Month: February 2023

This Saturday's $1 million Grade 2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park drew a full field of 12 vying to get into the top 10 on the “Road to the Derby” points list with the 50 points awarded to the winner, also with an eye to the all-important Arkansas Derby on April 1.

Leading the field in points earned to date with 17 is Red Route One, who finished second in his first race of the year, the G3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn, bringing his total to 13 points. Frosted Departure finished two lengths further behind Red Route One when third in the Southwest to earn six points. Recent Lecomte third Confidence Game hopes to improve and add to his total to date of seven points. Verifying finished second in the G1 Champagne Stakes last October in only the second start of his career (to earn four points) before a sixth place finish in the G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile, then returned for an easy win last month.

Another recent top performer in a stakes race is Reincarnate, who has been transferred from Bob Baffert's barn to trainer Tim Yakteen after the colt won the G3 Sham Stakes but did not earn any points because of Baffert's Churchill Downs suspension. Similarly, Giant Mischief rallied from last of nine to gain second in the Springboard Mile Stakes when last seen in December but didn't garner any points because he raced on Lasix.

Powerful won the Ed Brown Society Stakes, a sprint race, when last seen near the end of September and is trying two turns for the first time. Gun Pilot, who just won an allowance level race three weeks ago at Oaklawn, is one of three horses trained by Steve Asmussen (Powerful and Red Route One are the others), who recently became the first trainer in history to reach the milestone of 10,000 career wins in North America. Bourbon Bash was second in that race and third in the Renaissance Stakes prior to that.

Two horses – Event Detail and Talladega – recently earned their first wins and step up into graded stakes for the first time but both have exceptional breeding and should be considered contenders in this very deep and talented field.

Main win contenders:

Although with just a maiden win to his credit, Event Detail has a lot of factors on his side coming into this year's Rebel Stakes. He is sired by 2018 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile winner City of Light, who has his first crop of 3-year-olds racing this year and has produced 13 different winning horses from just 45 to hit the track to date, including three stakes winners. Perhaps better than that, the colt's dam is a daughter of tremendous sire Into Mischief out of a mare by Seattle Dancer, a half-brother to champion Seattle Slew who sired 37 stakes winners. Of course pedigree is meaningless until a horse proves itself on the track, which this colt has done. Entered in nothing more than a sprint prep in his debut, Event Detail finished sixth, but when sent two turns for the first time he rallied impressively from 11th of 12 in the early stages to finish second. The 98 Equibase® Speed Figure earned at the time (on Jan. 1) was strong, compared to the same figure Red Route One earned when second in the Southwest Stakes four weeks later and the 103 figure Sham Stakes winner Reincarnate earned one week later. Event Detail showed physical and mental improvement four weeks after that when winning easily by nearly three lengths, improving to a 99 figure which could have been higher. Having saved something for this race, and in the hands of trainer Paulo Lobo, who won nearly 25 percent of his races in 2022, Event Detail could show a new dimension and post the upset win as he will be fairly ignored by many bettors given he is moving from a maiden race into this Grade 2 stakes.

Verifying showed he belongs with the best in his division last fall, when in only the second start of his career he rallied to lead late in the Champagne Stakes before settling for second. That effort earned a 92 figure which was pretty strong for a 2-year-old at that time of year. Five weeks later the colt didn't run nearly as well when sixth of 10 in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, but he apparently matured both physically and mentally over the early winter because his return to the races last month was notable. In that two-turn race at Oaklawn, likely with the Rebel Stakes in mind, Verifying stalked the pacesetter for the first three-quarters of a mile then took over with ease, kicking clear by 5 1/4 lengths. The 102 figure earned stacks up nicely with the field-high 103 last race figure earned by Reincarnate when winning the Sham Stakes six days earlier and is likely to be bettered given Verifying is making his second start of the year. Also notable is his pedigree as he is by Triple Crown winner Justify, out of the mare Dive Delite, making him a half-brother to champion Midnight Bisou, who earned $7.4 million and who had a fantastic campaign as a 3-year-old in 2018 when winning the Santa Anita Oaks and finishing third in the Kentucky Oaks.

Reincarnate broke his maiden on Nov. 25 in his second two-turn race on dirt, earning a 95 figure, which he bettered significantly winning the Sham Stakes on Jan. 8, earning a career-best and field high last race 103 figure. This colt also has tremendous breeding to be on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, as he is from the first 3-year-old crop of Good Magic, who won the 2018 Blue Grass Stakes before a runner-up effort in the Derby that year. Good Magic also won the Haskell Invitational Stakes that summer and so far, among his eight foals to race in stakes, four have won including Reincarnate. Looking at the pattern of improving figures, from 87 to 90 to 92 to 95 to 103, it is logical to conclude Reincarnate can continue to improve and may be a strong factor in this year's Rebel Stakes.

Giant Mischief has to get honorable mention in my opinion. He has two wins and one runner-up effort in three races to date and he's a son of tremendous sire Into Mischief. His trainer is Brad Cox, who also trains Verifying and who saddled Angel of Empire to win the Risen Star Stakes last week. In only the second start of his career last November, Giant Mischief earned a field high 105 figure when winning a seven furlong race in tenacious fashion. Following that he rallied mid-race from ninth to get within a neck of the lead in the two-turn Springboard Mile, running fairly evenly thereafter but still second at the end in a fine effort (with a 98 figure) which portends good things in his 3-year-old campaign.

Another horse which could be a contender is Red Route One, who rallied strongly from last of eight to finish second to a horse in Arabian Knight who could not be caught in the late stages of the Southwest Stakes last month. In doing so the colt earned a career best 98 figure and could improve off that effort in his second start as a 3-year-old.

The rest of the field, with their best representative Equibase® Speed Figures, is Bourbon Bash (90), Confidence Game (97), Frosted Departure (94), Gun Pilot (93), Powerful (83), and Talladega (89).

Win Contenders:
Event Detail
Verifying
Giant Mischief

Rebel Stakes – Grade 2
Race 11 at Oaklawn Park
Saturday, February 25 – Post Time 6:23 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Sixteenth
Three Year Olds
Purse: $1 Million

The post Equibase Analysis: Maiden Winner Event Detail Holds Strong Upset Chance In Wide Open Rebel appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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