November, 2022 | Horse Racing Free Tips

Equibase Analysis: Can Flightline Catch Life Is Good In The Classic?

The 39th running of the Grade 1, $6 million Breeders' Cup Classic may be talked about for years if the top contenders repeat their best efforts to date, with six of the eight horses entering the race off wins at the top level. None was more impressive than the undefeated Flightline, a lightly raced colt who won the Grade 1 Pacific Classic Stakes this summer in effortless fashion by 19 1/4 lengths.

Last year's Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile winner Life Is Good has only lost twice in 11 races, most recently the Grade 1 Woodward Stakes, and in all nine wins has been unchallenged when leading from start to finish. Then there's Taiba, with five career races under his belt – the same as Flightline – including a win in the Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby in his most recent race. Olympiad has won eight of 12 career starts including the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup at the distance of the Breeders' Cup Classic on the same day Flightline won the Pacific Classic.

Last year's Classic fourth-place finisher, Hot Rod Charlie, has proven more mature and stronger in 2022, including when winning the Grade 2 Lukas Classic Stakes five weeks ago. In that race, Hot Rod Charlie defeated Rich Strike by a head at the finish. Rich Strike had posted the 80-1 upset in the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby in May before two poorer efforts, then rebounded to nearly earn his second graded stakes win of the year in the Lukas Classic. Epicenter led late in the stretch in the Derby before being passed by Rich Strike and has won two important races since then including the Grade 1 Travers Stakes. Happy Saver completes the field and has been very consistent in his career as well with five wins and five runner-up finishes in 12 lifetime starts. He won the 2021 Jockey Club Gold Cup and this year has finished second to three other Classic entrants, behind Olympiad in the Grade 2 Alysheba Stakes, behind Flightline in the Grade 1 Metropolitan Handicap and behind Life Is Good in the Grade 1 Whitney Stakes.

Analysis and main win contenders

An adage in horse racing states “speed is the ultimate bias” and that is why Life Is Good appears to have a slight edge over the ultra-talented Flightline in this year's Breeders' Cup Classic. It also doesn't hurt that Life Is Good has morning line odds of 6-1 compared to 3-5 for Flightline, so he offers better returns for a win bet. In terms of sheer overall ability, the career-best 125 Equibase Speed Figure Life Is Good earned when winning the Whitney Stakes in August and the 123 figure in the Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes this past January stack up against the 128 figure Flightline earned winning the Pacific Classic in September and the 126 figure earned when winning the Malibu Stakes last December.

Then, there's the likely pace scenario which suggests Life Is Good will have the early lead as he has post position two in the gate and is drawn inside Flightline, who will be breaking from post position four. This allows Irad Ortiz, Jr. on Life Is Good to control the pace for as long as possible, and considering that in each of his six career wins in two-turn races Life Is Good led from start to finish, he has proven to be the kind of athlete that refuses to let another horse pass him. There are also no doubts in my mind Life Is Good can run as well at the Classic distance of 1 1/4 miles as he has run at shorter distances, as his sire Into Mischief produced 2020 Breeders' Cup Classic winner Authentic. Trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. teamed up to win the 2019 Classic with Vino Rosso and I think they might get their second recent win in the Classic with Life Is Good if the colt gets on the front end and into a steady stride just as he did when winning the 2021 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile.

Flightline is undefeated and untested in five career starts. He has had layoffs of around four months twice and five months between races before his most recent three-month layoff prior to winning the Pacific Classic, but when he does come onto the track for a race he's all business and then some. Prior to the Pacific Classic, there was also a question as to whether Flightline could run as well around two-turns as he had in his first four races, all around one turn. That question was put to rest with his performance in the Pacific Classic, when he went from a half-length behind the leader after a half-mile to 10 lengths in front another quarter mile later, before easing down at the wire to a 19 1/4-length triumph with a 128 figure.

Resuming training at the end of that month, Flightline has put in some superb morning drills, including one at Keeneland last week which was the fourth best of 62 on the day. Likely to be in second position behind Life Is Good shortly after the start, the biggest questions regarding Flightline winning this year's Breeders' Cup Classic are whether his Pacific Classic effort was an outlier, and whether he, or any other horse in the field, can pass Life Is Good if that one gets his way alone on the front end.

Olympiad certainly can't be ignored as a contender to win this year's Breeders' Cup Classic as he has won eight of 12 races and earned over $2 million to date. Putting aside his loss when fourth behind Life Is Good in the Whitney Stakes in August, Olympiad has won all his other six starts this year including the Jockey Club Gold Cup in September, at the distance of the Classic. In the Stephen Foster Stakes in July, Olympiad earned a career-best 123 figure within hailing distance of the 125 and 128 best figures earned by Life Is Good and by Flightline, respectively. Always close to the pace in the early stages, Olympiad demonstrates over and over he understands when to pick up the pace when jockey Junior Alvarado asks him and then the colt doggedly wears down the horses in front of him to win. Although it may seem the early speed of Life Is Good may be hard to beat as well as the tremendous athleticism of Flightline, Olympiad may be the fighter who comes out on top in this skirmish to post the upset (10-1 odds on the morning line) in this year's Breeders' Cup Classic.

Comments on the rest, none of which would be a total surprise if winning this race:

Taiba was unseasoned when entering the gate for this year's Kentucky Derby, having run just twice, and he showed it when facing 19 other horses and finishing 12th. Maturing quickly after nearly three months off, he returned for a game second-place effort by a head behind Cyberknife in the Haskell Stakes in July with a 104 figure before an even better effort defeating Derby third-place finisher Zandon, as well as Cyberknife, to win the Pennsylvania Derby with a 114 figure. Even projecting another 10 point improvement to a 124 figure, seeing that last year's Pennsylvania Derby winner, Hot Rod Charlie, only managed a fourth-place finish in the 2021 Classic, I believe Taiba is a cut below the best in this field.

Happy Saver may not win, but he could be this year's Effinex and finish second at high odds. If you don't recall, Effinex ran second from start to finish in the 2015 Classic behind American Pharoah at high odds and I think Happy Saver may do the same thing, although not while running second from start to finish but more likely rallying from fifth or fourth. He opens at 30-1 and considering he has finished second three times in four starts this year, behind Olympiad, Flightline and Life is Good, that prospect is not out of the question. The effort in the Whitney behind Life Is Good resulted in a career-best 122 figure and considering Happy Saver has never finished worse than third in three tries at this Classic distance, he is a very interesting long shot in this field.

Hot Rod Charlie is about as game of a horse as I've seen in a long time as he always shows up and fights as hard as he can for the win. Still, his best efforts have come in Grade 2 and Grade 3 races this year, and although he finished a head behind Happy Saver when third in the Whitney, that effort earning a 122 figure, his other races in North America this year earned 118 and 107 figures which don't appear competitive with the top three contenders if repeated.

Epicenter is yet another proving this year's Classic consists of one of the best fields in memory. He has finished first or second in nine of 10 career races and is approaching $3 million in earnings. A 3-year-old just like Taiba and Rich Strike, Epicenter has done little wrong in his own division, but this is a whole new ballgame facing older horses for the first time. He ran fantastically well when second in both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, earning 105 and 102 figures. Then maturing physically as a 3-year-old does in the late summer, Epicenter earned a 111 figure winning the Jim Dandy Stakes and nearly the same figure (110) winning the Travers Stakes at the distance of the Classic. However, there's no discernible pattern showing the improvement necessary to get to the 120 or higher figure level any of the top three contenders have proven capable of, and although I love his moxie, Epicenter also appears to be a cut below the best in this field.

Rich Strike provided the earthquake sports fans love with an underdog win in the Kentucky Derby this year at odds of 80-1. About as improbable as his winning was his running in the race, as only a last-minute scratch allowed him to move in from the also-eligible list. That effort earned the colt a career-best 106 figure. Following a poor sixth place finish in the Belmont Stakes in June, following nearly three months off the colt, like others, started to mature physically and mentally. Two races later Rich Strike got back to his Derby form when beaten a head in the Lukas Classic Stakes, coming up a head shy of Hot Rod Charlie. Although the 107 figure is well short of the other seven entrants in this race, Rich Strike is on a pattern for improvement in his third start off a layoff and with his fast finishing style could provide some thrills in this year's Classic.

Win contenders in preference order

Life Is Good

Flightline

Olympiad

You can get Ellis' full card detailed analysis and betting recommendations for all the races at Keeneland on Breeders' Cup Weekend (Friday 11/6 and Saturday 11/7), at Equibase.com

Longines Breeders' Cup Classic – Grade 1
Race 11 at Keeneland
Saturday, November 5 – Post Time 5:40 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Quarter
For 3-Year-Olds and Upward
Purse: $6 Million
TV: NBC 3:30 – 6 PM ET

Ellis Starr is national racing analyst for Equibase

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Beckett Hopes To Crown Record Season In Style

LEXINGTON, KY — Though introducing no fissure of light into the bruised grey sky hanging over Keeneland, daybreak on Wednesday nonetheless spread an array of crimson and saffron, dazzling as any sunrise, into the trees peering over the rituals of training track and shed row. And for those supervising one horse in particular, it felt especially apt that a final, lingering blaze of autumn glory should be preserved against the fading of the year.

For if he could win the GI FanDuel Breeders' Cup Mile here on Saturday, Kinross (GB) (Kingman {GB}) would not only extend to a quite remarkable climax to his own spree of improvement through 2022; he would also set a corresponding seal on a landmark season in the career of his trainer.

Last year, Ralph Beckett posted his best haul yet, in domestic prizemoney, at £1.94 million. This time round, his Kimpton Down team have not just consolidated but smashed their way to £2.74 million already. Contributors include four Group 1 winners, and their diversity attests to a versatility that Beckett, during his rise, was not always given adequate opportunity to measure. While he has reiterated his mastery with a homebred Classic colt in Westover (GB) (Frankel {GB}), he has also saddled the winners of two elite sprints.

One of those is Kinross himself, whose autumn schedule–he's seeking a third Group/Grade I success in five weeks–is not just bewildering local horsemen, with their collective neurosis about spacing out races. It's also allowing Beckett to show equal flair in a very different discipline to the type in which he largely made his name.

There were times when he would be sent fillies at a ratio approaching two-in-three, many of them requiring patience and distance. Here, in contrast, is a gelded dasher who has thrived on a timetable so hectic that Beckett even permits himself comparisons with a couple of indefatigable sprint handicappers of a generation ago: Chaplins Club (Parade Of Stars) and Glencroft (GB) (Crofter).

“It's slightly shades of those David Chapman horses,” he says. “Those guys who were really good at it, Dandy Nicholls was another, I never really worked out how they got it so right. But really all they were doing was just going with the horse. And that's rather what we're trying with Kinross: just not to stand in his way. I think it was David Elsworth who said, 'At a mile or less, it's all about wellbeing.' And that feels like a good way or looking at it, particularly with an older horse like this one.”

To a degree, in fact, the art of training can in these cases sooner become the art of not training. It's about restraint, about going from race to race as though you were lighting one candle with another. The growing weight of accumulated starts inevitably tugs at the thread, and Beckett and his team just have to stop it fraying.

“He just hacked a couple of laps of the training track this morning, and that's all we'll do with him,” Beckett explains. “He's not a horse you ever want to do much with, never mind need to. He trains himself really. These older horses, going out in the mornings, they really know their own way around. He's enjoying life out here. But by Friday he'll know exactly what he's going to be doing, how many laps he's going to go.”

It's important, then, to ensure that horses find their regime to be congenial. Because that's one of the few doors through which a trainer can offer a horse something as elusive, but critical, as confidence. A year ago, Kinross was beaten in both the the G1 Prix de la Foret and the G1 QIPCO British Champions Sprint after travelling powerfully but running out of track and/or time. As a fully rounded professional, aged five, he has won both with the same mechanical efficiency as he had previously two races in the tier below.

“I think there are always layers, it's always a sum of parts,” Beckett reflects. “The jockey understanding him, the way he does now, is definitely relevant. Frankie [Dettori] is not afraid to sit closer to the pace now. But I do think confidence is a big thing with this horse as well. It's just grown and grown as he's got older. It's a hard thing to nail down, but it's definitely part of your role, particularly with an older horse, to make sure they're happy what they're doing.”

This race will be a whole different ball game for Kinross, spinning round the dizzy bends of the inner track while going back up in trip. Things are complicated by a tiresome draw, 13 of 14, but there's definitely a scenario in which the environment will appeal to the horse's zesty style.

“And that's key,” Beckett says. “He's pretty straightforward, a horse you could put just about anywhere, he's like a scooter. So yes, it's a tough draw but I don't see it as the end of the world. Frankie will just have to deal with it. And I'm not concerned about the mile at all, particularly given the nature of Keeneland. Whether he handles that or not is another question, but I don't think trip will be an issue. Nor would I have any concerns about the ground, it was quick when he won the [G2] City of York S.”

Asked to assess his stellar campaign, Beckett stresses one thing immediately. “It's been great fun,” he says. “I've really enjoyed it. There have been setbacks, too, but that's inevitable. When Scope (Ire) (Teofilo {Ire}) broke a hindleg, that was obviously a huge blow–we didn't run at Ascot because it was too fast, and then for that to happen… Especially when you consider how few miles he had on the clock. But everything else has been great.

“Prosperous Voyage (Ire) (Zoffany {Ire}) we only ran because it was the right race [G1 Falmouth S.], not because we thought we could win. Lezoo (GB) (Zoustar {Aus}) hid her light under a bushel at home, so to get there [G1 Cheveley Park S.] with her was extraordinary. And Westover [G1 Irish Derby] was hugely satisfying. The King George was obviously a disaster, and there's always a certain pressure when they go west like that, and you have to get them all the way round again, so we were very pleased with his run in the Arc. He's probably going to for the G1 Sheema Classic, that looks a good fit for him and he'll enjoy it, I think. He's a big, tall, long horse, so you would think he might [keep developing] but that's always easy to say and we'll just have to see.”

Westover, of course, had excruciating luck in running at Epsom and that kind of thing will never cease to haunt any red-blooded horseman. But Beckett is gracious in his reflections.

“I mean, of course it was tough on everybody at the time,” he says. “But I don't think any of us thought we'd have beaten winner. It was just not getting the chance to see, that was the crux of it. And, of course, whether it'll ever happen again? It's easy to be blase about these things but horses like that are hard to come by.”

But while one can hardly invite him to comment, a personal reflection is that Beckett is now one of the handful of trainers in Britain whose eligibility for an elite yearling of absolutely any kind is proven beyond doubt. Standing 10th in the trainers' championship, he has had fewer runners than all those above him bar Sir Michael Stoute and Aidan O'Brien. He is now at that optimal stage where, though still much younger than doyens of the previous generation, he has accumulated masses of experience. Far too classy ever to hustle for business, he knows that a certain clientele are inevitably drawn to the tranquillity and independence of his facilities–and, as it happens, these also tend to be just the type of people he likes training for.

Nonetheless it's gratifying for Beckett to have preconceptions so thoroughly corrected. Juddmonte, in sending him yearlings in 2015, made him their first new trainer in a decade: and they have been rewarded for giving him opportunities across the spectrum.

Ironically, given the way Beckett has had to fight to avoid becoming a victim of his own success, the gelding he has brought to the Bluegrass actually conforms to the original brand: he was homebred by one of his most longstanding clients, Julian Richmond-Watson. (And started out in his silks before being transferred to another of the stable's patrons, Marc Chan, at the beginning of last year.)

“I trained the dam, the sisters, the dam's sisters, the whole shooting match,” Beckett remarks. “So to be able to show up here with him is a big deal. It's easy to forget that, if you get too caught up in it. Whatever happens on Saturday, when we look back in years to come I hope we reflect how blessed we were that everything worked out the way it has.”

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Weekly Stewards & Commissions Rulings, Oct. 25-31

Every week, the TDN publishes a roundup of key official rulings from the primary tracks within the four major racing jurisdictions of California, New York, Florida and Kentucky.

Here's a primer on how each of these jurisdictions adjudicates different offenses, what they make public (or not) and where.

With the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Act (HISA) having gone into effect on July 1, the TDN will also post a roundup of the relevant HISA-related rulings from the same week.

New York

Track: Aqueduct
Date: 10/29/2022
Licensee: Caitlin Owen, racing official
Penalty: $500 fine
Violation: Failure to administer Lasix in time as scheduled
Explainer: You have been fined the sum of $500 dollars for failing to tend to business in a proper manner necessitating a late scratch in the 4th race at Aqueduct Racetrack on October 28th 2022.

The TDN asked both the New York State Gaming Commission and the New York Racing Association (NYRA) to elaborate on the details of the above ruling. A Gaming Commission spokesperson wrote, “At this time we have no further details beyond what is publicly available.”

NYRA spokesperson, Pat McKenna, explained that Owen is a NYRA-employed regulatory veterinarian who failed to administer Lasix in time as scheduled, which necessitated the horse, Miss Bonnie T, to be scratched

NEW HISA STEWARDS RULINGS

Note: While HISA has shared these rulings over the past week, some of them originate from prior weeks.

Violations of Crop Rule

Aqueduct
Joe Rafael Rohena – ruling date Oct. 23, 2022
Jorge Gustavo Ruiz – ruling date Oct. 30, 2022

Charles Town Races and Slots
Alexis Rios-Condre – ruling date Oct. 1, 2022
Arnaldo (Orlando) Bocachica – ruling date Oct. 29, 2022

Finger Lakes
John Ramon Davila – ruling date Oct. 26, 2022

Fresno
Cristobal Herrera – ruling date Oct. 8, 2022
Francisco Monroy – ruling date Oct. 21, 2022

Golden Gate Fields
Welfin Ruany Orantes – ruling date Oct. 22, 2022
Ruany W. Orantes – ruling date Oct. 23, 2022

Gulfstream Park
David Boraco – ruling date Oct. 26, 2022
Jose Morelos – ruling date Oct. 26, 2022
Franklin Gonzalez, Jr. – ruling date Oct. 26, 2022

Hawthorne
Elvin Gonzalez – ruling date Oct. 30, 2022
Victor Santiago – ruling date Oct. 30, 2022
Alvin Ortiz – ruling date Oct. 30, 2022

Keeneland
Jack Gilligan – ruling date Oct. 23, 2022
Francisco Arrieta – ruling date Oct. 29, 2022
Joel Rosario – ruling date Oct. 30, 2022
Jose Riquelme ruling date Oct. 30, 2022
Keith Asmussen – ruling date Oct. 29, 2022
Rafael Bejarano – ruling date Oct. 26, 2022 (race 7 on 10/22)
Rafael Bejarano – ruling date Oct. 26, 2022 (race 8 on 10/22)

Laurel Park
Xavier Perez – ruling date Oct. 9, 2022
Carlos Eduardo Lopez – ruling date Oct. 23, 2022

Mountaineer Park
Angel Diaz – ruling date Oct. 18, 2022
Eric Barbaran – ruling date Oct. 23, 2022
Marco Ccamaque – ruling date Oct. 31, 2022

Presque Isle Downs
Ronald Dale Allen, Jr. – ruling date Oct. 25, 2022

Remington Park
Richard Eramia – ruling date Oct. 28, 2022

Voided Claims
Gulfstream Park
The Great Kath – ruling date Oct. 22, 2022

Finger Lakes
Makeajoyfulnoise – ruling date Nov. 1, 202

Hawthorne
Two Worlds – ruling date Oct. 28, 2022

Keeneland
Derivative – ruling date Oct. 22, 2022
Tellmeonasunday – ruling date Oct. 23, 2022
Uptown Hustler – ruling date Oct. 26, 2022
Trappe Valley – ruling date Oct. 27, 2022

Mountaineer Park
Championship Alley – ruling date Oct. 30, 2022
Hard Frost – ruling date Oct. 31, 2022

Parx Racing
Congrats Answer – ruling date Oct. 24, 2022
Run White Rabbit – ruling date Oct. 26, 2022
Charlies Safari – ruling date Oct. 16, 2022

Penn National
Paranoia – ruling date Oct. 26, 2022
Whatruwaitingfor – ruling date Oct. 28, 2022

Violations Involving Forfeiture of Purse

Charles Town Races and Slots
Arnaldo (Orlando) Bocachica – excess strikes; $500 fine; 3-day suspension; purse redistribution

Appeal Request Updates

Mountaineer Park
Marco Ccamaque
Crop rule violation
Ruling date Oct. 31, 2022
Appeal Filed Nov. 1, 2022
Stay granted

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Caesars Racebook Launches On Android, Desktop Just In Time For Breeders’ Cup

Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (NASDAQ: CZR) (“Caesars”), and NYRA Bets LLC (“NYRA Bets”), the official online wagering platform of the New York Racing Association, Inc. (“NYRA”), today announced that the horse racing account wagering app, Caesars Racebook, is now available on Android and desktop. Horse racing fans in Kentucky, Florida, Ohio, Indiana, Oregon, Montana, and North Dakota can now enjoy expanded access to Caesars Racebook ahead of the 2022 Breeders' Cup.

“Expanding Caesars Racebook's access to Android users and desktop is key for the platform's continued growth,” said Dan Shapiro, Senior Vice President and Chief Development Officer of Caesars Digital. “We're excited to offer even more customers a horse racing wagering experience that treats them like royalty, no matter what type of device they prefer, thanks to the integration with our industry-leading Caesars Rewards loyalty program.”

Caesars Racebook utilizes the NYRA Bets platform providing customers with pari-mutuel wagering on premier horse racing content from more than 250 tracks around the world with betting on marquee tracks in the United States and internationally. In addition to the upcoming Breeders' Cup races at Keeneland, the wagering menu includes Aqueduct, Belmont Park, Saratoga Race Course, Gulfstream Park, Del Mar, and Santa Anita, as well as Caesars-operated tracks Harrah's Hoosier Park, Horseshoe Indianapolis, Harrah's Philadelphia, and Eldorado Gaming Scioto Downs.

In addition to the full horse racing wagering menu and livestreaming from racetracks around the world, Caesars Racebook provides a differentiated wagering experience that integrates the award-winning loyalty program, Caesars Rewards.

Now through the end of 2022, Caesars Racebook players will receive 4x the Racebook Points for every $1 wagered on races at Caesars Entertainment racetracks, with no opt-in required. Racebook Points can be redeemed for free wagering credits and past performances in the Caesars Racebook store. New Caesars Racebook customers can earn a first deposit match up to $300 ($500 in Ohio).

Caesars Racebook plans to continue to launch in additional states across the U.S., pending regulatory approvals, providing players with all the additional benefits of NYRA Bets, including race replays, handicapping insights, and more. NYRA Bets, the fastest-growing national advance deposit wagering platform features a secure, state-of-the-art wagering platform that allows its customers to conveniently and securely watch and wager on horse races.

As a longtime supporter of horse racing, Caesars recently announced plans to build and operate a Harrah's racetrack and casino in Columbus, Nebraska, and extended its hosting of the National Thoroughbred Racing Association's National Handicapping Championship at Horseshoe Las Vegas through 2026.

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