The Kentucky Derby prep schedule is in full swing, which means it's time for detailed looks at the horses that could fill the starting gate with Andrew Champagne of Catena Media and The Saratogian's Pink Sheet.
Check back with the Paulick Report regularly for updated rankings that include news, notes, and opinions on the 3-year-olds that figure to take center stage.
There were no Kentucky Derby preps last weekend, so this Derby Bubble is going to look a bit different. In this week's edition, I'll go horse by horse and draw comparisons to runners in past Kentucky Derbies that you might remember.
With the NFL Draft a month away, think of this as a distant cousin of prospect comparisons you'll see on whatever sports network of choice you watch. If nothing else, it's a fun exercise/trip down Memory Lane, so let's get started.
Kentucky-bred contenders will be highlighted in red, and will receive additional analysis into their breeders, broodmares, and auction histories. Pedigree notes are written by Joe Nevills.
#1: Forte
Pedigree: Violence – Queen Caroline (by Blame)
Owner: Repole Stable, St. Elias Stable
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Breeder: South Gate Farm (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 90
COMPARISON: Nyquist. Like Forte, Nyquist was the consensus top 2-year-old in his crop, and he came back clearly ahead of the rest of his rivals on the road to the Kentucky Derby. Others passed him later in the year, but Nyquist earned his place in history as just the second Thoroughbred to capture both the Derby and the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. It's a list Forte will look to add himself to in less than two months.
Forte was bred in Kentucky by South Gate Farm, out of the multiple stakes-winning Blame mare Queen Caroline. He sold for $110,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. Amy Moore of South Gate Farm bought Queen Caroline as a yearling for $170,000 at the 2014 Keeneland September sale.
#2: Instant Coffee
Pedigree: Bolt d'Oro – Follow No One (by Uncle Mo)
Owner: Gold Square LLC
Trainer: Brad Cox
Breeder: Sagamore Farm (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 32
COMPARISON: McCraken. It's easy to forget this, but McCraken won his first four races, including the 2016 G2 Kentucky Jockey Club. The closer showed a clear affinity for Churchill Downs, much like Instant Coffee, who won the 2022 renewal of that race and has since added the G3 Lecomte.
Instant Coffee was bred in Kentucky by Sagamore Farm, out of the stakes-placed Uncle Mo mare Follow No One. He hammered for $200,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Sagamore Farm purchased Follow No One for $100,000 at the 2016 OBS Spring 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale.
#3: Tapit Trice
Pedigree: Tapit – Danzatrice (by Dunkirk)
Owner: Whisper Hill Farm, Gainesway Stable
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Breeder: Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 50
COMPARISON: Tapwrit. This is too easy. Son of Tapit? Check. Trained by Todd Pletcher? Check. G3 Tampa Bay Derby winner? Check. Looks like he wants to run all day long? You get the picture. Tapwrit was sixth in the 2017 Derby behind another horse we'll talk about later, but he put it all together five weeks later to take the Belmont.
Tapit Trice was bred in Kentucky by Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd., out of the Grade 3-placed multiple stakes-winning Dunkirk mare Danzatrice. Tapit Trice sold to Mandy Pope's Whisper Hill Farm for $1.3 million at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. A half-sister to champion Jaywalk, Danzatrice was a $105,000 purchase by Gainesway at the 2014 OBS Spring 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale.
#4: Hit Show
Pedigree: Candy Ride – Actress (by Tapit)
Owner: Gary and Mary West
Trainer: Brad Cox
Breeder: Gary & Mary West Stables Inc. (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 20
COMPARISON: Early Voting. It seems lazy, but there's plenty to like about comparing the last two G3 Withers winners (say THAT five times fast). Both made their stakes debuts in that race without much prior experience, and both won easily. Early Voting skipped the Derby after running second in the G2 Wood, but, of course, took the second leg of the Triple Crown.
Hit Show was bred in Kentucky by Gary & Mary West Stables Inc., out of the Tapit mare Actress, who was herself a Grade 2 winner as a homebred for the Wests.
#5: Practical Move
Pedigree: Practical Joke – Ack Naughty (by Afleet Alex)
Owner: Amestoy, Amestoy, and Beasley
Trainer: Tim Yakteen
Breeder: Chad Brown & Head of Plains Partners (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 60
COMPARISON: McKinzie. Both runners won the G2 Los Alamitos Futurity prior to contesting the G2 San Felipe. The difference is, Practical Move had a much, much luckier trip in his renewal. While the Tim Yakteen trainee benefited from saving ground and having plenty of room turning for home, McKinzie was disqualified after a lengthy inquiry. The 2018 runner-up, though, wound up winning several important races later on, including that year's G1 Pennsylvania Derby and the 2019 G1 Whitney.
Practical Move was bred in Kentucky by Chad Brown and Head of Plains Partners, out of the stakes-placed Afleet Alex mare Ack Naughty. He sold to his current ownership for $230,000 at the 2022 OBS Spring sale. Ack Naughty was recently sold, pregnant to Upstart, to Chester and Mary Broman for $500,000 at this year's Keeneland January sale.
#6: Geaux Rocket Ride
Pedigree: Candy Ride – Beyond Grace (by Uncle Mo)
Owner: Pin Oak Stud
Trainer: Richard Mandella
Breeder: OXO Equine LLC (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 20
COMPARISON: Paradise Woods. Yes, I'm comparing a colt to a filly, but in my defense, there aren't many times Richard Mandella has jumped a horse into top-tier competition off of a single maiden win. Paradise Woods romped in the G1 Santa Anita Oaks and showed herself as one of the top horses in her division multiple times. Geaux Rocket Ride, meanwhile, showed some maturity far beyond his experience when he re-rallied to run second in the G2 San Felipe.
Geaux Rocket Ride was bred in Kentucky by Larry Best's OXO Equine, out of the the unplaced Uncle Mo mare Beyond Grace. He sold for $350,000 at the 2021 Fasig-Tipton July Yearling Sale. Best purchased Beyond Grace for $1.5 million at the 2017 Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream Selected 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale.
#7: Angel of Empire
Pedigree: Classic Empire – Armony's Angel (by To Honor and Serve)
Owner: Albaugh Family Stables
Trainer: Brad Cox
Breeder: Forgotten Land Investment Inc & Black Diamond Equine Corp. (PA)
Kentucky Derby points: 54
COMPARISON: Mandaloun. The fellow Cox trainee won the 2021 G2 Risen Star, faltered in the G2 Louisiana Derby, and then either won the Kentucky Derby or finished second behind Medina Spirit (depending on who you ask). Angel of Empire, meanwhile, won this year's renewal, and his form looks far better if you draw a line through September's failed try on turf at Kentucky Downs.
#8: Confidence Game
Pedigree: Candy Ride – Eblouissante (by Bernardini)
Owner: Don't Tell My Wife Stables
Trainer: Keith Desormeaux
Breeder: Summer Wind Equine LLC (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 57
COMPARISON: Exaggerator. This is another one that just makes too much sense. Exaggerator was a Keith Desormeaux-trained mud freak who chased Nyquist a few times before splashing his way home in the Preakness. Confidence Game is bred up and down for an off track, one he got when he won this year's G2 Rebel at Oaklawn Park.
Confidence Game was bred in Kentucky by Summer Wind Equine, out of the winning Bernardini mare Eblouissante. Desormeaux signed the ticket on Confidence Game for $25,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Sale. Eblouissante, a half-sister to Hall of Famer Zenyatta, was purchased by Summer Wind Farm for $1,434,279, pregnant to Dansili, at the 2016 Tattersalls December Mares Sale.
#9: Rocket Can
Pedigree: Into Mischief – Tension (by Tapit)
Owner: Frank Fletcher Racing
Trainer: Bill Mott
Breeder: Woodford Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 40
COMPARISON: Upstart. Rocket Can's G3 Holy Bull win was the slowest renewal since the race stretched out to 1 1/16 miles in 2013. That mark was previously held by Upstart, but that's not an unflattering comparison (even though the Rick Violette trainee won just once after that). Upstart finished his career with more than $1.7 million in earnings and placed in six Grade 1 races.
Rocket Can was bred in Kentucky by Woodford Thoroughbreds LLC, out of the placed Tapit mare Tension. Woodford Thoroughbreds bought Tension pregnant to Curlin for $750,000 at the 2017 Keeneland November sale, and sold her at this year's Keeneland January sale.
#10: Raise Cain
Pedigree: Violence – Lemon Belle (by Lemon Drop Kid)
Owner: Andrew and Rania Warren
Trainer: Ben Colebrook
Breeder: Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 50
COMPARISON: I Want Revenge. Want to feel old? I Want Revenge overcame traffic that may as well have been imported in from Manhattan to win the Wood Memorial 14 years ago, in 2009. Raise Cain is almost certainly not of this caliber yet, but he got stopped going around the far turn in the G3 Gotham, had every excuse to give up the ghost, and instead won going away.
Raise Cain was bred in Kentucky by Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds, out of the winning Lemon Drop Kid mare Lemon Belle. He sold for $180,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds acquired Lemon Belle, pregnant to Violence, for $285,000 at the 2018 Keeneland November sale.
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If you appreciate our work, you can support us by subscribing to our Patreon stream. Learn more.#11: Dubyuhnell
Pedigree: Good Magic – Wild Gams (by Forest Wildcat)
Owner: West Paces Racing, Stonestreet Stables
Trainer: Danny Gargan
Breeder: Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 10
COMPARISON: Overanalyze. Overanalyze won the 2012 G2 Remsen Stakes, was eliminated by his trip in his 3-year-old debut, and bounced out of that race to win the G1 Arkansas Derby. Dubyuhnell, meanwhile, won the Remsen 10 years later and had absolutely zero chance in the G3 Sam F. Davis due to terrible racing luck. He's been working steadily in Florida since that effort, though, and figures to get one more shot at Derby points.
Dubyuhnell was bred in Kentucky by Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings, out of the multiple Grade 3-winning Forest Wildcat mare Wild Gams, whose runners also include Grade 2 winner Cazadero, stakes winner Mt. Brave, and Grade 3-placed Almost Famous. Dubyuhnell brought $400,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Sale, while Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings secured Wild Gams as a broodmare prospect for $1 million at the 2008 Keeneland November sale.
#12: Red Route One
Pedigree: Gun Runner – Red House (by Tapit)
Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Breeder: Winchell Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 33
COMPARISON: Super Stock. Every year, there's at least one closer that clunks up for checks and Derby points with astounding regularity. This year, it's Red Route One, and two years ago, Super Stock fit that mold. Like his fellow Steve Asmussen trainee, Super Stock was eligible for a first-level allowance until the spring of his 3-year-old season. He then won the Arkansas Derby to earn his ticket to Louisville.
Red Route One was bred in Kentucky by Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC, out of the unraced Tapit mare Red House, and he is a full-brother to stakes-winner Red Run. Red House is herself a Winchell homebred, out of 2014 Broodmare of the Year Fun House, making her a full-sister to champion Untapable and a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Paddy O'Prado.
#13: Kingsbarns
Pedigree: Uncle Mo – Lady Tapit (by Tapit)
Owner: Spendthrift Farm
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Breeder: Parks Investment Group, LLC (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 0
COMPARISON: Always Dreaming. This is another one too easy to pass up. Like Always Dreaming, Kingsbarns is a Todd Pletcher trainee that the Hall of Famer has taken his time with. Both won races at Tampa Bay Downs when they could've run elsewhere for more money. Always Dreaming developed and took Derbies in Florida and Kentucky. Kingsbarns will have a shot at a Derby of his own, in Louisiana, this Saturday.
Kingsbarns was bred in Kentucky by Parks Investment Group, out of the Grade 3-placed Tapit mare Lady Tapit, who is herself a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Gozzip Girl. After bringing $250,000 at the 2021 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga sale, the colt sold to Spendthrift Farm for $800,000 at last year's Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream Select 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale.
#14: Sun Thunder
Pedigree: Into Mischief – Greenfield d'Oro (by Medaglia d'Oro)
Owner: R.T. Racing, Cypress Creek Equine
Trainer: Ken McPeek
Breeder: Southern Equine Stables, LLC (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 24
COMPARISON: Country House. The eventual 2019 Derby winner also ran second in the Risen Star in his fourth career start, the beginning of an old-school spring campaign that saw him run in four stakes races in just two and a half months. Sun Thunder, meanwhile, faces off against several horses on this list in Saturday's Louisiana Derby.
Sun Thunder was bred in Kentucky by Southern Equine Stables, out of the placed Medaglia d'Oro mare Greenfield d'Oro. He sold as a weanling for $400,000 at the 2020 Keeneland November Breeding Stock Sale. Greenfield d'Oro, a daughter of champion sprinter Maryfield, is a homebred for Southern Equine Stables.
#15: Mage
Pedigree: Good Magic – Puca (by Big Brown)
Owner: OGMA Investments, Restropo, Sterling Racing, and CMNWLTH
Trainer: Gustavo Delgado
Breeder: Grandview Equine (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 10
COMPARISON: Social Inclusion. Here's a name that'll get folks going. Social Inclusion came out of nowhere to thump Honor Code in that one's 3-year-old debut, and he set a new track record in that effort. Neither Social Inclusion nor Mage raced as 2-year-olds, but they had enough talent to dance plenty of big dances against divisional heavyweights despite their inexperience.
Mage was bred in Kentucky by Grandview Equine, out of the Grade 1-placed stakes-winning Big Brown mare Puca. He brought $235,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale, then he sold for $290,000 at last year's Fasig-Tipton Midlantic 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale. Puca sold to Grandview Equine, pregnant to Gun Runner, for $475,000 at the 2018 Fasig-Tipton November Sale.
#16: Skinner
Pedigree: Curlin – Winding Way (by Malibu Moon)
Owner: C R K Stable
Trainer: John Shirreffs
Breeder: Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 15
COMPARISON: Candy Boy. Candy Boy raced in the same colors as Skinner and made a name for himself on the 2014 Derby trail. He won the G2 Robert B. Lewis before finishing third in the G1 Santa Anita Derby and 13th in the Kentucky Derby. Skinner, meanwhile, was third in the San Felipe and could still have room to grow given his relative inexperience.
Skinner was bred in Kentucky by Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings, out of the Grade 3-winning Malibu Moon mare Winding Way. He sold for $40,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Sale, then he was pinhooked for $510,000 at the 2022 OBS Spring Sale. Stonestreet bought Winding Way for $660,000 at the 2015 Keeneland November sale.
#17: Arctic Arrogance
Pedigree: Frosted – Modest Maven (by Uncle Mo)
Owner: Chester and Mary Broman
Trainer: Linda Rice
Breeder: Chester Broman & Mary R. Broman (NY)
Kentucky Derby points: 16
COMPARISON: Uncle Sigh. We'll stay in 2014 for this one, as Uncle Sigh, a fellow New York-bred, hadn't been worse than second in any start leading up to that year's Kentucky Derby. Arctic Arrogance has two wins and four seconds to this point, and while he missed the Gotham earlier this month, he remains possible for the Wood Memorial, where another good showing would give him more than enough points to make the Derby field.
#18: Two Phil's
Pedigree: Hard Spun – Mia Torri (by General Quarters)
Owner: Patricia's Hope, Phillip Sagan
Trainer: Larry Rivelli
Breeder: Phillip Sagan (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 23
COMPARISON: The Tabulator. Rivelli's known more for sprinters than distance-types, but The Tabulator was briefly on the 2018 Derby trail after a win in the previous year's Iroquois and a fifth-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile behind Good Magic. There are some distance questions with Two Phil's, but he'll have a chance to show his stamina in Saturday's Louisiana Derby and keep alive references to the greatest horse racing commercial ever made.
Two Phil's was bred in Kentucky by Phillip Sagan, out of the Grade 3-placed stakes-winning General Quarters mare Mia Torri, who Sagan acquired privately during her on-track career.
#19: Reincarnate
Pedigree: Good Magic – Allanah (by Scat Daddy)
Owner: SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Robert Masterson, et al
Trainer: Tim Yakteen
Breeder: Woods Edge Farm, LLC (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 15
COMPARISON: Bob and John. This Bob Baffert trainee won the 2006 G3 Sham 17 years before Reincarnate annexed the race earlier this season. The two horses, each not necessarily in the first string of Derby hopefuls for their particular barns at the start of their 3-year-old campaigns, also each ran third in their next starts. Bob and John went on to add the Wood Memorial, and Reincarnate likely needs another strong performance of his own to make the Derby field.
Reincarnate was bred in Kentucky by Woods Edge Farm, out of the stakes-winning Scat Daddy mare Allanah. He sold for $775,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Woods Edge Farm acquired Allanah, pregnant to Street Boss, for $105,000 at the 2018 Keeneland November sale.
#20: Curly Jack
Pedigree: Good Magic – Connie and Michael (by Roman Ruler)
Owner: Michael McLoughlin
Trainer: Tom Amoss
Breeder: Breeder: Betz/J.Betz/Burns/Camaquiki/C.Kidder/et al (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 17
COMPARISON: Lone Star Sky. We're going back 20 years for this one, as this fellow Amoss trainee also did his best work at Churchill Downs. Both runners won stakes races there as 2-year-olds before knocking heads with the best runners in their divisions. In Lone Star Sky's case, he ran 10 times before the Derby, and Curly Jack is also one of the most experienced horses in his generation.
Curly Jack was bred in Kentucky by the partnership of Betz/J.Betz/Burns/Camaquiki/C.Kidder/et al., out of the Grade 1-placed Roman Ruler mare Connie and Michael, whose runners also include stakes-placed Fannie and Freddie. Curly Jack sold to owner Michael McLoughlin for $180,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale.
The post The Derby Bubble Presented By Kentucky-Breds: Do These Horses Look Familiar? appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.
