August, 2022 | Horse Racing Free Tips

Justa Warrior ‘Justifies’ Favoritism In Debutante

Her maiden-breaking score, a five-length romp at Ellis Park July 22, was enough to secure 5-2 favoritism for Justa Warrior Sunday afternoon in her jump up to stakes company. With an extra furlong-and-a-half to work with, she settled three wide behind the pace of Mor Lively (Mor Spirit) through fractions of :22.39 and :45.71. Fanned five wide at the top of the stretch, Justa Warrior assumed command and took over, holding off a charging Pachuca (Ghostzapper) in the final sixteenth to lead by a length on the wire.

Her family is a who's who list of 'TDN Rising Stars' that includes her dam, GISW and $1.25 million 2011 Fasig-Tipton November purchase A Z Warrior (Bernardini), and a trio of her dam's half-sisters (GISP Jojo Warrior {Pioneerof the Nile}, GSP J Z Warrior {Harlan's Holiday}, and GISP E Z Warrior {Exploit}). A Z Warrior has since produced a full-brother to today's winner, as well as a weanling colt by Uncle Mo. She was bred back to Curlin for a 2023 foal. Justa Warrior is the third black-type winner for freshman Coolmore stallion Justify (by Scat Daddy). Click for the Equibase.com chart.

RUNHAPPY ELLIS PARK DEBUTANTE S., $122,500, Ellis, 8-14, 2yo, f, 7f, 1:25.89, ft.
1–JUSTA WARRIOR, 120, f, 2, by Justify
                1st Dam: A Z Warrior (GISW, $286,906), by Bernardini
                2nd Dam: Carson Jen, by Carson City
                3rd Dam: Calamitous Jen, by Deputy Minister
($150,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP). 1ST BLACK TYPE WIN.
O-Stone Bridge Farm; B-Triemore Stud (KY); T-John Alexander
Ortiz; J-Reylu Gutierrez. $72,660. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0,
$108,660. *1/2 to Cole Porter (IRE) (Galileo (IRE)), SP-Sin,
$215,874.
2–Pachuca, 120, f, 2, Ghostzapper–Goodbye Kid, by
Lemon Drop Kid. 1ST BLACK TYPE. O/B-St. George Stables, LLC
(KY); T-Fausto Gutierrez. $23,600.
3–Tap'er Light, 120, f, 2, Mineshaft–Ellewinkle, by Eltish.
($45,000 Ylg '21 OBSWIN; $90,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR).
1ST BLACK TYPE. O-Keith Johnston and Philip DiCosmo;
B-Carol A. Reitman, Susan Gannon & Warren Miller (FL);
T-Bobby S. Dibona. $9,300.
Margins: 1, 3/4, 3. Odds: 2.51, 9.46, 23.90.
Also Ran: Mor Lively, Shoplifter, Holiday Decision, Crackalacking, Kiss Me On Oconee, C C Cruise Control, Chiquita Mosca, Zapple, Empire of My Own. Scratched: Karma Ghia, Naughty Lottie, Outofnothingatall, Pachanga Loca.

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Round Table: Economist Sheds Light On The Forces Behind The Declining Foal Crop

When the projected foal crop figure is released each year, analysts are quick to look at how it's trending compared to years past. For a very long time now, that number has been going down. The annual foal crop declined 53% from 1990 to 2019, and depending on who you ask, everyone has a different theory as to why that's happening.

Dr. Lauren Stiroh, managing director at NERA Economic Consulting, was brought in by The Jockey Club to analyze the issue from an outsider's perspective. Stiroh presented her findings at the 2022 Jockey Club Round Table conference in Saratoga Springs, N.Y., on Aug. 14.

Stiroh focused on the period from 1990 to 2020, although acknowledged many of the factors she looked at registered atypical results during the first year of the pandemic in 2020. While the foal crop declined 53% from 1990 to 2019, Stiroh found the number of individual breeders went down 56% although the number of foals registered per breeder only rose by 5%.

There were also changes in the location of those breeders. In 1990, Kentucky, California, Florida, Texas and Oklahoma combined to account for just over half the annual foal crop. Now, Kentucky accounts for about 43% of the total on its own.

Stiroh tested several different factors to see which was most strongly correlated with changes in foal crop. Auction prices for weanlings, yearlings, and 2-year-olds have remained largely steady through this time period. With the decrease in the crop, there has been a slight increase in the average earnings per runner. As the foal crop shrunk, advertised stud fees came down, but then they rose again as the shrinkage leveled off and didn't experience the same severity of drop as the foal crop. Average stud revenue followed a similar trend. Stiroh concluded there wasn't a clear cause on the revenue side of the equation.

She then looked at the costs side of the equation, presenting data from the producer price index of hay and hay seeds. A graph of hay prices showed them increasing significantly from the mid-2000s forward, but not necessarily in step with declines in the foal crop.

Predictably, the biggest dips in foal registration immediately followed national economic recessions, reiterating what the industry already knows — the horse industry is not immune to larger economic forces off the farm.

The number of races held each year has decreased as the foal crop has decreased, and the average field size has also shrunk (though not as drastically as the foal crop has); still, those did not seem to be strong predictors of the foal crop. When Stiroh got to parimutuel handle however, she found a really good predictor of foal crop changes. Parimutuel handle figures followed nearly exactly the same trends as foal crop, in terms of timing and severity. Using regression analysis, she found that data from parimutuel handle, number of races, gross domestic product, and average stud fee combined to create a very accurate prediction of foal crop changes.

So where does that leave us?

Stiroh pointed out many of the same issues already identified by the McKinsey and Company study commissioned by The Jockey Club in 2011 — if foal crop is directly correlated to changes in parimutuel handle, it would seem the way to grow the Thoroughbred industry is to increase handle. Racing faces far more legal competition for the gambling dollar in 2022 than it once did, and its popularity as a spectator sport has slipped considerably from its height in the 1950s or 1960s. An aging fan base has also limited racing's ability to compete with other sports or other gambling options.

Stiroh's takeaway: Racing needs to appeal to a younger audience and pursue revenue streams outside parimutuel handle — a suggestion the sport has heard several times before.

The post Round Table: Economist Sheds Light On The Forces Behind The Declining Foal Crop appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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‘Everything’s On Our Radar’: Lovell Weighs Options For Saratoga Special Winner Damon’s Mound

Cliff Love and Michele Love's Damon's Mound, a strong 3 1/4-length winner of the Saratoga Special (G2) Saturday bat Saratoga, was to ship back to Virginia Sunday and resume training at Colonial Downs.

“He's perfect, proud of himself and a little tired, which is to be expected,” said trainer Michelle Lovell, who scored her first victory at the Spa with her first starter.

The win improved the dark bay colt's record to a perfect 2-for-2, building upon an eye-catching 12 1/2-length win on debut win in July at Churchill Downs. Lovell acknowledged the excitement of both Churchill Downs and Saratoga, but praised the quiet lifestyle the Virginia facility offers to horses.

“We're training at a very quiet, horse friendly place in Virginia,” said Lovell. “He's been at Churchill where there is a lot of commotion.”

The juvenile son of Girvin, who was ridden to victory by Gabriel Saez, was awarded a career-high 86 Beyer Speed Figure for his last-to-first effort on Saturday.

“He's been so great,” said Lovell. “Everything went to perfection. Even the way the race set up. We were really happy to track the frontrunners. Gabriel put an excellent ride on him. The rest is history. It's in the history books.”

As for a next start, Lovell said her preference would be to get Damon's Mound around two turns, but did not rule out the seven-furlong Hopeful (g1) on September 5 at the Spa or the Champagne (G1) at the Belmont at the Big A fall meet. The Iroquois (G3) in September at Churchill Downs or the Breeders' Futurity (G1) in October at Keeneland would satisfy the desire to race at two turns.

“Everything's on our radar,” said Lovell. “We'll see how he is. He's never had a bad day, so I don't expect him to.”

Lovell, a former jockey who had ridden at Saratoga and finished second on three occasions, said she was pleased to finally enjoy a trip to the winner's circle there.

“We celebrated at dinner,” said Lovell. “I took my groom and some friends and just had a nice dinner. I had so many congrats from so many people. Saratoga is super special, obviously, that's an understatement. Getting to [be in the winner's circle] was awesome.”

The post ‘Everything’s On Our Radar’: Lovell Weighs Options For Saratoga Special Winner Damon’s Mound appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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