Colebrook Sends Two Runners to Blue Grass Debut

Five weeks ago, Ben Colebrook had to jump through quite a few hoops to make sure he could see both of his top 3-year-old colts make the starting gate on the road to the Kentucky Derby. Without so much as pausing to get his picture taken after Raise Cain's (Violence) victory in the GIII Gotham S., the conditioner hopped on a plane bound for Kentucky to saddle Scoobie Quando (Uncle Mo) ahead of a runner-up effort in the John Battaglia Memorial S. at Turfway just over four hours later.

This time around, Colebrook decided to avoid the tumultuous travel schedule altogether, ensuring that he would be on-site to watch both of his stable stars perform, as the pair of colts are pointed for Saturday's $1 million GI Toyota Blue Grass S.

While Colebrook said it would have been ideal to keep the two sophomores–who are both campaigned by Andrew and Rania Warren–separate for their final Kentucky Derby preps, he opted against shipping Raise Cain back to Aqueduct for the GII Wood Memorial S. and ultimately decided it would be best to remain at their home track.

Raise Cain has already proven himself at Keeneland. The son of Violence broke his maiden and ran third in the Bowman Mill S. there last fall and then trained at the Lexington oval throughout the winter. Following his 7 1/2-length score in the Gotham, where he earned a career-high 90 Beyer Speed Figure going from eleventh to first over a muddy Aqueduct track, the bay has put in two works at Keeneland, most recently going four furlongs in :47.80 on Mar. 30.

“He came out of the Gotham in good shape and he's had two nice works here,” Colebrook explained. “He's familiar with the surroundings and he's won here before, so he's coming into the race really well.”

Entering his first Grade I contest as the third choice with morning-line odds of 9/2, Raise Cain will break from post 10 in an 11-horse field with Joel Rosario aboard. Colebrook explained why he believes the race–and the post position–will favor the colt's closing running style.

“On paper it looks like there will be some pace and hopefully from that outside post [he can] just get over and work out a trip like he did in the Gotham where he can make that one run and sustain it. We're just looking for a good race and something to build off of to hopefully go on to Churchill.”

While Raise Cain has already secured 54 points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, his stablemate Scoobie Quando will need a breakthrough performance on Saturday for a chance at making it to the Derby starting gate.

Unraced at two, Scoobie Quando was confidently placed for his winning debut in the Turfway Prevue S. in January. He ran second in his next two starts at Turfway, getting lost in the pack and making late moves in both races.

“He went all the way back to last at the top of the stretch and then he flew home,” Colebrook said of the colt's second-place effort 3 ½ lengths behind Congruent (Tapit) in the John Battaglia last time out. “Nothing against the winner, who ran a great race, but I think the margin would have been closer and it would have been a horse race had we gotten out earlier.”

Scoobie Quando was initially slated for the GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks on Mar. 25, but a minor skin issue the morning of the race forced him to scratch. While Colebrook considered running the son of Uncle Mo in the GIII Lexington S. on April 15, he ultimately decided that the timing of the Blue Grass would be the ideal setup for a Derby bid.

That initial setback from the Jeff Ruby scratch may have proven to be a blessing in disguise as Colebrook said that Scoobie Quando seems to have taken to the main track as he prepares for his dirt debut. The colt breezed a sharp five furlongs in :59.80 (1/13) over the Keeneland main track on Mar. 30.

“We worked him very aggressive on the dirt and he worked really, really well,” Colebrook noted. “[Jockey] Luan Machado was on him and thought he got over the dirt surface better than the Tapeta. So Scoobie over the dirt is a little bit of an unknown, but in the mornings he certainly seems like he really relishes the track.”

'Scoobie' may be the less experienced of Colebrook's two Blue Grass contender, but the trainer spoke highly of both horses.

“They're both very quality horses,” he said. “I think Scoobie has always shown a little bit more brilliance in his works. Raise Cain has always been kind of workman-like and does everything you ask of him. He was one that when you ran him first time, he didn't even know what was going on because he was so relaxed. He's just very reliable. Scoobie has certainly done nothing wrong so far, but he's just a little more inexperienced at this stage because he got a later start.”

A native of Central Kentucky, Colebrook grew up attending the Keeneland race meet with his father. The horseman is now in his eleventh year of training and Keeneland has become the setting for some of his best achievements. He saddled his first winner there in 2013, scored his first graded stakes win with Sparking Review in the GIII Pin Oak Valley View (Lemon Drop Kid) a year later, and celebrated his first career Grade I victory with Knicks Go (Paynter) in the GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity in 2018. This weekend, he hopes to add another 'first' to the list as he saddles his first two runners for the famed track's premier Derby prep race.

“This will be my first time with a runner in the Blue Grass and to have two in it is crazier,” he said. “It's a dream come true just to have a horse that's good enough to run in the Blue Grass because I grew up watching the Blue Grass as a kid. It's one of the biggest preps for the Derby and it's here at our home track so it's a big deal to even be in the race. We're super proud of that and hopefully they both can give a good account of themselves, which I think they will.”

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Economic Indicators: Wagering Trends Begin To Shift Upward, Purses Continue Positive Trajectory

Equibase, North American racing's official database, has released its March statistics for the industry's economic indicators, including field size, wagering, and other data.

March's metrics show a 2.14 percent increase in total wagering on U.S. races, an improving trend over the 5.21 percent decline from February of 2022 to February 2023, and the 7.19 percent decline from January of 2022 to January 2023. Overall, the first quarter statistics show a 3.40 decline in total wagering through the first three months of 2023.

The number of race days and races held both showed mild increases, leading to a first quarter average daily wagering figure that declined 5.16 percent.

The average field size in March rang in at 7.48 starters per race, a 1.62 percent increase over the same month in 2022. The first quarter figures show average field size for the first three months of 2023 at 7.59 starters; while that's a decline from the first two months of 2023, which saw average field size at 7.66 starters per race, the number remains slightly above average for the time of year.

Purses continue to show an upward trend: this March, the total purses offered was 9.16 percent higher than the same month of 2022, continuing the trend from January and February with year-to-date purses offered up 8.70 percent.

Equibase is continuing to provide monthly reporting of its Economic Indicators Advisories as a service to the industry and in consideration of the economic changes resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. The Advisory is typically disseminated on a quarterly basis to provide key metrics used to measure racing's performance throughout the year.

March 2023 vs. March 2022
Indicator March 2023 March 2022 % Change
Wagering on U.S. Races* $962,703,949 $942,491,814 +2.14%
U.S. Purses $94,783,996 $86,833,249 +9.16%
U.S. Race Days 294 291 +1.03%
U.S. Races 2,469 2,423 +1.90%
U.S. Starts 18,466 17,833 +3.55%
Average Field Size 7.48 7.36 +1.62%
Average Wagering Per Race Day $3,274,503 $3,238,803 +1.10%
Average Purses Per Race Day $322,395 $298,396 +8.04%

1st QTR 2023 vs. 1st QTR 2022
Indicator 1st QTR 2023 1st QTR 2022 % Change
Wagering on U.S. Races* $2,700,226,520 $2,795,180,408 -3.40%
U.S. Purses $266,034,135 $244,752,338 +8.70%
U.S. Race Days 822 807 +1.86%
U.S. Races 6,977 6,768 +3.09%
U.S. Starts 52,979 51,146 +3.58%
Average Field Size 7.59 7.56 +0.48%
Average Wagering Per Race Day $3,284,947 $3,463,668 -5.16%
Average Purses Per Race Day $323,643 $303,287 +6.71%

* Includes worldwide commingled wagering on U.S. races.

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Equibase Analysis: Classic Car Wash Offers Best Value In Blue Grass Stakes

This Saturday's $1 million Toyota Blue Grass Stakes drew a field of 11 3-year-olds aspiring to make their marks and move on to the Kentucky Derby in four weeks. The winner's share of 100 points on the “Road to the Derby” makes it a certainly that horse can run in the “Greatest Two Minutes in Sports” next month, but even finishing third (worth 30 points) could be enough for some horses which already have a few points to their names.

Leading the field is Tapit Trice (50 points to date), winner of the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby last month and having won three races in a row. Tampa Bay Derby runner-up Classic Car Wash (26 points) hopes to run as well or better in the Blue Grass Stakes and make his way on to the big dance on May 6. Raise Cain (54 points) is another strong contender, having proven he belongs near the top of the division with a decisive seven and one-half length win last month in the G3 Gotham Stakes in New York.

Verifying (14 points) was stakes placed last year as a 2-year-old when second in the G1 Champagne Stakes and finished fourth as the betting favorite in the G2 Rebel Stakes in his most recent race. Blazing Sevens (16 points) won the Champagne last fall before a fourth place effort in the G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile. However, his only start this year resulted in an eighth of nine finish in the G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes. Sun Thunder (34 points) got on everyone's radar with a big finish from 10th to second in the G2 Risen Star Stakes in February, but that was followed up by a non-threatening fifth place effort in the G2 Louisiana Derby two weeks ago.

Hayes Strike (7 points) just won the non-graded Private Terms Stakes at Laurel Race Course in Maryland and he was competitive last fall as a 2-year-old when third in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes so appears to fit with these. Scoobie Quando (8 points) rallied fast in the stretch for second in the John Battaglia Stakes five weeks ago and is another lightly raced and potentially improving prospect. Clear the Air (5 points) earned five points when rallying for fifth in the Gotham and appears to need a lot of improvement to earn significant points in this race. Mendelssohns March and Major Blue complete the field of 11, with both entering stakes competition for the first time.

Analysis and top contenders:

I am going to start with Classic Car Wash, not because he's superior to the three likely public choices in Tapit Trice, Verifying and Raise Cain, but because it is very likely he will offer the highest odds of the quartet. The colt continues to improve with every start, having raised his ™ Equibase® Speed Figures in four straight races, from 77, to 80, to 86 and then to 95. That last effort came when finishing second of 12 to Tapit Trice in the Tampa Bay Derby four weeks ago. In that race, Classic Car Wash began in ninth in the field of 12, advanced to fourth with a quarter mile to run, was third with an eighth of a mile to run, then made the lead and was accelerating before Tapit Trice showed his late kick to go by in the final sixteenth of a mile. I particularly like it when horses lead late in a race even if beaten by another horse or two because it shows they understand what their task is and they can respond to the jockey's cues to accelerate when needed. Now getting the services of Javier Castellano and with that last race 95 figure just three points below the top speed figure (98, by Tapit Trice) in the field, Classic Car Wash only has a slightly lesser probability than the top betting choice, but will offer about four times the return and that is why he is my top choice to win this year's Toyota Blue Grass Stakes.

Tapit Trice started showing excellent physical ability and mental toughness in the second start of his career last December when battling head-and-head in the final eighth of a mile, prevailing by a neck. The 96 ™ figure earned at the time was very strong for a 2-year-old in December, comparable to the 98 figure Blazing Sevens earned winning the Champagne Stakes in October. In his third career start Tapit Trice pulled off to an eight-length win with the same 96 figure, then when sent to post as the prohibitive betting choice in the Tampa Bay Derby, he did not disappoint. Starting out 11th of 12 in that race, Tapit Trice showed little early speed until about three-sixteenths of a mile to run when reminded to start running harder by jockey Luis Saez. Continually passing horses, the colt went from 4 1/2 lengths back with an eighth of a mile to go to draw off by two lengths, using big strides to gobble up the ground. Horses have won the Blue Grass Stakes coming from far back and certainly the field high last race 98 figure earned in the Tampa Bay Derby can be improved upon in this race. On the other hand, there may be few horses interested in leading early in this race and the pace may be slower than average, which has potential to hamper the same kind of late kick Tapit Trice showed in his most recent race.

Verifying was highly regarded in the Rebel Stakes near the end of February, entering the gate as the 3 to 2 betting choice. This was because prior to that, in his 3-year-old debut in January, he had won easily by five lengths and earned an extremely strong 102 figure. Last fall Verifying proved to fit with the best 2-year-olds when making the lead late in the Champagne Stakes before being passed by winner Blazing Sevens, but he (as well as Blazing Sevens) did not follow through on that promise when finishing sixth of 10 in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Allowed to mature over the winter, Verifying returned to win in his 3-year-old debut, with that 102 figure effort before his fourth place Rebel effort. Although disappointing, the poor quality of that effort might be discounted in favor of his previous top effort. This is because he wasn't as aggressively ridden in the Rebel as he had been previously and never really established a good position, particularly in the critical early stages of the stretch run when he was in traffic and continued to weave in and out behind other horses to find a clear path to run. With a jockey change to Tyler Gaffalione, this half-brother to champion Midnight Bisou ($7.4 million in earnings) may be able to get the lead shortly after the start and lead all the way to redeem himself in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes.

Raise Cain burst on the scene last month in the Gotham Stakes with an upset win at 23 to 1 odds. He had run well when second at the same odds two races prior to that in the Gun Runner Stakes, but after a non-threating fifth in another stakes it appeared to bettors he was not improving. That was not to be the case, as Raise Cain showed a lot of moxie when he rallied from seventh with a quarter mile to go, got completely stopped in traffic, then re-accelerated to forge to the front and draw off with a 91 figure. Since that race, Raise Cain has been working very nicely at Keeneland in the morning and gets the services of Joel Rosario, so can be expected once again to be passing many, if not all, in the stretch run of this race.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase® Speed Figures, is Blazing Sevens (98), Clear the Air (94), Hayes Strike (91), Mendelssohns March (83), Major Blue (91), Scoobie Quando (94) and Sun Thunder (94).

Win Contenders:
Classic Car Wash
Tapit Trice
Verifying
Raise Cain

Toyota Blue Grass Stakes – Grade 1
Race 9 at Keeneland
Saturday, April 8 – Post Time 5:15 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Eighth
Three Years Old
Purse: $1 Million
T.V.: NBC 4:30 – 6 P.M. Eastern Time

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‘In This Business, It’s Very Easy To Get Humbled’: Breeder John Sikura Hopes Slip Mahoney Can Deliver Roses

The regally-bred Slip Mahoney, who sports Grade 1 talent on both sides of his pedigree, will look to add to his family's stellar resume for breeders Hill 'n' Dale Equine Holdings and Phillip Steinberg in Saturday's Grade 2, $750,000 Wood Memorial presented by Resorts World Casino at Aqueduct Racetrack.

Slip Mahoney, who finished a closing second in the Grade 3 Gotham on March 4 at the Big A, is in pursuit of the winner's share of Kentucky Derby qualifying points in the Wood Memorial, which awards 100-40-30-20-10 points to the top-five finishers, respectively.

Owned by Gold Square and trained by two-time Eclipse Award-winner Brad Cox, the grey son of Arrogate is a third-generation homebred for Steinberg and John Sikura's Hill 'n' Dale Farm, produced from the multiple graded stakes-winning mare Got Lucky. While the colt's breeding is impeccable, Sikura said there were last-minute changes in stallion plans that led to the breeding of Slip Mahoney, who was installed as the 6-1 co-third choice on the morning line in the Wood Memorial.

“We were going to breed to Justify, but he was busy, so we bred to Arrogate,” said Sikura. “With the Unbridled's Song influence in the pedigree, hopefully there will be some speed, and the dam is a medium-sized mare. But ideally, as a commercial breeder you want to produce a horse with leg and length and a big, strong horse. We thought he had the chance physically to give that to her. She had the same type of foal she always has, which is medium-sized and not that big, imposing horse. It didn't work in that respect, but it worked in the sense that we thought he would be a runner.”

Slip Mahoney's story begins nearly two decades ago when his third dam, the Ogden Phipps homebred graded stakes winner Get Lucky, produced a Deputy Minister filly named Malka in 2005. Malka caught Sikura's eye when she broke her maiden in late 2007, leading him to purchase a share in the filly from Ben Walden. She raced three more times before she was retired and subsequently bred to A.P. Indy in 2010. The resulting foal was Got Lucky, who Sikura aptly named after the unlikely circumstances of her conception.

“Malka was by Deputy Minister, who I had a feeling would be a great broodmare sire,” said Sikura. “After she broke her maiden, I called Ben Walden, who was a partner and I bought his interest in Malka with Phil Steinberg. We bred her to A.P. Indy in his last crop, so he wasn't getting his mares in foal too well – therefore, the name Got Lucky. We got lucky that we managed to get one from his last crop.”

Got Lucky earned just shy of $1 million in her stellar career before retiring in 2015 and producing her first foal, an unraced son of War Front, in 2017. The following year, she produced the multiple graded stakes-placed Overtook and a filly in 2019 before delivering Slip Mahoney in 2020.

Sikura ultimately decided to sell Slip Mahoney at the 2021 Keeneland September Yearling Sale, and attracted the attention of Joe Hardoon, the agent for Gold Square, selling for $150,000.

Slip Mahoney was one of three subsequent graded performers by the late Arrogate to go through the ring, including dual Grade 1-winner Cave Rock [$550,000] and Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks victress Affirmative Lady [$210,000].

“When we sold him as a yearling, he wasn't the biggest horse,” said Sikura. “He had length but lacked a little bit of leg. Arrogate was cold as a sire. He wasn't a horse that we were nine deep on at the sales ring. Time will only tell what Slip Mahoney's true potential is, but he's a magnificently bred horse and Arrogate is now a very good sire. It's tragic we lost him early on.”

Slip Mahoney debuted for Cox in November at Aqueduct and graduated at third asking after a dramatic battle with returning Wood Memorial rival Crupi down the stretch to post a head victory on January 21 going a one-turn mile. He followed with his rallying runner-up finish in the Gotham where he closed from 13th-of-14 to secure place honors and 20 qualifying points towards the Kentucky Derby.

Sikura said it has been rewarding to see Slip Mahoney show promise on the racetrack.

“They [Gold Square] loved the horse and you're just always hoping that anything you breed, sell and raise can go on to be successful for their new owners,” Sikura said. “He has emerged as a nice 3-year-old and now he has to step up and separate himself to see if he can get into that elite group.”

Should Slip Mahoney perform well in the Wood Memorial, he would have the chance to provide Sikura with his first Kentucky Derby winner as a breeder. Hill 'n' Dale was the co-breeder of 1997 Belmont Stakes winner Touch Gold and 2017 Preakness winner Cloud Computing, but Sikura said an elusive Kentucky Derby score would be a particularly meaningful achievement.

“In this business, it's very easy to get humbled. There will be lots of nice horses in the race and I just hope he runs his race without excuses,” said Sikura. “It would be a dream to have a horse run in the Derby. We bred a Preakness winner, a Belmont winner, but to have a horse win the Derby would be great. We'll enjoy the race, see what happens and hope he runs well. We're excited and wish all the best to the connections.”

Slip Mahoney will emerge from post 5 in rein to Dylan Davis, who was the pilot in his first three outings. The Wood Memorial is slated as the final race on Saturday's 11-race card with a 6:16 p.m. Eastern post time.

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