The 155th running of the Grade 1, $1.5 Million Belmont Stakes is an intensely intriguing race because Kentucky Derby winner Mage, who finished third in the Grade 1 Preakness Stakes behind National Treasure three weeks ago, is not running, but Kentucky Derby morning line favorite Forte, who was withdrawn because of a foot bruise, is.
Derby third place finisher Angel of Empire skipped the Preakness with his target being this race, as did Derby fifth place finisher Hit Show and seventh place finisher Tapit Trice. Red Route One attempts to improve off his fourth place Preakness finish, while G3 Peter Pan Stakes winner Arcangelo attempts to earn the Peter Pan – Belmont double as Tonalist did in 2014.
Tapit Shoes is a new face at the top level for 3-year-olds, coming into the Belmont off a head defeat behind Red Route One in the Bath House Row Stakes. Il Miracolo just won an allowance level race four weeks ago but was sixth in both the G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes and G1 Florida Derby, both won by Forte, prior to that.
Analysis and main contender:
Over the last 10 editions of the Belmont Stakes, sons of top sire Tapit have won four times. It appears with two entrants in the race this year, that number may be five by around 7:05 pm on Saturday, June 10. Tapit's bloodline is represented by both Tapit Trice and Tapit Shoes, but it is Tapit Shoes I'm much more interested as he is likely to enter the gate for this year's Belmont Stakes at high odds. This is because he hasn't raced at this level to date, but that is not a reason to ignore his chances for even a second. Last fall Tapit Shoes made his debut in a two-turn race without a sprint race first, likely because trainer Brad Cox knew the colt's greatest chances for success were in longer races. After finishing sixth of 11 in that debut, Tapit Shoes dominated to win by seven lengths a little over four weeks later then finished fourth and third. Although those efforts subsequent to the win did not result in top two finishes, Tapit Shoes ran faster each time, going from an 83 
Equibase® Speed Figure in his maiden win, to 90, then 93. Returning after two months off on April 22, Cox apparently felt confident Tapit Shoes fit with top 3-year-olds, as he was entered in the Bath House Row Stakes against Red Route One, who had finished second in both the Rebel Stakes and Southwest Stakes, and against Victory Formation, who won the Smarty Jones Stakes in January. Tapit Shoes confirmed Cox's opinion in the Bath House Row, as the colt earned a new career-best 102 figure, missing by a head on the finish line after making the lead in the stretch. This colt is a full brother to Cyberknife, who earned more than $2 million and who was second in the 2022 Travers Stakes, and Cox has a Belmont Stakes win under his belt, having saddled Essential Quality to win the race in 2021. On a pattern for a new career-best effort and having superb tactical speed to stalk the pacesetters in third or fourth in the early stages from the ground saving rail, I think Tapit Shoes can post the upset and win this year's Belmont Stakes.
Angel of Empire rallied from 16th in the 18 horse Kentucky Derby field five weeks ago, to 10th with a quarter mile to go, then to third with an eighth of a mile to run, and got within a half-length of Derby runner-up Two Phil's at the end. Sensing he may have been just a bit unfocused in that race, trainer Brad Cox (who also saddles Tapit Shoes and Hit Show) adds blinkers, hoping for the colt to run as well as he did one race before last in the Arkansas Derby, where he made a visually impressive run on the far turn to go from sixth to first as the field entered the stretch. Since that race, Angel of Empire has put in two sparkling morning workouts at Cox's home base in Kentucky, both five furlongs drills in :59.8 seconds which were near the fastest on the day and also faster than either Tapit Shoes or Hit Show, who worked the same distance on the same day. The career-best 106 figure Angel of Empire earned in the Arkansas Derby is tied for the best figure earned by any horse in this field (with Forte) and so if the new equipment (or shorter field) helps, Angel of Empire certainly can run well enough to win.
Tapit Trice won four races in succession until a seventh place effort in the Kentucky Derby where he never got involved but did pass 10 horses to go from 18th to seventh at the end. Prior to that Tapit Trice earned a career-best 103 when winning the Blue Grass Stakes, after losing the lead mid-stretch to Verifying but showing his mental toughness to prevail by a neck at the finish. Trainer Todd Pletcher immediately set the colt's sights on the Belmont after the Derby and Tapit Trice has been in steady training at Belmont for this race, so if he can return to the form shown in December through April, he could have a big say in the outcome.
Red Route One gets honorable mention and in my opinion has to be considered for second or third so could be part of the exacta or trifecta. Red Route One won the Bath House Row Stakes in April, beating Tapit Shoes by a head on the wire. He rallied from eighth of nine in that race and his tendency is to come from far back, which historically is not the style which wins the Belmont Stakes. He earned a 102 figure in the Bath House Row before regressing to a 95 figure in the Preakness, but he is one of few in here which has the pedigree to get this mile and one-half trip (his dam's sire is Tapit) and trainer Steve Asmussen won the 2016 Belmont with Creator, so I think Red Route One could be passing a number of the other entrants in this race for a nice piece of the prize money.
Now, I know many will be wondering why Forte and National Treasure are not win contenders in my opinion. Forte would have been the betting favorite in the Kentucky Derby if not scratched because of a foot bruise, which based on his most recent workouts appear not to be an issue. He has won five races in a row, including the Fountain of Youth Stakes with a career-best 106 figure. Although he hasn't run in a race since winning the Florida Derby on April 1, that isn't a reason for discounting his chances to win because Tiz the Law won the 2020 Belmont after winning the Florida Derby (that was the year the Kentucky Derby was postponed until after the Belmont). The reason I feel Forte isn't as probable to win as Tapit Shoes, Tapit Trice, or Angel of Empire is I don't think Forte has the pedigree to successfully run this mile and one-half distance. So although trainer Todd Pletcher has won the Belmont Stakes three times in the last 10 years, I'm taking a stand against Forte.
As to National Treasure, he won the Preakness leading from start to finish and really slowed the tempo, enabling him to fight off Blazing Sevens in the final yards. As long as Il Miracolo (who is likely to go for the lead from the start) runs in this race, National Treasure is unlikely to have an easy lead, and considering that in his four previous two-turn races prior to the Preakness National Treasure didn't really show any kind of late kick, I feel if he can't have the lead he can't run well enough to win in spite of the competitive 102 figure earned in the Preakness.
The rest of the field, with their best representative Equibase® Speed Figures, is Arcangelo (97), Hit Show (99) and Il Miracolo (84).
Top Win Contenders:
Tapit Shoes
Angel of Empire
Tapit Trice
For use on exacta and trifecta tickets in second and third position:
Red Route One
Belmont Stakes presented by NYRA Bets – Grade 1
Race 12 at Belmont Park
Saturday, June 10 – Post Time 7:02 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Half
Three Years Old
Purse: $1.5 Million
T.V.: FOX 6:30 – 7:30 PM E.T.
The post Equibase Analysis: Tapit Shoes Primed For Upset In Belmont Stakes appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.
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