July, 2023 | Horse Racing Free Tips

West Virginia Derby To Be Run During Evening Time Slot On Sunday, Aug. 6

The signature program of the racing season at Mountaineer Casino, Racetrack & Resort will shift to a Sunday and be run mostly in the evening for 2023.

The last time the $500,000, Grade 3 West Virginia Derby was held at night was 2002, when Wiseman's Ferry won the 1 1/8-mile stakes for 3-year-olds. Since that time, it has been run on Saturday afternoons as the only daytime card of the Mountaineer meet.

This year's race, along with the $200,000, Grade 3 West Virginia Governor's Stakes, a 1 1/16-mile event for 3-year-olds and up, will be held Sunday, Aug. 6, with first post time scheduled for 5 p.m. Eastern. The Derby field is expected to break from the gate at 8:15 p.m.

Jim Colvin, director of racing at Mountaineer, said management decided to avoid going against other racetracks such as Saratoga Race Course on a signal-crowded Saturday afternoon. In addition, Mountaineer regularly races on Sundays—albeit with first post time of 7 p.m.—and Colvin hopes racing in a time spot familiar with Mountaineer bettors produces good results.

Colvin said Mountaineer, which has lights, has some flexibility with post times and would work along with the program from Del Mar Thoroughbred Club, which begins its card at 5 p.m. Eastern.

The Derby and Governor's Stakes attracted a combined 101 nominees. The program will include five open allowance races with the same conditions as the five stakes that previously made up the West Virginia Derby undercard.

Entries for the program will be taken Aug. 1.

Brad Cox, the leading trainer in the United States by earnings with $16.7 million as of July 26, has eight nominated to the West Virginia Derby. Among them are Grade 1 Arkansas Derby winner Angel of Empire and Grade 2 Indiana Derby winner Verifying. Cox is in search of his first West Virginia Derby victory.

Steve Asmussen, who has won five editions of Mountaineer's premier race, has nominated three including Iowa Derby winner How Did He Do That and Red Route One, who was second in a pair of graded stakes on the Triple Crown trail at Oaklawn Park in Arkansas.

The 2022 West Virginia Derby winner, Skippylongstocking, is among the 57 nominated to the Governor's Stakes. Trained by Saffie Joseph Jr., Skippylongstocking would look to follow Zanjero, who won the Derby and Governor's Stakes, respectively, in 2007-08.

Cox, who has won the Governor's Stakes three times since 2014, has nominated four including Warrant, who finished second in the 2021 West Virginia Derby and is a three-time stakes winner.

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Equibase Analysis: Spirit of Makena May Have Slight Edge in Deep Bing Crosby Stakes Field

The Grade 1, $400,000 Bing Crosby Stakes, a “Win & You're In” for the Breeders' Cup Sprint this fall at Santa Anita, drew an extremely talented field of 12 including the 2022 and 2021 winners of this race in American Theorem and Dr. Schivel, respectively. However, both those excellent sprinters enter the race off poor fifth-place finishes with no real excuses.

Leading the group with top efforts in stakes races is Spirit of Makena, who won the Grade 2 Triple Bend Stakes when last seen near the end of May. C Z Rocket, who finished second in the Triple Bend, was third in this race when beaten a neck by Dr. Schivel two years ago. Anarchist is another who has proven to be competitive at this level as he recently finished second in the Grade 2 True North Stakes behind 2022 Breeders' Cup Sprint winner Elite Power. Sibelius ran the best race of his career this spring when taking the Group 1 Dubai Golden Shaheen Stakes but his most recent effort was a fourth-place finish.

The Chosen Vron brings a seven-race win streak into the Bing Crosby, in stakes races restricted to California-bred horses, but his tenacity and drive to win must be respected. Kid Corleone and Hoist the Gold won their most recent starts, at the classified allowance level however they ran poorly just prior to that in graded stakes, with Kid Corleone sixth in the Grade 2 Santa Anita Sprint Championship last fall and with Hoist the Gold finishing eighth in the Grade 1 Metropolitan Handicap.

Chilean-bred Todo Fino stepped into stakes competition for the first time early this month, finishing third in the Grade 3 Smile Sprint Stakes. Get Her Number, who was second behind American Theorem in this race last year, finished sixth when last seen in the Grade 1 Churchill Downs Stakes. Peaceful Waters rounds out the field but must not be dismissed out of hand as he has never finished worse than third in seven career sprint races and won when last seen in April.

Analysis and main contenders:

Historically, winners of the Bing Crosby have run quite well in their most recent starts prior to this race, and that makes sense given the stature of a race that gives the winner an automatic fees-paid entry into the prestigious Breeders' Cup Sprint in the fall – so the race draws horses of exceptional caliber.

Last year's winner, American Theorem, won the Triple Bend Stakes two months earlier and that is precisely why I feel Spirit of Makena is the horse to beat in this year's Bing Crosby as he won the Triple Bend two months ago. If not for a head defeat the only time he ran around two turns, Spirit of Makena would have a perfect five-for-five record and his four-for-four record in sprints like this one gives him an edge. After that two-turn try last summer, Spirit of Makena won in February with a career-best 113 Equibase Speed Figure. He then didn't need to run as fast winning the San Carlos Stakes (103 figure) and Triple Bend Stakes (103) figure in succession.

Jockey Joe Bravo, who guided American Theorem to win this race last year and who has ridden that horse in five straight races, has ridden Spirit of Makena in his last three races, all wins, and rides again. In a race with a likely contested early pace courtesy of need-the-lead types Kid Corleone and Peaceful Waters, with many of the others hot on those pacesetters' heels, Spirit of Makena should get a great trip and win his first Grade 1 race while stamping himself as one of the leading candidates in this year's Breeders' Cup Sprint division.

Dr. Schivel stepped out of California for only the second time in his 12 race career last month, facing 2022 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile winner Cody's Wish, as well as 2022 Kentucky Derby third place finish Zandon, in the Metropolitan Handicap. I'm willing to ignore that effort, not only because of the caliber of the horses he faced and because a mile may be too far, but mostly because some horses just don't like leaving their home environments. That experiment being over, Dr. Schivel returns to his favorite track, Del Mar, where he has earned three of his six career wins including in the 2021 Bing Crosby. Following that, Dr. Schivel earned a career-best 113 figure winning the Santa Anita Sprint Championship before suffering the toughest defeat of his career when beaten a nose by Aloha West in the 2021 Breeders' Cup Sprint.

Away from the races from March of 2022 until this past May, Dr. Schivel picked up where he left off with an extremely strong victory at this six-furlong trip, earning a 109 figure. Then came the Metropolitan Handicap, and I feel if we can ignore that race then Dr. Schivel is going to improve off his only sprint of the year and be a strong factor in this race.

The Chosen Vron may not be considered as strong a contender to win by bettors as some of the others here based on the fact that all of his last seven wins (in a row) have come against California-bred horses only. Don't let that fool you as he's just been raking in money for his owners where he fits. With 12 wins in 16 races, it must be noted The Chosen Vron has stepped out to “open” (not restricted) company five times in his career, with three wins and one second place finish to show for those efforts, including victories in the Lazaro Barrera Stakes and Affirmed Stakes as a 3-year-old.

Having earned 111, 109, and 107 figures in his last three starts, all competitive with the best in this field, The Chosen Vron may really benefit from the contested early pace and fast early fractions in this race, similar to when rallying from fourth to win the Sensational Star Stakes in March and when coming from eighth in the California Flag Stakes last October. Jockey Hector Berrios has been aboard for each one of the horse's last seven wins and rides back so there is a lot to like about the chances for The Chosen Vron posting the mild upset in this race.

Among a number of horses which deserve honorable mention, Anarchist rises to the top because he has finished first or second in seven straight races including two graded stakes. He won the Jacques Cartier Stakes at Woodbine in May with a 115 figure as good as the top runners in this field. Next, although second in the True North Stakes last month in New York, it was big effort as neither he nor any of the other four horses was going to beat last year's Breeders' Cup Sprint winner Elite Power. Nevertheless, Anarchist was clearly second by nearly four lengths over the next horse and earned a 108 figure. Considering he has been so consistent over the last year, I feel Anarchist is a must to use on any exacta tickets we play in this race as he could likely add to his record

The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures in similar races, is American Theorem (115), C Z Rocket (109), Get Her Number (112), Hoist the Gold (101). Kid Corleone (107). Peaceful Waters (103), Sibelius (109) and Todo Fino (103).

Win Contenders:

Spirit of Makena

Dr. Schivel

The Chosen Vron

Bing Crosby Stakes – Grade 1, $400,000

Saturday, July 29 – Race 10 at Del Mar; Post Time 9:30 p.m. ET

Six Furlongs, 3-Year-Olds and Upward

Ellis Starr is national racing analyst for Equibase.

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British Racing Partners With The UK Government For Breeders’ Cup Trade Mission

The British racing industry will partner will the Department for Business and Trade (DBT) at the 2023 Breeders' Cup at Santa Anita in November to deliver a UK government trade mission centred around the horse racing industry.

Great British Racing International (GBRI) will lead the four-day mission in partnership with Ascot Racecourse, The Jockey Club and UK Tote Group. The trade mission represents the first time the British racing industry has collaborated on a large-scale international event with the support of the UK government.

Beginning on Wednesday, Nov. 1, is the Welcome Reception hosted by the UK government and sponsored by Ascot Racecourse and The Jockey Club. The event will allow members of the UK racing industry at the Breeders' Cup the opportunity to meet the trade mission delegation, valued owners and other international investors. The remaining three days of the mission will be a business development programme for trade delegates and the opportunity to see British racing play host in a dedicated hospitality area within Santa Anita Park in California. In addition to the programme, there will also be the second edition of the World Tote Association (WoTA) Forum which will be co-chaired by the UK Tote Group and the ATG on Thursday, Nov. 2.

UK Minister for Exports, Department for Business and Trade, Lord Offord said, “Horse racing makes a hugely important contribution to the UK economy and offers exciting export and investment opportunities, so it is fantastic that we are pioneering the first horse racing trade mission at the Breeders' Cup in November.

“The Breeders' Cup offers us the chance to showcase the UK's expertise on a global stage–and hopefully see more British success on the track.”

Rod Street, Chief Executive of Great British Racing International, added, “This initiative, in partnership with the Department for Business and Trade and key industry stakeholders, will give British Racing a prime opportunity to showcase our world-leading credentials across various disciplines on the world stage. As well as facilitating discussions around UK exports, we will be looking to identify and drive opportunities for investment across our industry.

“We also hope that the event will demonstrate to the wider UK government that there is much to be gained by supporting and working more closely with the industry, in various capacities.

“GBRI has developed a close working relationship with DBT over the last two years and this is an excellent example of what our work in this area has yielded for the industry. We would like to thank the team at DBT for their enthusiasm and support for British racing; Ascot Racecourse and The Jockey Club for their kind sponsorship of the Welcome Reception as well as the Breeders' Cup for their assistance with the race day elements of the programme.”

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The Leading Sires-Of-Sires In Britain And Ireland? The Stats Will Surprise You

Which stallion does the data say is the outstanding sire-of-sires in Britain and Ireland? The answer will surprise you.

We often hear chat about a stallion's ability as a sire-of-sires being bandied about, but it is less common to see it examined in a more detailed and data-driven manner.

First and foremost, my personal opinion is that using a stallion's record as a sire-of-sires is one of the most brutally harsh measures in all of bloodstock on which to judge a horse. In short, the reality is that the vast majority of stallions do not prove to be long-term commercial successes.

Consider this. I recently conducted a study to answer the question of what percentage of Flat stallions are a commercial success in the long run. It included every stallion that commenced their covering careers in Britain and Ireland from 2002 to 2014 inclusive and monitored the fluctuations of their published nomination fee. For the purpose of this study, long-term commercial success for a stallion was defined as standing for the same or a higher nomination fee in their 10th year at stud as they had in their first season.

The study included a total of 186 stallions ranging from those that started from as low as £3,000 all the way up to Frankel who began covering at a fee of £125,000. What percentage of that sample qualified as a long-term commercial success by the above definition? Just 17.7% of them. To hammer it down further, only 8% of them stood their 10th season at double their initial fee or higher. Just 3.8% of them stood at four times or more their initial fee in year 10.

So, for a stallion to do enough to be considered even a reasonably good sire-of-sires is extremely difficult from a statistical perspective. With the very best sires tending to produce the most sons that are given a chance at stud, a top-class sire becoming considered a capable sire-of-sires can be something of a self-fulfilling prophesy. In comparison, even very successful stallions outside of the elite may only get a handful of opportunities for their sons to advertise their father's ability as a sire-of-sires, so the odds are very much stacked against them doing so.

Mind, when one examines the rarified air of stallions that stood for €50,000 or more in Britain and Ireland in 2023 in search of the most notable sires of sires, there is a surprise in store.

Just two stallions are responsible for two or more individual sire sons that feature on this list of the best of the best.

The first is Dubawi through his top-class sire sons New Bay and Night Of Thunder. This won't be a major surprise to anyone given that Dubawi is one of the greatest sires of recent decades. He already has over 50 individual Group/Grade 1 winners to his name and more than 25 of his sons have been given a chance as stallions.

But, who is the other? It must surely be Galileo, Shamardal, Invincible Spirit or some other highly-credentialed star stallion?

No.

It is Acclamation, via his exceptional sire sons Dark Angel and Mehmas.

The pride of Rathbarry Stud has been a wonderful sire for so many breeders since starting his stallion career at a fee of €10,000 in 2004. However, in terms of producing top-class runners, he doesn't have the numbers to compare to the very best sires around. He has had six Group/Grade 1 winners in his career to date, which is a wonderful tally judged against all other stallions, but it is a relatively small number in the context of the very best sires in Europe. For example, Galileo, Dubawi, Shamardal and Invincible Spirit have had over 200 individual Group/Grade 1 winners between them.

The performance of Acclamation's sons on the track has translated to just seven of his sons being given the opportunity to stand at stud in Britain or Ireland over the years. When one looks at them in more detail, the magnitude of what Acclamation has achieved as a sire-of-sires starts to become clear.

Despite just two of his seven sire sons having achieved RPRs of 120 or higher on the track and the seven of them having started their stallion careers at an average nomination fee of around €12,000, this group of sires have punched incredibly well above their weight.

Five of the seven have produced at least one Group 1 winner. Four of them have produced multiple Group 1 winners. Of the two that haven't produced a Group 1 winner, it should be noted that Expert Eye's oldest progeny are just three-year-olds this year so it is still early days for him.

However, the real story of Acclamation as a sires of sires is that his sons Dark Angel and Mehmas have risen to elite status as stallions. They both rank up amongst the very best in Europe as sires of sprinter/milers and are members of the very exclusive club of stallions that have risen to a fee four times or more of their initial fee. Dark Angel has had 14 individual Group/Grade 1 winners as a sire and 10 of his own sons have already been given the chance to stand as sires in Britain and Ireland. Despite Mehmas's oldest progeny only being five-year-olds, he has sired four individual Group/Grade 1 winners and four of his sons are already standing at stud in Britain and Ireland.

All told, it wouldn't be an exaggeration to describe Acclamation's record as a sire-of-sires as being a statistical sensation.

While Acclamation is still going strong at Rathbarry Stud at the age of 24, whether he can produce another stallion son to further enhance his incredible record as a sire-of-sires remains to be seen. If we have already seen the last son of Acclamation retire to stud, Dark Angel and Mehmas are well on their way to continuing his remarkable legacy as a sire-of-sires. What a legacy it is.

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