August, 2023 | Horse Racing Free Tips

Lake Forest Back To Novice Company At Newmarket

Observations on the European Racing Scene turns the spotlight on the best European races of the day, highlighting well-pedigreed horses early in their careers, horses of note returning to action and young runners that achieved notable results in the sales ring. Friday's Observations features a group-placed son of No Nay Never.

17.45 Newmarket, Novice, £8,000, 2yo, 6fT
LAKE FOREST (GB) (No Nay Never) is handed a confidence-restoring outing by William Haggas at his local track at which he was second in the G2 July S. over this trip. Silver Racing's son of the G3 Sirenia S.-placed Lady Aquitaine (El Prado {Ire}) from the family of the G1 Irish 2000 Guineas and G1 Criterium International hero Roderic O'Connor (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}) will be a warm order to win this race which for the last four years has boasted subsequent group-winning sprinters including Noble Style (GB) (Kingman {GB}) 12 months ago.

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Equibase Analysis: Giant Game Could Get Easy Lead, Post Upset In Whitney

Cody's Wish leads the field in this Saturday's Grade 1 $1 million Whitney Stakes, having won six straight races, including five Grade 1 stakes, most recently the G1 Metropolitan Handicap. Last year's Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile Stakes winner, Cody's Wish could earn an automatic berth to the Breeders' Cup Classic with a win.

Five are lined up with a different opinion, that group led by G2 Suburban Stakes winner Charge It. Another horse whose connections are hoping to post the upset is Giant Game, who won the G3 Cornhusker Handicap at the distance of the Whitney in his most recent race. Metropolitan Handicap runner-up Zandon and third place finisher White Abarrio hope to turn the tables on Cody's Wish, while Last Samurai may round out the field but is no slouch, having captured the G3 Razorback Handicap and G3 Essex Handicap in succession earlier this year.

Analysis & Contenders:

In a field of six, there is potential for a horse to control the tempo on the front end and get away with soft fractions which allow for a big finish, potentially holding on for the win in spite of the logically oncoming rush of a horse like Cody's Wish, and that horse may be Giant Game. This 4-year-old didn't do much after winning in the fall of 2021 in his second career start and first route, losing seven straight. However, as often happens in the spring of a horse's 4-year-old campaign, something switched on with this colt starting two races back on May 11. He's won both races since, on May 11 and July 11, earning a 100 Equibase® Speed Figure followed by a new career-best 105 figure.

What caused Giant Game to mature and become a force to be reckoned with appears to be that he was allowed to roll from the start in both those recent races, his only two-turn races of the year. In the most recent of the pair, Giant Game controlled the pace in the Cornhusker Handicap four weeks ago and handled the field of 10 with relative ease. That was his first ever try at the nine-furlong distance of the Whitney. With a jockey change to Luis Saez, who can be appropriately aggressive in the early stages, it is very likely Giant Game will have the lead shortly after the start. With no other horse in the field having shown a liking for leading early, Saez and Giant Game could get into a steady rhythm, and not only can a lone front running horse like this colt get very brave on the front end, as a 4-year-old with room to improve we might see a big improvement in his speed figure, good enough to post the upset and win.

Cody's Wish still may be very tough to beat even if the lone front running trip of Giant Game materializes, as he's an “ALPHA” horse who just does whatever it takes to win, and often in dominant fashion. Since returning from six months off following his career-best effort winning the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile last fall with a career-best 116 figure, Cody's Wish has been more dominant. In the Churchill Downs Stakes on May 6, Cody's Wish blew past six horses on the far turn to win by nearly five lengths with a 110 figure as if he had never been away. Then on June 10 in the Metropolitan Handicap, Cody's wish swept from eighth of nine to the lead while going five paths wide and propelled himself to be in front by four lengths when the field hit the stretch, easily coasting home to victory. That effort equaled his Breeders' Cup figure of 116 and in his third start of the year even better may be forthcoming. Although bred to handle this nine-furlong trip with as much ease as the mile of the Metropolitan, it is important to note that Cody's Wish has most of his work around one turn, and has never won at a distance past one mile. Granted, Hall-of-Fame trainer Bill Mott has had no reason to run the horse longer distances because there have been enough graded stakes he could run in, but just the same this two-turn, mile and one-eighth trip, is not yet proven to be one he is as good at.

If he can repeat his best effort of 2023, Last Samurai may have a shot to post the upset win, or at least run better than his odds suggest he will. That effort came in the Razorback Handicap in February where Last Samurai earned a career-best 119 figure, higher than the pair of 116 figures likely prohibitive betting favorite Cody's Wish earned in the Metropolitan Handicap and Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile. Last Samurai followed up his Razorback victory winning the Essex Handicap in March with a 111 figure, before a head defeat in the Oaklawn Handicap at the distance of the Whitney. Since then, Last Samurai finished fourth on two occasions, but it must be noted his Razorback win came on the heels of a fourth place effort as well. Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas has won the Whitney twice. In 1986 he won with the filly Lady's Secret and in 1990 with Criminal Type, and it just might be fitting to win it again after three decades have passed since that last win.

The three above are my top three win contenders, but I would not argue with anyone considering any of the remaining trio as contenders. Zandon finished second in the Metropolitan Handicap with a career-best 110 figure but was no match whatsoever for Cody's Wish. Similarly, White Abarrio was a head behind Zandon when third but it must be noted he did stumble at the start. That effort earned the same 110 figure, and his best came when third and beaten a half-length last December in the Cigar Mile Handicap, but it must be noted both those efforts came at a mile around one turn, not the two-turn nine furlongs trip of the Whitney. Charge It ran the fastest race if his career 13 months ago when winning the Dwyer Stakes by 23 lengths with a 114 figure, but that was also a one-turn mile. He cuts back in distance following a win at a mile and one-quarter in the Suburban Stakes with a 108 figure, following a fourth place finish in the Metropolitan Handicap behind Cody's Wish, Zandon and White Abarrio.

Win Contenders, in preference order:
Giant Game
Cody's Wish
Last Samurai

Whitney Stakes – Grade 1
Race 10 at Saratoga
Saturday, August 5 – Post Time 5:42 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Eighth
Four Year Olds and Upward
Purse: $1 Million

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Del Mar Summer: Rising Star Berrios Making All The Right Moves

At the start of the 2022 summer meet at Del Mar, few people in Southern California had ever heard of jockey Hector I. Berrios. But his brilliant winning ride in the Wickerr Stakes aboard Argentine-bred Irideo for trainer Marcelo Polanco caught the attention of horseplayers and horsemen alike. Going a mile on turf, Berrios allowed Irideo to settle at the back of the pack while saving ground, found room along the rail into the stretch, swung out to split horses with a furlong to run and won by three quarters of a length going away, paying $65 to his backers.

Two weeks after the Wickerr, Berrios struck again, winning the Grade 1 Clement L. Hirsch Stakes aboard Blue Stripe, another product of Argentina's breeding program from the Polanco stable. This one was not as big a surprise, Blue Stripe paying $12.60 as the 5-1 third choice in a field of five. Berrios finished the summer meet with 18 wins from 127 mounts, putting him a surprising fifth in the standings.

For Berrios, a 36-year-old native of Santiago, Chile, the 2022 Clement L. Hirsch was his first graded stakes victory in North America. But it was far from his first big-race triumph. With over 2,500 wins in his native country, including eight victories in Chilean classic races, he was used to getting top mounts. But carrying that resume to the United States didn't translate into immediate success.

Berrios first rode in the U.S. in the spring of 2011, starting out in Florida and moving his tack to Southern California midway into the summer meet at Del Mar, where he won three races from 11 mounts, including the CTT and TOC Stakes aboard Peruvian-bred Private Affair for trainer Ruben Cardenas. After enjoying some success at Santa Anita and in South Florida in 2011-'12, he returned to Chile, riding there five years before returning to Florida in July 2018. He continued to win races at Gulfstream Park, but never got much of an opportunity with top-level horses.

By last summer, Berrios was ready to try California again, teaming up with agent Michael Burns. The numbers confirmed it was the right move. At year's end, Berrios' mounts won 68 races and earned $3,872,506 – by far his best year earnings-wise.

And 2023 has only gotten better.

Berrios has added seven more graded stakes wins to his ledger this year, including last weekend's Grade 1 Bing Crosby aboard California-bred The Chosen Vron and the Grade 2 Eddie Read Stakes with Irish-bred Gold Phoenix. Those horses keyed riding triples for Berrios on both the July 29 and July 30 programs.

Through the first seven racing days at Del Mar, Berrios is atop the rider standings, tied with the current Southern California leader Juan Hernandez, each with 11 wins. Only one of the 11 wins by Berrios came aboard a betting favorite, compared with four for Hernandez. All but two of his wins were on turf, but his ride in the Bing Crosby showed he can get the job done on dirt as well. His $3,993,330 year-to-date mount earnings have already exceeded last year's total, with a lot of big races yet to come.

He's definitely one to keep an eye on.

By The Numbers

Through the first two weeks of the meet (seven days, 70 races), average field size is 9.7 runners per race (9.0 on dirt, 10.7 on turf). There have been 40 races on dirt and 30 on turf. The Ship & Win program is working, but the racing department deserves credit for putting together excellent, competitive cards so far.

Average parimutuel payoff is $13.61, with a median of $9.80. Not much difference between turf and dirt, with turf average payoff $13.21 and $13.92 on dirt.

The percentage of winning favorites overall is 27.1 percent (30 percent on dirt, 23.3 percent on turf). Larger fields make for fewer winning favorites.

Front-runners have not fared well so far, on dirt or turf.

Of the 40 dirt races, only four winners led at every call. Sixteen winners pressed the pace or were forwardly placed, with 12 racing in midpack, and eight closing from the back end of the field.

Of the 30 turf races, only one horse went wire to wire (and that was in a two-turn race). Six winners pressed the pace or were forwardly placed, 11 were in midpack, and 12 closed from the back.

It's been a pattern in recent years that front-runners on turf are more successful as the meet goes on. Keep that in mind as you handicap the Jimmy Durante grass course.

Two jockeys – the aforementioned Berrios and Umberto Rispoli – have been especially dominating on turf, winning 15 of the 30 races run so far (Berrios nine, Rispoli six).

Among trainers, Phil D'Amato has won seven turf races, with one victory on the main track.

Overall, 38 trainers have won races this summer at Del Mar, with D'Amato's eight victories leading the way. Doug O'Neill and Bob Baffert are tied with six wins apiece, with Peter Miller winning four.

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Lukas: Last Samurai ‘Very Much Worth Of Having A Shot’ In Whitney

Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas hasn't been shy to swing for the fences en route to surprising upset triumphs at top level. The 87-years-young conditioner will be doing just that on Saturday when he saddles multiple graded stakes winner Last Samurai in the 96th running of the Grade 1, $1 million Whitney at Saratoga Race Course.

Owned by Willis Horton Racing, Last Samurai enters the prestigious nine-furlong test for older horses from a pair of fourth-place finishes in the Grade 1 Stephen Foster on July 1 at Ellis Park and the Grade 2 Alysheba on May 5 at Churchill Downs. The 5-year-old Malibu Moon chestnut enjoyed a strong run of form earlier in the year at Oaklawn Park, capturing the Razorback on February 18 and the Essex on March 18 – both Grade 3 tests going 1 1/16 miles – before finishing second beaten a head in the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap on April 22.

Last Samurai will be making his Saratoga debut in the Whitney, and Lukas said the multimillionaire horse could be even more effective over the Spa main track.

“I think he cares for a little deeper surface and I think he might do even better on this racetrack,” Lukas said. “He's in top form and you don't have any excuses other than the fact that he can't run fast enough, if that's the case. But I think he'll do very, very well.”

Lukas tipped his cap to 1-2 morning line favorite Cody's Wish, who enters the Whitney – which offers a “Win and You're In” berth to the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Classic – from a six-race win streak, including four Grade 1 races, and expressed appreciation for the history and importance behind the Whitney.

“I thought our horse fits here and is very much worthy of having a shot in here,” Lukas said. “I have great respect for Cody's Wish and all of them. But given the prestige of the race and the amount of the purse, it would maybe be better to take that chance and see how close we can get to these other horses and better evaluate whether we're Breeders' Cup worthy down the line. To win a Whitney or to be one-two-three in the Whitney counts double to these other stakes. It has so much prestige.”

Since the inception of the Breeders' Cup World Thoroughbred Championships in 1984, the Whitney has seen eight of its winners capture Breeders' Cup glory at the end of the year. Among these horses are 1986 winner and Lukas alumna Lady's Secret, who defeated males en route to a Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Distaff triumph and, subsequently, Horse of the Year honors.

In 1990, Lukas captured the Whitney with Criminal Type who also earned Horse of the Year honors at the end of his campaign.

“When I won it with Lady's Secret against the colts, it made her Horse of the Year. That one race cemented her as Horse of the Year,” recalled Lukas. “So, I think the race is such a prestigious and important race that we're going to take a chance and lead him over there. The distance will fit him. He's a big, strong and sound horse, so why not?”

MyRacehorse's juvenile colt Seize the Grey broke his maiden on July 29 over a sloppy and sealed Saratoga main track. The gray son of Arrogate earned a 73 Beyer Speed Figure with a 1 3/4-length triumph over Dornoch – a full-brother to Grade 1 Kentucky Derby winner Mage – and is possible for the Grade 2, $300,000 Hopeful going seven furlongs on September 4.

“That was a tough race. Everyone liked their horse. There were six or seven guys who told me they really liked their horse,” Lukas said. “He's come out of that race strong. I've had three or four Arrogates now and in my experience with them, they seem to get better as they get older. So, I'm counting on him to get a lot better on the First Saturday in May.”

Speaking of Arrogate progeny that blossom on the first week of May, Briland Farm's Kentucky homebred Secret Oath – the winner of last year's Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks – worked five furlongs over the Oklahoma training track Thursday in 1:00.45 in preparation for the Grade 1, $500,000 Personal Ensign on August 25 at Saratoga.

The 4-year-old chestnut filly was a last out uncharacteristic fifth in the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps on June 10 at Belmont Park after completing the exacta in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom on April 15 at Oaklawn Park and the Grade 1 La Troienne on May 5 at Churchill Downs.

“That's one that really thrives up here. I'm so looking forward to the Personal Ensign. I don't think she's ever been this good, frankly,” Lukas said. “She has an affinity for the Oklahoma track. She worked this morning in a minute flat, and she did it without taking a breath. I'm really looking forward to running her.”

Secret Oath is out of the multiple stakes winner and Grade 1-placed Quiet American mare Absinthe Minded. She sports a record of 17-6-4-3 and $2,344,767 in earnings.

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