Plays And Lays: Who Are The Juveniles To Side With And Against At Ascot?

It never ceases to amaze how much debate the two-year-old races at Royal Ascot generate each year. A quick scan on racing Twitter over the past few days confirmed as much. 

For all the fascinating puzzles that the royal meeting will serve up this week, including whether Paddington (GB) (Siyouni {Fr}) can cope with Chaldean (GB) (Frankel {GB}) in the St James's Palace, what will reign supreme in the Prince Of Wales's or if any of the Australian sprinters can land a blow in the King's Stand S., it's the juvenile races that seem to be generating the most chatter.

TDN Europe's Brian Sheerin has taken a look at the main juvenile races to be run at Ascot and tried to decipher who to be on and who to side against this week. 

G2 Coventry S. – Tuesday

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The Coventry features a battle between TDN Rising Stars River Tiber (Ire) (Wootton Bassett {GB}) and Asadna (Ire) (Mehmas {Ire}) and it's hard to argue that the market has not got this one right. 

Favourites have a good record in the Coventry, with five of the past 12 doing the business, and River Tiber does not appear to have many chinks in his armour. 

A 10-length winner on soft ground at Navan on debut, Aidan O'Brien's charge proved just as effective on good ground when carrying a winner's penalty in a conditions event at Naas. 

The form of that race has worked out well since, with the fourth home, Supersonic Man (GB) (Bungle Inthejungle {GB}), now a 16-1 chance for the Windsor Castle after winning nicely at Tipperary last time. 

Wootton Bassett has had a couple of high-class juvenile performers, including Al Riffa (Fr) and Chindit (Ire), and River Tiber has already posted some decent figures. 

It's unoriginal but there's very little not to like about the Ballydoyle colt and he may well prove another winning favourite of the Coventry. 

Lay

Asadna put in one of the most visually impressive two-year-old performances of the season so far when streaking 12 lengths clear of his rivals on debut at Ripon but the case could be made that odds of 7-2 about him in the Coventry look skimpy. 

For all that he was mightily impressive, the form of that race has not worked out, and he obviously hadn't been showing connections that brilliance at home given he was allowed to go off a 4-1 chance on the day. 

Compared to River Tiber, who has gone on and beaten better opposition after his wide-margin debut win, the George Boughey-trained Asadna has not been tested since that emphatic Ripon success. 

Asadna could well be a freak, but River Tiber represents an altogether different test to what he faced on debut and he could be worth taking on at the prices. 

Dark horse

Bucanero Fuerte (GB) (Wootton Bassett {GB}) could be the one who is slipping in under the radar in the Coventry. 

Amo Racing may have had the runner-up in the Derby this year but the modus operandi of the operation has been to unearth classy two-year-olds, and this guy looked just that when winning the opening juvenile maiden of the year in Ireland at the Curragh. 

Not seen since then, Bucanero Fuerte will need to overcome the fact that 11 out of the past 12 Coventry runners had run within a month of Royal Ascot, but fitness shouldn't be a worry given he hails from such a professional operation. 

He's drawn beside the speedy Asadna so should get a good tow into the race. At odds of 16-1, this brother to Wooded (Ire) could represent better each-way value than the Boughey runner. 

G2 Queen Mary S. – Wednesday

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Beautiful Diamond (GB) (Twilight Son {GB}) would appear the one to be on. Karl Burke is operating at a whopping 26% strike-rate with his juveniles this term and he probably doesn't have many more exciting young fillies in his yard than this daughter of Twilight Son. 

Snapped up by Richard Brown of Blandford Bloodstock for £360,000 at the Goffs UK Breeze-Up Sale from Tradewinds Stud, Beautiful Diamond made a perfect start to her career at Nottingham. 

There was a lot to like about the performance given she won by over three lengths going away at the line without having to be asked for maximum effort. 

Hailing from a stable who won this race last year and carrying the yellow and black silks of Sheikh Rashid Dalmook Al Maktoum, which have been synonymous with Royal Ascot winners, it's hard to get away from Beautiful Diamond in the Queen Mary. 

Lay

Like Bright Diamond, Born To Rock (Ire) (Soldier's Call {GB}) was snapped up from breeze-up sales and made an immediate impact when landing a Yarmouth maiden in good style. 

However, the form of the race has not worked out as well as one might have hoped and, given she was installed as a 10-1 chance immediately afterwards, it's hard to be too enthused by the 9-2 on offer. 

Not only have the second and third from that Yarmouth maiden disappointed on their subsequent starts but the fourth home, Mantra (Ire) (Tamayuz {GB}), who was beaten just over five lengths by Born To Rock, was then beaten by over 15 lengths by Beautiful Diamond at Nottingham.

Given Mantra had the advantage of a run under her belt, one would have thought that she ought to be getting closer to Beautiful Diamond than she did. At roughly the same prices, Beautiful Diamond would have to represent the better value. 

Dark horse

Conrad Allen is not a trainer that one would associate with Royal Ascot-winning two-year-olds and, prior to Princess Chizara (Ire) winning on debut at Brighton, the stable was 0-28 with its juveniles in the past five years. 

Admittedly, that is a small sample size, but the point stands that Princess Chizara is clearly one of the smartest juveniles the trainer has got his hands on in a very long time. 

It may only have been a Brighton maiden but there was a lot to like about how Princess Chizara  accounted for a Richard Hannon-trained 2-9 favourite to win by over four lengths at the line. 

The Cotai Glory (GB) filly was clearly well-produced by Stevie Byrne of Knockgraffon Stables at the Tattersalls Guineas Breeze-Up Sale, where she was knocked down to Allen for 65,000gns after recording one of the fastest times. 

What she lacks for in size, Princess Chizara more than makes up for in ability, and she could well out-run her 33-1 odds in what looks a deep race. 

G2 Norfolk S. – Thursday

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Elite Status (GB) (Havana Grey {GB}) looked the real deal when landing a listed contest at Sandown last month and is another high-class juvenile that Karl Burke can look forward to running at the royal meeting. 

Unbeaten in both of his starts to date, Elite Status was described as a 'potential superstar sprinter' by his trainer after Sandown and it was easy to see why given he has such an honest and natural way of galloping. 

Of all the juvenile favourites running this week, Elite Status probably has the most rock-solid credentials, and he looks the one to be on in the Norfolk. 

Lay

In a normal year, American Rascal (Curlin) may well have been expected to go off favourite but the presence of Elite Status in the race means that will be unlikely. 

It's also worth noting that Wesley Ward's runners tend to be over-bet at this meeting, for all that he has enjoyed colossal success down through the years.

American Rascal looked very good when winning on debut at Keeneland but he'll need to be up there with the best of what Ward has targeted at this meeting with to give Elite Status something to think about. 

Dark horse

This is not just about the top two in the betting as Donnacha O'Brien's Devious (GB) (Starspangledbanner {Aus}) needs to be respected. 

He showed natural speed and talent when landing the odds on debut over the minimum trip at Naas where he looked a bona fide Norfolk horse and earned a TDN Rising Star in the process. He's smart.

Others to note

It is interesting that Donnacha O'Brien has secured Frankie Dettori to ride Porta Fortuna (Ire) (Caravaggio) in Friday's G3 Albany S. She looked good when winning a five-furlong Curragh maiden on debut and was even better when winning a Group 3 at Naas over a furlong further last month. She's clearly a filly on the up and could well go off shorter than the 8-1 that is available now. 

There are no entries for Saturday's Chesham S. but, if Pink Satin (GB) turns up, which was reported to be the plan after she won on debut at Windsor, she would have to be respected. There was plenty of each-way support around for Pink Satin at Windsor and she put a well-regarded filly to the sword to win going away by just over a length in the finish. 

She will have a relatively quick turnaround to overcome, given that debut win came just last Monday, but Paul and Oliver Cole didn't appear to be too worried about that in the winner's enclosure at Windsor. 

She looks to be another strapping daughter of Churchill (Ire) and, given it is not too uncommon for fillies to pop up in the Chesham every now and again [Maybe (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}) in 2011 and September (Ire) (Deep Impact {Jpn}) in 2017], she could be one to keep on side. 

 

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The Week in Review: A Belmont Stakes at Saratoga and How to Make it Work

Just a few days after the running of this year's GI Belmont S., the final leg of the Triple Crown was back in the news. With the Belmont grandstand set to be torn down after the 2024 spring meet and with the new stands not expected to be ready until 2026, the 2025 Belmont S. will likely need a home. And after hinting that the race could be run in Saratoga, the New York Racing Association was more specific when the topic was addressed early last week. When asked by the TDN about plans for the race in 2025, NYRA's Vice President of Communications Pat McKenna had this to say: “Should the construction of a new Belmont Park require the Belmont S. to be run at a different venue, then NYRA's preference would absolutely be to hold the event at Saratoga Race Course.”

Why wouldn't it be? Running the race at Belmont amid a massive construction project won't work and neither will running it at Aqueduct. The Big A lost thousands of seats when the casino replaced a large portion of the grandstand and the place isn't, well, very nice.

So, get ready for a Belmont at Saratoga. But there is one major issue that needs to be addressed and that's the distance of the race. Traditionalists will want it to be contested at 1 1/2 miles, but that won't work. Equibase's list of Saratoga track records does not include one for a 1 1/2-mile race, which probably means there has never been a 12-furlong dirt race run there. It's easy to see why. The race would have to start at the three-eighths pole, which is at the entrance to the far turn. Especially if there is a large field, anyone drawing to the outside would be at a disadvantage, something you don't want in any race, let alone a Triple Crown race.

The only answer is to run it at a 1 1/4 miles. Think of it as a necessary adjustment, just like what happened in 2020 when the pandemic played havoc with the Triple Crown schedule and led NYRA to card the Belmont at a one-turn 1 1/8 miles.

As for the schedule, the smartest thing to do would be to start what would normally be the spring Belmont meet at Aqueduct. Belmont week at Saratoga would start on Thursday, June 5, the race would be held on Saturday, June 7 and the four-day mini-meet would end with a card on the following day. The meet could then return to Aqueduct before the regular Saratoga meet got underway.

Combining Saratoga's popularity, the importance of the Belmont S. and the uniqueness of holding the race at the mecca of Thoroughbred racing can only mean that a 2025 Belmont at Saratoga would be a smashing success and one of the most memorable Belmonts of all time.

“A Belmont S. at Saratoga is an event that would capture the attention of the entire sports world while driving tourism and economic impact for upstate New York,” McKenna said.

Doing so would mark for the second time in the modern era that the race was not run at Belmont Park. While the current Belmont grandstand was being constructed, the race was run at Aqueduct from 1963 through 1967. Here's a look at the 1963 Belmont, won by Chateaugay. In 1964, the race was won by Quadrangle.

Aqueduct and Belmont have not been the only homes to the race. While the GI Kentucky Derby has only been run at Churchill Downs and the GI Preakness S. has only been run at Pimlico, the Belmont has had four homes. It was first run in 1867 at Jerome Park, where it remained until moving to Morris Park in 1890. The race was first run at Belmont Park in 1905. Fifty-eight years later, it was moved to Aqueduct.

Thank You, Jena

This industry could not have asked for a better ambassador than Jena Antonucci, a role the trainer was thrust into after winning the Belmont with Arcangelo (Arrogate). Her story was just what a beleaguered sport needed after deaths and breakdowns dominated the news cycles through the first two rounds of the Triple Crown. Even on a day when there was another fatality, in the race run after the Belmont, the mainstream media couldn't get enough of the articulate plucky female trainer with the indefatigable spirit. She was the story Belmont day, and not all the bad news that had been hovering over the game.

Not everyone would have been comfortable with being turned into being a media darling the way she was, but Antonucci embraced it. She could have just gone about her business after the race, but, instead, honored every request from the media, knowing it was an opportunity for someone to convey a positive message about the sport to a large audience. The demands were so intense that she had to call in the NTRA to help her coordinate her schedule. Over a three-day period last week, Antonucci did 12 interviews, including one for Fox News. She was also the Green Group Guest of the Week on last week's TDN Writers' Room podcast.

Now, will the sport pay her back? It's great to have an Arcangelo in the barn, but the fact remains that Antonucci has a relatively small stable that has but one star. Aside from Arcangelo, she's had just one other graded stakes winner during her career. She won the 2016 GIII Turf Monster S. at Parx with Doctor J Dub (Sharp Humor).

How about some of the sport's major owners, ones who have dozens of horses and flock to the super trainers, give her a chance. There are so many trainers out there just like her, ones that are perfectly capable but have problems getting ahead because no one is willing to give them an opportunity. You don't have to have all 100 of your horses with Todd Pletcher, Chad Brown, Bob Baffert, et. al. Isn't there room to give five to Antonucci? She certainly deserves it.

HIWU Versus the Old Way of Doing Things

On June 11, the New York Gaming Commission posted a ruling on its website regarding a positive test for phenylbutazone in a horse trained by Todd Pletcher. Better late than never, I suppose, the alleged offense took place on July 30, 2022 at Saratoga. It was posted 316 days after the race occurred. It was pretty much the same story in the matter of Forte (Violence) testing positive for a banned substance following his win the 2022 GI Hopeful S., run on Sept. 5. That offense was made public on May 11.

How can it possibly take that long for a violation to be reported? Whatever the answer is, and there hasn't been a good one out of the Gaming Commission, it speaks to how dysfunctional the game has been when it comes to violations. It also tells you that there is a glaring lack of transparency.

Thankfully, that has changed. The Horseracing Integrity & Welfare Unit (HIWU), an arm of the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority, took over, in most states, the process of drug testing and handing out penalties on May 22. Already, we are seeing that things are different under this body.

HIWU has posted three rulings on its website under the category of “pending violations.” Two involve the use of Levothyroxine. The third, a ruling against trainer Mario Dominguez, involves the use of cobalt. All of the rulings were posted within three weeks of the alleged offenses. In the case of Dominguez, his horse, Petulant Delight (First Dude), tested positive for cobalt after winning a May 24 race at Parx. Just 15 days later, the violation was made public on the HIWU website.

These people mean business. Good for them.

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Joseph Granted Permission To Race At NYRA Tracks, Allotted Stalls For Saratoga Meet

Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. has received permission to race again at New York Racing Association tracks and has nominated a horse to the $150,000 Wild Applause next Saturday at Belmont, Daily Racing Form reports.

Additionally, Joseph has been granted 23 stalls for the Saratoga meet, which starts July 13.

Following the sudden deaths of two of his horses—Parents Pride and Chasing Artie—at Churchill Downs during the first two days of the track's spring meet, Joseph was ban from racing and stabling at the Louisville track and the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission ordered his entries scratched, including Wood Memorial (G2) winner Lord Miles from the Kentucky Derby (G1), pending an investigation.

While Joseph was never officially prohibited from racing at NYRA tracks, he and NYRA officials agreed he would not race at Belmont until information came to light on two horse deaths at Churchill Downs. Joseph subsequently lost runners to other trainers, including Grade 1 winner White Abarrio, who was transferred to Rick Dutrow.

Earlier this month, the Kentucky commission reported the necropsy performed on Parents Pride was inconclusive and that no prohibited substances were detected. Results on the other horse, Chasing Artie, have yet to be released.

“As a result of productive discussions that have taken place between NYRA and Saffie Joseph Jr., we have reached a point where NYRA is comfortable allowing him to both train and race at NYRA tracks,” NYRA spokesman Pat McKenna told the Form on Saturday.

Joseph's nominee to the Wild Applause for 3-year-old fillies on turf is Michael J. Gibson's Irish-bred Violet Gibson, who in her most recent outing was third in the Honey Ryder Stakes May 6 at Gulfstream Park.

To read the full story at drf.com, click here.

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