Month: July 2022

Equibase Analysis: Howbeit Poised For Big Upset In Bing Crosby

This Saturday's Grade 1, $400,000 Bing Crosby Stakes at Del Mar is a “Win & You're In” for the Breeders' Cup Sprint this fall at Keeneland. The race drew an exceptionally well-matched field of 10 with six of the runners entering the race off a win or a narrow runner-up effort.

  • Diamond Oops leads the field in terms of earnings ($1.4 million) and accomplishments as he has six graded stakes wins in his career, although his last victory came in January of 2021.
  • Next is the exceptional sprinter Drain the Clock, who has won seven of 14 races including both the G3 Bay Shore Stakes and G1 Woody Stephens Stakes last year.
  • American Theorem and Principe Carlo both proved they belong with the top sprinters in North America following their most recent efforts when first and second, respectively, and separated by a nose in the G2 Triple Bend Stakes.
  • Letsgetlucky is another interesting candidate as he returns off a three month layoff and, when last seen, finished fast for second behind division leader Jackie's Warrior in the G3 Count Fleet Sprint Handicap.
  • Get Her Number won the G3 American Pharoah Stakes in the fall of 2020 then won only one of seven subsequent starts but earned a big win in his most recent race at the end of June.
  • Howbeit has won six of 20 dirt races and was returning from nearly a year on the bench earlier this month in the Oak Tree Sprint Stakes but stumbled and lost his jockey.
  • Bagboss has finished first or second in seven of eight races and tries stakes company for the first time.
  • Desmond Doss is a multiple stakes winner against California-bred horses, most recently winning the Bertrando Stakes in June.
  • Shaaz is the most lightly raced starter in the Bing Crosby Stakes, having run only four times and winning twice. He cuts back in distance after a third place effort in the G3 Steve Sexton Mile Stakes in his most recent race.

Analysis and main contenders:

I am going to start with a potential upsetter in Howbeit, who has won six of 20 career races on dirt, including three of eight last year. Claimed for $32,000 in February of 2021 after winning four of 12 dirt sprints, Howbeit ran the best races of his career in succession with two runner-up finishes followed by two very strong wins by margins of 3 1/2 and 4 1/2 lengths. Those efforts earned 108 and 105 ™ Equibase® Speed Figures, which put in perspective are on par with the top horses in this field, as evidenced by the 109 figure American Theorem earned winning the Triple Bend Stakes in May and the 109 figures earned by Shaaz (Steve Sexton Mile) and by Letsgetlucky (Count Fleet Sprint Handicap).

Returning to the races on July 2 after nine months off, Howbeit was the odds-on favorite in the Oak Tree Sprint Stakes but stumbled and lost his jockey at the start. Having put in a few spectacularly fast workouts prior to that race, trainer Mark Glatt has given Howbeit just one, slower five furlong workout in preparation for this race as he was already in top condition. Considering that one of his career-best efforts came one year ago this week at Del Mar (July 25), I think Howbeit may have what it takes to win this year's Bing Crosby Stakes and surprise many racing fans.

Diamond Oops has always been an interesting horse to me. After winning three of his first five races in 2017, including two stakes on dirt (both sprints) and making only one start in 2018, trainer Patrick Biancone switched him to turf for his 2019 campaign, then back to dirt to win the Smile Sprint Stakes that summer. Entered in the Phoenix Stakes that fall at Keeneland, Biancone instead ran Diamond Oops in the Shadwell Turf Mile, nearly pulling off the 12 to 1 upset when the horse led late and finished second. Later that year Diamond Oops moved back to dirt to win the Mr. Prospector Stakes then the following September (2020) he won the Twin Spires Turf Sprint with a last to first rally, then moved back to dirt to win the Phoenix Stakes.

Although Diamond Oops has won just one of 12 races since, that one win earned a 111 ™ figure as good as any he had earned earlier in this career. It is very interesting that Biancone shipped Diamond Oops to Del Mar, where he had never run before, and entered him in a race on July 23, just one week ago, likely with the Bing Crosby Stakes in mind if the horse ran well, which he did when finishing third of seven behind multiple stakes winner C Z Rocket. Prior to that race, Diamond Oops put in a very strong five furlong workout in 58.8 seconds, with both the workout and subsequent race demonstrating the horse likes the Del Mar surface and could run even better in his second start locally.

Drain the Clock has won half of his 14 starts including four stakes races. In his first start of 2022, Drain the Clock opened up late in the race and was just run down by a neck in the Gulfstream Park Sprint, earning a career best 113 ™ figure which one might expect from a maturing 4-year-old. After a poor seventh place finish against some of the best sprinters in the world in the Dubai Golden Shaheen Stakes in March, Drain the Clock resurfaced in the Smile Sprint Stakes four weeks ago against horses which had run more recently than March, which could explain why he faded to fourth after moving up from sixth to lead after a half-mile. Before leaving his home base in south Florida, Drain the Clock put in a very strong :46.2 four furlong workout and this being his second start off the layoff may return to top form good enough to win a graded stakes for the fourth time in his career.

The top three being the main win contenders in my opinion, honorable mention has to go to a few other horses. First among those are American Theorem and Principe Carlo, who both earned strong 109 ™ figures when first and second, respectively, in the Triple Bend Stakes near the end of May. Both were ignored in the wagering at 13 to 1 odds, but neither would be a surprise if running well in this situation. Letsgetlucky also may deserve some respect as his career-best effort (with a 109 figure) in the Count Fleet Sprint Handicap in April was noteworthy. Not only did he close strongly in the last eighth of a mile into Breeders' Cup Sprint divisional leader Jackie's Warrior, it must be noted both the winner and third finishers returned to win their next starts.

As to Shaaz, he may possibly be the betting favorite with his trainer being Bob Baffert and off his 109 ™ figure effort when third in the Steve Sexton Mile in his most recent start. However, with Shaaz having run just four times and with his other three efforts yielding 93, 97 and 101 figures which are inferior to the rest of the field's efforts in races similar to this one, I'll take a stand against him.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase Speed Figures, is Bagboss (105), Desmond Doss (107) and Get Her Number (103).

Win Contenders:
Howbeit
Diamond Oops
Drain the Clock

Bing Crosby Stakes – Grade 1
Race 8 at Del Mar
Saturday, July 30 – Post Time 8:30 PM E.T.
Six Furlongs
Three Years Olds and Upward
Purse: $400,000

The post Equibase Analysis: Howbeit Poised For Big Upset In Bing Crosby appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Source of original post

French Jockey Mickaëlle Michel Adds To International Success At Ellis Park

It didn't take place amidst the sprawling splendor of Ascot or the glittering backdrop of Meydan Racecourse, but the latest achievement in Mickaëlle Michel's burgeoning career caused a wave of relief and emotion to wash over her nonetheless.

For all the success she has already enjoyed in the saddle and illustrious venues she has participated at, earning that first victory on American soil was something the 27-year-old jockey knew could open a new set of doors in her ongoing quest to ascend the ranks. If she can prove herself on the competitive circuits in North America and showcase how well her record-breaking talents translate to the U.S. style of running, Michel's hopes for an extended stay on this side of the ocean could become prolific reality.

The joy coming from the French native was palpable on the afternoon of July 17 as she made her way into the Ellis Park winner's circle having guided Friar Laurence to victory in the third race of the day. In her 17th mount in the U.S., Michel had shown her newest comrades in the jocks room the kind of competitive problem they could have on their hands going forward.

“I'm not here just to be a jockey, I want to be a really good jockey,” Michel said. “I'm hoping to make something really good happen here.”

Given that she has made a strong impression in every jurisdiction she has ridden in, earning her first win in North America seemed only a matter of time for Michel since making her U.S. debut this spring. With that triumph now under her belt thanks to the efforts of the Ben Colebrook-trained Friar Laurence, France's former champion apprentice is turning her focus to earning the sustained support of some of elite barns in the industry as she sets up shop in Henderson, Ky for the summer.

American pundits may still be learning her name, but Michel has earned a reputation internationally for being a quick study and natural talent on a variety of courses. After winning a then-record 72 races to become France's apprentice champion in 2018, Michel headed to Japan in 2020 where she established a new mark of 30 wins for foreign jockeys on a short-term contract.

In October 2020, she captured her first group race when she won the Gran Premio Del Jockey Club Stakes (G2) in Italy aboard Walderbe (GER). That pairing would continue to enjoy high marks together as Michel would go on to guide the son of Maxios (GB) to a runner-up finish in the 2021 Dubai Gold Cup (G2) at Meydan.

“I was in Japan a few months two years ago, so I got a lot of experience (riding) on the dirt,” said Michel, who has bloodstock agent Jane Buchanan handling her book in the United States. “I broke the record over there too for a foreign jockey and I've ridden in many different countries like in Dubai and Saudi Arabia. I've already ridden with some of the best jockeys in the U.S. like Mike Smith and Rafael Bejarano.

“My French agent, who is now my husband (Frederic Spanu), it was his idea for me to come (to the U.S.). He spoke to me about U.S. racing, and he thought I would have the right form for American racing. We decided to come at the beginning of the year and…now I've won my first race. So, I'm happy.”

Trying to break through as a female jockey is a challenge on any circuit, but Michel said the going was particularly tough in her native country where support from horseman is scarce at best.

Since coming stateside, however, she has already been able to catch the eye of Hall of Famers Mark Casse and D. Wayne Lukas, that latter of whom has put her on multiple mounts. She nearly prevailed in her first U.S. ride, piloting Good Measure to a runner-up finish in a 1 1/4-miles allowance race at Churchill Downs on May 26 for Hall of Fame finalist Graham Motion.

“She's a very competent rider. Nobody does what she did in Japan unless they're a very competent rider,” said Motion, who rode Michel back on Good Measure when the two ran second again on June 24. “I think that speaks volumes. I thought she rode my horses very well. She's very informative about the horses when she gets off them. That is very helpful. She's a very good and a very fit rider.

“Jane (Buchanan), who also works for me, that's been her angle a bit with Mickaelle is she's got that dirt experience. I think people think she might be more of a turf rider, but she's got a lot of experience on the dirt, very familiar with riding on the dirt. I think once she gets more established, that's going to put her in very good stead.”

The volume of globe-trotting Michel has done already in her career has her hopeful she can stay in one place for the foreseeable future. She already received a four-year visa and, in addition to her time at Ellis Park, she has plans to head to Saratoga in the beginning of August to try and make even more of keen eyes aware of the ability she possesses.

“I know a jockeys' life can give you a big surprise. You never know what will happen the next day so I'm just like, I want to enjoy my career and my job because many people forget sometimes that it is a really tough job,” she said. “I'm here now and I want to enjoy it, I want to win a lot of races, and I want to win a big race.”

Added Motion, “I think she just needs to catch a break. She was a little unlucky with the way things went at Churchill with the turf course (being shut down). I think that hurt her a little bit because the fields weren't as big. I think once she gets established a little more at Ellis Park, I think she'll do very well.”

The post French Jockey Mickaëlle Michel Adds To International Success At Ellis Park appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Source of original post

‘We Are Going To Get Relegated If We Keep Selling Our Best Strikers’

   There have been a lot of football analogies in racing this week. Most have centered around a hypothetical situation whereby the Kevin De Bruynes or the Erling Haalands of this world were leaving the Premier League for sunnier-and more lucrative pay packets-in foreign leagues. 

   For all the Manchester City fans out there, you can relax, as the analogy was simply fictional. However, there is nothing fictional about the mass exodus of talent facing British and Irish racing.

   Ger Lyons is better qualified than most to speak about the problem. Lyons, who has held a training licence for over 25 years, has built his impressive Glenburnie Stables in County Meath into one of the best training facilities in Ireland.

   He secured a breakthrough Classic success in 2020 when Siskin stormed to Irish 2,000 Guineas glory at the Curragh while Even So provided the stable with its second when landing the Irish Oaks in the same season. 

   From losing some of his best prospects to the international market, poor prize-money and what he describes as a lack of opportunities for good horses in Ireland, Lyons makes for a fascinating interviewee in this week's Q&A.

Brian Sheerin: You have trained 41 winners this season–only Aidan and Joseph O'Brien have managed a greater tally at this juncture–and you have already surpassed the €1 million mark in prize-money at Glenburnie. Everything is on course for another big season.

Ger Lyons: Everything is going steady away. We haven't run many 2-year-olds so far this season and I have had to be patient with them. The quality seems to be good as we are holding our own in stakes races which has always been the objective for us. 

BS: While things have been going well on the track, I know from speaking with you at length just over a month ago that you have major concerns for Irish racing. You also described yourself as “a pre-trainer” for international handlers due to the exodus of high-class horses to the foreign market. Would you care to expand on that?

GL: Sadly, our prize-money is very ordinary and what I would describe as the 'good horse' is being neglected, hence why they are all being sold to continue their careers abroad. From the top owners right down the ranks, no-one is able to turn down Australia, Hong Kong or America when they come calling. It's disappointing to have to sell our best prospects but the economics of it all makes sense. Not only that, but the owners can see the earning power for their horses in America and we have seen countless examples of horses being moved out there in pursuit of greater prize-money. Masen (GB) (Kingman {GB}) is the most recent horse to leave my yard for America. He has won over $300,000 in three runs in America but would have struggled to earn €100,000 in Ireland this season–and that's if he won three races over here, the chances of which would have been very slim as the opportunities just aren't there. 

BS: Mark Johnston echoed the same opinion in last week's Q&A. He revealed that the owners of Royal Patronage (Fr) (Wootton Bassett {GB}), a Group 2-winning 2-year-old who reached a rating of 113 in his 3-year-old campaign, decided to move the colt to America in a bid to win more prize-money. Johnston was keen to point out that he didn't blame the owners but admitted the drain on resources is becoming hard to contend with as a trainer. Do you feel the same?

GL: I certainly don't blame the owners as we all trade. However, if we keep selling our best horses then we are going to be left racing what's left over and our product will lessen every year. If people don't want to watch our best, how will they come and watch lesser quality races and races with small field sizes? This trend needs to be addressed quickly as we are already a long way down a very slippery slope.

BS: Here's the bit that doesn't make sense for me; Mutasarref (GB) (Dark Angel {Ire}) is a horse who you bought for 95,000gns from Dermot Weld at the Horses-in-Training Sale last October. He was obviously well-bought given he's won three races for you–at Leopardstown, the Curragh and last week at Naas–and has improved 25lbs in the process. However, he's picked up less than €30,000 for those wins at premier tracks and only qualified for that Naas race by virtue of the fact he hasn't won a race worth €15,000 or more. 

GL: He's a good example of a good horse not being rewarded with the prize-money he deserves to be winning. He is now rated 105 after that Naas win but look at what he has earned–it's pathetic. Good horses should be rewarded yet we seem to reward mediocrity. In what world should a stakes-placed horse earn the same as a low-grade handicapper operating in the 45-65 bracket? It does here and that's wrong. The strategy [from Horse Racing Ireland] seems to be all about minimum prize-money levels whereas I would have the lower-rated horses earning a maximum figure and it wouldn't exceed €5,000. No handicapper should be earning more than a stakes horse. It's not long ago that a certain rating, say in the 70s, wouldn't get you into a premier handicap. Now it will, which shows how far the standard is dropping. Not only that but, if you are going to reward mediocrity, that promotes cheating but that is another can of worms that I won't open!

BS: There was a story in The Times on Wednesday about how some leading figures in British racing are pushing for a restructuring of the sport that would result in a greater slice of prize-money being channeled to the elite level. It may not be a popular viewpoint but I gather it's one you would agree with?

GL: I was looking at the figures published at the end of last year and it showed that the average prize-money on offer for the premier handicaps was more than that for listed and Group 3 races which is not only astonishing but, in my opinion, wrong. I am also a big believer that our maidens need to be worth more money. You can only win your maiden once and you should be rewarded for doing so, especially because, in order to win a maiden in Ireland, you need to be rated in the mid-80s or above on average. So, when you win your maiden, that is obviously going to limit your chances when you step into premier handicaps. Therefore, the maidens should carry more prize-money. 

BS: You mentioned last month that the notion of prize-money in Ireland being strong was a myth. It's hard to argue against that viewpoint when you look at Slan Abhaile (Ire) (Territories {Ire}), who finished fourth in the G3 Anglesey S. and picked up just €2,750 for her troubles. Had she finished third and picked up black-type, she would have won just €5,500, which is still less than what you'd get for winning a 0-65 handicap.

GL: That's exactly my point and to add insult to injury, if she had finished third and picked up that valuable black-type, that would have ruled her out of a lot of listed races going forward as the conditions of most of those races state that horses who placed in group races can't run. The Ingabelle S. on Irish Champions Weekend is certainly one of those races so, while we were only beaten a head for black type in the Anglesey, I felt it was actually a good outcome as we still have the option of those listed races. But again, here is another example of the programme hindering the good horses whereas you can run your low-grade operator every day of the week if you want to.

BS: HRI released its six-month statistics last week. The figure that jumped out at me is that prize-money still hasn't risen to pre-pandemic levels despite the fact that HRI boss Suzanne Eade put prize-money at the top of her priority list when the budget was released in December. Not only that, but the Irish Derby, which is meant to be the flagship race of the season, carried a purse of €1m when it was worth  €1.5m before the pandemic in 2019. In actual fact, when High Chaparral (Ire) won the Irish Derby 20 years ago, the race was worth €300,000 more than what it was run for this year.

GL: That speaks for itself and I find they [HRI] try to dress up these reports to convince us that all is rosy in the garden but we are the ones on the playing field and we know the reality of the situation. Look, I was lucky to win two Classics in 2020 [the Irish 2,000 Guineas with Siskin and the Irish Oaks with Even So (Ire) (Camelot {GB})] and both races were worth just €145,000 each to the winner–I've won handicaps worth more. The Ebor for example, which we won with Mustajeer (GB) (Medicean {GB}), was worth €1m. By the way, both of my Classic winners were sold to go abroad! 

BS: You have made it clear that you have no interest in training horses below a certain standard. Given the lion's share of the horse population is rated 70 or less, I am interested to know how you go about weeding out the ones who don't make the grade. I know you are a big fan of claimers.

GL: Plenty of people will say, 'it's all right for Ger to say that,' but, like everybody, I do train plenty of low-grade horses–I just choose to move them on and concentrate on the quality. The claimers have been very successful for us and we need a minimum of one a week. Jim Gough claims a lot of my horses and has great fun with them. He actually came over and shook my hand at Naas last week and complimented me on not only supporting those races but for being realistic with price tags that I put on them as well. That allows him to claim them and enjoy them. Just because I don't want to train horses at that level doesn't mean I don't have them. I just choose to move them on. The authorities need to get their heads around the fact that there are hugely positive aspects to claimers and they need to be made more customer-friendly. I think that the claimers are a big addition to the programme and, if I had my way, I would replace a lot of the low-grade handicaps with claimers.

BS: There will also be people who read this and think, 'But Ger, if it wasn't for trading horses, Glenburnie would not have become the behemoth that it is now.' 

GL: At the start, horses were much cheaper to buy and the upside to trading them on was much greater. Nowadays, it's virtually impossible to buy the level of horse we were buying at one point for less than €50,000. There are always exceptions but in general the price of horses has escalated beyond all recognition which flies in the face of my prize-money argument.

BS: When you were starting out, and trading horses was necessary to survive, did you ever envisage a situation whereby, once you arrived at the top table, you would still be faced with the prospects of losing your best horses.

GL: In short, no. I always imagined it would be different when we got the good horses but times have changed and, as I said already, even the top owners are sellers now. Sure didn't Aidan [O'Brien] sell a Derby winner [Serpentine (Ire)] to Australia recently? It's very frustrating and I always use the football analogy in that we–and I mean Britain and Ireland here–are the team that keeps selling our best strikers. Sooner rather than later, we are going to get relegated.

BS: In the immediate future, you have some smart prospects to look forward to. Apricot Twist (Ire) (Expert Eye {GB}) looked a potential top-notcher on debut at Naas last week. Could we see her in the Ballyhane S. next Monday?

GL: She's lovely but the race could just come too soon as she only ran last week. I've done very little with her since but when there is a race with such good prize-money, it's imperative that we support it. Barry [Mahon, racing manager at Juddmonte] and I will discuss it and do the right thing by the filly first and foremost.

BS: You won the race last year with Sacred Bridge (GB) (Bated Breath {GB}) and, judging by the entries, have been keen to record back-to-back wins. What struck me about your entries is that some of them haven't even run yet so I am presuming you have kept a bit of powder dry for the second half of the season.

GS: We have. As I said, it's important to support such initiatives and hopefully I will have a few runners in the race. I've plenty of bullets to fire in the second part of the season as we have been very disciplined with the babies so far.

BS: It's one thing getting these well-bred fillies to train but another thing altogether managing them to fulfil their potential and achieve the valuable black type that they need before they go to the breeding sheds. You must get huge pleasure out of that aspect of the game?

GL: It's one of the great pleasures of this job and one that I very much enjoy. I always remind myself that these babies could be the dams of my next Classic winners, hopefully. One thing that I have learned that I didn't appreciate at the start is that an ounce of breeding is worth a ton of feeding.

BS: And speaking of high-class broodmare prospects, they don't come much better than Cairde Go Deo (Fr) (Camelot {GB}). I thought she ran a cracker in the Irish Oaks and would be excited to see her step up in trip in time. What are the plans for her?

GL: She's a sweetheart and is slowly developing into what we hoped she would be. I trained her mother and liked her and it was that reason that made me purchase Cairde Go Deo on behalf of Mark Dobbin. Also, the fact that she was by Camelot, the same sire as Even So, made it an easy decision. Hopefully she will stay in training at four, and yes, she should mature into a very good stayer.

The post ‘We Are Going To Get Relegated If We Keep Selling Our Best Strikers’ appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

Source of original post

Verified by MonsterInsights