March, 2023 | Horse Racing Free Tips

Equibase Analysis: Longshot Prairie Hawk Poised For Big Effort In Tampa Bay Derby

This Saturday's Grade 2, $400,000 Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby brings together a field of 12, each with an opportunity to earn important points on the “Road to the Kentucky Derby” which are awarded to the top five finishers. Seven horses exit the local prep for this race, the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes, run four weeks ago, though not the winner (Litigate).

Sam F. Davis runner-up Groveland, third-place finisher Classic Car Wash, and fourth-place finisher Classic Legacy all hope to improve and become strong factors in the next two months leading to the first Saturday in May.

The other three horses exiting the Sam F. Davis may have their work cut out for them. That group includes likely pacesetter Zydeceaux, who won the Pasco Stakes in January before a fifth-place effort last month. Another two are Dreaming of Kona and Champions Dream, who finished seventh and 11th, respectively, in the Sam F. Davis. Prairie Hawk made a mid-race move in the Sam F. Davis to go from eighth to fourth before fading to ninth.

Similarly, Lord Miles tries his hand on Florida's west coast after a sixth of eight finish in the G3 Holy Bull Stakes five weeks ago. Freedom Road stretches out to two turns for the first time off a strong win at Tampa Bay Downs in January and hopes to run as well at this longer distance.

Then there's the pair of horses trained by Todd Pletcher in the form of Tapit Trice and Shesterkin. They enter this race off a one-two finish in a highly rated race at Tampa Bay Downs last month at the distance of this Tampa Bay Derby, with Tapit Trice having drawn off by eight lengths at the end to beat his stablemate.

Last but not least is Mikey Bananas, who finished second four weeks ago over the track in an allowance level race.

Top Win Contenders:

With Tapit Trice the one to beat on paper (more on him later), I want to first take a long look at Prairie Hawk, who was decently regarded by bettors at 8-1 odds in the Sam F. Davis but who ended up ninth. In his three previous races, Prairie Hawk had been first or second after a quarter mile had been run, winning both of his two-turn races, the second of the two with a 91 Equibase® Speed Figure which would be highest earned by any horse in this field if not for the 96 figure earned by Tapit Trice in his last two starts. In that last race, Prairie Hawk was bumped at the break and failed to establish the good early position he had in his previous two turn races; that likely cost him as he was eighth after a quarter mile then moved up quickly to sixth then to fourth before that rally took its toll.

Even though he gets the extreme outside post for the Tampa Bay Derby, Prairie Hawk may get good position out of the gate because the horse just inside of him, Zydeceaux, is a need-the-lead type who should go fast to get as close to the rail as possible before the first turn. Similarly, Dreaming of Kona and Groveland have “early” running styles, so Tampa Bay Downs leading jockey Samy Camacho may be in a good position stalking the pacesetters going into that first turn. If so, and if the colt runs the same or better as he did in his win on Jan. 12, he has potential to run a lot better than his odds may suggest he will. One more factor in his favor is his pedigree as he is by Curlin, sire of many a top 3-year-old over the years, and his dam produced 2018 Tampa Bay Derby winner Quip as well.

Tapit Trice has earned back-to-back 96 Figures which are better than any horse in the field. Nevertheless, although winning both races, the most recent by eight lengths, they were both one-turn races so this is a new task. As a son of Tapit there's little doubt the colt has the pedigree to compete favorably on the Derby trail and certainly trainer Todd Pletcher has a strong history with 3-year-olds, but just the same it can be tough to bet a horse at very low odds being asked to do something for the first time as is the case here.

Todd Pletcher has another competitor in Shesterkin, who is the most lightly raced horse in the field, having run just twice. He won his debut authoritatively on New Year's Eve then finished second by eight lengths to Tapit Trice last month. Interestingly enough, Shesterkin pretty much ran second from start to finish in the race, passed by his stablemate while the early leader faded. That is likely the reason blinkers go on for today's race, not for early speed but to help him focus in the late stages as perhaps he was distracted last time out. Having earned 84 and 82 figures for his first two races to date, he might have some more fight in him this time and that makes him a contender.

Classic Legacy is similar to Prairie Hawk in that he won easily one race before last then didn't fire in the Sam F. Davis when checking in fourth. Still, he has improved his figures in his last three races, from 82 to 84 to 86. Additionally the colt is making his second start after a two month layoff and gets the services of Irad Ortiz, Jr. for Bill Mott, who trained his half-brother Art Collector to win the Pegasus World Cup. A horse with this kind of pedigree in the hands of a Hall-of-Fame trainer is one we should consider as a contender in this year's Tampa Bay Derby as well.

The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Champions Dream (85), Classic Car Wash (86), Dreaming of Kona (81), Freedom Road (84), Groveland (89), Lord Miles (80), Mikey Bananas (88) and Zydeceaux (85).

Win Contenders, in preference order:
Prairie Hawk
Tapit Trice
Shesterkin
Classic Legacy

Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby – Grade 3
Race 11 at Tampa Bay Downs
Saturday, March 11 – Post Time 5:15 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Sixteenth
Three Year Olds
Purse: $400,000

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Alex Canchari’s Brain To Be Examined For Signs Of Chronic Traumatic Encephalopathy

Following the tragic suicide of 29-year-old jockey Alex Canchari last week, his family told television station KMSP that they have decided to send the rider's brain to the Boston University Chronic Traumatic Encephalopathy (CTE) Center. The hope is to determine whether Canchari suffered from CTE.

Chronic Traumatic Encephalopathy, or CTE, is a disorder caused by repeated head trauma that first made headlines when several famous NFL players were diagnosed after their deaths. The disorder received additional headlines in 2015 with an Eclipse Award-winning Paulick Report feature about the dangers of multiple concussions for jockeys.

CTE can only be confirmed after a patient's death, but sufferers report dramatic mood shifts, cognition problems, and loss of coordination.

“Personally, I think this is very likely,” Alex's sister, Ashley Canchari, told KMSP. “My brother told me multiple times, 'I have hit my head so much and I've fallen so many times off of horses. I think there is something wrong.'”

The CTE rate in jockeys is largely unknown, because the disorder is not something that shows up on a standard autopsy.

Meanwhile, Canchari's fiancé Brooke-Lyn Klauser and two children have been forced out of their apartment in Shakopee, Minn., KMSP reports; the lease at TRIO was only under Canchari's name. Another unborn child is due in August, so Klauser has had to engage the services of a lawyer to attempt to resolve the family's living situation.

Klauser told KMSP: “My question is, 'Why? Why would you do this to me and the kids, after everything we're going through right now?'”

Ashley Canchari has also created a GoFundMe for her brother's family.

“All funds raised will benefit his children,” she wrote. “Due to the circumstance of his death, there are no life insurance policies available.”

Pacific Classic Heads 2023 Del Mar Stakes Schedule

The $1,000,000 GI FanDuel Racing Pacific Classic tops 39 stakes over 31 days, a record-tying stakes schedule worth $8,275,000 for Del Mar's 84th season, beginning Friday, July 21.

The Pacific Classic Day card, set for Sept. 2, will feature five graded stakes, including the GII Del Mar H. and GII Del Mar Mile.

Del Mar has slated six Grade I races over the course of an eight-week summer stand, as well as six Breeders' Cup “Win & You're In” tests that each guarantee a spot in the starting gate for their major counterparts during the two-day, $28 million end-of-season championship spectacular that will be held this year at Santa Anita.

The “Win & You're In” races are the GI Bing Crosby ($2-million Breeders' Cup Sprint); GI Clement L. Hirsch ($2-million Breeders' Cup Distaff); GII Pat O'Brien S. at seven furlongs Aug. 26 ($1-million Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile); GI FanDuel Racing Pacific Classic ($6-million Breeders' Cup Classic); GII Del Mar H. at 11 furlongs on turf ($4-million Breeders' Cup Turf); GIII Green Flash H. at five furlongs on turf Sept. 2 ($1-million Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint).

“We've got a stakes schedule that mirrors our record program of last year,” said Del Mar vice president and racing secretary David Jerkens. “We made a couple of very minor tweaks, but otherwise it's the same offerings at the same value that our horsemen and women found especially pleasing last year.”

The seaside oval will kick off its season with a three-day weekend (July 21-23), then have five four-day weeks (Thursday through Sunday), a five-day week (including Labor Day Monday, Sept. 4), then finish with a Friday through Sunday weekend (Sept. 8-10).

For Del Mar's complete 2023 stakes schedule, click here.

The post Pacific Classic Heads 2023 Del Mar Stakes Schedule appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Letters to the Editor: The St Leger

A selection of correspondence in response to Emma Berry's Op/Ed 'Long May The Leger Run':

I read your article about the St Leger in the TDN with interest and I agree totally that it would be a great loss to British racing to see the Leger distance changed. When I started training I had horses for Lord Weinstock and Dick Hollingsworth, who only bred middle-distance horses, and I really enjoyed being able to allow their horses the time to develop and mature; they also improved significantly from two to three, so if they showed any real ability at two they were going to be useful at three.

I remember, in the early days, having two two-year-olds for Dick Hollingsworth and not ringing him for ages, as I didn't know what to say. April came and I rang him one Sunday to say I was pleased with them and they were coming along nicely, to which he replied, “How on earth do you know? I hope you haven't done any work with them.”

He went on to say that there was no point ringing him before July, as his two-year-olds shouldn't be doing anything before then. Not many owners would say that to you these days!

I love the St. Leger, not only as a test of stamina but as a test of a horse's bravery–they have to be tough to win it. It produces horses that go on and mature, having longevity, which is great for the sport and audience participation.

Best wishes,

Neil Graham
(Trainer of the 1988 St Leger winner Minster Son, now director of racing at Chelmsford City Racecourse)

Shortening Classic races, doping, railing against HISA, the US (more than any other nation, in my opinion) clinging to the ridiculous notion that fillies/mares can't compete with colts/geldings simply based on their gender–so many things sadden me in regards to racing these days.

I don't want any races shortened. If anything, I'd like to see some lengthened. This is especially pertinent in the US where many 'Classic' filly and mare races are shorter even than their male counterparts. I'd love to see both the Kentucky Oaks and Breeders' Cup Distaff (just to name two) go back to being 1 1/4 races.

One of the brightest spots (again, in my opinion) is Japan. They keep showing the rest of the world what proper breeding and care can produce–and all drug free. They keep my faith and hope alive.

For me, the biggest light is the horse. Watching these beauties run (especially in the longer races) is what hooked me on the sport and keeps me coming back for more.

Jean B.

I read with interest your article of 8th March published in TDN.

This brought back memories because the question of the St Leger distance, and also if it should be open to older horses, was a much discussed question late 1970s and early 80s. In recent years I had just accepted the race as a NH stallion maker. Interestingly, I once read Tony Morris suggesting his love of thoroughbred breeding may not have developed if this had been the case in his earlier years.

I was always horrified by any thoughts of lowering the distance of the St Leger. However, I was never certain my argument was based on anything but being a traditionalist. Although Peter Willett's argument is sound from a British breeding perspective, the move from the perception I had had in the 1970s that Australian racing was stamina laden to the current sprint-dominated racing and breeding seems to have worked in extreme and ultimately to, what Australians would consider, the detriment of their more prestigious races.

The other point of interest in your article was why a picture of The Minstrel should be on the copy of a June 1980 copy of Pacemaker. The indexing of my literature clearly works better than I thought and note it was a Richard Stone Reeves painting. Incidentally, on the changing face of racing, note the advert for Moyglare Stud selling a draft of yearlings at Keeneland (and they also sold in Europe as I recall).

Kind Regards,

Neville Sibley

EB replies: Yes, indeed, The Minstrel portrait was in regard to the publication of 'Decade of Champions' by Richard Stone Reeves and Patrick Robinson, a really special book.

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