May, 2023 | Horse Racing Free Tips

Background Check: Kentucky Oaks

In this continuing series, we examine the past winners of significant filly/mare races by the lasting influence they've had on the breed. Up today is the GI Kentucky Oaks, second only in stature at Churchill Downs to the GI Kentucky Derby.

The Derby isn't alone as the oldest continuously held major sporting event in the U.S. The Oaks is right there with it, having been held every year, without interruption for wars or pandemics, since racing first began at Churchill in 1875 when the Louisville oval was known as the Louisville Jockey Club. Although the 'Lilies for the Fillies' is somewhat of a prelude to the big event in the public consciousness, it's also a special Classic all on its own. Whether it was Silverbulletday's popular win as the shortest-priced favorite in Oaks history or Rachel Alexandra's 20 1/4-length tour de force or D. Wayne Lukas's record-tying fifth Oaks score last year with Secret Oath, the race has provided so many wonderful moments.

With 149 Kentucky Oaks winners (including two victresses from a 1959 split division), following are highlights of some of the most important by what impact they've had on the sport through their sons and daughters.

Lemons Forever (2003, Lemon Drop Kid–Critikola {Arg}, by Tough Critic), bred by Farfellow Farms Ltd.: The only Kentucky Oaks winner to be officially honored as Broodmare of the Year, she produced champion Forever Unbridled (Unbridled's Song) and additional GISW Unbridled Forever (Unbridled's Song). Her daughters are young and she still has a few more in the pipeline herself, so more could be in her future.

2006 winner Lemons Forever is the only Oaks winner
to be named a Broodmare of the Year | Horsephotos

Seaside Attraction (1987, Seattle Slew–Kamar, by Key to the Mint), bred by Hermitage Farm, Inc., A. G. Clay, and Robert N. Clay: She only had five foals, but four of them were graded winners, including champion Golden Attraction (Mr. Prospector) and GISW Cape Town (Seeking the Gold). Both of her daughters are dams of two or more stakes winners apiece, with French champion Desert Lord (GB) (Green Desert) among their offspring.

Blush With Pride (1979, Blushing Groom {Fr}–Best in Show, by Traffic Judge), bred by Mr. & Mrs. Darrell Brown: Broodmare of the Year Better Than Honour (Deputy Minister), dam of GI Belmont S. winners Rags to Riches (A.P. Indy) (also a champion and Kentucky Oaks winner) and Jazil (Seeking the Gold), is one of her daughters. Other top runners tracing to her to date are European champion Peeping Fawn (Danehill) and GISWs Thewayyouare (Kingmambo), Streaming (Smart Strike), and Paris Lights (Curlin).

Hidden Talent (1956, Dark Star–Dangerous Dame {GB}, by Nasrullah {GB}), bred by Harry F. Guggenheim: Dam of Broodmare of the Year Too Bald (Bald Eagle), her descendants include U.S. champion Capote (Seattle Slew), Canadian champion Lake Country (Caucasus), plus MGISWs Exceller (Vaguely Noble {Ire}) and Broad Brush (Ack Ack).

Lalun (1952, Djeddah {Fr}–Be Faithful, by Bimelech), bred by H. F. Guggenheim: Her two top sons were champion Never Bend (Nasrullah {GB}) and Travers winner Bold Reason (Hail to Reason). Both hit the board in the Kentucky Derby and both had significant influence on the breed.

Real Delight (1949, Bull Lea–Blue Delight, by Blue Larkspur), bred by Calumet Farm: This mare produced three black-type winners, but it's the next generations through her daughters that will keep her in pedigrees. Among the legions of top-class horses descending from her are Hall of Famer and leading sire Alydar (Raise a Native), Broodmare of the Year Sweet Tooth (On-and-On), champions Our Mims (Herbager {Fr}) and Christmas Past (Grey Dawn II {Fr}), and GISWs Sugar and Spice (Key to the Mint), Codex (Arts and Letters), and Grand Slam (Gone West).

How (1948, Princequillo {GB}–The Squaw II {Fr}, by Sickle {GB}), bred by D. Djordjadze: She is the dam of Broodmare of the Year Pocahontas (Roman), whose five stakes winners included champion and excellent sire Tom Rolfe (Ribot {GB}), as well as good sire Chieftain (Bold Ruler) and the dam of outstanding European sire Alzao (Lyphard).

Nellie L. (1940, Blenheim II {GB}–Nellie Flag, by American Flag), bred by Calumet Farm: Among the Grade I winners of the last 50 years tracing to this 1943 Oaks winner are champion and Kentucky Derby winner Bold Forbes (Irish Castle), who was her grandson, and Life At the Top (Seattle Slew), Saratoga Six (Alydar), Lakeway (Seattle Slew), Jilbab (A.P. Indy), and England's Dunbeath (Grey Dawn II {Fr}).

Miss Dogwood (1939, Bull Dog {Fr}–Myrtlewood, by Blue Larkspur), bred by Brownell Combs: Breed-shaping sire Mr. Prospector (Raise a Native) is a grandson of her daughter Sequence (Count Fleet), who is also the ancestress of GISWs Sewickley (Star de Naskra), Shared Interest (Pleasant Colony), Forestry (Storm Cat), and Cash Run (Seeking the Gold), as well as Canadian Broodmare of the Year Amelia Bearhart (Bold Hour) and her dual Canadian Horse of the Year son Chief Bearhart (Chief's Crown), who was also a U.S. champion.

Breed-shaping sire Mr. Prospector traced to 1942 Oaks winner
Miss Dogwood | Dell Hancock

Two Bob (1933, The Porter–Blessings, by Chicle {Fr}), bred by C. V. Whitney: What a mare. Her Hall of Fame daughter Two Lea (Bull Lea) produced Hall of Famer and 1958 Kentucky Derby winner Tim Tam (Tom Fool), as well as seven-time black-type winner and sire On-and-On. Another daughter founded the Chris Evert (Swoon's Son) line, the latter being a Hall of Famer whose descendants include champion Chief's Crown (Danzig), MGISWs Sightseek (Distant View) and Tates Creek (Rahy), and so many more top horses. Derby winning filly Winning Colors (Caro {Ire}) also is a direct descendant of Two Bob, as is solid sire Best Turn (Turn-to {Ire}), and a slew of other high-caliber horses.

Fiji (1931, Bostonian–O Girl, by Ormondale), bred by Jack S. Young and Tom B. Young: A daughter produced 1953 Kentucky Derby winner Dark Star, the only horse to defeat Native Dancer, and a granddaughter produced 1964 Kentucky Oaks winner Blue Norther.

Alcibiades (1927, Supremus–Regal Roman {GB}, by Roi Herode {Fr}), bred by Hal Price Headley: Four of her eight foals were black-type winners, including champion and influential sire Menow (Pharamond II {GB}). European champion and another influential sire in Sir Ivor (Sir Gaylord) descended from an Alabama-winning daughter, while a slew of other high-class stakes winners trace to her.

Black Maria (1923, Black Toney–Bird Loose {Fr}, by Sardanapale {Fr}), bred by Himyar Stud or Colonel E. R. Bradley (conflicting accounts): She had only one foal, but one was all she needed. Her descendants include Preakness winner and excellent sire Polynesian, of course responsible for Native Dancer.

Audience (1901, Sir Dixon–Sallie McClelland, by Hindoo), bred by Mrs. Byron McClelland): Among her foals were Whisk Broom II (Broomstick), an eventual Hall of Famer who won major races in both the U.S. and England before becoming a top sire, and Matinee, a blue hen for the Whitneys whose descendants include Hall of Famer Top Flight (Dis Donc {Fr}).

Modesty (1881, War Dance–Ballet, by Planet), bred by George H. Clay: A number of stakes winners trace to this grand chestnut, most notably Regret (Broomstick), the first female winner of the Kentucky Derby in 1915. The GIII Modesty S., to be run on the Oaks undercard after moving to Churchill from Arlington, is named after her.

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Economic Indicators: Wagering Down, Purses Continue To Rise Through April

Equibase, North American racing's official database, has released its April statistics for the industry's economic indicators, including field size, wagering, and other data. With a several full cards of racing cancelled at Laurel Park due to track surface concerns, and a pair of cards cancelled at Gulfstream Park due to severe rain and flooding, there were a few significant changes this month.

April's metrics show a 2.97 percent decline in total wagering on U.S. races, a sharp drop compared to last month's 2.14 percent increase from March of 2022 to March of 2023.

With declines of 5.21 percent and 7.19 percent in February and January, respectively, that translates to a year-to-date wagering decline of 3.28 percent through the first four months of 2023. That's a slight improvement over the first three months of the year, which showed a 3.40 decline in total wagering.

Despite a 2.91 percent decline in purses from April of 2022 to April of 2023, the year-to-date purses distributed remains strong with a 5.25 percent increase.

Both the number of race days and races held showed decreases in April, leading to a year-to-date average daily wagering figure that declined 3.37 percent. That's an improved figure over the first three months of the year, which showed average daily wagering down 5.16 percent.

Equibase is continuing to provide monthly reporting of its Economic Indicators Advisories as a service to the industry and in consideration of the economic changes resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. The Advisory is typically disseminated on a quarterly basis to provide key metrics used to measure racing's performance throughout the year.

April 2023 vs. April 2022
Indicator	April 2023	April 2022	% Change
Wagering on U.S. Races*	$1,046,596,328	$1,078,648,120	-2.97%
U.S. Purses	$100,489,691	$103,500,621	-2.91%
U.S. Race Days	281	295	-4.75%
U.S. Races	2,350	2,498	-5.92%
U.S. Starts	17,651	18,321	-3.66%
Average Field Size	7.51	7.33	+2.41%
Average Wagering Per Race Day	$3,724,542	$3,656,434	+1.86%
Average Purses Per Race Day	$357,615	$350,850	+1.93%

YTD 2023 vs. YTD 2022
Indicator	YTD 2023	YTD 2022	% Change
Wagering on U.S. Races*	$3,746,822,848	$3,873,828,528	-3.28%
U.S. Purses	$366,523,340	$348,252,959	+5.25%
U.S. Race Days	1,103	1,102	+0.09%
U.S. Races	9,327	9,266	+0.66%
U.S. Starts	70,630	69,467	+1.67%
Average Field Size	7.57	7.50	+1.01%
Average Wagering Per Race Day	$3,396,938	$3,515,271	-3.37%
Average Purses Per Race Day	$332,297	$316,019	+5.15%

* Includes worldwide commingled wagering on U.S. races.

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Breeders’ Cup Presents Connections: A Kentucky Derby ‘Cinderella Story’

The presence of Two Phil's in this year's Kentucky Derby has all the makings of a Disney movie: he's the horse nobody wanted who makes it all the way to the pinnacle of the sport.

Anthony Sagan, breeder and a co-owner along with his father, Phil Sagan (one of the two Phils), knows just how rare an opportunity they have been granted. The colt is not only the first Thoroughbred the family bred; his dam is also the first Thoroughbred the Sagan family ever owned.

“There are people that have been breeding for 50 years, thousands of horses, and there's people spending millions and millions, and here we are with one horse,” Sagan said earlier this week on the Kentucky HBPA YouTube channel. “It just shows you that anything's possible in this game.”

Sagan grew up enjoying several aspects of the racing industry: at first, greyhound racing, and later harness racing.

“I've been going to the track since I was a kid,” he said. “My parents took me to the Palm Beach Kennel Club and I was like 11 years old. I remember going to the Greyhounds and I loved it, and then after that I started going to Maywood Park and going to the harness tracks.”

The Sagans owned a few harness racehorses, enjoying racetrack outings as a “family hobby” but not especially serious. When the Chicago-area Maywood Park shut down in 2015, a family friend suggested the Sagans try their hand at Thoroughbreds.

Former jockey Jerry La Sala, winner of over 1,200 races and whose father is the second “Phil,” Phillip La Sala, offered up the unraced 3-year-old Mia Torri for sale. At $40,000, the Sagans bought the Florida-bred filly sight unseen.

It turned out the daughter of General Quarters could run a little: she won a pair of stakes races, was twice graded stakes-placed, and earned $314,720 on the track. When Mia Torri was injured, the Sagans opted to breed her.

La Sala recommended the Sagans speak with Steve Leving, a jockey agent, bloodstock agent, and even racing official. Leving recommended a mating with Hard Spun.

Two Phil's was the outcome of that initial mating. The Sagans attempted to sell the chestnut colt twice: he did not reach his reserve when bidding stopped at $150,000 at the Keeneland September sale, and he was withdrawn from a 2-year-old in training sale after working an eighth of a mile in :10 ⅖.

“The first horse that we ever had was a horse that no one really wanted, and then this horse, same thing, nobody wanted him either,” Sagan said. “He was overlooked by all the experts in the game, and you heard every excuse about why he couldn't do this, why he couldn't do that. I mean, now we're here at the biggest stage in racing.”

The colt's much-discussed name is the result of a friendship between Phillip Sagan and Phil La Sala, both in their 80s and planning to attend Saturday's race at Churchill Downs.

“Everyone's asking about the apostrophe with Two Phil's,” Sagan said, laughing. “When my dad submitted it to The Jockey Club, I guess this is how he did it. I think it gives him a little style, a little pizzazz to his name, and it gives people something to talk about. That little apostrophe is not supposed to be there, but we're not grammar experts so we submitted it the way it is and I like the way it looks on paper.”

Two Phil's is trained by Chicago-based Larry Rivelli, who recommended his primary owner Vince Foglia (Patricia's Hope LLC) purchase a share in the colt during his early training. Foglia now owns 80 percent, with the Sagans staying in for 10 percent and the Sol Kumin partnership, Madaket Stables, picking up the other 10 percent.

Despite making his last start over the synthetic surface at Turfway Park, dominating the G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks to earn his way into the Kentucky Derby, Two Phil's isn't without good dirt form.

In fact, the colt already owns a win over the surface at Churchill Downs, last fall's G3 Street Sense Stakes, and he ran second and third, respectively, in the Fair Grounds' G3 Lecomte and G2 Risen Star.

“If he runs his last race he's going to have a huge chance,” Rivelli said. “A lot of people think it's the Tapeta that moved him up (winning the Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park), and it could be. If it wasn't, he's got a serious shot. It's a deep and even year this year. There's no Justify, no American Pharoah, which gives us a shot.”

The Sagans now have two additional foals out of Mia Torri, a 2-year-old Omaha Beach colt and a 2023 foal by McKinzie.

“We took a shot with one Thoroughbred and now we're in the biggest stage in racing,” Sagan said. “It's an incredible Cinderella story that we're in this race.”

Two Phil's schooling in the paddock ahead of the 2023 Kentucky Derby

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Cracksman Colt Passes Jockey Club Test At Chantilly

Handed his chance at black-type after impressive wins over 10 furlongs at Cagnes-sur-Mer in January and over 9 1/2 furlongs at Bordeaux-le-Bouscat last month, Ecuries Serge Stempniak's Ace Impact (Ire) (Cracksman {GB}–Absolutly Me {Fr}, by Anabaa Blue {Ire}) showed his Classic hand in Thursday's 10-furlong Listed Prix de Suresnes at Chantilly. Again exhibiting early keenness as Cristian Demuro sought cover towards the rear, the G1 Prix du Jockey Club and G1 Grand Prix de Paris entry was far from compromised by that initial expenditure of energy as he swamped the leaders approaching the furlong pole and galloped to the line with relish to win comfortably by 1 3/4 lengths from Maniatic (Ire) (Intello {Ger}).

Trainer Jean-Claude Rouget has no doubt where the winner is heading. “This horse has everything it takes to make a good one,” he stated. “We went step-by-step with him with this race in mind as a final prep for the Prix du Jockey Club. These races are important, because if you lose and show nothing you lose your illusions. He quickened brilliantly and now we have to try to finish the job. We will be back at Chantilly on the first Sunday in June.”

The dual listed-placed dam, who has produced two other listed-placed performers in Apollo Flight (Fr) (Rock Of Gibraltar {Ire}) and Alessandro (Fr) (Australia {GB}), also has the 2-year-old colt Arrow Eagle (Fr) by Gleneagles (Ire). Her family includes the top-class British-trained stalwarts Teleprompter (GB), Ibn Bey (GB) and Roseate Tern (GB) and the talented Red Camellia (GB) (Polar Falcon), who took the G3 Prestige S. and was third in the G1 Poule d'Essai des Pouliches before producing the G1 Fillies' Mile heroine Red Bloom (GB) (Selkirk).

PRIX DE SURESNES-Listed, €55,000, Chantilly, 5-4, 3yo, 10fT, 2:03.72, g/s.
1–ACE IMPACT (IRE), 128, c, 3, by Cracksman (GB)
1st Dam: Absolutly Me (Fr) (SP-Fr & Ger), by Anabaa Blue (Ire)
2nd Dam: Tadawul, by Diesis (GB)
3rd Dam: Barakat (GB), by Bustino (GB)
1ST BLACK-TYPE WIN. (€75,000 Ylg '21 ARQAUG). O-Ecuries Serge Stempniak; B-Mme W Spanner (IRE); T-Jean-Claude Rouget; J-Cristian Demuro. €27,500. Lifetime Record: 3-3-0-0, €55,000.
2–Maniatic (Ire), 128, c, 3, Intello (Ger)–Hallucinante (GB), by Dubawi (Ire).
1ST BLACK TYPE. O/B-Wertheimer et Frere (IRE); T-Andre Fabre. €11,000.
3–Don Diego De Vega (Fr), 128, c, 3, Lope De Vega (Ire)–Fairly Fair (Fr), by Sinndar (Ire).
1ST BLACK TYPE. (€90,000 Ylg '21 ARQOCT). O-Alexandre Foulon, Ecurie Vivaldi Et Al; B-Ecurie des Monceaux, Langlais Bloodstock Et Al (FR); T-Stephane Wattel. €8,250.
Margins: 1 3/4, 1 1/4, 2. Odds: 1.40, 6.00, 3.40.
Also Ran: Prince De Paname (Fr), Swing Vote (GB), Regheeb (Ire), Rising Blast (Fr), Al Mundher (Fr). Video, sponsored by TVG.

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