June, 2022 | Horse Racing Free Tips

Another Rabbit Out Of Haggas’s Hat At Newbury

Observations on the European Racing Scene turns the spotlight on the best European races of the day, highlighting well-pedigreed horses early in their careers, horses of note returning to action and young runners that achieved notable results in the sales ring. Thursday's Observations features a Lope de Vega (Ire) colt out of a full-sister to Sea The Moon (Ger) (Sea The Stars {Ire}).

2.00 Nottingham, Novice,£7,000, 2yo, 6f18yT
THINK CLIMATE (GB) (Exceed and Excel {Aus}) is a full-brother to the G2 Mill Reef S. and G3 Greenham S.-winning sire James Garfield (Ire) who has made a bright start to his stud career. Jane Chapple-Hyam has charge of the Gredley Family's homebred, who has a high bench to aim at Sheikh Ahmed Al Maktoum's Marbaan (GB) (Oasis Dream {GB}), a relative of Ribchester (Ire) who was third in a decent maiden at Newbury last month.

3.10 Newbury, Listed, £52,000, 3yo, f, 10fT
GOLDEN LYRA (IRE) (Lope de Vega {Ire}) is the latest potential class act to emerge from William Haggas's Somerville Lodge Stables which has carried all before it in recent weeks. Carrying the renowned Sunderland Holding silks, the homebred whose dam is a full-sister to Sea the Moon (Ger) won by five lengths on her sole start at Newmarket in October and reappears in this Listed Greatwood British EBF S., or Abingdon S. as it is better known. She will be tested by some smart yardsticks including Ben and Sir Martyn Arbib's Listed Haras de Bouquetot Fillies' Trial runner-up Stay Alert (GB) (Fastnet Rock {Aus}) and Kirsten Rausing's G3 Musidora S. third Ching Shih (Ire) (Lope de Vega {Ire}).

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Equibase Analysis: We The People Should Lead Belmont Stakes Field On Merry Chase

This Saturday's 154th running of the Grade 1, $1.5 Million Belmont Stakes features the return to the track of Rich Strike, who caused millions of people to say, “What just happened?” following the running of the Kentucky Derby. The colt, which had just one win in seven races on his resume prior to the Derby, emerged as the second highest longshot in history at 80-1 odds.

His biggest competition appears to be Grade 1 Peter Pan Stakes winner We the People and Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks runner-up Nest, with both those races having previously produced Belmont Stakes winners. Creative Minister enters the race off a third of nine finish in the Grade 1 Preakness Stakes, is bred to love the mile and one-half trip, and could improve, as could Derby fifth place finisher Mo Donegal, who won the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes last fall.

Golden Glider was beaten 10 lengths when second behind We the People in the Peter Pan and hopes to improve as well. The field also includes Barber Road, who finished sixth in the Derby and one length behind Mo Donegal, as well as Preakness fifth place finisher Skippylongstocking.

Analysis and main contender:

The connections of We the People couldn't have been more pleased when he drew the ground saving rail for this year's Belmont Stakes because it should enable the talented colt to take the lead from the start and control the pace in a race in which no other horse appears to like to run on the lead in the early stages. We the People was bred to do one thing and that is to run in longer races. He debuted in February at a mile and dominated by nearly six lengths, then one month later won as easily by a similar margin.

Moving way up in class to run in the Arkansas Derby as the last chance to gain points for a start in the Kentucky Derby, We the People was very well-regarded at 2 to 1 odds but started fifth and finished seventh. Whatever transpired in that race appears to have been an aberration, because in the Peter Pan Stakes four weeks ago over the Belmont main track, We the People returned to his previous form. This time he grabbed the lead from the start and continually improved, eventually winning by 10 lengths. The 101 Equibase® Speed Figure not only was a career-best but is likely to be improved upon as the Belmont will be only his fifth career start.

Since the race, the colt put in a very strong :47.4 half-mile workout, which was ninth best of 66 on the day, and demonstrates he's holding top physical condition. Jockey Flavien Prat was aboard for the Peter Pan and rides back which is another strong factor. As a grandson of Tapit, whose progeny have had superb success in this race, and by relatively new sire Constitution, who has had two of six sons or daughters already win at the slightly shorter distance of 11 furlongs, We the People is the one to catch, and to beat.

Analysis Part Two – Second Tier Contenders

Creative Minister improved nicely in his first three races, culminating with a superb 108 effort winning an allowance race early on Kentucky Derby day. To put that in perspective, Rich Strike earned a 106 figure winning the Derby so on paper Creative Minister ran faster. Coming back on two weeks rest for the Preakness, Creative Minister managed only a mild rally and third place finish. Looking at the composition of the Belmont field, trying to determine who may be running second or third behind We the People appears to be the key to figuring out who may have a shot at upsetting the favorite.

Given that Creative Minister has been in third to fifth in the early stages of his last three races it is relatively safe to assume he will be one of those horses stalking the leader. Being a son of Creative Cause there is no doubt he will relish the distance as the sire has produced six winners from 11 horses which have won at this distance and even longer. His maternal grandfather is Tapit, and as mentioned that bloodline is a key to having the stamina for this race. As such, Creative Minister has a big shot to finish second or third and is not without a chance to win.

Nest has a chance to be the fourth filly to win the Belmont, with Rags to Riches the most recent to have done so in 2007. The filly has done little wrong in her career winning four of six and finishing second or third in the other two. Her best effort came one race before her last when winning the Ashland Stakes with authority by eight lengths. The 106 figure earned is as good as the Derby figure for Rich Strike and the field high figure of 108 earned by Creative Minister. Most importantly, Nest absolutely has the tactical speed to be second or third in the early stages of the Belmont Stakes as demonstrated in her two races this year before her runner-up effort in the Kentucky Oaks when she found herself seventh after a quarter mile and still sixth after a half-mile. With a strong will to succeed, Nest can't be ruled out as a factor in this year's Belmont Stakes.

Since by this point many will be asking “What about Rich Strike?” my answer is this colt's running style does not portend well for either the winner's historical profile or for this year's pace scenario. Rich Strike benefitted from a faster than average pace in the Derby, to put it mildly, as the first six furlongs was run in 1:10 after a :45 half mile. On average, he has been last or within three positions of last after a half-mile in his last six races. In spite of the perception the Belmont is won by closers because of its long distance which allows horse to wind up and gain momentum as the race increases, this is not the case. The race has been won primarily by horses which run the same tempo from start to finish, and so I am taking a stand against Rich Strike as a contender in this year's race.

Similarly, Mo Donegal is hard to endorse in spite of 103 and 101 figure efforts this year when winning the Wood Memorial and finishing third in the Derby.

The rest of the field, with their best representative Equibase® Speed Figures, is Barber Road (100), Golden Glider (99) and Skippylongstocking (102).

Top Win Contender:
We the People

Less Probable but also Win Contenders:
Creative Minister
Nest

Belmont Stakes presented by NYRA Bets – Grade 1
Race 11 at Belmont Park
Saturday, June 11 – Post Time 6:44 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Half
Three Years Old
Purse: $1.5 Million
T.V.: NBC 5 – 7 PM E.T.

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Michelle Hemingway Chasing First Career Stakes Win In Monmouth’s Lady’s Secret

Trainer Michelle Hemingway is hoping the third time truly is a charm when it comes to her latest foray into a stakes race.

In the midst of her first year as a trainer, and her first summer stabled at Monmouth Park, the 38-year-old Hemingway will send out Wholebodemeister in Saturday's $100,000 Lady's Secret Stakes at the Jersey Shore track.

Manor House, the first horse she started in a stakes – the Discovery Stakes on Oct. 27 at Aqueduct, one of only three starters she had last year – “grabbed a quarter” in the race. Wholebodemeister was then set to go in in the Serena's Song Stakes on May 8 at Monmouth Park but flipped in the gate and was scratched.

“Luckily, for as scary of a situation as it was, she has come out of it no worse for the wear,” said Hemingway. “If anything I think she's better.”

Wholebodemeister, a Kentucky-bred daughter of Bodemeister-Wholelottashakin by Scat Daddy, has to overcome two obstacles if she is to give Hemingway her first career stakes winner. She has been idle since her seasonal debut on March 12 at Tampa Downs because of that gate scratch and has never tried two turns. The Lady's Secret Stakes is at a mile and a sixteenth for fillies and mares, 3 and up.

“I'm not really concerned about it,” said Hemingway. “The way she trains and the way she does things she is just a very professional filly when it comes to running. She is very competitive but she is also ratable, so I don't have any concerns with two turns.”

Wholebodemeister, owned by Holly Hill Stables LLC, enters Saturday with a victory in the Grade 2 Davona Dale at Gulfstream Park in her last start as a 3-year-old last Feb. 27. She was trained by Juan Avila then.

Hemingway, a third generation trainer who took out her license last fall, had a win and a second from her three starters last year, posting her first career victory on Oct. 16.

She has her sights set on a stakes win as her next goal.

“I think there would be no words (when she wins her first stakes race),” Hemingway said. “I think if I have that first stakes winner … I tend to get slightly emotional. The tears would be coming.”

Hemingway, who has four wins from 29 starters this year – two victories from four Monmouth Park starters – has 30 horses stabled at Monmouth Park and another 31 at Thorostock Farm in Ocala, Fla.

Her father was a trainer who spent time on the New Jersey circuit at now defunct Atlantic City Racetrack and Garden State Park.

“My dad raced at Atlantic City all of my summers as a child, so I spent a lot of time there growing up,” she said.

A native of Virginia, Hemingway is a graduate of Sweet Briar College in Virginia, where she received a degree in International Equine Business and Marketing while participating on the riding team all four years.

“My dad said `you can train race horses but you have to go to college first,' ” she said.

Hemingway then spent parts of seven years as an assistant in South Africa to notable trainers Joey Ramsden, Glen Kotzen and Mike DeKock.

“I wanted to go somewhere my dad had not trained,” she said. “An opportunity opened up in South Africa. It was a great experience.”

Now Hemingway is hoping Wholebodemeister will provide another great experience.

She made her seasonal debut at Tampa Downs following a 13-month layoff, finishing a close third in a handicap race.

“I was really happy with that,” Hemingway said. “I knew we were about a race short. But the race came up and I wanted to get one in her to prepare for the Serena's Song Stakes and the Lady's Secret Stakes. She ran a very credible first race back. I was very pleased.”

Jorge Vargas Jr. has the mount aboard Wholebodemeister, who has three wins in eight career starts.

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Rich Strike Gets To ‘Play And Bounce A Little Bit’ Over Belmont Training Track

RED-TR-Racing's Grade 1 Kentucky Derby winner Rich Strike had a slight change in his daily routine on Wednesday, galloping one mile over the Belmont Park training track in preparation for Saturday's Grade 1, $1.5 million Belmont Stakes presented by NYRA Bets.

“We just wanted to let him play and bounce a little bit,” said trainer Eric Reed. “He's happy.”

Wednesday's gallop was much quieter than Tuesday when the chestnut son of Keen Ice galloped about two miles over the main track with vigor, coasting along under regular exercise rider Gabriel Lagunes.

“We wait on him for what we call a 'happy gallop,'” Reed said of the Tuesday gallop. “He'll get going and for three or four furlongs and then Gabriel gets him back in stride. He wanted more. I knew the last two days when he came off the track rearing up that we had to let him have his happy gallop.”

Reed said Rich Strike was still eager to do more after his mile gallop Wednesday.

“He came off the track and was like 'Wait a minute, that's just one [lap],'” Reed said, with a laugh. “We have to draw the line somewhere.”

Rich Strike has routinely galloped each morning for Reed and had his first two trips around Big Sandy over sloppy going. There is a chance he could encounter a wet track on Saturday with a 30 percent chance of rain in the forecast, something Reed said he should handle well.

“The only thing that concerns us is the favorite [We the People] seems to like a wet track an awful lot,” Reed said. “Our rider said he [Rich Strike] loves the mud. We'll take whatever we get.”

Rich Strike, whose running style sees him come from well off the pace, could be more forwardly placed to combat the historic trend of deep closers in the “Test of the Champion” struggling to make up ground.

“We just hope he'll leave the gate and wants to stay close early,” Reed said. “I watched about twelve Belmont Stakes last night and they don't often do it from way back. But he's happy today.”

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