Mick Appleby Has Molecomb In Mind For Royal Ascot Winner Big Evs 

Mick Appleby is preparing Royal Ascot winner Big Evs (Ire) for a tilt at the G3 Molecomb S. at Goodwood after the Blue Point (Ire) colt confirmed his speed in running out a 20-1 winner of the  Windsor Castle S.

A trip to the Knavesmire at York has also been pencilled in later in the season by Appleby, who revealed that he was not one bit surprised by the colt's performance at the royal meeting last week.

He said, “I did quite fancy him because he worked well with Annaf ((Ire) (Muhaarar {GB}) [King's Stand third] the Saturday before. I was pretty confident he would finish in the first three but I didn't think he would win like that. Obviously he is a very good horse.”

Appleby added, “I had plenty of messages of congratulations afterwards which I was very appreciative of. It is what we do it for and Royal Ascot is where everyone wants to have winners.

“He is more than likely to now go for the Molecomb at Goodwood. I think that is the most obvious target for him and then we will go from there.”

The Nunthorpe could be pencilled in for Big Evs at York but there is also a chance he could step up a furlong and take on the Gimcrack S. instead.

Appleby explained, “We've said we will possibly look at the Nunthorpe afterwards but Goodwood is next on the agenda. We did half think about going for the Gimcrack at York after Goodwood as well.

“Whether he will get six furlongs I don't know, but it didn't look like he was stopping at Ascot. At York I think he probably would get six furlongs, but we will get Goodwood done first then make a decision which route we take after that.

“The owner has had a few offers on the table for him but he is not interested in selling him which is good to see.”

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Air Quality Concerns Cause Midwest Cancellations

Dangerous air quality conditions caused by wildfires in Canada have forced the cancellation of the live racing programs at Hawthorne Race Course in suburban Chicago and at Horseshoe Indianapolis further to the south and east.

“Based on the poor air quality in Indiana today's races have been canceled,” a tweet from the track read. “This decision was made mutually with our horsemen based on the safety of the participants in our racing program coming first. A decision on bringing today's races back will be made shortly.”

Track announcer John Dooley tweeted a graphic from WRTV in Indianapolis indicating that the air quality index (AQI) in the state capitol was a 'very unhealthy' 257 as of 8 a.m. ET Wednesday. Racing is scheduled to return Thursday at 2:10 p.m. ET.

 

 

 

“Safety and consideration for our equine and human athletes always comes first, no matter what the circumstances are,” said Eric Halstrom, Vice President and General Manager of Racing. “We are fortunate to have a great partnership with our racing organizations, and as a group, we decided this decision was the best for everyone involved. We even want to take into consideration the safety of our racing fans who enjoy sitting trackside to watch the horses.”

The AQI as of 7 a.m. ET in Cicero, Illinois, was also in the very unhealthy range at 218, according to Hawthorne's Jim Miller, prompting track officials to take a similar decision. Miller said racing is expected to return Thursday.

Racing at Belterra Park near Cincinnati, at Presque Isle Downs in Erie, Pennyslyvania, and at JACK Thistledown outside of Cleveland was also called off.

Tracks on the eastern seaboard were also forced to cancel racing over the last few weeks, the result of wildfires in Eastern Canada.

 

 

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Bloodlines: Wave Theory And The Story Of Two Phil’s

After a brave and exciting effort to finish second in the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby, Two Phil's (by Hard Spun) made his first appearance since the classic in the G3 Ohio Derby on June 24. After the strong chestnut colt won the race by 5 3/4 lengths in 1:49.60 for the nine furlongs, great things were predicted for the rest of his season.

Unfortunately, the colt came out of the race with an ankle problem, and his season appears to be over, perhaps his racing career. With the prospect of retirement to stud, here's a peek under the hood at the colt's pedigree.

Bred in Kentucky by Phillip Sagan, Two Phil's is by the classic-placed Hard Spun, one of the best stallion sons of the great sire Danzig. Second in the 2007 Kentucky Derby to Street Sense, Hard Spun later won the G1 King's Bishop Stakes at Saratoga and then finished second to Horse of the Year Curlin in the G1 Breeders' Cup Classic.

Retired to stud at Darley's Jonabell Farm outside Lexington, Hard Spun has been a sire success from the start, and he has sired 77 Northern Hemisphere stakes winners from 13 NH crops of racing age (including 2-year-olds of 2023). The big bay has 15 G1 winners around the world; his best in America include champion Questing (Coaching Club American Oaks and Alabama), Silver State (Metropolitan Handicap), Spun to Run (Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile), Wicked Strong (Wood Memorial), and Aloha West (Breeders' Cup Sprint). The latter four all were sent to stud in Kentucky at leading farms.

The first foals by Spun to Run (standing at Gainesway) are yearlings; the first crop by Silver State (Claiborne Farm) are foals of 2023; and Aloha West (Mill Ridge Farm) covered his first book this year.

Two Phil's is out of the multiple stakes winner Mia Torri, a daughter of the Sky Mesa stallion General Quarters. Mia Torri was in the money for nine of her 10 starts, winning the Sunshine Millions Distaff and Sugar Maple Stakes, as well as finishing second in the G3 Bed o' Roses and Charles Town Oaks.

The first foal of his dam, Two Phil's is a three-time winner at the G3 level and placed in G1, G2, and G3 stakes. This makes him the peak of racing quality in the immediate generations of this family, but that's not the whole story.

This is a family that has reached uncommon peaks of excellence in the past, and it is an interesting example of the “wave pattern” of breeding that Abram S. Hewitt wrote about in his columns and then in his book on the great breeders of the late 19th century and mid-20th century.

The great English brewer and breeder Hall Walker and the famed Italian horseman Federico Tesio both “believed in a wave theory of breeding,” Hewitt wrote, that showed both upward and downward momentum. Their policy was to find and breed to families “during the upward momentum phase.”

Both Two Phil's and Mia Torri are part of the upward momentum in this family, which includes the fact that the Ohio Derby winner's third dam is a restricted stakes winner. Earlier in the 20th century, this family had soared in prominence before sinking to disregard.

At the 1925 Saratoga select yearling sale, owner-breeder-trainer-adviser Howard Oots bought a Man o' War filly for James Cox Brady Sr. for $50,500, a record price for a yearling in America at the time. Tracing in the female line to Ornament, a full sister to the unbeaten English Triple Crown winner Ormonde, the daughter of Man o' War came to the sale when the superb racehorse was being recognized as a sire sensation. His first crop, 3-year-olds of 1925, included Belmont Stakes winner American Flag and others. Named War Feathers, the beautiful chestnut filly proved talented in her morning work but nearly useless in the afternoon.

Seemingly overwhelmed by the noise and crowds of the afternoon, the filly had not managed to win a race at 2 or 3 in 1927, when the elder Brady died of pneumonia and his stock was dispersed. Oots bought War Feathers for $20,000 and raced her at four, winning a minor race at Latonia.

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Oots retired the lovely young mare and bred a pair of winners from her, then a trio of stakes winners. Man o' War mares were just about the best producers of the era, and War Feathers was one of the very best among them. Her fifth foal was a handsome brown daughter of Man o' War's contemporary On Watch (Colin), and Oots sold her privately to James Cox Brady the younger. He named his filly War Plumage.

At two, War Plumage imitated her dam by failing to win, but she didn't lack ability. She was second and third in stakes from four starts. The striking dark filly with three white socks debuted at three in the Coaching Club American Oaks. She was the fifth choice in a field of nine and won by a length against a strong field. War Plumage then was second in the Delaware Oaks and bounced back to win the Alabama Stakes at Saratoga. With successes in the two best staying events for fillies, War Plumage was named the co-champion 3-year-old filly of 1939 with Unerring.

The following season, War Plumage won only once, defeating colts in the Washington Park Handicap. This was also one of the richer and most competitive events of the season with a purse of $25,000, and she was named champion of her division again.

This family had peaked in late 19th century and early 20th with Ormonde and with his sister Ornament's best racer, multiple classic winner Sceptre, peaked again with War Feathers and her immediate descendants, and has another classic performer of 2023 with Two Phil's.

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View From The Eighth Pole: Among Trainers Seeking Grade 1 Success, It’s David Vs. Goliath

We are at the halfway point of the racing year, with the Triple Crown in the rear-view mirror and the Breeders' Cup on the horizon.

So far this year, the closest thing we have to an emerging superstar is Cody's Wish, a 5-year-old son of Curlin who has built a six-race winning streak, including two races this year, both of them Grade 1, most recently the Met Mile. Four others have won a pair of North American G1 races in 2023 – Clairiere, In Italian, Pretty Mischievous, and Up to the Mark – but none in the high-profile ranks of 3-year-old colts prepping for and competing in the Triple Crown. There are no three-time G1 winners yet this year.

Among owners, Godolphin has won five of the 35 G1 races run so far this year with three different runners, including the aforementioned Kentucky Oaks winner Pretty Mischievous. And so far this year, there is no one dominant trainer winning at this elite level. Chad Brown, Brad Cox, and Todd Pletcher each have four G1 wins, Cox with four different horses and Brown and Pletcher with three. Bob Baffert and Bill Mott round out the top five with three G1 wins each, Baffert with three horses and Mott with two, including Cody's Wish.

Combined, these five trainers have won 18 of the 35 G1 races (51 percent) run thus far in North America, leaving the 17 other G1 stakes to the hundreds of other trainers playing the role of David to these Goliaths.

There are 62 G1 races yet to be run this year in the United States and another five in Canada. Will we see more of the same, with a handful of trainers dominating these races, or will smaller barns get their share of the pie? I wouldn't bet on the latter.

The wealth inequality among trainers appears to mirror society in general, where the rich are getting richer and the poor are poorer. The current year figures suggest that this gap has widened over the last decade, and why wouldn't it? Success begets success. Those barns have attracted the owners with the deepest pockets and a strategic mission to dominate the game at the highest level.

From 2013 through 2022, the top five trainers by G1 wins (see table below) won 404 of the 1,105 G1 races contested. That's 37 percent of the total. The top 10 won 564 races, or 51 percent. If the current year trend continues, just five trainers will win half of the top-tier races in 2023.

The ascendancy of two trainers in the last decade is particularly noteworthy.

Chad Brown formerly worked for Robert Frankel, who in 2003 set the all-time single-season mark of 25 G1 victories of the 99 run. Brown went out on his own in 2007, won his first career G1 race in 2011 and led all trainers in G1 wins from 2013-'22. He has shrewd owners who are looking at various divisions and are not averse to focusing on fillies and mares or turf racing, unlike some of the other top stables whose business models are driven almost exclusively by potential stallion deals for colts running on dirt.

Brad Cox has been training longer than Brown, having saddled his first runner in 2004. He kicked around the claiming ranks for a decade before winning his first graded stakes in 2014. Two-time champion Monomoy Girl gave Cox his first G1 victory in 2018, and it's been lights out ever since. He won back-t0-back Eclipse Awards as outstanding trainer in 2020 and '21, has gained the confidence and support of some of the world's leading owners, currently sits atop the North American earnings list for 2023, and has a stable loaded with talent.

Both Brown and Cox are just hitting their prime.

The others at the top of the list – all members of the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame – aren't going away any time soon. Bob Baffert, now 70 years old, is the all-time leader with 241 career G1 wins. He continues to excel in the 2- and 3-year-old divisions and has owners who re-stock his shedrow on a regular basis with high-end auction purchases. Todd Pletcher and Steve Asmussen are 1-2 in all-time earnings (both are above $400 million), have massive operations that are well-run, are in their mid-50s and show no signs of slowing down. William Mott, who joins Baffert in the septuagenarian club on July 29, is coming off his best year ever in earnings, and obviously knows what to do when he has a good horse in his care.

If the Davids wants to beat these Goliaths, they'll need more than a sling.

That's my view from the eighth pole.

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