‘As Important As Any Horse We’ve Raised On The Farm’: Believe You Can Continues Building Her Airdrie Stud Legacy At Keeneland September Sale

Believe You Can had already done plenty for the Airdrie Stud operation when she retired to the farm to begin her broodmare career ahead of the 2014 breeding season.

Her place as one of the best home-grown runners in in the deep-rooted history of the Airdrie program was secure after winning the 2012 Kentucky Oaks and earning more than $1.2 million over a three-year career.

However, the stud book is full of great racemares that never came close to repeating their success when they entered the breeding shed. Whether it's the near-impossible expectations of lightning striking twice within a bloodline, or the great breeder Federico Tesio's hypothesis that great racemares have expended their “nervous energy” on the track and have none left to give their foals, the odds weren't necessarily in Believe You Can's favor.

Once again, though, she answered the call and has transitioned from one of the Jones family's stars on the racetrack to a cornerstone of their broodmare band.

That started with her first foal, the Tapit colt Believe in Royalty, who became a Grade 3-placed stakes winner, and it has continued with the Collected colt Conclude, who recently won the Grade 2 Del Mar Derby to tally his third career stakes win.

Believe You Can has also been a commercial boon to the Airdrie operation in her second career. Believe in Royalty sold for $900,000 as a yearling, and full-sister Birdy Num brought $1 million at auction a year later. However, her biggest impact on the auction scene was with Brother in Arms, a War Front colt who sold to Godolphin for $2.9 million at the 2019 Keeneland September sale.

“She's been as important as any horse that we've raised on the farm, not only for what she did for us during her racing career, but what she's done as a broodmare,” said Airdrie Stud's Bret Jones. “Now, we hope her daughters and sons can continue to do that for the farm. We kept a really nice Uncle Mo filly out of her a couple years ago (the placed Faith's Reward), and she'll be bred well, and I believe Conclude has a stallion future ahead of him, so hopefully that legacy will be around for a long time.”

The next chapter of Believe You Can's story will take place Monday during the opening session of the Keeneland September Yearling Sale, where Airdrie Stud will offer Hip 31, a Nyquist filly out of the farm's star mare.

The bay filly is by a son of Uncle Mo, meaning the cross is similar to that of Faith's Reward, the filly out of Believe You Can that Airdrie kept to one day join their broodmare band. Looking further back, Nyquist's sire Uncle Mo is a son of Indian Charlie, who stood the bulk of his stud career at Airdrie Stud.

“She's a beautiful filly,” Jones said. “We're very lucky to have her. She's been nice since day one, and we've been looking forward to showing her for a long time…This filly, I really think is the nicest foal we've had from her.”

Hip 31 Nyquist – Believe You Can

Jones said Believe You Can took to motherhood naturally when she entered her new career, and passing on her mind was a trademark of her foals. The Nyquist filly on offer Monday was no different.

“They're both such classy fillies, both just medium-sized, really well balanced,” he said. “Just looks like a racehorse, and her mom looked like a racehorse. If she's half as good a racehorse as her mother was, everyone will be happy.”

While her yearling filly goes through her paces at the Keeneland sales grounds, Believe You Can remains in her pasture at Airdrie Stud, pregnant to Airdrie's fast-rising sire Upstart.

She'd be a popular fixture on the property regardless of her personality, but Jones said Believe You Can enjoys the attention.

“She's an absolute sweetheart,” he said. “I actually tried to take a picture of her the other day. She was standing under this big oak tree, and we had this wonderful moment in the morning where it was going to be this great picture, and as soon as I got out of my car to take it, she ran over to me so I could pet her. She completely blew the shot, but that's just the personality she's got. She's a really cool mare to be around.”

Looking at the career of Believe You Can, some of the biggest flashpoints of her life have been times when nothing happened.

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In 2010, she was offered at the Keeneland September sale, and she finished under her reserve with a final bid of $70,000. Four years later, she went through the ring pregnant to Tapit – an in-utero foal that would become Believe in Royalty – at the Fasig-Tipton November Sale, and she once again hammered under her reserve. This time around, the hammer price was $4.9 million.

That might sound like a lot of money to turn down, but Jones said his father, Brereton Jones, wasn't terribly bothered to put her back on the trailer.

“If I were a betting man, the odds would have been about 1-to-5 that she was going to stay at Airdrie, but Pop wanted to test the market,” the younger Jones said. “He gave the market a chance, and I don't think anyone was sad when she didn't bring what we hoped, and I can promise you Libby Jones (Brereton's wife and Bret's mother) wasn't sad. I think she was the happiest person in central Kentucky, and I think Mom was right.”

Since entering production, Believe You Can has done a bit of everything when it comes to who she's been bred to, from going to top commercial sires like Tapit and War Front to supporting Airdrie roster members such as Collected and Upstart. As a correct, medium-sized mare, Jones said she fits well with practically any body type on a stallion.

Believe You Can lost a foal from the first book of Darley's Essential Quality earlier this year, and she was sent to Upstart for the 2024 foaling season.

“We're just extremely bullish on Upstart and his future,” Jones said. “I think what you've already seen him do with lesser quality mares is pretty incredible. You look at how he improves his mares and all the data around that, the last couple years, his books have been incredible, and it shows you our belief in his future that we'd send Believe You Can to him. I think when these top mares, their foals start hitting the racetracks, there's no ceiling on what he can do.”

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Large Fields, Quality Racing Mark Successful Del Mar Meet

Del Mar marked eight weeks of increased field sizes and high-quality racing that ended Sunday.

“Overall, just a tremendous summer of quality racing,” Racing Secretary David Jerkens says. “Especially Pacific Classic Day. You look back and see how strong of a card that was. I think some of the winners and horses that ran well on that card have bright futures for the Breeders' Cup.”

The talk around the racing industry is the field sizes again this year at Del Mar.

“It was a robust number that I think any track in the country would kill for,” Jerkens says. “We knew last year would be difficult to match but we are very close to what we had last year. I think two years in a row, when you're over or hovering around nine runners a race, that's a pretty strong accomplishment.”

The average field size for the dirt races at Del Mar this summer was 8.47 and for the turf races it was 9.50. Stake races had an AFS of 8.56.

“We had a strong product throughout,” Jerkens notes. “We did have the (one day) weather cancellation but we made up all those races that were canceled.”

Tropical Storm Hilary was the only hiccup all summer. The storm prompted horse evacuations, canceled racing Aug. 20 and eventually dumped two inches of rain on the backside. But from all reports afterward, what little flooding there was in the stable area had no impact on the horses and things were back to normal in just a couple of days.

The “Ship & Win” program was a success once again this summer, contributing to the large field sizes.

“The results were pretty much what we expected,” Jerkens says. “I think we were 14% off the number of starters from last year but that was another expectation we had to curtail a bit because we knew, in reality, it would be hard to match. We may still end up with our second most  Ship & Win' runners.”

Heading into the final weekend, 171 “Ship & Win” starters debuted at Del Mar this summer. Twenty three made it to the winner's circle, six last week.

“You can do all these different programs,” Jerkens concedes, “but all that means nothing unless you get the support in the entry box. That's what we had from our horsemen once again.”

So, now we look ahead to the fall meet, something Jerkens has already started planning.

“Hopefully we'll have our stakes schedule released in the upcoming weeks,” Jerkens says. “We're starting to plant seeds for the fall. Generally, if the weather cooperates and we're able to run on the grass we'll have a successful meet. Last year everything went well, knock on wood. We were fortunate in terms of the weather. We had really strong fields our last two weekends and expectations are for more of the same, but a lot is dependent on the rain.”

The four-week Bing Crosby meet kicks off the week after the Breeders' Cup, November 10.

For Jerkens, the end of the summer meet is the end of a very long process that actually goes year round.

“Absolutely,” Jerkens says. “You hear from more people across the country than normal about them taking notice of what Del Mar had to offer this summer. I think we had the strongest day-to-day race product around this summer.”

“My staff worked really hard,” Jerkens continues. “There's a lot of planning that goes into it. You don't just show up Opening Day and here it is. But again, so many owners and trainers really want to be part of Del Mar and they provided tremendous support this summer.”

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Debutante Winner Tamara Eyes Breeders’ Cup

'TDN Rising Star' Tamara (Bolt d'Oro) was resting comfortably in her stall Sunday morning, the day after capturing the GI FanDuel Racing Del Mar Debutante S.

The daughter of Hall of Famer Beholder sat closer to the pace than in her maiden victory. When jockey Mike Smith asked her, Tamara breezed past the pacesetter, opened up by the top of the lane and cruised home much the best.

The comments afterward told it all.

“It gave me chills,” winning trainer Richard Mandella remarked.

“I've been here in California for four years,” jockey Umberto Rispoli said as he came off the track following his seventh-place finish in the race. “I have never seen anything like that.”

“You don't often see the offspring of a great mare run anywhere close to what they did,” jockey Mike Smith told FanDuel. “But she's an exception to the rule.”

They were talking about the daughter of Bolt d'Oro on the backstretch Sunday morning.

“It was outstanding,” trainer Peter Miller remarked. “She looked like her mother.”

Mandella says Tamara came out of the race fine. In regards to a Breeders' Cup prep, he says they would play it by ear.

“There's a chance we might run her in the GI Chandelier S. Oct. 7 at Santa Anita,” Mandella says. “If it looks like she needs to run again, then we'll run her there. If not we'll point her straight to the Breeders' Cup. But so far she looks great.”

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Observations: Half to Almanzor Debuts at Saint-Cloud

Observations on the European Racing Scene turns the spotlight on the best European races of the day, highlighting well-pedigreed horses early in their careers, horses of note returning to action and young runners that achieved notable results in the sales ring. Monday's Insights features a half to MG1SW Almanzor (Fr) (Wootton Bassett {GB}).

15.52 Saint-Cloud, Debutantes, €30,000, 2yo, 6 1/2fT
RADHARANI (IRE) (Kingman {GB}), who debuts for owner-breeder George Strawbridge and the Tim Donworth stable, is a half-sister to the G1 Prix du Jockey Club, G1 Champion S. and G1 Irish Champion S. hero and sire Almanzor (Fr). Also related to the G1 Poule d'Essai des Pouliches, G1 Prix d'Astarte and G1 Prix du Moulin heroine Darjina (Fr) (Zamindar), she faces seven on this racecourse bow.

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