Andy Beyer Joins TDN Writers’ Room to Handicap the Kentucky Derby

Andy Beyer, the longtime racing columnist for the Washington Post and the creator of the Beyer Speed Figures that appear in the Daily Racing Form, is never short of opinions, especially when it comes to who will win the GI Kentucky Derby. With the race right around the corner, we asked Beyer to give us his thoughts on the race and share his handicapping acumen on the TDN Writers' Room podcast, which is presented by Keeneland. Beyer was this week's Green Group Guest of the Week.

After some spirited and amusing debate about how to pronounce Forte's name, Beyer said he's no fan of that horse, saying that Forte (Violence) “won't hit the board.”

“I don't like him,” he said. “I don't like him because the name issue grates on me every time I hear it. He is not historically what we look for in the Kentucky Derby, which is a horse on the upgrade coming into the Derby. He clearly doesn't fit that profile. Yes, he is trained by Todd Pletcher. But as we know, Todd's forte is not training horses to win the Derby. His record in this race is two for 62. So I don't think you get any extra credit for being in the Pletcher barn in this race. I want no part of Forte. I don't think he'll hit the board.”

Then who does he like? It's Derma Sotogake (Jpn) (Mind Your Biscuits).

“I am looking for a history making Japanese victory on Saturday night with Derma Sotogake,” Beyer said. “It's not a great Derby. But what makes it really interesting to me is the Japanese presence. And I've been looking a lot at this and I think that Japan is really on the brink of becoming the number one power in world horse racing, eclipsing even Great Britain and the United States. It's going to happen at the present rate eventually. And the coming out party just might be Saturday.”

Beyer said he is so bullish on the Japanese horses that he even gave a long look to longshot Continuar (Jpn) (Drefong).

“I was going to pick Continuar as my 50 to 1 bomber just because he is trained by the top Japanese trainer and was really going to be under the radar,” Beyer said. “But he evidently has not trained that well since he's been at Churchill.”

Based on the Beyer figures, the field for the GI Kentucky Oaks is among the slowest ever. Predictably, Beyer didn't have anything good to say about that race.

“I was so depressed looking at the figures in the Oaks that I just haven't even focused on it yet,” he said. “The idea that nobody in that field has run a figure over 91 is just embarrassing. I've never seen a race this famous look so bad from the speed figure standpoint.”

Elsewhere on the podcast, which is also sponsored by Coolmore,https://lanesend.com/  the Pennsylvania Horse Breeders Association, Kentucky Thoroughbred Owners and Breeders1/st Racing, WinStar Farm, XBTV and https://www.threechimneys.com/ West Point Thoroughbreds, podcast regulars Zoe Cadman, Randy Moss and Bill Finley ran through the entire 20-horse field, giving their opinions on each starter. Finley picked Tapit Trice (Tapit) to win, Moss selected Derma Sotogoake and Cadman gave the nod to Practical Move (Practical Joke). As was the case with Beyer, none were particularly high on Forte.

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Oaklawn’s No. 1 Fan, Betty Henderson, Dies at 98

You probably didn't know Betty Henderson, which is your loss. I did. She was my aunt and she passed away Wednesday at her home in Hot Springs, Arkansas at the age of 98.

I'm writing this not because I lost a beloved aunt and my father's sister, but because, unbeknownst to the sport, the game has lost the type of fan we want all fans to be. If you're reading this, you probably like horse racing. Then there are those like Betty. They don't just like it. It gets so ingrained within some that it becomes a part of their very being. It's their primary focus, their greatest pleasure and it makes their lives demonstrably better. With its myriad problems, racing can turn most of us into cynics. But not the Aunt Bettys of the world. They find so much joy in the sport that their view is forever through rose-colored glasses. Good for them.

She was born in 1925 in Missouri and had a tough life growing up, as her father lost his job during the Great Depression and the family became sharecroppers in order to survive. She worked alongside her parents and siblings picking cotton in the fields when she was just a child. It was not until she was in her thirties that she discovered horse racing, but it became one of the great passions of her life.

Until her health started to fail her a year or so ago, she was the happiest, liveliest nonagenarian you could ever hope to meet, and she would tell you, if you asked, that the reason was horse racing. Especially racing at her home track, Oaklawn Park. It's no exaggeration to say that it became the most important thing in her world and I have no doubt she never would have lived as long as she did without racing and the way it stimulated her life.

“Now that I am back to feeling good I am looking forward to the big races,” she told me in a 2015 email, then a spry 90-year-old. “Love every minute I spend working on the PP's. Besides, it keeps my brain going and, believe me, when you get old you need something interesting to do and I can't think of anything as good as horse racing. Hot Springs is a wonderful racing town and I am so glad I live here.”

In 2013, she couldn't resist bragging about a winning streak she went on.

“Out of the 12 races yesterday, I cashed in on nine of them,” she wrote in another email. “Didn't have information from anyone, just worked off my Brisnet and my own knowledge. I sure did need that boost as for the past month I had been losing. So I had a day to remember. I thought my tired, old, almost 90-year-old brain was letting me down. Now I know I have a few cells left.”

It might have been different if she just played her favorite numbers, the hot jockey or some hunch plays. But that was never her. She couldn't understand why some of her friends at the track never bothered to learn more about the fascinating riddle to be solved that was handicapping. She'd bet $2 a race, maybe $5 if she had a good opinion on a horse, and that was only after she studied the past performances and her Brisnet data for hours. She always thought the best way to promote racing was to teach people how to handicap and how to bet, a theory she put fourth in an interview in the TDN in 2020.

Henderson at Saratoga in 1989 with her brother, Joe Finley. Finley was a labor lawyer who wrote handicapping books under the pen name William L. Scott | Lucinda Finley photo

“I feel that the tracks should have a one-hour teaching program every day, advertise it and really teach the population to handicap,” she said in the story. “I was so fortunate to have the best-ever teacher, my brother Joe Finley, who wrote the popular handicapping book How Will Your Horse Run Today? and others under the pen name of William L. Scott. I now have enjoyed handicapping races for 50 years and hope to enjoy it for a few more.”

While she was serious about her gambling, she was also at Oaklawn to socialize. As she got older, she would go to the track less often and always avoided the biggest days, like GI Arkansas Derby Day, because the track was too crowded. But on most Saturdays, she would be there, always perched at her regular table in the Post Parade restaurant on the first floor of the grandstand.

She commanded the room like no one else.

“She was one of our regulars,” said Karie Hobby, Oaklawn's manager of food and beverage operations. “She had a love for the game and she knew every racetrack and every horse. She was just so engaging. It was hard not to know her. She was definitely loved. When Miss Betty would come in the restaurant, it was like the world stopped a little bit. Everybody had to say hello to her and she knew everyone's name. She was just so caring and considerate. She fell in love with Oaklawn Park. She touched way more people here than you could ever imagine.”

I sent Betty a couple of emails around the opening day of the 2022-2023 Oaklawn meet, wishing her well and hoping that she'd have a winning meet at the windows. When she didn't answer I knew something had to be wrong. She had had some pulmonary issues, had lost a great deal of weight and, as it turned out, was too frail to make it to the track or to correspond with her nephew.
“From the beginning of the meet, she wasn't there at her regular table,” Hobby said. “We started reaching out and were told her health was not so good but she would come if she ever felt up to it.

Everyone in the restaurant started looking around and asking, 'Where's Betty…Where's Betty?'”

Hobby doesn't believe she made it to the races even once during the meet, which tells you how sick she must have been.

This is what she had to say in the last email I ever received from her: “I just know I will attend the races this coming Saturday and enjoy every minute of it!!!!” she wrote.

Win or lose, I'm sure she did. She wasn't rich or famous. She never owned or trained a horse. I imagine that on the best day she ever had at the windows she probably won a couple hundred dollars or so. But there's never been anyone that got more out of horse racing than Betty Henderson. Racing was lucky to have her, but she was even luckier to have racing.

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Betfred To Sponsor The St Leger Festival

Betfred will sponsor the Betfred St Leger Festival after a multi-year partnership was reached between Betfred, Doncaster Racecourse, and the Arena Racing Company (ARC).

Running from Sept. 14-17 in the autumn, the four-day festival will feature the final UK colts' Classic of the year–the G1 Betfred St Leger–as well as the G2 Betfred May Hill S., G2 Doncaster Cup, G2 Champagne S., and G2 Park S. Doncaster was granted city status as part of Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth's Platinum Jubilee celebrations in 2022 which will be commemorated with the renamed Betfred City of Doncaster H., run on the final day of the four-day meeting.

Betfred boss Fred Done, said, “To have the Betfred name attached to the St Leger Festival is not just a sponsorship but a privilege. I am proud to be associated with the world's oldest Classic which is obviously synonymous with great horses like Triple Crown winner Nijinsky, Dunfermline for The Queen and Oh So Sharp for Sir Henry Cecil.”

Arena Racing Company Chief Executive, Martin Cruddace, said, “We are absolutely delighted to welcome Betfred as the headline sponsors of the St Leger Festival and of the Betfred St Leger itself.

“Fred Done and his team have long been keen supporters of British racing, and the inclusion of this historic race meeting into their sponsorship portfolio is another indication of their commitment to the sport. The whole sport is extremely fortunate to benefit from working in partnership with Fred and his team and we very much look forward to a fantastic Betfred St Leger Festival in September.”

Betfred is also the new sponsor of the G1 Betfred Derby and G1 Betfred Oaks in June.

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Freshman Sire Advertise Off The Mark At Salisbury

Manton Park Stud resident Advertise (GB) (Showcasing {GB}) became Europe's latest first-crop sire to get off the mark when the Ralph Beckett-trained Matters Most (GB) prevailed in Thursday's £10,000 Byerley Stud British EBF Novice S. over five furlongs at Salisbury.

Originally sold for 135,000gns as a foal, the colt was knocked down at 500,000gns at Tattersalls October Book 1 to Richard Knight on behalf of Saleh Al Homaizi and was one of 17 horses later reoffered privately through Tattersalls when payment for the yearlings was not forthcoming.

Mick Kinane stepped in to buy Matters Most on behalf of Robert Ng after the colt had been broken in at Vicarage Farm by jockey Adam Kirby and his partner Megan Evans.

“Obviously a lot of people liked him at the sale and after what happened there was the possibility to try to negotiate something,” explained Rupert Pritchard-Gordon, racing manager to the Hong Kong-based Ng.

“Adam did a really nice job with the horse and was really happy with him. He just seems to be very mature and very professional. Ralph has always liked him. He is a big, imposing colt with a nice attitude.”

He continued, “Mick Kinane rode for Robert Ng and when Mick bought [multiple Group 1 winner] Romantic Warrior, Robert said, 'If Mick could find me something nice I'd really appreciate it'.

“As a general rule, Mr Ng doesn't buy a lot of yearlings, he usually likes to have seen them race. But he was very keen to renew the link with Mick and on this occasion it just seemed the right thing to do. Mick got on to Tatts, and Mr Ng was able to negotiate a settlement with them.”

With two starts and a win for Matters Most, naturally thoughts turn to Royal Ascot, but Pritchard-Gordon advised that the colt's programme will be very much set by his trainer. 

“We'll see what Ralph wants to do with him next,” he said. “Robert Ng is very patient and he's not someone who would put any pressure on a trainer to go somewhere in particular. If Ralph wants to go to Ascot he can go, and if Ralph wants to do something else, Mr Ng wouldn't argue.”

Pritchard-Gordon added, “When Mr Ng bought him, the original idea was that he was going to go to Hong Kong and then he decided to leave him in Europe for the time being. He's a mature and likeable youngster and, with that pedigree, you hope he's a horse you can get straight on with.”

1st-Salisbury, £10,000, Nov, 5-4, 2yo, 5fT, 1:03.20, g/s.
MATTERS MOST (GB) (c, 2, Advertise {GB}–Squash {GB} {MGSP-Eng}, by Pastoral Pursuits {GB}) shaped with promise when third on debut over this trip at Newbury last month and he escaped the early skirmishes to stalk the pace in a close-up second here. Launching his bid passing the quarter-mile marker, the 6-5 favourite inched ahead entering the final furlong and kept on strongly from there to account for Liv My Life (Ire) (Awtaad {Ire}) by a 1 1/4 lengths, becoming the first winner for his freshman sire (by Showcasing {GB}). Matters Most is the third foal and scorer produced by G3 Nell Gwyn S. runner-up and G3 Chartwell Fillies' S. third Squash (GB) (Pastoral Pursuits {GB}). He is a half-brother to GIII San Simoen S. victor Motorious (GB) (Muhaarar {GB}) and a yearling colt by Sergei Prokofiev.

135,000gns Wlg '21 TATFOA; 500,000gns Ylg '22 TATOCT. Lifetime Record: 2-1-0-1, $8,363.
O-Robert Ng; B-Kirtlington Stud & Mrs Mary Taylor (GB); T-Ralph Beckett.

 

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