Monmouth Park’s race meet is off and running, and its action-packed tournament season is already in full stride. Take one look at the National Horseplayers Championship [NHC] tournament schedule for 2023 and one thing immediately becomes apparent: Monmouth Park has become the national leader in on-track handicapping contests and the leading racetrack in terms of sending handicappers to the NHC finals in Las Vegas.
Month: May 2023
National Treasure on Track for Belmont
National Treasure (Quality Road) turned in his first work since winning the May 20 GI Preakness S., going four furlongs in :50.62 (9/15) at Belmont Park Tuesday as he continues preparations for the June 10 GI Belmont S.
With jockey John Velazquez up for trainer Bob Baffert, National Treasure was caught by New York Racing Association clockers in a swift opening split of :23 2/5. Velazquez had the colt under a hold down the lane before letting the talented bay gallop out strongly.
“I wanted to jog him to the mile pole and start him galloping nice and easy. He got pretty strong on the bridle, so I kept him on the outside and Bob told me when I get to the four and a half, just drop him in and try to go :49,” Velazquez said. “He picked it up pretty quick. I slowed him down as best I could and down the lane I just held him together. Going past the sixteenth pole, I gave him his head and let him gallop out.”
It's a beautiful day for a breeze! @PreaknessStakes winner NATIONAL TREASURE breezed a half mile on the main track at #BelmontPark this morning under hall of fame jockey @ljlmvel in preparation for the Belmont Stakes, presented by @NYRABets! pic.twitter.com/MHCnUcsNHq
— Belmont Stakes (@BelmontStakes) May 30, 2023
Velazquez, who won the Belmont with Rags to Riches in 2007 and with Union Rags in 2012, said that he expects National Treasure should be able to handle the stretch out to 12 furlongs in the Belmont S.
“After the races, he always gallops out really strong. I just hope that he can put it together,” Velazquez said. “The whole thing with him is he gets a little spotty. We put blinkers on him and he's been pretty good with them. Hopefully, he stays like that.”
Tom Ryan, managing partner of co-owner SF Racing, was on hand to watch the breeze and said Velazquez was pleased with the work.
“He said he was getting over the track very well, which is most important,” Ryan said. “He said that it's good to get a horse acclimated to the track.”
On the board in five of six starts to date, National Treasure was second in the GI American Pharoah S. and third in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile last year. His six starts have come at four different racetracks, providing him with a solid education, according to Ryan.
“He went from Del Mar to Santa Anita to Keeneland and back,” Ryan said. “He got that early education we wanted him to get of getting on the plane and going to Kentucky with a big crowd. He's experienced that now on a number of days on Breeders' Cup to Preakness to this.”
National Treasure was purchased by the stallion-making partnership of SF Racing, Starlight Racing, and Madaket Stables for $500,000 at the 2021 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga sale and his ownership line also includes Robert Masterson, Stonestreet Stables, Jay Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital and Catherine Donovan.
Asked what a Belmont win would mean for National Treasure's future value as a stallion, Ryan said, “I think it's very important. A race like the Belmont is very important when pairing it with a race like the Preakness. I think a standalone Belmont definitely has value on a resume, but when you put two Classics on your resume, it's pretty hard to top isn't it?”
Also Tuesday, Ryan confirmed the same ownership group's Reincarnate (Good Magic) will skip the Belmont and will be aimed at the GI Travers S. at Saratoga Aug. 26. The gray colt was most recently 13th in the GI Kentucky Derby.
“He'll redirect to the Travers. It'll fit him well and will give him some time to fill up again out of the Derby,” said Ryan. “It feels like he's getting bigger and stronger with time. We all want everything to happen tomorrow, but if you're patient with these horses and give them the chance to be able to be what they can be, it's amazing how they can repay you.”
SF Racing, Startlight Racing and Madaket Stables, along with various partners, will also be represented on the Belmont undercard by Doppelganger (Into Mischief) in the GI Hill 'n' Dale Metropolitan H. and by Fort Bragg (Tapit), Gilmore (Twirling Candy), and Fort Warren (Curlin) in the GI Woody Stephens S.
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Record Number of Races as Action Resumes in Ta’if
The new Saudi Arabian racing season begins on June 1 at King Khalid Racecourse in Ta'if, where the programme has been “significantly expanded”.
With an earlier resumption to racing in 2023, an extra 54 races have been scheduled through to the close of the season on October 7. From a record total of 486 races, 187 will be for local and imported horses (up from 147), 193 for locally-bred horses only (up from 188) and 108 for Purebred Arabian horses (up from 49).
The Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Cup and the Listed King Faisal Cup take place on Saturday, September 2, with the Ta'if Derby 20 days later. Prize-money for each of the Thursday meetings has been increased by 25%.
“The growth of racing in Ta'if for the 2023 season further demonstrates our aim to develop the sport of horse racing in Saudi Arabia and underscores our commitment to securing a bright future for Purebred Arabian racing,” said Prince Abdullah Bin Khaled Al Saud, chairman of the JCSA's Technical Committee.
“The expanded fixture list as well as the significant increase in prize-money offers trainers more opportunity for all categories of horse.
“Our 193 races tailored specifically to locally bred horses supports our all-important domestic breeding industry and Purebred Arabian horses now have more than double the opportunity when compared to last season.
“Coupled with our juvenile racing schedule we see Ta'if as a significant season in its own right, but it also serves as an excellent launch pad to the Riyadh racing season and gives visitors the chance to view the equine superstars of tomorrow.”
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Tinky: The Met Mile Rescheduling A Business Win? Not So Fast, Ray
While I typically find Ray's View From the Eighth Pole columns to be insightful, his most recent offering appears as though it may have been written on one of those foggy Saratoga mornings when it's difficult to see the finish line 100 feet out, let alone from an eighth of a mile.
The problem that I have with his conclusion, which is neatly summarized in the title of his piece, is that he attempts to support it through the use of highly misleading data, derived from this chart:
The simple reason that the data shown is misleading is because it is not inflation adjusted, and the extreme impact of the resulting miscalculations can be understood when considering his primary claims. First, we have this:
To their credit, NYRA has grown Memorial Day handle back to where it was in the Met Mile days, now focusing on a good day of racing to showcase New York-breds
a claim that is patently false.
The $16 million figure representing the Memorial Day handle in 2013 is actually equivalent to $20 million in 2022 inflation-adjusted dollars. So, in an apples to apples comparison, the 2022 figure ($14 million) reveals a $6 million, or ~30 percent decline in real dollars. A 30 percent decline!
This is Ray's other central claim:
Making Belmont Stakes Day as strong a day of racing as there is this side of the Breeders' Cup has helped handle, especially when a horse is going for the Triple Crown.
First, we have no idea if, or to what degree moving the Met Mile (and two other races) has impacted handle in Triple Crown editions of Belmont days. It's just not possible to judge with any confidence, as the only three which fell into that category over the past 25 years occurred after the change, and are extreme outliers.
But setting aside those special days, it is possible to accurately judge the relative handles when there were no TC contenders. I won't use 2012 data, as there was hype around I'll Have Another, even though he was scratched the day before the event. In 2013, there was ~$89 million wagered, which is equivalent to ~$112 million inflation-adjusted (2022) dollars. In 2022, the handle was ~$99 million, which means that in real dollars, there was a ~$13 million, or ~12% decline in wagering.
These two simple, yet obviously important adjustments, not only undercut Ray's claim that the move of the Met Mile “proved” to be a good business decision by NYRA, but suggest the opposite!
I will assume that Ray is correct about NYRA retaining a higher percentage of simulcast wagering on Belmont days, and ideally, that should be factored into the adjusted data. But even if it were (I have no access to the relevant details), it seems highly unlikely that it would significantly alter the basic picture.
Full disclosure: I was unhappy with the move originally, and criticized it publicly at the time. But as Daniel Patrick Moynihan famously said, 'Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts.”
–Tinky
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Tinky is the nom de plume of a student of the game who developed a passion for Thoroughbred racing in the mid-1970s, and has been an industry professional for ~four decades (and counting). He also has a long-standing history of commenting publicly on various racing-related sites around the internet, including The Paulick Report.
If you would like to submit a letter to the editor, please write to info at paulickreport.com and include contact information where you may be reached if editorial staff have any questions.
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