Eight newly-turned 3-year-olds have been entered in Saturday's $150,000 Jerome Stakes, in which the top five finishers earn points in the Road to the Kentucky Derby system (10–4–3–2–1).
In terms of recent efforts at the highest level, we start with Arctic Arrogance, who finished second last month in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes after winning the state restricted Sleepy Hollow Stakes in October. General Banker is another horse who has run well recently in stakes, having won the New York Stallion Series Stakes easily by 8 1/2 lengths last month. Andiamo a Firenze finished second, beaten by a nose, in the New York Breeders' Futurity Stakes when last seen in mid-October and hopes to duplicate the feat of his half-brother, Firenze Fire, who won this race in 2018.
Then there's Lugan Knight, who won one race back in his second career start, then finished third in a highly rated race near the end of November. Circling the Drain, Narciso Dali, and Neural Network all hope to step up off maiden wins and compete at this tougher level, as does Valenzan Day, who won by eight lengths in his most recent start and was claimed for $50,000 out of that race by top trainer Linda Rice, who also saddles Arctic Arrogance.
Top contenders:
Lugan Knight has run in three one-turn races to date, not much different than this one-turn mile trip at Aqueduct, finishing in-the-money in all three races. The best of the three came in his most recent start on Nov. 26 when, although third, Lugan Knight earned a career-best 93
Equibase Speed Figure. Not only that, but he did so behind Victory Formation who is still unbeaten in three races, including the Smarty Jones Stakes on New Year's Day, a Road to the Kentucky Derby points race just like the Jerome. Victory Formation improved by six points over his previous effort, which suggests Lugan Knight will be in the 99 to 100 speed figure range with his effort in the Jerome; that should be good enough to win.
General Banker has won or placed in four of eight races, including two of four one-turn races on dirt. Better still, since adding blinkers in October, General Banker has improved his Equibase figures in three straight races, from 86 in October to 93 in November to a career-best 103 figure last month when winning the New York Stallion Series Stakes by eight lengths. That race was run at seven furlongs at Aqueduct and I expect General Banker to run as well or better running one furlong further in this event.
Arctic Arrogance is likely to be the betting favorite in this year's Jerome Stakes, because he finished second of seven last month in the higher level Remsen Stakes over the track. Taking the lead from the start in that mile and one-eighth race, Arctic Arrogance was in front at the mile mark, the point at which the Jerome ends, and battled gamely to the wire to be beaten just one-half length while 1 1/2 lengths ahead of the third horse. Arctic Arrogance is also an improving type, having earned an 85 figure near the end of September, then improving to 90 in October and finally to a career-best 100 figure last month. The only knock I can find is the colt has showed only a need-the-lead style in all four of his career races to date. That could prove problematic considering Narciso Dali led from start to finish in his most recent race, as did Circling the Drain, and Valenzan Day as well as Andiamo a Firenze have also done their best when leading early or very close to the front.
The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Andiamo a Firenze (87), Circling the Drain (81), Narciso Doll (91), Neural Network (85) and Valenzan Day (93).
Win contenders, in preference/probability order:
Lugan Knight
General Banker
Arctic Arrogance
Jerome Stakes
Race 8 at Aqueduct
Saturday, January 7, 2023 – Post Time 3:16 PM E.T.
One Mile
Three Year Olds
Purse: $150,000
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