Month: June 2022

Justify’s Statuette Goes Two-For-Two After Curragh Triumph

Kept at home as Meditate (Ire) (No Nay Never) went to Royal Ascot, TDN Rising Star Statuette (Justify–Immortal Verse {Ire}, by Pivotal {GB}) was able to comfortably follow her stablemate's lead by taking Sunday's G2 Airlie Stud S. at The Curragh. Already the focus of attention on breeding, the chestnut put fuel on the fire with a fluent win on debut over an extended five furlongs at Navan May 28 and travelled easily throughout the early stages of this six-furlong contest formerly known as the Balanchine. Asked to take closer order to the leading trio before halfway, the 4-6 favourite had to work to get to Badb (Ire) (Footstepsinthesand {GB}) inside the last 150 yards but was soon in command en route to a 3/4-of-a-length success from that 25-1 outsider, with Matilda Picotte (Ire) (Sioux Nation) the same margin back in third. “She has a beautiful mind, great stride and an unbelievable physique,” Aidan O'Brien said after welcoming his eighth winner of this prize. “We think the Justifys are something to look forward to.” . Race replay. 

Statuette, whose half-sister Tenebrism (Caravaggio) was the winner of the G1 Cheveley Park S. on her second start, is being prepared for the major late-summer and autumn prizes according to her trainer. “She's a very big filly, she's 16 2 1/2, and we were only training her three-quarters ready because we had our eye on the last part of the season,” he explained. “With that type of filly if you train them too hard you wouldn't have them at the end of the season when you want them. We were a little bit worried when the ground got soft that she could have gotten very tired, but obviously just her class got her through. She travelled lovely and Ryan nursed her, she won lovely in the end.”

“She's a sister to Tenebrism, but she'd carry her on her back as she's a massive big powerful filly this one,” he added. “She's probably not as precocious as a filly running at this time of year tends to be, but she has so much class she was able to run and do it rather than us making her do it. When she was able to do it we didn't like stopping her, but at the same time we weren't chasing her in any way at home. We think she's a Guineas filly. She's a filly with a lot of class and you'd imagine she'd have no problem getting a mile. The Moyglare, the Cheveley Park, all those races are there for her. Obviously we have the filly that won at Ascot [Meditate] as well. The lads will probably keep them apart.”

The dam Immortal Verse, who captured the G1 Coronation S. and G1 Prix Jacques le Marois and was bred back to Justify last year, topped the 2013 Tattersalls December Mares Sale when knocked down for 4.7million gns. She is a daughter of the Listed Prix La Camargo winner and G3 Prix Fille de l'Air runner-up Side of Paradise (Ire) (Sadler's Wells), who is also the second dam of the G1 Queen Elizabeth II S. runner-up Roseman (Ire) (Kingman {GB}) and the G1 Futurity Trophy-placed Baradar (Ire) (Muhaarar {GB}).

Side of Paradise is out of Richard Strauss's Kilfrush Stud's exceptional broodmare Mill Princess (Ire) (Mill Reef), who issued an abundance of leading lights directly and indirectly headed by the star sprinter Last Tycoon (Ire). Among her most notable producers were Last Tycoon's G3 Prix du Bois-winning full-sister The Perfect Life (Ire), Save Me the Waltz (Ire) (Kings Lake) and Zelda (Ire) (Caerleon). Under this trio are the likes of the G1 Poule d'Essai des Pouliches heroine Valentine Waltz (Ire) (Be My Guest), the GI Matron S. winner Sense of Style (Thunder Gulch) and Galileo's trio of top-level-winning siblings Hermosa (Ire), Hydrangea (Ire) and The United States (Ire).

Sunday, Curragh, Ireland
AIRLIE STUD S. (BALANCHINE S.)-G2, €142,800, Curragh, 6-26, 2yo, f, 6fT, 1:13.64, yl.
1–STATUETTE, 128, f, 2, by Justify
     1st Dam: Immortal Verse (Ire) (Hwt. Filly-Eng- at 7 – 9 1/2 f., G1SW-Eng, G1SW-Fr, $1,053,873), by Pivotal (GB)
     2nd Dam: Side of Paradise (Ire), by Sadler's Wells
     3rd Dam: Mill Princess (Ire), by Mill Reef
1ST BLACK TYPE WIN, 1ST GROUP WIN. O-Coolmore,Westerberg,Merriebelle Stables; B-Merriebelle Stables & Orpendale/Chelston/Wynatt (KY); T-Aidan O'Brien; J-Ryan Moore. €72,000. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $86,135. *1/2 to Tenebrism (Caravaggio), Ch. 2yo Filly-Ire, Eng & Eur, G1SW-Eng, $262,880. Werk Nick Rating: B+. Click for the eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree.
2–Badb (Ire), 128, f, 2, Footstepsinthesand (GB)–Belong (Ire), by Fastnet Rock (Aus).
1ST BLACK TYPE, 1ST GROUP BLACK TYPE. O/B-Mrs Ann Marie O'Brien (IRE); T-Donnacha O'Brien. €24,000.
3–Matilda Picotte (Ire), 128, f, 2, Sioux Nation–Hallie's Comet (Ire), by One Cool Cat.
1ST BLACK TYPE, 1ST GROUP BLACK TYPE. O-Matilda & Kilmichael Racing Partnership; B-Mighty Universe Ltd (IRE); T-Kieran Cotter. €12,000.
Margins: 3/4, 3/4, HF. Odds: 0.67, 25.00, 18.00.
Also Ran: Zarinsk (GB), It's Showtime Baby (GB), Papilio (Ire), Comhra (Ire). Click for the free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree.

. Race replay. 

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Progressive Jackpot Odds and Probabilities

Calculating odds and probabilities for classic slot machine games with 3 reels with 10 symbols on each reel is simplicity itself. You simply multiply the chances of hitting the correct symbol on each real times the chances of hitting it on the other 2 reels. The formula looks like this in fact:

1/10 X 1/10 X 1/10 = 1/1000

A brief explanation: if there are 10 possible symbols on each reel, then the chances of hitting 1 of those 10 is 1/10. The chances of hitting that same symbol on all 3 reels is the product of the chance of hitting it on each reel.

A casino makes its money by having payouts that aren’t equivalent to the true odds of hitting the jackpot. In a case where you have a 1 in 1000 chance of hitting a jackpot, if you paid out 999 to 1 or 998 to 1, the difference in the payout versus the actual odds would be your resulting profit.

But progressive jackpots are sometimes tremendous. Sometimes you can even find progressive jackpots of $1 million or more. In order to accomplish this, slot machine manufacturers had to become programmers, because realistically, a mechanical slot machine was limited to 3 or 4 reels with 20 or so symbols on each reel. A mechanical slot machine’s reels are actual strips of metal, and having more than 20 symbols on each of them made them too large to actually operate the machine.

But with a random number generator program, a casino can set up “virtual reels” with an unlimited number of symbols on each. They can also set up multiple reels. Since the odds of hitting the jackpot become much smaller, the amount of the jackpot can become much larger.

Here’s what the odds of hitting the jackpot are on a 3 reel machine with 30 symbols, and for a 5 reel machine with 30 symbols:

1/30 X 1/30 X 1/30 = 1/27,000

1/30 X 1/30 X 1/30 X 1/30 X 1/30 = 1/810,000

If the odds of hitting the jackpot are 1 in 810,000, you could easily have a payout of $500,000 or even $600,000 and still maintain a solidly profitable slot game.

Since progressive jackpots grow constantly until someone hits the jackpot, you could theoretically make a positive expectation bet on a slot machine game, IF the jackpot were large enough. In the above example, if the jackpot were $810,001, you’d be making a positive expectation bet.

The problem is that the slot machine manufacturers don’t make it that easy. They use algorithms in their random number generator software that set up a % payout, so it’s unknowable to a player what the dollar amount on the jackpot must be to have a positive expectation bet.

If I only knew the settings for Cash Splash or Wow Pot, maybe I could wait until the jackpot were large enough to play, and make positive expectation bets all the time. But on the other hand, just having fun is usually positive expectation enough to suit me.

Alonso Quinonez Gets 1,000th Career Win Aboard Magic Castle At Canterbury Park

Jockey Alonso Quinonez recorded his 1,000th career victory when Magic Castle won the seventh race on Saturday at Canterbury Park in Shakopee, Minn.

Quinonez began his racing career at Louisiana Downs in 2006 and won his first race at Churchill Downs in November of that year. “When I won my first race I remember it like it was yesterday. I was so green. I didn't know what I was doing,” Quinonez said.

The 39-year-old jockey is an 11-time graded stakes winner including the Grade 1 Humana Distaff in 2008 at Churchill. Quinonez now primarily rides at Canterbury Park and Tampa Bay Downs.

“I love it here,” Quinonez said of Canterbury Park. “I'm really, really glad I won my one thousandth race here.”

The milestone win came in Quinonez's 9,378th start. His mounts have earned more than $32.8 million in purses.

Magic Castle gives Alonso Quinonez his 1,000th career win

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