Robin Goodfellow’s racing tips: Best bets for Monday, October 31
Sportsmail's racing expert Robin Goodfellow delivers his tips for Monday's meetings at Wolverhampton, Kempton, Plumpton and Hereford.
Month: October 2022
Flightline: ‘One Of The Best In Our Lifetime’?
The Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) Nov. 5 at Keeneland could go a long way in answering a question on every racing aficionado's mind: Is the undefeated, untested Flightline the real deal or does he need to face tougher competition in order to join racing's elite hierarchy?
Beyond a doubt the $6-million Classic at a 1 1/4 miles will be the $1-million son of Tapit's definitive challenge in that race, which would be only his sixth start.
Flightline has never been strongly urged to run, only to gain a more advantageous position, and that but once in the Metropolitan Handicap (G1) June 5 at Belmont Park.
“He kind of got shut off a little bit in that race,” pointed out renowned private clocker and bloodstock agent Gary Young, “and coming down the stretch, he looked the closest to average I've ever seen. In every other race, he looked outer world.
“In the Met Mile, (Flavien) Prat had to work on him down the stretch. He was dominant, but he had to ask him, and in hindsight, Speaker's Corner who ran second hasn't really flattered him since (with a second in the Nerud, fourth in the Pat O'Brien and seventh in the Ack Ack in three subsequent starts).
“I fully expected Flightline to be the winner that day, but the Classic is a much, much better field than he has ever faced.
“If it is his last race (before being retired to stud), it's only fitting that he faces a field of this quality. Hypothetically, if he went to stud right now, he'd still command a lot of money and still be thought of as one of the best horses in the last 30 years.
“But the one knock everyone would say is, 'Who did he beat?' Between Life Is Good, Taiba, and Epicenter in the Classic, I think he's coming up against some pretty good horses.
“If he handles them as easily as he has other horses, he probably should go down as one of the best in our lifetime.
“Life Is Good's last win (by 1 ¼ lengths as the favorite at five cents on the dollar against three rivals in the Woodward [G1] Oct. 1) 'under steady urging' was not as impressive as many of his other wins, and instead of trying to rate him (in the Classic), I think they're going to let him run out of there a little more than they normally do.
“He and Flightline have always been a bit on the aggressive side, but I think Life Is Good would have his best chance if he went 46 and change (for the first half-mile), not :48, so I think they're going to let him bounce out of there.
“With all due respect to the other horses in the race, I think Flightline, Epicenter, and Taiba are the three most likely winners, because of how the race shapes up.
“I don't think Flightline is going to let Life Is Good get away. I think he's too much horse. The two most likely to come from off the pace would be the two 3-year-olds (Santa Anita Derby [G1] and Pennsylvania Derby [G1] winner Taiba and Travers [G1] winner Epicenter).
“I respect (Kentucky Derby [G1] winner) Rich Strike, I respect Hot Rod Charlie and Olympiad, but I think the two horses most likely to pick up the pieces would be the two top 3-year-olds.”
Young, 61, has a vested interest in Taiba, as he was instrumental in selecting the son of Gun Runner for Saudi Arabia businessman Amr Zadan, bringing the princely sum of $1.7 million as a 2-year-old. Taiba has won $1,236,200 to date.
“The horse never really lights it up in the morning,” Young said, alluding to his workouts, “but his work (Oct. 24, six furlongs in 1:11.40) was his best morning move ever, in my eyes.
“We'll see what happens with Flightline after the Classic. Financially, it makes sense that he'll go off to stud. They're already running ads on television. Gun Runner (his sire and two-time Horse of the Year) was good at three and great at four, and when we bought Taiba, (trainer Steve) Asmussen said he was the closest thing he ever saw to Gun Runner.
“Hopefully, he replicates what Gun Runner did. If Flightline goes off to stud like some of the others in the Classic, I think Taiba could battle with Epicenter to be the best horse in North America next year.”
The pre-entered Classic field in alphabetical order: Cyberknife, Epicenter, Flightline, Happy Saver, Hot Rod Charlie, Life Is Good, Olympiad, Rich Strike and Taiba.
The post Flightline: ‘One Of The Best In Our Lifetime’? appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.
Hard Spun’s Two Phil’s Too Tough In Street Sense
Patricia's Hope LLC and Phillip Sagan's Two Phil's (Hard Spun) stalked, pounced and pulled away to take Churchill's GIII Street Sense S. Sunday while flattering the form of a pair of GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile contenders. Fifth in his local unveiling June 23, the chestnut broke through next out at Colonial the following month. He resurfaced to crush by 9 3/4 lengths in Canterbury's Shakopee Juvenile S. Sept. 17, but could only manage seventh on the stretch out in Keeneland's GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity Oct. 8. 'TDN Rising Stars' Forte (Violence) and Loggins (Ghostzapper), who finished one-two in that event, are among the list of formidable colts set to take on expected favorite Cave Rock (Arrogate) in this coming Friday's Juvenile.
Off at 7-1 over a rain-soaked surface and as the money poured in on Jace's Road (Quality Road), Two Phil's broke cleanly and bounced off a rival in the first-turn scramble before being put in a perfect spot by Jareth Loveberry to draft behind a trio of leaders down the backside. He continued to cruise along comfortably through a half in :48.21, and mounted an outside bid around the home bend as 27-1 Hayes Strike (Connect) mirrored that move up the fence. Two Phil's strode to the front still under confident handling past the quarter pole, and was always in command from there despite struggling a bit with his lead changes. Hayes Strike checked in 5 1/4 lengths back to complete the exacta, with another clear margin back to slow-starting Fliparino (Honor Code) in third. Jace's Road dropped back on the far turn after attending the pace and finished well back. The winner's final time of 1:47.31 was a bit slower than the 1:46.90 in which impressive unbeaten female Hoosier Philly (Into Mischief) covered the same 1 1/16 miles of the Rags to Riches S., though plenty of additional precipitation had fallen in between the two races.
“He's shown a lot of maturity in his last couple of starts,” said Loveberry, who has been aboard Two Phil's in every start but his debut. “He's started learning a lot more and settling early into the race. He got a little bounced around today, but down the backside I got him to settle nicely and at the half-mile pole we were in a good position. I tipped him out a little bit and he showed me a lot of run. This is my first graded stakes win at Churchill Downs and I'm very excited and thankful to [trainer] Larry [Rivelli] and [Patricia's Hope principal] Vince [Foglia] for giving me this opportunity.”
Rivelli added, “He's been roughed around a couple times but Jareth has really figured him out. He gave him a great ride today and has worked with him in each start to get to mature. He's learned to relax and he's a solid, sound horse. He ran great today and we're thrilled with his potential.”
Sunday, Churchill Downs
STREET SENSE S.-GIII, $199,800, Churchill Downs, 10-30, 2yo, 1 1/16m, 1:47.31, sy.
1–TWO PHIL'S, 122, c, 2, by Hard Spun
1st Dam: Mia Torri (MSW & MGSP, $314,720), by General Quarters
2nd Dam: Flip the Stone, by Birdstone
3rd Dam: Flippy Diane, by Aaron's Concorde
1ST GRADED STAKES WIN. ($150,000 RNA Ylg '21 KEESEP). O-Patricia's Hope LLC and Phillip Sagan; B-Phillip Sagan (KY); T-Larry Rivelli; J-Jareth Loveberry. $118,350. Lifetime Record: 5-3-0-0, $195,450. Werk Nick Rating: A. Click for the eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree or free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree.
2–Hayes Strike, 122, c, 2, Connect–Plaid, by Deputy Commander. 1ST BLACK TYPE, 1ST GRADED BLACK TYPE. O/B-Dixiana Farms LLC (KY); T-Kenneth G. McPeek. $38,500.
3–Fliparino, 122, c, 2, Honor Code–Swap Fliparoo, by Exchange Rate. 1ST BLACK TYPE, 1ST GRADED BLACK TYPE. O/B-Calumet Farm (KY); T-George R. Arnold, II. $19,250.
Margins: 5 1/4, 3 3/4, 3/4. Odds: 7.62, 27.29, 8.65.
Also Ran: Top Recruit, Red Route One, Honed, Frosted Departure, Jace's Road, Boppy O, Western Ghent. Scratched: King Ice.
Click for the Equibase.com chart or the TJCIS.com PPs. VIDEO, sponsored by TVG.
Pedigree Notes:
Two Phil's becomes the 36th Northern Hemisphere graded/group winner for Darley stalwart Hard Spun, who was second in Street Sense's Gi Kentucky Derby win as part of that vintage 2007 crop. He is the first graded winner out of a mare by hard-knocking and versatile MGISW General Quarters.
The winner's dam was a MSW and MGSP sprinter for breeder and co-owner Philip Sagan and trainer Jorge Navarro. Two Phil's is her first foal. Her yearling colt by Omaha Beach RNA'd earlier in the week for $32,000 at Fasig-Tipton October. Next in the pipeline is a McKinzie colt. Mia Torri was bred back to Omaha Beach for 2023.
The post Hard Spun’s Two Phil’s Too Tough In Street Sense appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.
‘TDN Rising Star’ Pretty Mischievous Wins Second Straight At Churchill Downs
9th-Churchill Downs, $114,155, Alw (NW1X)/Opt. Clm ($100,000), 10-30, 2yo, f, 7f, 1:26.84, sy, 1 3/4 lengths.
PRETTY MISCHIEVOUS (f, 2, Into Mischief–Pretty City Dancer {GISW, $286,344}, by Tapit) was named a 'TDN Rising Star' off a 2 1/4-length winning performance on debut when sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs over this same track Sept. 18. Hammered into 1-5 favoritism for her first try against winners, Pretty Mischievous settled into a stalking position from fourth behind pacesetter Bluelightspecial (Super Saver). Given her head with three furlongs to run, she struck the front at the top of the stretch and edged clear gradually despite swapping back to her left lead and drifting in close to home. Bluelightspecial held on for second but was 1 3/4 lengths behind at the wire. Pretty City Dancer, herself a half-sister to GISW & MGISP Lear's Princess (Lear Fan) from the family of GISW & MGISP My Big Boy (Our Hero), produced a weanling filly by Medaglia d'Oro before visiting Street Sense for the 2023 season. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $141,960. Click for the Equibase.com chart or VIDEO, sponsored by TVG. O/B-Godolphin (KY); T-Brendan P. Walsh.
The post ‘TDN Rising Star’ Pretty Mischievous Wins Second Straight At Churchill Downs appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.
