July, 2022 | Horse Racing Free Tips

Equibase Analysis: Upset Brewing In TVG.com Haskell

This year's Grade 1, $1 million TVG.com Haskell Stakes drew a field of eight, led by Jack Christopher, who is undefeated and untested in four races including the Grade 1 Woody Stephens Stakes in June.

Cyberknife has been a horse to be reckoned with in the 3-year-old division, having won the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby in April and most recently victorious in the Grade 3 Matt Winn Stakes on the same weekend as the Woody Stephens.

Taiba, who after winning the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby in April, was so highly regarded he was sent to post as the second betting choice in the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby, returns to the races for his first start since he finished a badly beaten 12^th in that race.

White Abarrio adds more depth to the field after rebounding off a 16^th place Derby effort to finish second in the Grade 3 Ohio Derby at the end of June.

Howling Time gave Cyberknife all he could handle when coming up a nose shy of winning the Matt Winn and is yet another worthy of calling “win contender.” The other three – Benevengo, King of Hollywood and One Time Willard, have a combined record of zero-for-five in stakes races and appear to be overmatched.

Analysis and top contenders:

In the Matt Winn Stakes on June 12, Howling Time led from the start on sensible fractions, then was engaged by Cyberknife with a quarter mile to run. From that point to the wire they were involved in a pitched battle, with Cyberknife prevailing by a nose on the wire. Both colts earned 104 Equibase Speed Figures for that effort, which compares favorably with the 106 figure White Abarrio earned when second in the Ohio Derby.

Jack Christopher earned the highest figure, 108, when winning the Woody Stephens but for reasons mentioned later may be hard pressed to repeat that effort. Howling Time is on a four race pattern of improving figures, starting with 56 in his 3-year-old debut in March, to 77, then to 91 in May and finally the 104 figure earned in the Matt Winn. Third-place Matt Winn finisher Rattle N Roll flattered both Howling Time and Cyberknife when winning the American Derby on July 2 and improving six points, which suggests both Howling Time and Cyberknife could run fast enough to earn 110 figures here. Considering Howling Time opens at slightly higher odds (10-1) compared to Cyberknife (6-1), I'll give slight preference to Howling Time as the better bet in this year's Haskell Stakes.

Cyberknife came onto the 3-year-old scene in a big way in February when winning at the slightly shorter 1 1/16-mile distance but earning a graded stakes quality 100 figure. Showing that to be no fluke, he next won the Arkansas Derby with a slightly lower figure (95) but perhaps could have run faster as he coasted to a 2 3/4-length win. Following a non-competitive 18th-place finish in the Kentucky Derby, Cyberknife resurfaced five weeks later and was exceptionally game when beating Howling Time by a nose and earning a career-best 104 figure in the process. With the ground-saving rail for the Haskell, regular jockey Florent Geroux will have the ability to put the talented colt on the lead from the start, or if Howling Time wants the early lead as he did in the Matt Winn, Geroux can stalk in second as he did that day, setting up another stirring battle to the wire.

White Abarrio actually ran a bit faster in his most recent race than the top pair, earning a 106 figure when second (beaten a length) in the Ohio Derby. Whereas the Matt Winn was run at 1 1/16 miles, the Ohio Derby was run at the nine-furlong distance of the Haskell, the same distance White Abarrio won at when victorious in the Florida Derby this spring. Like Cyberknife, White Abarrio has exceptional tactical speed, having won when fifth early in the Florida Derby and when second early in the Holy Bull Stakes prior to that. As such, White Abarrio is a strong contender in the this race as well, and his starting odds of 5-1 appear to be high enough compared to his probability to win he too should be considered worthy of a win bet.

About the favorites, who I am taking a stand against in this race: Although both Jack Christopher and Taiba have run fast enough to win, having earned 108 and 102 figures, respectively, I don't think either can beat any of the three main contenders if those horses run as expected.

Jack Christopher was two-for-two last year and has the same record this year, improving to a career-best 108 figure with his 10-length win in the Woody Stephens. However, all four of his wins have been around one turn and he is giving up experience to many others in this race. Additionally, he just isn't bred to run as well at this distance as he has at shorter trips. A Race Lens query reveals his sire, Munnings, has had 11 different horses make a total of 25 starts in stakes race at all levels at this nine-furlong distance, and none of those horses won. One of those is Bonny South, who runs earlier on Haskell Day in the Molly Pitcher Stakes. Although having earned $1 million and winning or placing in 11 of 16 races, she is zero-for-five (with four seconds and one third-place finish) at the distance. Jack Christopher's dam (Rushin No Blushin) only ran one time in a two-turn race, finishing 12th.

Those are good reasons in my opinion to take a stand against Jack Christopher in this race.

As for Taiba, I did not like his chances in the Kentucky Derby in spite of his big win in the Santa Anita Derby, owing to his lack of experience. He had just run two times previous to the Derby, winning in a four-horse field in his debut and a six-horse field in the Santa Anita Derby. Although the 102 figures in those two efforts would have been competitive in the Kentucky Derby field if repeated, it was unlikely he could repeat those races against 19 other horses, particularly with many having more experience. Now he has an additional problem, having been off for more time than any other horse in the field. There is no guarantee Taiba can run back to his best effort off the layoff against much more seasoned competition, particularly as there are four other horses in the Haskell field that have run faster than he has to date.

The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Benevengo (99), King of Hollywood (90) and One Time Willard (85).

Win Contenders:

Howling Time

Cyberknife

White Abarrio

TVG.com Haskell Stakes – Grade 1

Race 12 at Monmouth Park

Saturday, July 23 – Post Time 5:45 p.m. ET

One Mile and One Eighth

Three Years Old

Purse: $1 Million

T.V.: CNBC 5-6 p.m. ET

Ellis Starr is National Racing Analyst for Equibase

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Half To Juliet Foxtrot Debuts At Newmarket

Observations on the European Racing Scene turns the spotlight on the best European races of the day, highlighting well-pedigreed horses early in their careers, horses of note returning to action and young runners that achieved notable results in the sales ring. Friday's Observations features a half-sister to Grade I winner Juliet Foxtrot (GB) (Dansili {GB}).

5.40 Newmarket, Novice, £8,000, 2yo, 6fT
JULIET SIERRA (GB) (Bated Breath {GB}) is a notable debutante for the Juddmonte-Ralph Beckett connection due for a big two days, being a half-sister to last year's GI Jenny Wiley S. heroine Juliet Foxtrot (GB) (Dansili {GB}). From the family of the great Dancing Brave, the February-foaled bay encounters two winners in a tough introduction.

The post Half To Juliet Foxtrot Debuts At Newmarket appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Security Concerns and Treatment for Compulsive Gambling

Gambling debts may compromise one’s financial stability, cause problems with family and work, and prompt some individuals to engage in illegal activities, including espionage, as a means of covering their losses. Motivation for espionage is usually complex and difficult to assess, but financial pressures from gambling debts have clearly played a significant role in the cases of at least seven Americans who have been arrested for espionage.

By the time most compulsive gamblers seek help, they are hugely in debt, owing as much as $120,000 or more, and their families are in a shambles. About 80% seriously consider suicide, and 13 to 20% actually attempt it or succeed in killing themselves.

Three studies of Gamblers Anonymous members and persons in treatment for compulsive gambling determined that roughly two-thirds admitted to committing crimes or civil fraud to finance their gambling or to pay gambling-related debts. The white-collar crimes of fraud, embezzlement, forgery, and tax evasion predominate among those whose employment and economic status present the opportunity for such crimes.

Another study focused on how problem gambling affects the insurance industry. It found that in a group of 241 Gamblers Anonymous members, 47% admitted to having engaged in some form of insurance fraud, embezzlement or arson.

Treatment for Compulsive Gambling

Like other addictive behaviors, compulsive gambling is treatable. Many problem gamblers are reluctant to seek treatment, however, as they do not understand the nature of the addiction involved. People understand being out of control from putting some kind of substance in their body. Being out of control due to a supposedly voluntary behavior such as gambling damages one’s self-esteem so much that people are extremely reluctant to seek help.

Gamblers Anonymous follows the same pattern as Alcoholics Anonymous, including the same 12-step treatment program. The success rate appears comparable to that for other addictions. Relapse is a problem, but one or two relapses do not necessarily indicate failure. The more severe the gambling problem prior to treatment, the greater the chance of relapse and eventual treatment failure.

Compulsive gamblers frequently also suffer from other addictions such as alcoholism, drug abuse, compulsive shopping or bulimia. Some evidence indicates that individuals with multiple addictions are more difficult to treat than those who suffer from a single addiction. Doctors at some treatment centers have observed a “switching of addictions,” where recovering alcoholics begin to gamble compulsively after several years of abstinence from alcohol. Similarly, women recovering from compulsive gambling have encountered problems with compulsive shopping.

Del Mar Summer: What’s Old, What’s New Where The Turf Meets The Surf?

By now, the Prius should know the route. Follow the setting sun for 2,250 miles of Interstate highway from Lexington, Ky., to Del Mar, Calif. Been making this annual trek for a while now.

Goodbye heat and humidity. Hello ocean breezes and temperatures in the 70s.

Goodbye fried catfish. Hello fish tacos.

While doing the same thing year after year may make life predictable and full of deja vus, I'm not complaining.

Friday will mark my 44th year of racing at Del Mar. My affair started with a gravelly voiced Harry Henson calling the races atop a quaint grandstand. My visits then were mostly weekends while working at Daily Racing Form in Los Angeles.

Then, after moving to Kentucky in the late 1980s, Del Mar became a vacation destination every summer for a couple of weeks to visit in-laws, who were smart enough to buy a home perched between the racetrack and the beach before real estate values went into orbit. They never missed a day at the races, even during the years that construction of a new grandstand limited attendance and ambiance.

After their passing, Del Mar became our summer home, and there is no place I'd rather be.

I can't wait to hear that Bing Crosby song as the horses leave the paddock for the post parade. And I'll get a chill from the “roar from the Del Mar crowd,” as track announcer Trevor Denman will surely say, as the field leaves the starting gate from in front of the grandstand in that first race at two o'clock.

But while so many things will be just like last year, and the year before that, there will be some changes.

Opening day attendance, for example, is limited this year to 21,000 and tickets sold out quickly. There were years on jam-packed opening days that invoked the old Yogi Berra malaprop from some “regulars” that “nobody goes there any more. It's too crowded.”

Also new this year is a later date for opening and closing days (July 22-Sept. 11) and new placement on the calendar for the meet's biggest race, the Grade 1 TVG Pacific Classic. The Breeders' Cup Challenge Series “Win and You're In” contest for the Classic division will be contested as part of a huge card on Sept. 3, Saturday of Labor Day weekend.

A new face in the Del Mar jockey colony is Ramon Vazquez, who moved from the Midwest to Southern California in March. Vazquez has won riding titles at smaller tracks like Prairie Meadows and Lone Star Park and in recent years has been one of the top jockeys at Oaklawn.

Represented by agent William Castle, Vazquez is riding for some of the leading trainers opening weekend, including Peter Miller and Phil D'Amato.

“It's awesome. Amazing to be here,” said the native of Puerto Rico, where he learned his trade at the jockey school that has produced so many outstanding riders. He came to the U.S. in 2002.

“It's a privilege to be at Del Mar,” said Vazquez, who has compiled 3,434 career victories and a 19 percent win percentage.

Vazquez isn't here as a tourist. He's moved his wife, three children, and mother to Southern California and is hoping to make this a permanent stop. Despite a late start three months into the Santa Anita meet, Vazquez finished just outside the top 10. He comes off a riding title at the brief Los Alamitos Thoroughbred meet, where he won with 12 of his 45 mounts. Some are predicting Vazquez could give Juan Hernandez a run for his money as leading rider at the seaside oval.

“I like Ramon. He's an excellent rider and hard worker,” said Miller, Del Mar's leading trainer the last two summer meets. “I think he's going to have a big meet. Ramon puts his horses in the race, doesn't tend to get them in trouble and he's a good finisher. He can ride all types of horses and rides the grass well. And I like that he can tell you something about a horse when he gets off.”

“We are grateful,” agent Castle said of the West Coast foray. “If we don't have the trainers, owners, and gamblers we have zero. Sounds corny like a Hallmark card, but we are very, very happy to be here. Never been anyone who's treated us poorly, not for a second.”

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