March, 2023 | Horse Racing Free Tips

Blue Grass: Rematch Looms For 1-2 Tampa Bay Derby Finishers

With a week to go until the opening of the 15-day Keeneland Spring Meet in Lexington, Ky., fields are taking shape for the 99th running of the $1 million Toyota Blue Grass (G1) to be run Saturday, April 8, and the 86th running of the $600,000 Central Bank Ashland (G1) on opening day, April 7.

Heading the list of probable entrants for the Toyota Blue Grass, as compiled by stakes coordinator Baley Hare, are the 1-2 finishers from the Tampa Bay Derby (G3): Whisper Hill Farm and Gainesway Stable's Tapit Trice, trained by Todd Pletcher, and Gary Barber's Classic Car Wash, trained by Mark Casse.

Other runners considered likely to be in the entry box Wednesday are Blazing Sevens (trainer Chad Brown), Hayes Strike (Kenny McPeek), Major Blue (D. Wayne Lukas), Mendelssohns March (McPeek) and Verifying (Brad Cox). Considered as possible entrants are Raise Cain and Scoobie Quando, both trained by Ben Colebrook, and Sun Thunder (McPeek).

The Toyota Blue Grass, run at 1 1/8 miles on the main track, offers 200 points on a 100-40-30-20-10 scale to the first- through fifth-place finishers on the Road to the Kentucky Derby (G1) Presented by Woodford Reserve on May 6 at Churchill Downs.

D.J. Stable's champion Wonder Wheel, winner of last fall's Darley Alcibiades (G1) and NetJets Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) at Keeneland for trainer Mark Casse, heads the list of probable starters for the Central Bank Ashland. Run at 1 1/16 miles on the main track, the Central Bank Ashland offers 200 points on the same scale as the Toyota Blue Grass for the Kentucky Oaks (G1) to be run May 5.

Other names expected to hit the entry box Tuesday are Defining Purpose (Kenny McPeek), Guns n' Graces (Chad Brown), Julia Shining (Todd Pletcher), Pride of the Nile (Doug O'Neill) and Punchbowl (Brad Cox). Considered possible for the race is Effortlesslyelgant (Norm Casse).

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Weekend Lineup Presented By Sky Racing World: Champion Forte Leads Florida Derby, Reincarnate Favored In Arkansas Prep

Eclipse Award winner Forte will try to cement his status as the Kentucky Derby favorite as he faces eleven rivals in Saturday's $1 million Florida Derby (G1), while former Bob Baffert trainee Reincarnate has been installed as the slight morning-line favorite in the $1.25 million Arkansas Derby (G1).

The Grade 1 contests each offer points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby to the top five finishers on a scale of 100-40-30-20-10; Saturday's cards at Gulfstream Park and Oaklawn Park will also offer each track's final race on the Road to the Kentucky Oaks.

The Florida Derby will headline Gulfstream's 14-race program with 10 stakes, including five graded races, worth $2.375 million in purses. The 14-race Florida Derby program with a first-race post time of 11:30 a.m. (ET) will offer a $1-million guaranteed Late Pick 5 pool and a $750,000 guaranteed Late Pick 4 pool.

Other significant stakes action around the country on Saturday includes the Excelsior Stakes at Aqueduct; the Carolina Cup steeplechase races in Aiken; the G3 Oaklawn Mile and listed Hot Springs Stakes on the Arkansas Derby undercard; and the G2 Royal Heroine Stakes at Santa Anita.

Sunday's major stakes action includes Aqueduct's Top Flight Stakes, Oaklawn's Temperance Hill Stakes, and the G3 American Stakes at Santa Anita.

Meanwhile, south of the equator, Australian racing's equivalent of the Breeders' Cup commences this Friday night, as Day 1 of “The Championships at Randwick” showcases global Group 1 talent across a multitude of conditions and distances. The two-day elite event, which concludes next Friday night, features AU$20 million in purses. The TJ Smith Stakes (Race 7) exemplifies Australia's status as the world's premier source of turf sprinters. Nature Strip (7-2), who crushed his rivals at Royal Ascot last summer, appears to be finally succumbing to the reality of aging. Yet, after two subpar efforts this campaign, trainer Chris Waller is bullish that the 8-year-old has rebounded and is fully capable of a record fourth victory in this race.

Saturday

5:15 p.m. – Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks

Dorth Vader won't be able to sneak up on anyone when she runs in next Saturday's $250,000 Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2), certainly not after pulling off a startling 46-1 upset victory in the March 4 Davona Dale (G2) at Gulfstream Park. Not only did she win the seven-furlong stakes for 3-year-old fillies, the daughter of Girven also thoroughly dominated her rivals by 4¾ lengths, providing veteran Florida trainer Michael Yates with the first graded-stakes success of his career in the process.

Atomically, who was 11 lengths clear off the Yates trainee in the FSS final, is scheduled to seek a return to winning form in the Gulfstream Park Oaks. Purchased privately following her FSS win and transferred to Todd Pletcher's barn, Atomically finished seventh in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) at Keeneland in her next start. She came back to finish third in the Feb. 4 Forward Gal (G2) at Gulfstream.

Pletcher will also saddle Miracle, a New York-bred daughter of Mendelsohn. Miracle's first four starts came against state-breds, winning at first asking before placing in three straight one-turn New York-bred stakes. She stepped into graded-stakes company in her 2023 debut Feb. 18 at Fair Grounds, where she set the pace in the 1 1/16-mile Rachel Alexandra (G2) before finishing second, less than a length behind victorious Pretty Mischievous.

Affirmative Lady will enter the Gulfstream Oaks off a maiden victory, but the Graham Motion trainee also brings a solid stakes resume into the race. The daughter of Arrogate finished third and fourth in a pair of one-turn maiden races to start her career before finishing second in the 1 1/16-mile Demoiselle (G2) at Aqueduct Dec. 3, beaten by just a neck. She came back to finish third in the 1 1/8-mile Busanda Jan. 14 at Aqueduct before graduating at Gulfstream Park in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight race by 2 ¼ lengths Feb. 26.

Gulfstream Oaks Entries

6:40 p.m. – Grade 1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park

Trained by Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher, Forte established himself as a clear early favorite for the May 6 Kentucky Derby (G1) when he made an auspicious 2023 debut in the March 4 Fountain of Youth (G2) at Gulfstream Park. The son of Violence, who had won three consecutive Grade 1 races to finish his 2022 championship season, raced between horses while rating off the early pace before advancing along the backstretch, swinging four-wide into the stretch and drawing away to a 4½-length victory under Irad Ortiz Jr. The 2022 juvenile champion, who drew Post 11, has been installed as the 4-5 morning-line favorite in a field of a dozen 3-year-olds entered in the 1 1/8-mile Florida Derby.

Mage, who showed a lot of grit while finishing fourth in the Fountain of Youth in only his second career start, is slated to return in the Florida Derby. The Gustavo Delgado-trained son off Good Magic, who experienced gate trouble, bumping and a wide trip in that race, had previously debuted with a 3 ¾-length victory Jan. 28 at Gulfstream.

Cyclone Mischief, who rebounded from a disappointing effort in the Feb. 4 Holy Bull (G3) with a third-place finish in the Fountain of Youth, is scheduled to return in the Florida Derby. The Dale Romans-trained son of Into Mischief set the pace into the stretch before being overtaken by Forte and Holy Bull winner Rocket Can, who finished second, 1 ¼ lengths ahead of him.

Fort Bragg is scheduled to make his first start outside Southern California in the Florida Derby. Formerly trained by Bob Baffert and now conditioned by Tim Yakteen, the son of Tapit is coming off a fifth-place finish in the March 4 San Felipe (G2) at Santa Anita in his 3-year-old debut. Fort Bragg, who was entered to run in Sunday's Sunland Derby (G3), finished third in the Los Alamitos Futurity in his final 2022 start.

Dubyuhnell will seek to rebound from a disappointing performance in the Sam F. Davis (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs in his 3-year-old debut. The son of Good Magic, who finished sixth as the 2-1 favorite at Tampa, had concluded his 2-year-old campaign with a victory in the 1 1/8-mile Remsen (G2) over a sloppy Aqueduct main track. The Danny Gargan trainee, who broke his maiden in the Aqueduct slop in his previous start, will be ridden by Jose Ortiz

Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr., who saddled White Abarrio for a victory in last year's Florida Derby, is represented in this year's field by four longshots – West Coast Cowboy, Mr. Ripple, Nautical Star, and Mr. Peeks.

Florida Derby Entries

7:24 p.m. – Grade 1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park

Southern California-based Reincarnate is the 5-2 program favorite for the $1.25 million Arkansas Derby (G1) for 3-year-olds at 1 1/8 miles Saturday at Oaklawn. Reincarnate endured an eventful trip in the Rebel, his first start for trainer Tim Yakteen, and was beaten 2 ½ lengths by Confidence Game after losing valuable position when shuffled back shortly after the start and having to check approaching the eighth pole under Velazquez.

Late-running Red Route One opened his 3-year-old campaign with a runner-up finish behind unbeaten Arabian Knight in the $750,000 Southwest Stakes (G3) at 1 1/16 miles Jan. 28 before finishing second in the Rebel for Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen. Red Route One adds blinkers after falling far behind early in the Southwest and Rebel.

Asmussen will also start Harlocap, who exits a sixth in the $400,000 Risen Star Stakes (G2) at 1 1/8 miles Feb. 18 at Fair Grounds. Harlocap, who previously had been with Baffert on the West Coast, passed the Louisiana Derby in favor of the Arkansas Derby.

Two-time Eclipse Award winning trainer Brad Cox won the 2022 Arkansas Derby with Cyberknife and is represented by Angel of Empire, who returns to Oaklawn after winning the Risen Star in his last start.

Rocket Can won the $250,000 Holy Bull Stakes (G3) Feb. 4 and finished second behind champion Forte in the $400,000 Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) March 4. Both 1 1/16-mile races were at Gulfstream Park.

The speedy Two Eagles Rivers exits a sharp entry-level allowance victory at 1 mile Feb. 19 at Oaklawn for 2015 Oaklawn training champion Chris Hartman. The runner-up in that Feb. 19 race, Disarm, returned to finish second in the Louisiana Derby.

Arkansas Derby Entries

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‘He Just Does Everything Professionally’: Repole Riding High On Forte

Excited or nervous?

Just days away from the $1 million Curlin Florida Derby (G1) presented by Hill 'n' Dale Farms at Xalapa, Mike Repole, co-owner of champion and race favorite Forte, considered the question.

“I'm not sure yet…I haven't figured that out yet,” Repole said.

There isn't much Repole hasn't figured out yet. A successful businessman and entrepreneur with a passion for Thoroughbred racing, Repole and his partners Vinnie and Teresa Viola enter the Derby with a colt who's already an overwhelming favorite for the Florida Derby and the Kentucky Derby (G1) as well.

And there's good reason for it. A winner of four of five starts as a 2-year-old, including the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1), Forte returned from a four-month layoff in his 3-year-old debut and won Gulfstream's Fountain of Youth (G2) impressively March 4 while being ridden out by regular rider Irad Ortiz Jr.

Repole gets the buzz around Forte, and it wouldn't be surprising if he felt a bit of déjà vu this weekend. A dozen years ago another Repole champion, Uncle Mo, arrived at Gulfstream with much the same buzz, having also won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Uncle Mo made his 3-year-old debut in the Timely Writer and won impressively. Unfortunately, he was scratched the day before the Kentucky Derby.

“It's similar, having the 2-year-old champion, having the Derby favorite, until at least March,” Repole said. “Uncle Mo won the Timely Writer at Gulfstream, and we won the Fountain of Youth. I guess in that aspect it's similar and maybe some of the nervousness is that Uncle Mo would have been the [Kentucky] Derby favorite except he never got to run in the Derby. There are so many variables that go into this game.”

Repole believes there are a few reasons Forte is considered a strong Florida and Kentucky Derby favorite, possibly more so than Uncle Mo. And those could be the reasons he celebrates his first Florida Derby and, in May, his first Kentucky Derby.

“When they come back from 2 to 3, some peak at 2, some get better depending on what they did at 2. But to have a 2-year-old champion come back and actually train better, look better, and perform better is more than anyone can ask for, especially when he's the 2-year-old champion, and he's checking all those boxes right now.

“It's a combination of him doing everything right, and really no other horse out there shows himself as, 'Wow, this is going to be a really legitimate competitor.' Horses are either getting hurt or disappointing in a prep … and then the way [Forte] just came back,” he added. “The Fountain of Youth, you could say, it's tougher than the [Florida Derby] for a couple reasons. He's coming off a 4 ½-month layoff in the Fountain of Youth, and every horse in that race had a race either four weeks ago or five weeks ago and some had two starts this year. So, when you go into that and he beats the horse that won the Holy Bull [Rocket Can], and he wins impressively … and Forte comes in here and wins by five and never sees the stick. He just does everything professionally.”

And he did it effortlessly in the Fountain of Youth, galloping “past [opponents] in really a split second from minus two [lengths] to plus three,” Repole added.

Repole has campaigned a long list of successful runners, including 2019 Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) winner Vino Rosso with the Violas and 2022 Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Mo Donegal and runner-up Nest with Donegal Racing and Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners and Michael House. He credits his staff for his success, including trainer Todd Pletcher. “Todd is family,” he says.

And Repole said partnering and winning with the Violas – Vinnie being owner of the National Hockey League's Florida Panthers – “is like a Sunday dinner with family members growing up.”

For Repole, Saturday will present another opportunity to spend the day with family. He figures he'll bring 50-60 family and friends to the track, and he's hoping to be in the winner's circle before the Derby. Those pictures in the winner's circle, he says, are like family portraits.

“We have four in [Saturday],” he said. “If I go three-for-four and it's not Forte, it's not going to be a successful day. If I go one-for-four and Forte is the winner, it will be a great day.”

Repole, who has approximately 270 horses and strongly believes the sport has plenty of room for improvement, makes it clear he wants to win at the highest level while enjoying success with family and friends.

Once again, Repole can do just that this weekend.

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Overheating: Common Risk Factors For Thoroughbreds Identified

Hotter, more-humid weather puts racehorses at risk of overheating while racing, and a horse with a history of overheating in hot, humid weather is more at risk of exertional heat illness, new research shows. A horse that overheats is susceptible to heat exhaustion and even death.

Scientists from the University of Bristol recommend that racing officials monitor the wet bulb globe temperature index to help decide if racing should continue. This index is based on temperature, humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation.

Warming temperatures mean that more race days are becoming hotter than in the past, so racing officials in places like Australia and Japan have investigated what factors can lead to heat illness in horses. Thus far, there has been no conclusive way to predict which racehorses may overheat.

Dr. Leah Trigg, from the University of Bristol's vet school, worked with the British Horseracing Authority and University College Dublin to examine data on 704,434 racehorses on British tracks that were recorded in the BHA database between July 2010 and April 2018.

In total, 702 episodes of exertional heat stress or heat exhaustion were recorded during that time, equating to 0.1 percent of the horses.

The scientist modeled the probability that a racehorse would experience heat stress or heat exhaustion (collectively called heat illness) if the horse had a previous heat health incident, race distance, race start time, footing conditions, average temperatures in the five days before the races, and wet bulb globe temperature index.

In total, the model predicted 83.5 percent of exertional heat illness events, though the researchers noted that the model may produce a high number of false positives.

Predictive factors included longer race distances and higher wet bulb globe temperature indices. Horses that have overheated before were 18.59 times more likely to overheat again. Running on heavy or soft ground, or in races before 5 p.m., also increased risk of overheating.

Higher temperatures in the days leading up to the race were associated with reduced risk of overheating, the team concluded. This suggests that racehorses may acclimate to warmer temperatures.

Trigg suggests track officials monitor the wet bulb globe temperature index at race meets to determine whether racing should continue or if additional cooling areas should be provided. She recommends that this data be used to create evidence-based policies to protect racehorse welfare.