of 80 Graded/Group stakes races whose winners receive automatic starting positions and fees paid into a corresponding race of the Breeders' Cup World Championships, scheduled to be held Nov. 3-4 at Santa Anita Park in Arcadia, California.

Top Stars Align for Champion Stakes

Eight runners have been declared to take on the Sir Michael Stoute-trained Bay Bridge in the 1 1/4-mile QIPCO Champion Stakes. The son of New Bay (GB) finished a creditable sixth behind Ace Impact (IRE) in the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (G1) on Oct. 1, but weakened inside the final furlong over 1 1/2-miles. However, he is reported to have returned from the French capital in excellent condition and now returns to his optimum distance at Ascot.

“He appears to have come out of the Arc well and he ran very well there. If he can go back and defend his crown, that would be wonderful. It looks like this is his best trip and his highest ratings are at 1 1/4-miles,” said John O'Connor of Ballylinch Stud, who owns the horse with James Wigan.

Storm Babet has hit the U.K. this week with the condition on the straight and round courses at Ascot changed to soft on Thursday, after almost 13mm (about half an inch) of overnight rain. With further rain forecast on Friday, there will likely be testing conditions at Ascot on Saturday. French raider Horizon Dore (FR) is one horse who will relish the ground. There have been three French-trained winners of the QIPCO Champion Stakes since the race moved to Ascot in 2011 and the Patrice Cottier-trained 3-year-old son of Dabirsim (FR) will be hoping to emulate Cirrus Des Aigles (FR), Almanzor (FR), and Sealiway (FR). Horizon Dore has won four consecutive races, including a stylish victory in the Sept. 30 Qatar Prix Dollar (G2) at Longchamp. This will be his first attempt at Group 1 level.

King Of Steel is set to be Frankie Dettori's final ride in the UK. Narrowly denied Betfred Derby (G1) glory by Auguste Rodin (IRE), the son of Wootton Bassett (GB) easily won the King Edward VII Stakes (G2) at Royal Ascot before running well in defeat in both the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth QIPCO Stakes (G1) and the Royal Bahrain Irish Champion Stakes (G1). With owners Amo Racing no longer retaining jockey Kevin Stott, Dettori has been called up for what is scheduled to be the Italian's final mount in Europe.

The John and Thady Gosden-trained Mostahdaf (IRE), already the winner of two Breeders' Cup Challenge Series Races this season – the Prince of Wales's Stakes (G1) and the Juddmonte International Stakes (G1) – is only a possible runner on Saturday with connections expressing concerns about the likelihood of testing ground in Berkshire. Having already secured an automatic starting position into the $6 million Longines Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) and the $4 million Longines Breeders' Cup Turf (G1), he could be set for the Breeders' Cup if he doesn't run at Ascot.

The George Boughey-trained Via Sistina (IRE), a 2-length winner of the July 1 Yulong Pretty Polly Stakes (G1), will be partnered by Oisin Murphy as she takes on the colts for the first time this season.

My Prospero (IRE) finished third, a half-length behind Bay Bridge in this race last year, and will once again team with Tom Marquand for trainer William Haggas. He was last seen winning the Foundation Stakes (Listed) at Goodwood. Dubai Honour (IRE), second in this race in 2021, will also line up for William Haggas.

The progressive Royal Rhyme (IRE) and the Aidan O'Brien-trained Point Lonsdale (IRE) complete the field.

Irish Strongly Represented in Queen Elizabeth II Stakes

There hasn't been an Irish-trained winner of the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Sponsored by QIPCO) since Minding (IRE) won in 2016, but Irish contenders look to hold a strong hand in Saturday's renewal with Paddington (GB) and Tahiyra (IRE).

Paddington's six-race unbeaten record came to an end in the Juddmonte Stakes (G1) in August over 1 1/4-miles but Aidan O'Brien has given the son of Siyouni (FR) a 60-day break to freshen him up. Paddington was particularly impressive at Ascot in the St James's Palace Stakes (G1), around a bend, and the straight mile on Saturday should suit him even better given he has proven his stamina over 1 1/4-miles.

Meanwhile, four-time Group 1 winner Tahiyra has been beaten just once in six career starts, when edged out by Mawj in the QIPCO 1000 Guineas. Her trainer Dermot Weld looks set to make a late call on her participation with the potential for very soft ground on her first start outside of her own sex a concern for Weld. Should Tahiyra sidestep Ascot, she would have the option of traveling to America for the Breeders' Cup.

The John and Thady Gosden-trained Nashwa (GB) finished a neck ahead of Paddington in the Juddmonte International Stakes before finishing an unlucky third in the Royal Bahrain Champion Stakes. She drops down to a mile for the first time since her emphatic victory in the July 14 Tattersalls Falmouth Stakes (G1) at Newmarket. The yard will also be represented by Epictetus (IRE).

France will be represented by Big Rock (FR) and Facteur Cheval (IRE). Big Rock has finished second in three consecutive Group 1 races, with the most recent effort coming in the Prix du Moulin de Longchamp (G1) with Facteur Cheval a half-length back in third.

QICPO 2000 Guineas (G1) hero Chaldean (GB) will make his comeback to the track after 106 days off. He will be partnered by Frankie Dettori.

Angel Bleu (FR) flew home late to land the Aug. 26 William Hill Celebration Mile Stakes (G2) on soft ground at Goodwood, and connections supplemented the son of Dark Angel (IRE) at a cost of £70,000.

Other contenders include the Tom Clover-trained Rogue Millennium (IRE), William Knight's Checkandchallenge (GB), and the Kevin Ryan-trained Hi Royal (IRE)

As part of the benefits of the Challenge Series, Breeders' Cup will pay the entry fees for the winners of the Challenge Series winners to start at this year's Breeders' Cup World Championships. Breeders' Cup will also provide a travel allowance for all starters based outside of North America to compete in the World Championships. The Challenge winner must be nominated to the Breeders' Cup program by the Championships' pre-entry deadline of Oct. 23 to receive the rewards.

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Equibase Analysis: Vahva May Have Edge Over Alva Starr In Raven Run

This Saturday's Grade 2, $350,000 Lexus Raven Run Stakes at Keeneland showcases some of the top 3-year-old filly sprinters in North America. Six of the nine entrants won their most recent races, with four of those victories coming in stakes races.

Alva Starr won at the highest level when taking the G2 Prioress Stakes last month and hopes to do the same while running this seven furlong distance for the first time. Vahva won the G3 Charles Town Oaks at the distance of the Raven Run and hopes to duplicate that effort. Lady Radler pulled off the 23 to 1 upset in the G3 Dogwood Stakes four weeks ago at the same distance and adds to the depth of contention.

Apple Picker ships in from Maryland off a strong 4 1/2-length win in the Weather Vane Stakes, while Ancient Peace cuts back in distance after a second of eight finish in the G3 Remington Park Oaks one month ago. Dazzling Blue was no match for Alva Starr in the Prioress but prior to that finished second in the G3 Victory Ride Stakes at 6 1/2 furlongs.

Nom de Plume was last seen winning a two-turn race on turf in August and tries stakes company and dirt for the first time but may be this good. Simply Stated won the Penn Ladies Dash Stakes in August and enters the race looking for her fifth straight win. Lily Poo rounds out the field, coming into the race off a pair of fifth place finishes, the most recent in the Charles Town Oaks.

Top Contenders:

Vahva may have the slightest edge over Alva Starr in this race because her most recent start in late August winning the Charles Town Oaks came at the same seven furlong distance of the Raven Run Stakes. Not only that, but the course configuration at Charles Town is such that seven furlong trip was around two-turns, which can be more difficult to navigate than one turn. The cut back in turns may help Vahva to run as well, or better, than she did in the Oaks, where she stalked in third for the first six furlongs, then came out three paths wide to win going away. That effort earned her a career-best 100 Equibase® Speed Figure, a nice improvement off the 91 figure she earned a little over one month earlier when third in the Victory Ride Stakes. Considering Vahva had been away from the races for two months before the Victory Ride, her pattern for more improvement is pretty obvious. It must also be noted that the 2022 Raven Run Winner (Caramel Swirl) used the Charles Town Oaks as her final start before victory in this race.

Alva Starr has never finished worse than second in five races, winning three and placing in the other two. Her last two efforts have been her most impressive, first when winning the Dashing Beauty Stakes in July with a career-best 106 figure then winning the Prioress Stakes by nearly nine lengths. Although the 103 figure in the Prioress was lower than the 106 figure in her prior start, Alva Starr was geared down in the last sixteenth of a mile so she could have run faster. An interesting fact about this filly is she is a full sister to Cilla, who won a number of stakes and earned a half-million dollars, including when third in the 2021 Raven Run following a win in the Prioress, for the same trainer (Brinkman). If there is one concern, it is that every race Alva Starr has run has been at the distance of six furlongs, so this will be her first attempt at a longer distance.

Honorable mention goes to two more talented fillies. The first of the pair is Simply Stated, as she's won four in a row including the Penn Ladies Dash Stakes in August with a 95 figure. After that, Simply Stated won on the all-weather surface at Presque Isle Downs, earning at 92 figure. What's interesting to note is that her trainer, Todd Beattie, shipped in Taris to win this race in 2014 off an identical win at Presque Isle Downs at six furlongs. Lady Radler is the other horse who I feel deserves honorable mention. She paid $48 (for $2) when winning the Dogwood Stakes last month at this distance. She won two races in a row this summer and last year she ran very well to finish second at 30 to 1 in the Myrtlewood Stakes at Keeneland. The first of her two wins this spring came in the Goldfinch Stakes, in which she earned a career-best 96 figure. As a filly with five wins in 10 races, she has some quality about her and can't be discarded as a contender.

The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Ancient Peace (96), Apple Picker (92), Dazzling Blue (94), Lily Poo (90) and Nom de Plume (86).

Win Contenders:
Vahva
Alva Starr

Contenders for second or third:
Simply Stated
Lady Radler

Lexus Raven Run Stakes – Grade 2
Race 9 at Keeneland
Saturday, October 21 – Post Time 5:16 PM E.T.
Seven Furlongs
Fillies, Three Years Old
Purse: $350,000

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NTRA Helps Secure New USDA Guidance For Equine Testing During Import Quarantine

The NTRA reported new guidance out of the U.S. Department of Agriculture which will streamline the glanders testing protocol for importing horses into the United States, the organization said in a release Friday morning.

USDA's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service update, Veterinary Services Guidance 13407.3, introduces a new procedure effective Oct. 10 for glanders, which has been susceptible to produce false positives when horses were tested during their import quarantine.

“One of the number one issues I've heard in this job is how cumbersome USDA testing protocols slow down the import of horses and have in some instances left horses in quarantine unnecessarily for weeks,” said NTRA President and CEO Tom Rooney. “This updated guidance will help prevent needless delays for our owners and farms. We appreciate USDA and look forward to continuing to work with them to modernize common sense reforms for our industry.”

Click here to learn more.

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National Horseracing Museum Stages Kemp-Welsh Exhibit

The National Horseracing Museum in Newmarket will stage the first major retrospective of paintings by Lucy Kemp-Welch, considered Britain's best female equine painter. Kemp-Welsh is perhaps best known for her illustrations of Black Beauty in Anna Sewell's famous novel.

The exhibition, titled “In her own voice: the art of Lucy Kemp-Welch,” will be open from Oct. 21 through Feb. 25, 2024. Several of the paintings are on display to the public for the first time and visitors to The National Horseracing Museum can view over 60 pieces from Kemp-Welch's lifetime, several on loan from private and public collections, including The Imperial War Museum, The Tate, Bushey Museum and Art Gallery (where she studied under Hubert von Herkomer) and Southampton City Art Gallery

The exhibition is included with general admission. For more information visit the National Horseracing Museum website.

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