This Saturday's Grade 2, $400,000 Risen Star Stakes at the Fair Grounds is the first of 16 Road to the Derby Championship Series races offering 50 or more points to the winner, which will likely enable that horse's connections to choose to enter the starting gate for the Kentucky Derby in just under three months. Points are also awarded down to fifth place, particularly important to horses which are just getting started on the Derby Trail this year.
Leading the 14 horse field in terms of accomplishments are a trio of stakes winners in Curly Jack, Two Phil's, and Victory Formation, but all three get potentially disadvantageous outside post positions in this big field. Curly Jack, who makes his first start as a 3-year-old, won the G3 Iroquois Stakes in September and was runner-up behind division leader Instant Coffee in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at the end of November. Two Phil's won the G3 Street Sense Stakes in October and finished second to Instant Coffee last month in the G3 Lecomte Stakes. Victory Formation is undefeated in three races including the Smarty Jones Stakes on New Year's Day, in which Angel of Empire finished second.
Then there's Private Creed, who is trying dirt for the first time in the seventh start of his career but who has never been worse than third to date including the G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint. Determinedly finished third in the Gun Runner Stakes in late December before a game neck victory over the track four weeks ago in a highly rated race where Tapit's Conquest and Silver Heist finished close behind in second and third, respectively. Harlocap is another who could improve to compete at this level as he easily won a race in California last month and now moves to the barn of Steve Asmussen.
Crupi might be interesting to some as he has yet to earn a win in five races, but not only did he miss by a head in his most recent race, which came following two months off, he is the only entrant in the race trained by Todd Pletcher, whose Litigate won the Sam F. Davis Stakes last weekend. Sun Thunder may improve off his fourth place effort in the G2 Southwest Stakes on Jan. 28, run on a sloppy track. Trainer Keith Desormeaux, who 10 years ago saddled Ive Struck a Nerve to victory in this race, paying $272 for a $2 bet, saddles last out maiden winner Single Ruler. Shaq Diesel and Quiet as Midnight round out the field.
Top win contenders:
Tapit's Conquest has yet to run in a stakes but appears to have the most potential to improve and make his mark in the division. Starting his career last summer at Saratoga in a sprint, the colt improved markedly when trying two turns in his second start, opening up by four lengths in the stretch and coasting home in a field of 10. Rested over two months, Tapit's Conquest made his 3-year-old debut four weeks ago on Jan. 1 at Fair Grounds over a mile and one-sixteenth. In spite of being away for a long time, Tapit's Conquest rallied from fifth to miss by a neck on the wire. The winner was Determinedly, who had run much more recently and who was ahead by three lengths with an eighth of a mile to run. Tapit's Conquest should run much better in his second start off a layoff and second as a 3-year-old, and we can expect him to take another big step forward off the career-best 98 
Equibase® Speed Figure earned in that race. With the exception of the 99 figure Private Creed earned on turf last month when second in the Texas Turf Mile Stakes, the figures Determinedly and Tapit's Conquest earned are the highest dirt figures in the field. Considering Tapit's Conquest should improve off his last effort and that the colt put in a very sharp fourth best of 62 five furlong workout coming into this race, he gets top billing to win this year's Risen Star Stakes.
Two Phil's is also making his second start as a 3-year-old and that could give him an edge over horses which either have not run this year or those which have run more than once this year. After a poor seventh place effort in the Breeders' Futurity last October, also his first try around two turns, Two Phil's proved his belongs in the division with a decisive five length win in the Street Sense Stakes three week later, earning a career best 93 figure. Rested almost three months, Two Phil's returned in the Lecomte Stakes, the same race 2022 Kentucky Jockey Club winner Instant Coffee made his sophomore debut in. After rallying from fifth to get within a head of the lead at the top of the stretch, Two Phil's was no match for Instant Coffee and ended up second, beaten two and one-half lengths but more importantly was five and one-quarter lengths ahead of the third horse. Earning a new career-best 95 figure for that effort, Two Phil's also has tremendous upside for improvement in his second start off the layoff and every right to run well enough to win.
Silver Heist has potential to post the upset in this race as he will be ignored by bettors favoring horses with stakes experience, or just more experience in general. The colt is making only the third start of his career and is the most lightly raced entrant in the field. On the other hand he's a son of Tapit (also the sire of Tapit's Conquest), who has sired a high number of top 3-year-olds the past few years. He's also one of three trained by Steve Asmussen (the other two being Harlocap and Private Creed). Silver Heist was making only the second start of his career and first start in a route last month in the race won by Determinedly and in which Tapit's Conquest finished second, and he was only one length behind the winner. The 96 figure earned was pretty strong and logically can be improved upon in his second route and third start. Better still he put in a :59.4 five-furlong workout in preparation for the race which was the best of the day at the distance.
Determinedly won that race at Fair Grounds last month leading from start to finish with a 98 figure which would be competitive in the Risen Star if repeated, but he has also won from off the pace as well as he did two races before that. In between those two efforts came a third place finish as the odds-on favorite in the Gun Runner Stakes at Fair Grounds so it may be more difficult to predict a repeat of his last effort, particularly as jockey Luis Saez, who rode Determinedly in his last four races, gets off to ride Angel of Empire. Nevertheless, I would not argue with anyone who believes he can win.
Victory Formation has to be mentioned as win contender if for no other reason than he's undefeated in three starts. He's also one of three from the formidable Brad Cox barn (the other two being Tapit's Conquest and Angel of Empire). Stretching out to two turns for the first time in the Smarty Jones Stakes to start the year, Victory Formation led every step of the way, widening to a three length margin which could have been more as he was ridden out in the late stages. As such, the 97 figure Victory Formation earned can be improved upon. Although leading from start to finish in the Smarty Jones, the colt showed he could win from off the pace prior to that when stalking in second in the early stages and the win last time out came from the outside in a field of eight. However, the 13 post he may break from in this field is a bit more problematic so I am not sure he can repeat those efforts. It must be noted Cox saddled Mandaloun to win this race in 2021 on a very similar pattern to Victory Formation so he can't be ruled out as a win contender in this very deep and contentious field.
The rest of the field, with their best representative Equibase® Speed Figures, is Angel of Empire (92), Curly Jack (91), Crupi (99), Harlocap (97), Private Creed (115 on turf), Quiet as Midnight (65), Shaq Diesel (84), Single Ruler (92) and Sun Thunder (92).
Win Contenders, in preference order:
Tapit's Conquest
Two Phil's
Silver Heist
Determinedly
Victory Formation
Risen Star Stakes presented by Lamarque Ford – Grade 2
Race 13 at Fair Grounds
Saturday, February 18 – Post Time 7:14 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Eighth
Three Year Olds
Purse: $400,000
The post Equibase Analysis: Tapit’s Conquest, ‘Other Brad Cox,’ Rates On Top Of 14-Strong Risen Star appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.
