Longshot Look Presented By Kentucky Downs: Finding Value On Thursday’s Opening Card

The Fanduel Meet at Kentucky Downs kicks off Thursday, Sept. 1., featuring some of the nation's largest purses and field sizes, and one of the most attractive wagering menus on the racing calendar. The Paulick Report is back with another season of Longshot Look to help you get the most out of one of North America's premier turf meets.

For each card of the seven-day meet, J.D. Fox will single out a price play with his reasoning for what makes the horse worth a look when they might go overlooked.

On Thursday's opening day card, Fox has his eye on a runner in Race 5, a 6 1/2-furlong allowance optional claiming race. J.D.'s pick returns to Kentucky Downs after a solid effort at the track in 2021, and at morning line odds of 12-1, his pick could reward backers nicely with a slight improvement in form.

In the event of inclement weather around Franklin, Ky., we've introduced J.D.'s “Scratch Saver” pick to increase the chances of the host helping you find a winner, whether they're a longshot or not.

Thursday's Scratch Saver comes in Race 9, the 1 mile and 70 yard Tapit Stakes. #3 Like the King hasn't won since last year's Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park, and fans might recognize him from the field of the 2021 Kentucky Derby. Like the King has been close in the past, and the only speed in Thursday's field has drawn inside. He should be close to the lead, and could get back on the winning track, and at 15-1 on the morning line, he could be another strong price play.

Kentucky Downs' 2022 meet takes place Sept. 1, 3, 4, 8, 10, 11, and 14. First post each day is at 12:25 p.m. Central, except for the Saturday, Sept. 10 card, which features a special start time of 11:30 a.m. Central.

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International Trade to the Fore At Tattersalls August Sale

The Tattersalls August Sale may be one of the newest horses-in-training sales on the circuit, but it posted rock-solid results with the global demand for horses at all levels evident during Wednesday's trade.

A total of 217 horses sold at an aggregate of 5,267,300gns and an average of 24,273gns. The median was 14,000gns and the top price paid was 250,000gns for Operating (War Front) (lot 299). The 3-year-old colt is a full-brother to G3 Round Tower S. hero Intelligence Cross, the Irish/Hong Kong listed winner Warning Flag (Sweet Orange in Hong Kong), who was third in the G1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup, and a half-brother to the Grade III-stakes placed Bay Of Biscay (Giant's Causeway).

The Castlebridge Consignment were not only responsible for that top lot, who was sold to Najd Stud, but it also drafted Mr McCann (Ire) (Kodiac {GB}) (lot 305), who fetched the second-highest price on the day, 210,000gns to SackvilleDonald.  Fourth in both the G2 Superlative S. and the G2 German 2000 Guineas, the colt is a four-time winner and is rated 101.

Tattersalls Chairman Edmond Mahony commented, “We saw records broken across the board at the recent Tattersalls July Sale and it has been encouraging to see the Tattersalls August Sale follow on in similar fashion.

“This is only the third renewal of the August Sale and very much the smallest catalogue for this new fixture, but the level of trade has demonstrated the sustained global demand for horses in training at all levels of the market and the extraordinary ability of sales of this nature at Tattersalls to attract buyers from throughout the world with such consistency.”

He added, “Domestic British and Irish buyers have been competing strongly throughout the day and the diverse international participation has as ever made a huge contribution to a successful sale.

“The customary strong contingent from the Gulf region has been active from start to finish and the Gulf buyers have faced stiff competition from all corners of the world including Australia, Hong Kong, India and the USA, all of which is a source of encouragement as we turn our attention to the Tattersalls yearling sales season which starts with the Somerville Yearling Sale on Tuesday, 6 September.”

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Oaklawn To Offer End-Of-Season Trainer Bonus

Trainers who compete at the 2022-2023 meeting at Oaklawn Park will be eligible for thousands of dollars in incentives owing to a new program sponsored by Oaklawn and the Arkansas HBPA.

The 'Stay Until May' bonus will reward traines with $200-$250 for every non-stakes runner that fails to hit the board. Trainers are required to run at least two horses during the final 14 days of the racing season and one over the course of the last nine programs. According to a release, the total bonus payout could reach as much as three-quarters of a million dollars.

“We've always taken great pride in the fact that Oaklawn has among the largest fields in American racing,” Oaklawn Racing Secretary Pat Pope said. “And, while the trainers of the top finishers are richly rewarded, this enables us to also show appreciation to trainers who help make our races go even if their starters finish fourth or further back.”

Pope said that the concept, which was first discussed last May by track officials and the HBPA, was unanimously endorsed by the latter's board once finalized. The exact bonus will be $200 for every non-stakes starter that finishes fourth through last from opening day [Dec. 9] through Sunday, Apr. 2. The bonus will then increase to $250 starting Apr. 7 and through the balance of the meet, which concludes May 6.

“The Arkansas HBPA felt there were several reasons to endorse this bonus program, but mainly we wanted to try to help the trainers with the small to mid-sized operations,” said HBPA President Bill Walmsley. “The racing industry is a lot healthier with these trainers in business. We're fortunate at Oaklawn to have a healthy purse account, so it seemed like a good time to implement this program and hopefully it will encourage horsemen to stay until the end.”

Purses are projected to be a record $50 million during the 2022-2023 season. This would put average purses at more than $735,000 per day. All allowance races will be more than $100,000 and maiden special weights will start at $90,000.

The first condition book and stall applications can be found at https://www.oaklawn.com/racing/horsemen/. Stall applications are due Thursday, Oct. 13. The stable area opens Tuesday, Nov. 1 and the track opens for training on Saturday, Nov. 5.

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‘It’s Been An Incredible Year’ – Coolmore Laud No Nay Never

We've all seen that video; it was in the month of March when Aidan O'Brien opened the gates at Ballydoyle to the Irish press and, tasked with naming his best 2-year-old by Brendan O'Rourke, the champion trainer did not hold back in his praise for Little Big Bear (Ire).

After nominating Little Big Bear as being top of the class, O'Brien also advised O'Rourke, a renowned Irish racing commentator, to double his stake from a fiver to a tenner on the colt winning his maiden on debut at the Curragh the following weekend.

Although Little Big Bear found one too good on that occasion, all has since been forgiven in the O'Rourke household, with the colt winning each of his next four starts, including a seven-length tonking of his G1 Phoenix S. rivals at the Curragh last month.

Little Big Bear may well be the poster boy for the Ballydoyle-trained juveniles this season, but Blackbeard (Ire), Aesop's Fables (Ire) and Meditate (Ire) have all confirmed themselves as top-notch prospects for one of the most powerful stables in the world.

And what do they all have in common apart from the fact that they are all trained by the master of Ballydoyle? That they are also by the sire of the moment, No Nay Never.

 

Coolmore's Mark Byrne said, “I had to laugh, that video resurfaced on Twitter again. 'What's his name, Chris [Armstrong, O'Brien's racing secretary at Ballydoyle]?' 'Little Big Bear, Aidan.'

“I don't think anyone could have imagined what would have happened after that. It's been an incredible year for No Nay Never. He has the ante-post favourite for the 1000 and 2000 Guineas already.”

An incredible year, indeed. Little Big Bear is likely to miss the G1 National S. at the Curragh on Irish Champions Weekend, but the hope is that he will run again this season, while fellow Group 1 winner Blackbeard, successful in the Prix Morny at Deauville when last seen, will continue to fly the flag for the stable and the stallion.

Byrne said, “Hopefully we'll see Little Big Bear back by the end of the year, Aesop's Fables could be anything, Blackbeard won the Prix Morny just like his father and his great grandfather [Johannesburg] and then you have Meditate as well. And they are just the Ballydoyle-trained No Nay Nevers I am talking about.

“It is an incredible feat for No Nay Never. He got off to a great start with Ten Sovereigns (Ire) and Alcohol Free (Ire), who is still running at the top level, but it's been a pleasure to see the standard of the mare that he has covered on the rise season after season. It's incredible to think that there could be even better to come.”

He added, “No Nay Never has sired the winner of 12 2-year-old stakes races in Europe already this season. That's remarkable. He's also sired [the winners of] both of the Group 1 2-year-old races in Europe this season as well. It's hard to knock him from any angle, really.

“Everyone is looking ahead towards the last Group 1 races of the Flat season for 2-year-olds and then all roads lead to the Guineas. It's conceivable that he could have two or three of ante-post favourites for the 2000 Guineas and possibly likewise for the 1000 Guineas by the end of the season.”

If there is one question mark hovering over No Nay Never, it may be whether or not his brilliant batch of 2-year-olds will stay the Guineas trip next term. However, Byrne thinks Little Big Bear and Aesop's Fables have emphatically enhanced their claims for Classic glory with their respective performances this season.

He said, “When Little Big Bear won the Phoenix S., there were three of them in a line a furlong and a half from home, and he went on to win by seven lengths. How could you say that he wouldn't get the mile on that performance?

“Aesop's Fables returned from 119 days off the track to win the G2 Futurity S. at the Curragh and he only really got going inside the last couple of furlongs that day. I'd have no doubt that they'd get at least a mile and there's still some lovely types out of Galileo (Ire) mares that we have here [at Coolmore] that will definitely get the mile and beyond in time. I have no fear about that whatsoever. As well as that, Meditate was doing her best work late on to win the Debutante quite comfortably, so it's a hugely exciting time.”

It's not just No Nay Never that everyone in Coolmore is thankful for. On that Scat Daddy line, Justify has emerged as a force to be reckoned with and Byrne thinks that the US Triple Crown winner can develop into a top-class stallion in his own right.

He said, “He has got off to a mind-bogglingly good start at stud. It might sound crazy, but you could compare him to Gun Runner in America, even at this very early stage. He actually has four stakes winners in America already, which is more than Gun Runner had at the same stage of his stud career, and interestingly, of those four stakes winners, two have been on turf and the other two on dirt, so he has versatility as well.

“To think that Justify has achieved all that he has already and he didn't even hit the track at two himself, he could be one of the most exciting young sires in America. That whole Scat Daddy sire line is really taking off–you've got Mendelssohn, who has had a 'TDN Rising Star' already, and it goes right down to Sioux Nation, who has two group winners and 28 individual winners already.

“We've also got Caravaggio in America, but he also has some very good crops in Europe, including Tenebrism, a Group 1 winner at two and three. There is also Maljoom (Ire) to look forward to and few would bet against him finishing the season as the best 3-year-old miler in Europe. I know that is a big statement to make but he looked unlucky in the G1 St James's Palace S. at Royal Ascot and the form of that race is looking stronger and stronger.”

And that's just the start of the Scat Daddy pipeline that Coolmore has been mining with great success in recent seasons. Those taps are in full flow now, with progeny of Ten Sovereigns going down well at the August Sale at Arqana and the Premier Yearling Sale at Doncaster, which bodes well for the future.

“It's very early days at the yearling sales but the progeny of Ten Sovereigns have been extremely well-received. When you go to Book 1 and Book 2 at Tattersalls and the Orby Sale at Goffs, that's when you'll really see a different type of yearling coming along. The demand for these horses is just going up and up.

“Then we also have Arizona, who has his first foals on the ground, and in a couple of years' time, hopefully we will have Little Big Bears and Blackbeards as well. It's a line that keeps getting stronger and stronger.”

 

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